March 30, 2012
Walter Rodgers

1. No military coup d’etat

Despite a weak coalition civilian government, there has been no coup d’état. Shuja Nawaz of the Atlantic Council notes the military has “held back over the last four years, [and is] now gradually stepping back” from the day-to-day political arena.

2. Resurgent judiciary

A resurgent judiciary in Pakistan has emerged as a potent force. In 2007, 2008, and 2009 it played a critical role in driving Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the military dictator, from office. In a country where millions are serfs and villeins and humans are occasionally sold like chattel, the Supreme Court increasingly offers a venue for redress of grievances.
Mr. Nawaz observes, “The Supreme Court is now being seen as a great opportunity for the people of Pakistan to get a voice.”

3. A more moderate Islam

There is even a budding moderating trend on Pakistan’s religious landscape. Hassan Abbas, another Pakistani analyst, recently commented that “there is a renewed effort across Pakistan among … [Muslim] clerics to challenge Al Qaeda and the Taliban.” It manifests itself in a reassertion of a more moderate Islam that preaches that suicide bombings are un-Islamic.

4. Normalization with India

Pakistan’s generals, who have thrived for decades by promoting a perceived threat from India, now seem to realize the greater threat is internal terrorism, not to mention the violent secessionist movement in the province of Baluchistan.

Professor Abbas observed, “Even the military has signed on to the reality of normalization with India because [if] you normalize with India then the Army can deal with the internal militancy.”

5. Growth of news and social media outlets

The proliferation of broadcast media outlets coupled with an explosion of social media like Facebook are further reshaping the landscape. Now everyone is becoming part of the political process, challenging politicians and government institutions, including the Army.

6. A push for ‘good governance’

The entry of Imran Khan, the national cricket hero, into the political election melee could well meet a genuine public craving for change. Ultimately Mr. Khan’s new political movement could even challenge the stagnant two-party system.
But Moeed Yusuf, a Pakistani journalist, says hope hinges on what he calls “good governance”: the ability of the central government to deliver water, guarantee electricity, and develop civil society so that violence – rape and murder – is not the norm. Without this political stability, democracy in Pakistan remains impermanent at best.

Source: Christian Science Monitor