Hello,i have just gathered few of the impotant topics likely to come in 2007 css. here i share these with u. this is a collection of dawn opinions . this the effort of mine for those who aspire their future in best shape.good luck for 2007.
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Implications of Cheney’s Mideast tour
By Maqbool Ahmed Bhatty
RATHER than moving towards a resolution, the crises in Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan have become further complicated. US Vice-President Dick Cheney recently toured the Middle East as American military build-up proceeded in the same manner as it did before the pre-emptive attack on Iraq in 2003.

The UN Security Council is likely to consider a second resolution on Iran’s defiance of the first one that called for a cessation of uranium enrichment activities. Though Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has underlined the US commitment to a diplomatic solution, Vice-President Cheney insists all options remain on the table. This scenario can be viewed as an elaborate exercise to build up pressure on Iran, but the regional situation appears to be spinning out of control as neo-con influence appears to be dominant once again.

Israel is again resorting to strong-arm tactics, as evident from the occupation of Nablus and the resumption of repressive measures against militants. Meanwhile, there has been hardly any effort to build on the Makkah agreement, brokered by Saudi Arabia, between the warring Palestinian factions.

Cheney’s tour of the region was aimed at reviving the assertive response to the 9/11 terrorist attack. Despite the growing domestic disapproval of the Iraq war, undertaken by President Bush and the neocons to dominate a strategic and resource-rich region, and signs of unpopularity within the region, the US hawks want to demonstrate their resolve to defeat terrorism and militant manifestations of Islam.

If one remains focused on the Middle East and takes note that the land of Palestine that has witnessed conflict and confrontation for nearly six decades is sacred to all three revealed religions, Judaism, Christianity and Islam, one is somewhat discouraged by this approach.

Tragedy, bloodshed and suffering have come to pass despite the existence of the UN. As Israel came on the map through a resolution of the UN, that was pushed through by its main backer, the US, and was then built into the most powerful country in the region, the world body was manipulated in a manner contrary to its principles and the purposes of its charter. Terrorism emerged as the balance of power was overwhelmingly with those who usurped the rights of the native population.

Perhaps 9/11 was the ultimate form of protest against injustice. As injustice, both political and economic, persists, the weak and deprived of the world are driven to despair that can take the form of suicide or terrorism. Our planet is getting overpopulated, so that many regions suffer from lack or essentials. An excess of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is producing global warming that requires a collective response.

The Middle East region has been in the “arch of crisis” since the Second World War. The creation of Israel by collusion between Britain and the US gave birth to one trouble spot that shows little sign of return to normalcy as the Jewish state, with total US support, seeks to dominate the region. The large number of mini-states and sheikhdoms created in the region have remained a chessboard of power polities on account of their strategic location and rich oil reserves.

While Europe largely stabilised after the two World Wars, the scene of economic and political contention shifted to Asia. Even the focus of Cold War rivalry shifted eastwards with proxy wars fought in Vietnam and Afghanistan.

Some other disputes, left to fester by departing colonial powers notably that over Kashmir, led to conflict and confrontation between the two largest states in South Asia, namely India and Pakistan. The fact that both became overtly nuclear in 1998 drove them towards a peace process that also figured in the global trends unleashed by the 9/11 events.

Since the start of 2007, President Bush has undertaken to announce a revised strategy in Iraq, including fresh initiatives in the region as a whole. But the fundamental US aims and military commitments have not changed. The one significant departure is that the Iraqi army and police are being given a greater role, but the projected increase in the number of US troops in Iraq by about 21,500 and the appointment of new US field commanders means there is no target date for a withdrawal which will presumably begin in a phased manner after victory is achieved.

The US is already showing two different faces in the region, one stressing diplomacy, that is represented by Condoleezza Rice, and the other that underlines continuity of the post-9/11 thrust for dominating the region, reflected in the tour by Dick Cheney. The Republican contender for the 2008 presidential election, Senator John McCain, supports the augmentation of US forces to achieve victory, whereas the Democrat candidates seek to exploit the disenchantment of US public opinion over the Iraq venture.

The Iraqi government is showing readiness to interact with all its neighbours, including Iran and Syria, which have indicated their willingness to cooperate with the regime in Baghdad. US policy is showing a divided approach. Israel, whose influence can be a decisive factor in decision-making in Washington, insists upon treating Syria and Iran as hostile, and much of the talk of a US pre-emptive strike is being fuelled by Tel Aviv.

However, Iran and Syria are not allies of Al Qaeda, and the US has agreed to attend a meeting of neighbours of Iraq called by the government in Baghdad. This meeting will discuss security issues. But, at the same time, the threat of military pre-emption is being maintained, with a second US aircraft carrier strengthening Washington’s offensive capacity. Even Condoleezza Rice insists that Iran must stop its uranium enrichment or face additional sanctions.

Even in Palestine the US will not back the roadmap solution as long as Hamas keeps refusing to recognise Israel, while Israel keeps attacking Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.

The US attitude towards the sectarian issue has been ambivalent. As Saddam Hussein’s power base was in the Sunni triangle, the US had received support from Kurds in the north and the majority Shias in the south following its occupation. However, US support to Israel alienated many Shias, and the risk of a Shia-dominated Iraq succumbing to Iranian influence was realised.

The Sunni rulers of many Arab countries, notably Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt, have also expressed alarm over the rising influence of Shia powers. The US is therefore inclined to capitalise on the sectarian divide, and Pakistan appears to be playing a role to activate the OIC though it opposes use of force against Iran.

The resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan has created problems for Pakistan which is blamed for “not doing enough” to stop incursions launched from its territory. Cheney even threatened to intervene. With terrorist incidents taking place in Pakistan and the heartland of the Muslim world involved in a dangerous game involving the US and Nato, we have to tread carefully and also safeguard our national interests.

National unity and support for sovereignty and independence remain a necessity. Although Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad occasionally issues provocative statements, his recent visit to Saudi Arabia was well-timed to prevent the sectarian card being played against the Muslim world. It is an important neighbour with which we should maintain close contact.

We have been active diplomatically, as evident from tours by the president and prime minister, and the OIC foreign ministers’ meeting we hosted in Islamabad. Our strategic as well as economic interests demand that peace and stability prevail in the Middle East as well as in South Asia.


Moves on energy chessboard

By Syed Mohibullah Shah

THE much talked-about Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project has finally turned the corner. In February, Iran and Pakistan resolved the most difficult issue of pricing in Tehran, and soon, thereafter, India indicated its agreement also. This has opened the door to follow-up developments.

Much of the credit for this breakthrough goes to Iran for attractively pricing the gas for the project. By reducing it by 30 per cent from its earlier price, Iran has sweetened the deal for both countries. For Pakistan, the project has added attraction. Apart from meeting its growing energy needs, Pakistan would also pick up from India about $1.5 in transit fee for every million British thermal units transported through pipeline to that country.

The seven-billion-dollar, 2,100-kilometre IPI pipeline would turn out to be the largest cross-border investment in this part of the world and an important milestone in building regional energy security for South Asia. But the moves on the energy chessboard are also generating several cross currents and it would be a litmus test of our economic diplomacy to protect and implement this important project.

For over 100 years since the oil industry was born in and around the Caspian Sea region, its consumption markets have largely remained in industrialised Europe and the US. With production and consumption being so far apart, the oil industry developed a worldwide market and infrastructure for linking oil production with consumption.

But the markets in the 21st century have come closer to the producers and there is a marked difference in the games now being played out in the energy world. Much of Middle Eastern oil is committed through long-term arrangements to countries that became industrialised early. But as Asia industrialises, its rising energy demands are bringing Central Asia into the centre of an intensified competition. Energy security is occupying centre-stage not only for the old but also the newly industrialising countries.

Accessing Central Asia’s vast energy resources has been a frustrating exercise for many years. Central Asia has remained landlocked, geographically and politically. Bounded on the north by the Arctic Circle and on the east and west by a vast expanse of land distances, its attractive opening was always through outlets on the south – through Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The attractiveness of the southern route can be established from one simple fact: both producers and consumers of energy through this route stand to benefit from $1-2 per barrel of oil supplied. For gas consumers, this equation becomes even more favourable. But apart from the one window of opportunity that opened for Pakistan in 1995-6 and was then quickly shut off, accessing Central Asian energy across the southern route has remained blocked by US opposition to Iran and the violence in Afghanistan.

Energy pipelines from Central Asia to Europe and beyond through Russian and Turkish ports and to Japan and China across the steppes, cannot meet the rising demands of both markets. The pressure on opening the southern route through Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan has been increasing. How long can the energy-starved world wait for conditions in Afghanistan to become stable and peaceful to access Central Asian energy through that country? Increasingly, both, consumers and producers are getting favourably inclined towards accessing these enormous energy resources through Iran.
During its meeting last year in Shanghai, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) had also discussed the idea of an “energy club” of its members – since between themselves and along with the observer states of Iran, Pakistan and India, the SCO constitutes a regional market of large energy producers and consumers. The Soviet-era oil and gas pipeline system linking with Central Asia has been added, upgraded and expanded to the European markets and beyond. Since the early 1990s, China has also embarked upon laying an extensive network of pipelines for taking that energy eastwards for meeting the needs of its fast-paced industrialisation.
The northern loop of an Asian energy system has thus been taking shape. But the southern route in this energy infrastructure had still been missing. It is against this background, that the strategic importance of the IPI project becomes obvious. It is the first project that links Central Asia with South Asia through the umbilical cord of energy passing through Iran. It is tempting to give a place to the IPI in the strategic moves being made on the global energy chessboard. If Pakistan also becomes a transit route for Iranian-Central Asian oil and gas resources flowing into China, it would finally connect the southern and northern loops of an Asian energy system. If that happens, it would be a tectonic move on the energy chessboard.
Similarly, Nato leaders also discussed in their summit meeting in Latvia last November the formation of a “gas Nato” geared towards safeguarding the energy security of Nato members. European concerns were heightened after disputes cropped up over the pricing of Russian gas supplies to Ukraine and the consequent depletion in pipeline supplies onwards to West European markets. Some big energy companies from the US and Europe that are already pumping energy from the Caspian basin and Kazakhstan are also looking towards developing southern routes for transporting Central Asian energy through the Gulf and Arabian sea ports to markets worldwide.

Pakistan would be experiencing first-hand what it feels like to lie in one of the centres of gravity of these strategic moves on the energy chessboard. There would be many a slip between the cup and the lip to stall or spoil opportunities along the way -- from confidence-building to consortium-building to technical, operational, project management and other important issues as the IPI pipeline moves ahead to become a reality on the ground.

The most important consideration for our strategists and decision-makers should be to keep our routes open for accessing Central Asian energy. Despite various forecasts coming out of foreign think-tanks, predicting the results of moves being made on the energy chessboard is mere fantasising. It is not in Pakistan’s interest to have its western borders prone to violence and instabilities of one kind or the other. The conditions in Afghanistan are not totally in Pakistan’s control but improving these in Balochistan is entirely in our hands; and the price of a peaceful resolution of disputes is miniscule compared to the costs of locking ourselves out of the scenario of energy sources for future development.

This is no idle concern since a similar opportunity of an oil pipeline from Iran to Pakistan in the early 1980s was allowed to fall through because Gen Zia did not want to do business with Islamic Iran while fighting his version of jihad in Afghanistan. The external environment today isn’t all that different from what it was a quarter of a century back, but repeated assertions by the Pakistani leadership raise hopes that this time our diplomacy will demonstrate the skills and maturity needed for promoting our energy security needs while maintaining a friendship with the US.

If the IPI project is successfully implemented, it promises to be the harbinger of many other cross-border projects that have been kept on hold by investors. The biggest beneficiary would be none other than Pakistan but it would also test the mettle of our economic diplomacy.

The writer is a former head of Board of Investment and federal secretary.








Russia’s re-emergence
By Javid Husain
IF there was any doubt about Russia’s recovery from the strategic dislocation that it had suffered as a result of the Soviet Union’s defeat in the cold war and its disintegration, it was removed by the denunciation of Washington’s unilateralist and militarist approach by President Vladimir Putin at the international security conference at Munich on February 10
Criticising the US for its attempt to force its will on the world, Putin observed, “The US has overstepped the limits in all spheres — economic, political and humanitarian — and has imposed itself on other states…. One-sided illegitimate action hasn’t solved a single problem and has become a generator of many human tragedies, a source of tension…. This is very dangerous. No one feels secure because nobody can seek safety behind the stonewall of international law.”

This is, indeed, heady stuff in marked contrast with the rather submissive style of the statements by Russian leaders during the 1990s when Russia was passing through a difficult transitional period in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, the Russian leader’s complaint about Washington’s unilateralist policies was not entirely new. There were earlier signs during the past few years that Moscow was losing patience with the US tendency to try to impose its will on others in pursuance of its global hegemonic agenda.
The establishment of Sino-Russian strategic partnership was one consequence of this development as both China and Russia sought closer ties to safeguard their security interests in the face of the US expansionism. On July 2, 2005, the join communiqué issued in Moscow after the summit meeting between Presidents Hu Jintao and Putin denounced “the aspiration for monopoly and domination in international affairs”. In August 2005, the two countries launched their largest joint military exercise in modern history to send a political signal to Washington.

The outburst by the Russian President at Munich was the latest manifestation of Moscow’s growing unhappiness over US policy of unilateralism and Nato’s expansion close to Russian borders. In his Munich speech Putin also criticised US plans to set up missile defence systems in Poland and the Czech Republic. Earlier, at a press conference in Moscow on February 1, Putin had vowed that Russia’s response to these plans will be “asymmetrical but highly effective”.

Russian officials had rejected Washington’s position that the missile defence systems would guard against potential attacks from Iran and North Korea as missile trajectories from these two countries did not go over Poland and the Czech Republic.


Putin’s visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan, which followed his Munich address, reflected Moscow’s determination to play once again an active role in the Middle East, thus posing a challenge to the virtual US stranglehold over the region. Significantly, the Russian president offered to help Saudi Arabia develop nuclear energy and pledged to enhance cooperation with the Islamic world. He also announced plans to launch six information satellites for Saudi Arabia.
In Qatar, he mooted the idea of a gas cartel on the lines of Opec. After his talks with Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas on February 13, Putin accused the US of using Russia as a “threat” to secure funds from Congress for its military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, and for its anti-missile programme in Europe. He recalled that a weak earlier US Defence Secretary Robert Gates had characterised Russia as a potential military threat to the US. He further stressed that “For Russia, the Middle East is strategically important.”

On February 19, General Nikolai Solovtsov, head of the Russian strategic missile force, threatened that if the governments of Poland and the Czech Republic allowed the US to site a missile defence system, “the (Russian) strategic missile force will be able to aim at these installations.” He also underscored that if a political decision was taken to withdraw from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, Russia could easily restart production of medium-range missiles.

This writer had the personal experience of witnessing the newly assertive tone of the Russian statements at Manila on February 6 at the second meeting of the ARF Experts and Eminent Persons (ARF EEP’s) where the Russian representative ruled out the use of force for settling the issue of North Korea’s nuclear programme and urged that too much pressure should not be applied on Pyongyang in finding a negotiated settlement.

However, he did acknowledge the gravity of the North Korean nuclear proliferation issue for security in Northeast Asia thus accepting the need for the dismantling of North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme.(The agreement with North Korea to that effect was arrived at a few days later).

The strengthening of the Russian economy is perhaps the most important factor responsible for the increased confidence that Moscow is showing in its dealings with other major powers. Undoubtedly, the rise in oil prices has played a significant role in the revival of the Russian economy. With GDP growth rate of 5.9 per cent, foreign exchange reserves exceeding $250 billion, GDP estimated to be $ 1.14 trillion, the highest gas reserves in the world, proven oil reserves of 60 billion barrels and well-known capabilities in defence production, Russia is well-poised to flex its muscles in international politics.


Moscow feels that the West led by the US has taken advantage of its weakness in the post-Cold War period to expand its power and influence at Russia’s expence, especially in Eastern Europe. It is also apprehensive of the inroads that the US and Nato have made into the Caucasus and Central Asia. Predictably, therefore, Russia and China called upon the US in 2005, from the forum of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, to close its military bases in Central Asia. Thus, President Putin’s outburst against the US at Munich was merely the latest manifestation, at the highest level, of Moscow’s growing disquiet over Washington’s expansionist and unilateral tendencies.

What is worth noting is that Russia’s growing economic strength and technological prowess provide it with the wherewithal to demonstrate in practical terms its uneasiness over the US designs and pursue an independent foreign policy worthy of a great power as was evident from the outcome of Putin’s recent visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan. The signal which is coming loud and clear from Moscow is that it is no longer prepared to be pushed around by the US.

While the re-emergence of an assertive Russia is an important development with far-reaching strategic implications for the world order, it needs to be seen in proper perspective to assess its true significance. The fact of the matter is that Russia lags far behind the United States in all indicators of economic and military power. The US, with a GDP of $ 13.98 trillion, GDP per head of $ 46,280 and unmatched military capabilities, enjoys overwhelming superiority over Russia. The Russian economy still suffers from serious structural flaws. Besides, there is also a question mark about the stability of the Russian political system.
Therefore, while Moscow is pursuing an increasingly assertive role in international politics, its ability to pose single-handedly a serious challenge to the US global domination is severely circumscribed. The same is true of China despite the phenomenal growth that its economy has witnessed since 1980, raising its GDP to $ 3.01 trillion. However, the two, by combining their military and economic capabilities, can be a formidable adversary for the US. This is the driving force behind the growing strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing.
It all also leads one to the conclusion that the days of a unipolar world are numbered if not already over. This was the message sent by the foreign ministers of Russia, China and India at their meeting in New Delhi on February 14. The emerging world order will be marked by multipolarity with several centres of power, including the US, China, European Union, Japan, India, Brazil and ASEAN.
There is no denying the fact that it is critically important for Pakistan to maintain its friendship with the US. However, in view of the emerging multipolar world, it must avoid putting all its eggs in the American basket, thus, limiting its foreign policy options in the future. Instead, it must expand the manoeuvrability of its foreign policy by developing relations with the different emerging centres of power in a carefully balanced manner.
The weakest link in our foreign policy right now is Pakistan’s relationship with Russia which suffered in the past because of its linkages with the West during the Cold War and the support to the Afghan jihad against the Soviet occupation. There is an urgent need for Islamabad to build bridges of understanding with Moscow to overcome the mistrust and bitterness of the past and usher in a new era of friendship and cooperation with that great power.

There would be obstacles and occasional hiccups on the way but it must not be deterred by them especially as Russia has expressed the desire to enhance cooperation with the Islamic world. This strategic imperative is dictated not only by the growing power and strength of Russia but also by the demands of Pakistan’s friendship with China, which is the linchpin of its foreign policy, in view of the fast developing Sino-Russian strategic partnership.

The moot point is whether Pakistan leadership has the courage and the sagacity to pursue such an independent and balanced policy which, above all, requires a government enjoying domestic political legitimacy and popular support. Going by the past experience, Pakistan’s well-known pre-disposition in favour of the US, its heavy dependence on the US in political, economic and military fields, the known inability of its policymakers to see further than their noses and the questions about the legitimacy of the present government, it remains to be seen whether it would be able to chart its foreign policy on those lines.


Energy Crisis and Pakistan

An energy crisis is any great shortfall (or price rise) in the supply of energy resources to an economy. It usually refers to the shortage of oil and additionally to electricity or other natural resources.
The crisis often has effects on the rest of the economy, with many recessions being caused by an energy crisis in some form. In particular, the production costs of electricity rise, which raises manufacturing costs.
For the consumer, the price of gasoline (petrol) and diesel for cars and other vehicles rises, leading to reduced consumer confidence and spending, higher transportation costs and general price rising.

Future and alternative sources of energy
Some experts argue that the world is heading towards a global energy crisis due to a decline in the availability of cheap oil and recommend a decreasing dependency on fossil fuel. This has led to increasing interest in alternate power/fuel research such as fuel cell technology, hydrogen fuel, biomethanol, biodiesel, Karrick process, solar energy, tidal energy and wind energy. To date, only hydroelectricity and nuclear power have been significant alternatives to fossil fuel (see Future energy development), with big ecological problems (residues and water spending). Hydrogen gas is currently produced at a net energy loss from natural gas, which is also experiencing declining production in North America and elsewhere. When not produced from natural gas, hydrogen still needs another source of energy to create it, also at a loss during the process. This has led to hydrogen being regarded as a 'carrier' of energy rather than a 'source'.
There have been alarming predictions by groups such as the Club of Rome that the world would run out of oil in the late 20th century. Although technology has made oil extraction more efficient, the world is having to struggle to provide oil by using increasingly costly and less productive methods such as deep sea drilling, and developing environmentally sensitive areas such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The world's population continues to grow at a quarter of a million people per day, increasing the consumption of energy. The per capita energy consumption of China, India and other developing nations continues to increase as the people living in these countries adopt western lifestyles. At present a small part of the world's population consumes a large part of its resources, with the United States and its population of 296 million people consuming more oil than China with its population of 1.3 billion people.
Efficiency mechanisms such as Negawatt power can provide significantly increased supply. It is a term used to describe the trading of increased efficiency, using consumption efficiency to increase available market supply rather than by increasing plant generation capacity.

Energy Crisis In Pakistan.


Energy resources have depleted! Whatever resources are available are simply too expensive to buy or already acquired by countries which had planned and acted long time ago. Delayed efforts in the exploration sector have not been able to find sufficient amounts of energy resources. Nations of the world which have their own reserves are not supplying energy resources anymore; only the old contracts made decades ago are active. Airplanes, trains, cars, motorbikes, buses and trucks, all modes of transportation are coming to a stand still. Many industries have closed due to insufficient power supply. Price of oil has gone above the ceiling. At domestic level, alternate methods like solar, biogas and other methods are being tried for mere survival.

The above is a likely scenario of Pakistan and around the globe after 25 years. A pessimistic view, but realistic enough to think about and plan for the future. But are we doing anything about it? Lets have a look at the current energy situation of Pakistan and the world.
Pakistan’s economy is performing at a very high note with GDP growing at an exceptional rate, touching 8.35% in 2004-05.In its history of 58 years, there has been only a few golden years where the economy grew above 7%. This year official expectations are that GDP growth rate will be around 6.5 – 7.0%. For the coming years, the government is targeting GDP growth rate above 6%. With economy growing at such a pace, the energy requirements are likely to increase with a similar rate. For 2004-05, Pakistan’s energy consumption touched 55.5 MTOE (Million Tons of Oil Equivalent).

The energy consumption is expected to grow at double digit if the overall economy sustains the targeted GDP growth rate of 6% by the government. Pakistan’s energy requirements are expected to double in the next few years, and our energy requirements by 2015 is likely to cross 120MTOE. By 2030, the nation’s requirement will be 7 times the current requirement reaching 361MTOE. Pakistan’s energy requirements are fulfilled with more than 80% of energy resources through imports.

On the other hand, international oil prices have not only broken all records but are touching new highs, with every news directly or indirectly affecting the black gold industry. Moreover, speculators all around the world expect oil prices to touch $100 per barrel in medium term. With concerns over Iran’s nuclear program, terrorist issues in Nigeria and high economic growth in China & India and their ever rising energy requirements, oil prices don’t see any another way but to shoot upwards.
What is the government doing to ensure a sustainable supply of energy resources for economic growth? What strategic steps are being taken to acquire energy resources in future? Is private sector willing to invest in Pakistan’s oil industry? What are the incentives being offered to the foreign players to continue working in the exploration sector? What hurdles are stopping other big players around the world to enter Pakistan? What is the role of gas distribution companies so far? Are the citizens of Pakistan being robbed by energy giants with ever rising utility bills? What should be the real price of petroleum, kerosene and other oil products in Pakistan? When will the nation have “load shedding free” electric supply? Have we been able to make long term contracts with the countries to provide uninterrupted supply of energy resources? Will the government be able to provide enough sources to the citizens for a sustainable economic growth? Have we lost the race for acquiring maximum energy resources for future survival?





Pakistan: Power crisis feared by 2007


The country may plunge into energy crisis by the year 2007 due to rising electricity demand which enters into double digit figure following increasing sale of electrical and electronic appliances on lease finance, it is reliably learnt Thursday.
“The country may face energy crisis by the year 2007 following healthy growth of 13 per cent in electricity demand during the last quarter, which will erode surplus production in absence of commissioning of any new power generation project during this financial year,” informed sources told The Nation.
As per Pakistan Economic Survey 2003-04, electricity consumption has increased by 8.6 per cent during first three-quarter of last fiscal year. However, a top level WAPDA official maintained that electricity demand surged up to 13 per cent during last quarter.
The survey said household sector has been the largest consumer of electricity accounting for 44.2 per cent of total electricity consumption followed by industries 31.1 per cent, agriculture 14.3 per cent, other government sector 7.4 per cent, commercial 5.5 per cent and street light 0.7 per cent.
Keeping in view the past trend and the future development, WAPDA has also revised its load forecast to eight per cent per annum as against previous estimates of five per cent on average. Even the revised load forecast has also failed all assessments due to which Authority has left no other option but to start load management this year, which may convert into scheduled loadshedding over a period of two year, sources maintained
.The country needs a quantum jump in electricity generation in medium-term scenario to revert the possibilities of loadshedding in future due to shrinking gap between demand and supply of electricity at peak hours.
According to an official report, the gap between firm supply and peak hours demand has already been shrunk to three digit (440 MW) during this fiscal and will slip into negative columns next year (-441 MW) and further intensify to (-1,457 MW) during the financial year 2006-07.
The report maintained that the difference between firm supply and peak demand is estimated at 5,529 MW by the year 2009-10 when firm electricity supply will stand at 15,055 MW against peak demand of 20,584 MW.

Chairman WAPDA Tariq Hamid at a Press conference early this year warned about the possible energy crisis and stressed the need for ‘quantum jump’ in power generation. The experts say it could only be possible through a mega project of hydropower generation, otherwise the gap between firm supply and peak demand will remain on the rise.


They said the power generation projects, which are due to commission in coming years are of low capacity and will not be able to exceed the surging demand of the electricity.

They say no power generation project will commission during this fiscal year and the total installed capacity of electricity generation will remain 19,478 MW to meet 15,082 MW firm supply and 14,642 MW peak demand.

Giving details of projects, the sources said Malakand-lll (81MW), Pehur (18MW) and combined cycle power plant at Faisalabad (450MW) are planned to be commissioned during the year 2007. Mangla Dam raising project would also add 150 MW capacity to the national grid by June 2007. Besides this, Khan Khwar (72MW), Allai Khwar (121MW), Duber Khwar (130MW) and Kayal Khwar (130MW) are expected to be completed in 2008 along with Golan Gol (106MW) and Jinnah (96MW). Moreover, Matiltan (84MW), New Bong Escape (79MW) and Rajdhani (132MW) are expected by 2009 while Taunsa (120MW) is likely to be completed by 2010.
Sources say WAPDA has also planned to install a high efficiency combined cycle power plant at Baloki (450MW), which is expected to be completed by 2010. In addition of these, power plant 1 & 2 of 300 MW each at Thar Coal with the assistance of China are also planned for commissioning in 2009, sources said. Moreover, efforts are also under way with China National Nuclear Corporation for the construction of a third nuclear power plant with a gross capacity of 325 MW at Chashma, they added.

When contacted, a WAPDA official said there is no power shortage in the country at present as the Authority still has over 1,000 MW surplus electricity. However, he admitted that the shortage may occur in the year 2007 and onward and said the Authority will utilise all options including running of IPPs plant at full capacity to avert any possible crisis.

About the system augmentation to bring down line losses, the official said the Authority would spend Rs 3.5 billion on augmentation of distribution lines this fiscal while another Rs 5 billion will be consumed on transmission lines. “We have been negotiating Rs 9 billion loan with a consortium of local banks to upgrade and augment the power transmission system,” he disclosed. The official further said that five new transmission lines of 220-KV would be installed by the end of 2004, that would ensure smooth supply to the consumers. He expressed full trust on present transmission and distribution system and said it could easily sustain the load of total installed power generation in the country