Regional strategy needed
By Shahid Javed Burki
Tuesday, 21 Dec, 2010
OF the 190 or so countries that participated in the recently concluded climate talks at Cancun, those of South Asia arrived without the benefit of having first worked on a regional strategy.
And yet there are many problems associated with global warming that will need to be addressed by a close collaboration among the countries of mainland South Asia — Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan.
Regional cooperation is needed in a number of areas. These include compilation of data in order to guide the making of public policy. Research in subjects that are of particular interest to the region such as the development of crops that can withstand drought would have great consequence for the parts of the region that are likely to face water scarcity. It will be increasingly necessary to regulate the flow of water in the rivers that the countries in the area share. Reducing atmospheric pollution will need common standards and regulatory systems.
It is no longer just scientific speculation that the changes in weather patterns will cause havoc in many parts of the world. A recent study by Nasa suggests that the devastating floods that brought so much misery to many areas of Pakistan in the summer of 2010 resulted from global warming. There will be many more such weather-related events. But Pakistan is not the only country affected in South Asia.
The Indian National Centre for Ocean Services based in Hyderabad has estimated that the average global sea level rose by 1.8 millimetres a year between 1950 and 2000 but the rate of increase went up to 3.3 millimetres from 1993 and 2005. There were further increases in 2005-09. A rise in the sea level in the Bay of Bengal will inundate coastal areas and displace millions of people who will find it difficult to find living space for themselves in the already overcrowded Bangladesh. This will result in the forced migration to the highlands of neighbouring east India causing tensions between the two neighbours unless they make a joint effort to mitigate the effects of climate change.
Melting of the glaciers in the Himalayas will initially cause a significant increase in the flow of water in the many large rivers in the South Asian subcontinent that have their sources in these mountains. Once large chunks of the glacier cover have disappeared, there will be precipitous declines in the amount of water in these rivers. This will have a profound impact on the parts of India and Pakistan that rely on irrigation for sustaining agriculture. Science Daily
The security of food availability in South Asia is dependent mainly on the weather. A recent report in stated that “the South Asian summer monsoon — critical to agriculture in Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan — could be weakened due to rising temperatures in the future”. A Purdue University research group found that climate change could “influence monsoon dynamics and cause less summer precipitation, a delay in the start of monsoon season and longer breaks between the rainy periods. …With extensive research and adequate technology, the people of South Asia have the potential to learn how to guard their land and crops from the weather changes lying ahead”.
Increases in population in the South Asian countries and growing incomes in most of them would increase the demand for electricity and other forms of power in a region that is already seriously affected by brownouts. To meet this demand the South Asians will want to burn the fuels that cause atmospheric pollution. The other way would be to build a system of pipelines and electricity grids to bring energy from the energy-surplus countries of the Middle East and Central Asia. However, for that to happen, the South Asians will need to develop confidence that supplies would not be disrupted for political reasons.
In sum, South Asia is faced with a number of problems that are the result of global warming. Some of these can only be handled if the countries in the region work together to handle the situation they face. That said, it is unfortunate that the region has not developed a regional approach to the problems that have manifested themselves and will do so with even greater force in the years to come.
In the Cancun climate conference, South Asia did not present itself as a region but participated as individual countries representing their very narrow interests. India was the most active country from South Asia at Cancun. However, its interests as projected at the conference were not regional but related to its own concerns as a rapidly growing economy in need of producing energy from coal and other atmosphere-polluting sources. Like Beijing, New Delhi did not want the international community to adopt a binding treaty that would work as a constraint for it to achieve its projected rate of economic growth. This objective was achieved by both countries.
There is agreement among experts that Cancun succeeded in establishing a new way of approaching climate change. Rather than moving towards the adoption of a mega-international treaty designed to achieve enforceable objectives, a more prudent approach would be to take small steps to realise less ambitious targets. Some of these baby steps will need to be taken by the South Asian nations working together to reach common goals. The next climate meeting will be in South Africa. The countries on the South Asian mainland could begin preparing for that meeting by defining a regional agenda for which they will need foreign financial and technical assistance.
The writer is chairman of the Lahore-based Institute of Public Policy, a former finance minister of Pakistan and former vice president of the World Bank.