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Old Thursday, April 27, 2006
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Post Iran, is the new U.S. target in the Mid-East

Iran, is the new U.S. target in the Mid-East and all signs point to an eventual attack on Iran by the U.S. or Israel military. A U.S.-Iran war or, more likely a limited U.S. attack on Iran will likely occur after the Iraq insurgency ends although a U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities may occur in 2006.

A full scale Israel - Iran war is not likely but an Israel attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is possible.

The possibility of a U.S. or Israel attack on Iran and whether such an attack would be successful is discussed in this web page. My reasons for believing a U.S. or Israel war with Iran is not advisable are also discussed.

Iran: Pros & Cons for U.S. or Israel attack on Iran and What the Targets in Iran Would Be.

There is rightful concern in the U.S., Israel, and other countries about Iran developing a nuclear weapons capability. An attack on Iran to remove the nuclear threat might be justified in some people's opinions. The problem is: What and where to attack in Iran? When Israel took out the Iraq nuclear facilities a few decades ago, there were far fewer facilities and Israel knew precisely where they were. From what I read, this is not the case with Iran and its nuclear facilities.

Iran Nuclear Facilities Much Larger than Iraq's. Iran apparently has a much larger nuclear program going than Iraq ever did and the facilities are scattered in a larger country. It would take many air strikes to wipe out all of Iran's nuclear equipment. Despite all their veiled threats in the matter, Israel does not have the capability to locate, attack, and destroy the Iranian facilities. Destroying the Iran facilities with air strikes would be a big job for even the much larger U.S. air force to carry out.

So you say, the U.S. should simply invade Iran, take over the country, locate the nuclear facilities, destroy them, and then get the hell out of Iran before an insurgency develops.

The above scenario sounds easy on paper but there are some negatives:
• A full-scale U.S.-Iran war will require a major military effort on the part of the U.S. But our finest soldiers are still tied down in Iraq. Better wait until we declare victory there.
• U.S. casualties would be high in a full-scale war with Iran. How long would the American people stand for that?
• Iran has the missile capability to stop all oil shipments from leaving the Persian Gulf. That action would quickly set off a world economic panic.
• After the Iraq debacle, a U.S. war with Iran would be treated around the world with protest - even though Iran's nuclear facilities are much more of a danger to the world than Iraq's facilities ever were.
• Other Moslem nations, e.g., Syria, Pakistan, Lebanon, Egypt, etc., might be pulled inadvertently into a U.S.- Iran war. Also, Turkey might use the diversion of a U.S. - Iran war to move into northern Iraq and take action against the Kurds whom they have problems with (not to mention the nice oil fields in northern Iraq).

There are a few positives to a U.S. attack on Iran.
1. A successful attack would end Iran's theoretical nuclear threat.
2. An attack on Iran this summer or early fall might benefit the Bush administration's deteriorated political situation just in time for the midterm elections. The American people would no-doubt rally around the flag if a war breaks out. (O.K., my cynicism about the Bush administration is showing through.)
3. If a decision were made to occupy Iran, a vast treasure trove of oil, natural gas, copper, and other raw materials could fall into U.S. hands if we decide to stay there. Of course, I'm sure our leaders thought similarly about Iraq before attacking them (remember "we will be greeted with flowers and candy"). It didn't work out in Iraq and it might not work out in Iran, either.
How Iran Will Respond to a U.S. or Israel Attack

If the U.S. launches an invasion of Iran, a full-scale U.S.-Iran war will break out. Casualties on both sides will be heavy. The same scenario holds if Israel attacks Iran even if the attack is limited. In Israel's case, Iran will bombard Israel with missiles. In the event of a full-scale U.S. attack or even a limited Israel attack, Iran will use their missiles and air force to stop oil shipments from the Persian Gulf.

On the other hand, an limited air attack by the U.S. on the nuclear facilities would be more satisfactory by both sides. Iran would certainly resist the U.S. attack and try to shoot down U.S. planes entering Iran's air space. However, a limited U.S. attack is unlikely to set off a major war with Iran. But, as discussed previously, the air attacks are unlikely to completely remove the Iran nuclear facilities which are spread over Iran.

Casualties on both sides should be low in the event of a limited air attack on Iran. That looks like a winner to me. So, expect some sort of limited air attack on Iran by the U.S. late this summer or early fall. If the attack does not occur prior to the November midterm elections, all my predictions in this matter are cancelled.

I anticipate no attack on Iran from Israel, acting alone, under any circumstances. Israel would be dreaming to think they could handle Iran in a non-nuclear clash without U.S. military aid.

Why Iran is suspicious of U.S. and Israel Intentions.

Iran's leaders do not like Israel and have stated that Israel should be wiped off the face of the earth. If Iran ever gets nuclear weapons, the weapons will be pointed at Israel although I don't believe that Iran would use the weapons even if a shooting war broke out between Israel and Iran. The Iran leaders may talk a little crazy at times but they are not stupid. Israel has hundreds of nuclear weapons and would use them if they had to.

Iran is also very wary of the U.S. After all, it was the U.S. (with British support) that instigated the overthrow of the Iran government in 1953 to protect U.S. and British oil interests. The U.S. and British put Shah Mohammad Reza Pablavi in charge of Iran. In 1979, the Ayatollah Khomeni threw the Pavlavi government out of the country and took over. The takeover of the American embassy in Tehran occurred at this time.

No, things have not gone well between the U.S. and Iran! And not all the problems have been instigated by Iran.

Resources and Military Capabilities of Iran.

Iran or Persia, as Iran was formerly known as, has a historical past that was over a thousand years old when the U.S. was born. The Iranians are a proud people and there is ever indication that an attempt is being made to resurrect the old Persian empire that fought Alexander the Great. With oil revenues pouring in and vast deposits of natural gas, copper and other materials soon to be developed, and with a substantial part of Iraq likely to fall under Iran's control, the Persian empire is on its way back.

Iran knows they are on the way up and are cocky and have been thumbing their nose at the Americans who have gotten bogged down in the much smaller and weaker country of Iraq.

Iran is twice the size of Texas with a population of 70,000,000. Their GDP is high for a developing nation. With the abundance of natural resources discussed above, Iran has an excellent chance of moving up quickly into the ranks of developed nations. Then, Iran can assume a true world leadership role for Muslim nations.

Not exactly what the Bush administration had in mind for Iran!

Defense-wise, Iran has over 1,700,000 men in their active military. This is an impressive number but remember Saddam's 'million man army'? How many of Iran's soldiers are adequately trained and equipped to fight effectively is a question mark. (Note: We should not assume that Iran's troops are of the same poor caliber as the bulk of Saddam's army was. Saddam didn't believe in squandering too much money on his troops. He kept the money for himself.)

Iran has more of an air force than Iraq did but the air force has not recovered from the ravages of the Ayatollah Khomeni who virtually destroyed the once-proud air force (trained and equipped by the U.S.) with his purges. Khomeni took irrational actions against the entire Iranian military just before Iraq attacked Iran in 1980.

In the Iran-Iraq war, despite the poor condition of the purged Iran military and despite the tens of billions of dollars of aid poured into Iraq by the U.S. and the Arabian oil-rich kingdoms, Iran was able to eke out a draw in the conflict.

A substantial, home-grown missile fleet is probably the best single weapon that Iran now has. In a U.S.-Iran war or Israel-Iran clash, Iran should be able to totally stop oil shipments from leaving the Persian Gulf. A world energy crisis would soon develop.

No, I don't see an easy answer for the developing U.S. - Iran crisis.


Summary of Iran, U.S.-Iran, and Iraq-Iran.

The war rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran is ramping up and some U.S. military action against Iran is possible in late summer or fall of 2006. Hopefully, the fighting between the two countries will be limited and a full-scale U.S. - Iran war can be avoided.

plz pray,
Sardarzada
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God is dead! God remains dead! And we have killed him! How shall we console ourselves, the most murderous of all murderers? The holiest and the mightiest that the world has hitherto possessed, has bled to death under our knife....
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