Global Warming

The warnings about global warming have been extremely clear for a long time. We are facing a global climate crisis. It is deepening. We are entering a period of consequences.
(Al Gore)

Global warming is when the earth heats up (the temperature rises). It happens when greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, water vapor, nitrous oxide, and methane) trap heat and light from the sun in the earth’s atmosphere, which increases the temperature. This hurts many people, animals, and plants. Many cannot take the change, so they die.

Explaination:-

Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its related effects. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. Warming of theclimate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel. These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries.
Climate model projections are summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.5 to 1.9 °C (2.7 to 3.4 °F) for their lowest emissions scenarioand 3.4 to 6.1 °C (6.1 to 11 °F) for their highest. The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.
An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and a probable expansion ofsubtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events including heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall events,species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional changes is uncertain. In a 4 °C world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.
Proposed responses to global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or reflect incoming solar radiation back to space. The main international mitigation effort is the Kyoto Protocol, which seeks to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic interference". As of May 2010, 192 states had ratified the protocol. The only members of the UNFCCC that were asked to sign the treaty but have not yet ratified it are the USA and Afghanistan.


Major contributors of the greenhouse gasses(Causes):

[B][B]1. Since the beginning of industrial revolution atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have increased nearly 30%, methane concentration more than double, NOx concentrations have risen to about 15%. These gasses have enhanced the heat-trapping capability of earth’s atmosphere.
2. The main reason of the increase in concentration of CO2 in last 150 years is the combustion of fossil fuels and other human activities.
3. Increased agriculture, deforestation, landfills, industrial production and minning also contribute a significant share of emissions.
4. The level of CO2 enhanced from 210ppm to 360 ppm in last 150 years.
5. N2O is 6-8% contributor of the total; green house effect.
6. Increased use of aerosols and air coolants have raise the amount of chlorofluorocarbons, which contributes 24% of the total green house effect.
7. Oxides of sulfur, which are obtained by burning fuel in the engines, are also a potential hazard.
8. Due to high levels of CFC’s the ozone layer which is a protective covering of the earth is depleting and a hole has been observed in it on the arctic region. This depleted ozone also increases the influx of solar light specially UV rays.

Some global indications and implications of rise in temperature(Effects):


1. The snow covers in the northern hemisphere and floating ice in the Arctic Ocean have been decreased significantly.
2. Globally sea level has risen 4-8 inches over the past century.
3. Worldwide precipitation over land has increased by about one percent.
4. Scientists expect that the average global surface temperature could raise 1-4.50C in the next 50 years and 2.2-100F in the next century with significant regional climatic changes.
5. Evaporation will increase as climate will warm up, which will increase average global precipitation.
6. Soil moisture is likely to decline in many regions and intense rainstorms are likely to become more frequent.
7. Sea levels are likely to rise in most parts of the world.
8. Year 2008 was the hottest year on record.
9. Due to adverse climatic conditions wild life is becoming extinct.


Impact on Pakistan:


1. Pakistan produces less than 0.4% of the green house gasses which are the major contributors of global warming.
2. Yet, it is the 12th country most at risk from the effects of global warming.
3. Karachi and twelve other mega-cities of Asia has been declared as Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) ‘hotspots’ by the UN environment agency as soot levels in these cities comprise ten per cent of the total mass of all man-made particles.
A three-kilometer-thick ‘brown cloud’ of man-made pollution, which stretches from the Arabian Peninsula to China to the western Pacific Ocean, is making Asian cities darker, speeding up the melting of Himalayan glaciers and impacting human health, says the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) in a regional assessment report with focus on Asia. In addition to Karachi, the UNEP’s new publication points out Bangkok, Beijing, Cairo, Dhaka, Kolkata, Lagos, Mumbai, New Delhi, Seoul, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tehran as being ABC ‘hotspots’.


Impact on global economy:


“If you asked me to name the three scariest threats facing the human race, I would give the same answer that most people would: nuclear war, global warming and Windows.”- Dave Barry

One widely publicized report on potential economic impact is the Stern Review, written by Sir Nicholas Stern. It suggests that extreme weather might reduce global gross domestic product by up to one percent, and that in a worst-case scenario global per capita consumption could fall by the equivalent of 20 percent.


Politics

Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent "dangerous" human interference of the climate system. As is stated in the Convention, this requires that GHG concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion.
The Framework Convention was agreed in 1992, but since then, global emissions have risen. During negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nations representing 133
developing nations) pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions. This was justified on the basis that: the developed world's emissions had contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere; per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs. This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention, which entered into legal effect in 2005.
In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expire in 2012. US President George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy."
At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord. Parties associated with the Accord (140 countries, as of November 2010) aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C. A preliminary assessment published in November 2010 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggests a possible "emissions gap" between the voluntary pledges made in the Accord and the emissions cuts necessary to have a "likely" (greater than 66% probability) chance of meeting the 2 °C objective. The UNEP assessment takes the 2 °C objective as being measured against the pre-industrial global mean temperature level. To having a likely chance of meeting the 2 °C objective, assessed studies generally indicated the need for global emissions to peak before 2020, with substantial declines in emissions thereafter.
The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of 1.5 °C.


Pragmatic solutions to overcome this catastrophic change:


“We are about half a century away from being ecologically and economically bankrupt because of global warming” stated Andrew Simms while demanding Kyoto tax on U.S.

1. Mitigation of global warming is accomplished through reductions in the rate of anthropogenic greenhouse gas release.
2. Many environmental groups encourage individual action against global warming, as well as community and regional actions. Others have suggested a quota on worldwide fossil fuel production, citing a direct link between fossil fuel production and CO2 emissions.
3. There has also been business action on climate change, including efforts to improve energy efficiency and limited moves towards use of alternative fuels.
4. In January 2005 the European Union introduced its European Union Emission Trading Scheme, through which companies in conjunction with government agree to cap their emissions or to purchase credits from those below their allowances.
5. Australia announced its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in 2008.
6. United States President Barack Obama has announced plans to introduce an economy-wide cap and trade scheme.


Conclusion:


Political and public debate continues regarding climate change, and what actions (if any) to take in response. The available options are mitigation to reduce further emissions; adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively, geoengineering to reverse global warming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

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