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Old Monday, October 04, 2010
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khuram_khokhar khuram_khokhar is offline
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quite helpful ur answers r but still have risen some concerns in my mind which i think u wd like to respond...
it is about q-3 in which u hv told that China will support Iran. But dont u know about China's efforts to woo the leadership of KSA to make sure their share in Saudi oil reserves???? Second thing is Iran is also going through social changes(which was reflected during Hussain Mussvi's Green revolution campaign) and there is possibility of a big change in Iran's domestic politics in next presidential elections. And about China's string of pearls u must have knowledge about the condition of Gwader port, the attitude of newly elected Bangladeshi Govt(which is so much close to indian side), the difficulties facing the Chinese supported Prachanda who could not be able to win a vote of confidence even after 5 rounds of voting. And now there r news suggesting that China is paying as much as 10 million indian rupees for each MP to secure his vote but is failing again becz India is giving a tough time. And u said that Iran has its clout over Syria ,Lebenon, Yemen. but perhaps u r forgetting the difficulties faced by Malki in Iraq, the formation of Saad Hariri led govt in Lebenon (who is a close ally of KSA), the meeting between Bashsar Al assad and King Abdullah, the first of its kind in19 years, which brought them closer to have cordial relations between them. Moreover, according to me Iran's clout is shrinking from all the corners of the world either it is Hammas in PAlestine(which has bn restricted in Gaza stripe only and Mahmood Abbas has occupied the front seat after Gaza Strike in early 2009) or in Hizbullah in Lebenon which is losing its support in favor of Saad Hariri a staunch Arabian allied. So i dont think that Iran,in near future, would be able to acquire a strategic depth in all the parts u have mentioned as her sphere of influence.
. Abt Indian spending,,,Dear u must remember that Iranian and Indian interests in Afghanistan r very much same and Iran will never like a scenario in which India wd b forced to leave Afghanistan, as both these countries had been and r supporting the same elements in Afghanistan. Moreover, India has spent upon the different people who holds the leverage in different parts of Afghanistan so there spending will not go any where as it is not a new relation,
.Younis Qanuni is an influential leader of Afghanistan who has many warlords in his pocket and considered to be the puppet of India
.About Abdullah Abdullah. u r quite right about his political foundation and lacking of militant power. but u must remember that he has the ability, with the Amarican support, to buy the warlords in his favor. the task will be much easier for him when he will have American drone technology at his back, which will be so lethal when the Americans have no concerns about casualties or collateral damage.
. about xinjiang movement. u said that China will prefer to deal with Siraj Haqqani+ h.yar+liberal pashtuns+Pro Iran. but u must not be oblivious about the fact that Siraj Haqqani and pro Iran forces are not at the same line and they have many ethnic and sectarian chasms which will emerge soon after the departure of foreign power.
. who will provide a guarntee to Russia aout her concerns when all the players are fighting for the insurance of their interests.
.if there is going to be a new civil war in Afghanistan then how can Iran get benefit from Afghanistan when it is also having a very pathetic economy and a volatile domestic political front.
. And about ur query regarding ''how many American nationals wants to be in Afghanistan after the end game" u should remember the pshcy of Republican's mind set who against the announcement of the date of withdrawal from Afghanistan by Obama. So what will they do when they come into power is not a rocket science.
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