Unprecedented devastation By Khaleeq Kiani

THE devastation caused by recent floods has been unprecedented. Apart from the immediate losses of lives and public and private properties, the overall impact of the catastrophe may be enormous and far-reaching than can be currently estimated.

In the short-term, food shortage, crop inundation and emanating high food prices are likely to affect every consumer.

In the medium-term, the damage to major crops of current Kharif season – cotton, sugarcane and rice – could result in lower textile exports and higher sugar and rice prices. The good thing is that major industries like refineries, fertilisers, sugar and textile mills and power plants have remained safe except for limited losses to the power companies’ transformers, pylons and transmission lines.

In the long run, however, the recovery process would perhaps get a boost from higher needs for cement, steel and allied industries.

The initial damage assessment for relief and early recovery has been put at about $3.5 billion (about Rs300 billion). These losses are enormous when seen in the context of cumulative damages of about Rs385 billion in 14 floods since 1956.

The prices of essential food items – both perishable and non-perishable – have climbed substantially last week because of supply disruptions, inundation of fields and hoarding by stockists. As a result, potato has either disappeared from the market or is available at almost double the price.

Onion, ginger, garlic prices have also gone up significantly. So is the case with most of the fruit varieties.

Given the fact that food items have a cumulative weight of over 40 per cent in the consumer price indicator, the emerging pricing situation is anybody’s guess, more importantly because of approaching Ramazan.

According to Lt. Gen (retd) Nadeem Ahmad, the chief of National Disaster Management Authority the damage assessment reports pouring in from different agencies and ministries were being put together and would be handed over to the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank for need assessment to help them mobolise the international community for donations.

According to him, more than 50 bridges in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on main highways had been washed away or damaged due to flash floods, in addition to hundreds of schools, hospitals and other basic service facilities. Four major bridges in Gilgit-Baltistan on the Karakoram Highway have been completely damaged while reports about damages to main roads and bridges in Azad Kashmir have just started to come in.

The major challenge would not only be to ensure food supplies in these areas but to put in place temporary and folding bridges to restore transportation networks as soon as possible. It would take a couple of years to construct new bridges, broken roads, damaged electricity pylons, etc.

Except for initial relief, the donations for longer term rehabilitation and reconstruction may not be easily forthcoming in view of ‘donor fatigue,’ said another government official.

The losses to agriculture and livestock would have a spillover effect on industry and commercial activities to a great extent. This is because agriculture continues to play a central role in the national economy. Accounting for over 21 per cent of GDP, agriculture remains by far the largest employer with 45 per cent of the country’s labour force.

Its damages on the one hand, are likely to affect raw material supplies to the downstream industry that contributes to the export sector and on the other hand, reduce the appetite for industrial products like fertilisers, tractors, pesticides and other agricultural implements. And all this comes at a time when the agricultural productivity has been falling over the years.

Since the flooding has been widespread, the damages to the cotton crop may not be verifiable at this stage. Cotton being a non-food cash crop contributes significantly to foreign exchange earning. It accounts for 8.6 of the value added in agriculture and about 1.8 per cent to GDP.

Likewise, sugarcane is a major crop which is an essential item for industries like sugarmils, chipboard and paper. Its share in value added of agriculture and GDP is 3.6 and 0.8 per cent, respectively.

Another cash crop, rice is one of the main export items. It accounts for 6.4 of value added in agriculture and 1.4 per cent in GDP. High quality rice meets both domestic demand and earns $2 billion in exports per year.

Contrary to initial estimates about Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, official data now suggest that cropping in Punjab – the country’s food basket – has been worst hit by the floods. The damages in Sindh are yet to be ascertained because of delayed flooding. As of Wednesday (August 4), about 1.11 million persons have been affected by the floods in Punjab, KP and Balochistan. The data from AJK, FATA and Sindh have yet to be compiled.

In Punjab, KP and Balochistan, a total of 1,369 villages have been affected, with Punjab on the top with 1,003 villages, followed by Balochistan at 280 and KP 86 villages. On top of that about 1.1 million acres of cropped areas has been affected in these three provinces. The flood affected cropping acreage includes 1.086 million acres in Punjab and 6,500 acres each in Balochistan and KP and 886 acres in GB. Also 5,432 cattle heads have perished.

A total of about 946 persons have died in floods while 23,500 houses have been fully destroyed and another 27,260 houses partially damaged. In terms of loss of lives and housing, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa stands out on top, with 16,576 damaged houses including 761 completely destroyed. This is followed by complete destruction of 15,197 houses in Balochistan and then 14,787 houses damaged houses in Punjab, 10,232 of them completely destroyed. About 1700 houses in AJK, 1100 in Gilgit Baltistan and 1311 houses in Gilgit Baltistan have so far been reportedly destroyed.

Of the total 946 human losses, 774 people have lost their lives in KP, followed by 56 in AJK, 52 in Punjab, 34 in Fata, 24 in Balochistan and six in GB.

Learning lessons from the 2005 earthquake rehabilitation requires that the government should put in place additional stringent rehabilitation mechanism to avoid fiduciary losses.

Five years down the road, the people affected by devastating earthquake in Azad Kashmir and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are still struggling to return to a normal life.

Their slower recovery may not have significantly dented the national economy. But the current flooding devastation, being widespread across the country, may not be that easier for the economy to absorb. So is the need for more caution and quick action for rehabilitation and recovery.

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