The future of Pak-US relations
May 31st, 2012
The visit of ISI Director-General Zaheerul Islam to the US may or may not have been postponed due to “pressing commitments” at home, as claimed by a military spokesman, but there is no doubt that the delay will be seen as a snub by the Americans. Specifically, the postponement sends the signal that the military is yet to forgive the US for the Salala raid. As important as the issue may be, it should not hold the far larger matter of the Pakistan-US alliance hostage. We have already protested the Salala raid by blocking Nato supplies for six months. Further antagonising the US will not make the point any more forcefully and will only defer vital cooperation on fighting militants.
But if the ISI is to make the first conciliatory step in the form of its chief agreeing to go to Washington, then the US will also have to reciprocate. It is unfortunate that the US did not apologise for the Salala raid, since it was at fault there. The US should also immediately release the over $1 billion in Coalition Support Funds it is withholding from Pakistan. As the junior member of this fractious relationship, the ISI may have to make the first move, but it should at least be confident that the US will meet it halfway. Repairing the trust between the two sides will take both time and patience.
Meanwhile, the government, which technically should be making all the decisions, should be allowed to take the lead for now. It has repeatedly signalled its willingness to work with and compromise with the US. Pakistan’s attendance at the Nato Chicago conference and negotiations over reopening Nato’s supply routes went a long way towards normalising relations. The ISI chief’s refusal to meet with his American counterparts may halt that progress. That would neither be beneficial for a military that is reliant on the US for its financing nor for the Americans who need an ally in the region, no matter how shaky the relations. The time for posturing on both sides is over. Only through constant meetings and dialogue will trust between them increase.
Change in Balochistan?
May 31st, 2012
Suddenly, there seems to be some wind of change blowing in the otherwise morbid and strife-ridden province of Balochistan. The sense of awareness that the crisis there can no longer be ignored is a welcome change on the part of the establishment. The 15-point declaration following a conference convened by the Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA) and also remarks by the Supreme Court on events in Balochistan seems to have jolted politicians into a new sense of awakening. Perhaps, it is the regular references to the events of 1971 and those that preceded the break-up of the country that scared them into action and ended the state of inertia. Whatever the reasons though, the realisation has come as a positive development.
At a meeting chaired by the prime minister and attended by top military and civil officials — including General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Chief Minister Balochistan Nawab Aslam Raisani and other key players in the affairs of the province — it was decided that the Frontier Corps (FC) would be placed directly under the control of the chief minister of Balochistan, allowing the provincial government to best use it to maintain law and order. The FC, so far falling under military control, has been repeatedly held responsible for the ‘picking up’ of people in the province. We will need to see if the measures taken now can rein it in. In addition, following the SCBA Conference declaration which strongly emphasised a need for a political and not a military solution in Balochistan, a six-member committee comprising three representatives each from the centre and the province is to be set up to initiate a process of dialogue with Baloch dissidents. Funds for Balochistan, the rights package announced for the province and other issues including jobs for Baloch youth were also discussed.
This is an important step forward. But we will still need to see what follows next and how many of the measures discussed will be implemented; most crucially, it remains to be seen if the mistrust in the province can be broken down. If this is to happen, patience and caution will be required. The anger and the perceptions of injustice in Balochistan have festered for a long time. Such sentiments will take time and trust to heal.
Massacre in Syria
May 31st, 2012
Difficult though it may be to figure out exactly what should be done in Syria, it is clear that whatever has been done until now has failed. In the worst massacre of the 14-month uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the government militias were accused of killing over 100 people in the town of Houla, one-third of whom were children. The world at large is ready to take action against Assad, since claims of sovereignty do not give him carte blanche to kill his own citizens. The main sticking point so far has been Russia, which is allied to Assad and has been one of Syria’s biggest arms suppliers. Russia, through its use of the veto power, has stymied any chances of the United Nations sending in a multinational force to oust Assad.
But now there are signs of a shift. In its first condemnation of Assad’s massacre of civilians, Russia joined the rest of the UN Security Council to denounce the carnage in Houla. The Russian foreign minister contradicted Assad’s claim that “terrorists” were behind the attack and said that there was no doubt that the regime’s militia was responsible. So far, the only credible peace plan has come from former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. It calls on Syrian forces to observe a ceasefire, release political prisoners and allow freedom of movement and association.
It has not taken long for Assad to disregard Annan’s peace plan and it is hardly pessimistic to say that he never intended on following it anyway. Assad is lashing out against his own citizens because they no longer see him as their legitimate ruler. The world is duty-bound to ensure that the wishes of the Syrian people translate into reality. A military solution to Assad’s tyranny is not the ideal scenario but if it comes to that then the world has to be ready. There is a need to cobble together as broad an alliance as possible so that any action against Syria is not discredited as an American or Western plot.