View Single Post
  #19  
Old Tuesday, November 08, 2005
Adil Memon's Avatar
Adil Memon Adil Memon is offline
37th Common
Medal of Appreciation: Awarded to appreciate member's contribution on forum. (Academic and professional achievements do not make you eligible for this medal) - Issue reason: CSP Medal: Awarded to those Members of the forum who are serving CSP Officers - Issue reason: CE 2008 - Merit 120
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Gujranwala
Posts: 1,025
Thanks: 334
Thanked 680 Times in 280 Posts
Adil Memon is just really niceAdil Memon is just really niceAdil Memon is just really niceAdil Memon is just really nice
Default

Salaam,

Brother I really appreciate the endeavours you’re taking to prove your stance. I have deleted all those paragraphs on which I agree/compromise to curtail the size of this reply.

My replies will be in BOLD font.

The water availability is indeed unreliable. The highest annual water availability in the recorded history (from 1922 todate) was 187 MAF (million acre feet) in the year 1959-60 as against the minimum of 96 MAF in the year 2001-2002, which averages to 141 MAF, however, from 1975 to date the water discharge on average is 145 MAF, please note that this do not include the highest available water in recorded history, but includes the lowest annual water availability.

Thank you very much for bringing in this detail here. This is the crux of contention. We were needlessly arguing over the technical specification when I was supposed to clear this point in the very beginning.

I agree with your data about the highest and lowest flow. But your average seems to be a little perplexing. According to the calculation from my statistics (The Politics of Managing Water – Kaiser Bengali, pp. 184-185) the average annual flow stands 137MAF. (Note: This figure includes the super floods that occur every 5th year). In all its calculations of availability of water, WAPDA has insisted on using average flow i.e. 137.27MAF to justify Kalabagh Dam. However this is a transitory position. And a big project like Kalabagh can’t be based on transitory data.

The internationally accepted legal percept by which water availability should be calculated is explained by the United States Supreme Court, which has had to adjudicate on some extremely complex inter-state water disputes. In the case Wyoming v. Colorado (1922), the State of Wyoming sought to prevent the State of Colorado and two Colorado corporations from diverting the waters of the inter-state River Laramie. When the State of Colorado presented annual average flow figures as the measure of available supply of water, the US Supreme Court pronounced thus: “To be available in a practical sense, the supply must be fairly continuous and dependable…. Crops cannot be grown on expectations of average flows which do not come, nor on recollections of unusual flows which have passed down the stream prior in years. Only when the water is actually applied does the soil respond.” For the purpose of computation, the United States Supreme Court neither adopted the average over a long period nor the minimum, but the lowest average of any two successive years, excluding years of exceptionally low flow.

Now if this case is applied to Kalabagh Dam, the US Supreme Court ruling would have been worded thus: ‘To be available in a practical sense, the supply must be fairly continuous and dependable…. Storage dams can not be filled on expectations of average flows which do not come, nor on recollections of unusual flows which have passed down the stream in previous years.’ The criteria for filling the exorbitantly costly 8-10 billion dollar Kalabagh Dam should, therefore, be the same as elucidated by the US Supreme Court, i.e. the lowest average of any two successive years, excluding the years of exceptionally low flow.

Right in front of my eyes I have a table of Annual Western River Inflows which you can get in (The Politics of Managing Water – edited by Kaiser Bengali, pp. 184-185). I have calculated on the above mentioned criteria the legal figure which stands at 124.4 MAF. Now this is very close to the “4 out of 5” figure 123.59 MAF calculated by excluding the flooding years. Thus I will be holding the “four out of five” years calculation method as the standard one.

Now before attempting to calculate the available water for Kalabagh, it would be pertinent to introduce the elements of system losses due to percolation in the riverbeds between the rim stations and various barrages. Rim stations are points in the river where measurements regarding the water available during Kharif and Rabi are taken by officially designated authorities. The rim stations for Indus, Jhelum and Chenab are situated at Kalabagh, Mangla and Marala respectively. In this respect, annual average system losses are estimated at 15.19 MAF. The arithmetic of water availability can be attempted as:

Water requirement: 139.54 MAF
(Details)
Allocation to four provinces: 114.35 MAF (taking your figure)
System Losses: 15.19 MAF
Release below Kotri for outflow to sea: 10 MAF

Water available: 123.59 MAF

The balance to store in Kalabagh Dam is -15.95 MAF. That means we already lack that amount of water.


Uses of that alleged 35MAF of Water downstream Kotri:
1) Stop sea intrusion
2) Mangrove forests cultivation (the forests that are out of the reach of Sea)
3) Agriculture downstream kotri
4) Drinking and sanitation water for 120000 people (200 villages).

The figure won’t be that 35MAF in near future. I have already discussed this point in my essay.


Dear we get extra electricity generation only for small period of time i.e. in high water available months, whereas in remaining months we are in short of electricity that’s why we face load shedding. As per studies, the cost of one unit of hydel power is 8-10 times less than cost of other power generating resources like gas or coal. Further, we are boosting industrial sector, which indeed require cheap source of energy and that is only hydel power.


Capital costs escalate once social displacement and environmental degradation are taken into view.

The energy generated won’t be cheap due to lack of concessional funding.

Let me tell you something here. Economic growths are always boosted at the cost of nature. And this is what India and China are presently doing. Today they are the world’s biggest polluting countries. Recently, when I had the pleasure to watch “BBC News Extra” which was based on different aspects of Indian economy and development, I saw the country’s best environmentalist raising concerns about nature.

By stating all this I do not mean that I am against Economic Growth. All I want to say is that we must work on efficiency at the first priority.


Dear the majority of part where the dam is proposed comprise of barren hilly or sub-hilly tracts and these areas are sparsely populated so perhaps nothing to be worried. The overalls cost involved in rehabilitation of people had been mentioned in the feasibility, and it would definitely be revised when the dam is to be finalized as such the people would get the land price of that day.


I appreciate your response here. Leaving aside everything else, you didn’t touch the most important point is that of lack of trust. You did not mention what should NWFP do if she does not trust Central Government for its safeguards and rehabilitation plan. The people of Tarbela were humiliated – do you have anything to say about this?

Bhai, imagine if I build a dam in your house and pay you the full price of your house and land. Will you leave that place?


Hmmm brother the problem of distribution of water, perhaps first time rose in 1945, any how, the maximum storage level of Tarbela at one time is 9 MAF it does not mean that whole year the dam stores 9 MAF, and the share increased for the Sindh is 9 MAF for the whole year, nd specifically during the odd months i.e. Rabi season the Sindh got more water. As such the share of water increased.

Water flow is quite low in Rabi so surely there is no storage during those months. The water is stored during the months of Kharif only and delivered during the months of Rabi. I don’t know how is it possible for a dam that stores 9MAF in Kharif and delivers that quantity in Rabi to increase the share of Sindh by its total quantity doing nothing for the other provinces.


During the year 1999-2000, the total irrigated area, using all sources available in the Punjab, was of the order of 13.8 million hectares. This included 11 million hectares in the canal commands. The private tubewells and wells irrigated 6.8 million acres during the same period.

During the year 1999-2000, the total irrigated area, using all sources in Sindh, was of the order of 3.52 million hectares. This included 2.39 million hectares of irrigated land in the canal commands. The private tubewells and wells irrigated 0.13million hectares during the same period.

However, during the kharif periods from 1990-2000, Punjab used 34.3 MAF annually, while Sindh and Balochistan used 31.4 MAF and NWFP used 2.35 MAF. Look in Punjab about 11 million hectares was irrigated from 34 MAF and in Sindh about 2.39 million hectares was irrigated from appx 29 MAF. Hmmmmm



Why don’t you say it clearly that you don’t want to release any water to Sindh (hahahaha)? I am knowledgeless about your statistics. However, I wonder how could a province that used to feed the whole sub-continent during the days of British, yield so less today. You know better that Sindh’s land has been/is being degraded due to lack of water. The water share of Sindh is not only used for irrigation but also for drinking and other purposes. Punjab has more than 350,000 tubewells through which it draws 40MAF annually. It has a huge rainfall compared to Sindh. I don’t really understand what are you trying to prove here ?

Shaheen Rafi Khan, SPDI, Islamabad, states in (The Managing of Water Politics – edited by Kaiser Bengali, pp. 176-177) that we do not have extra land for extensive cultivation.

My Uncle, an officer of Revenue Dept. states that according to law we can not cultivate more than 30% of the cultivable land.

And Shaheen may be right. We might have reached the limit.



Dear me too agreed IUCN data as mentioned at H (iv) above, but if the 27 MAF is required indeed at that case we do have 12 MAF (average) easily and for Kalabagh we need maximum of 6 MAF.

Let me tell you another thing, in Rabi we only have 4-6 MAF going to sea, and for sustained movement of fresh water we also need a reservoir from where fresh water could be sent to sea for good environment.

Ok!! Now release that 27 MAF from your alleged 39 MAF into the sea. 12 MAF remain. Now read my above calculation regarding water availability. Do you think we will have water to store in kalabagh in future?


At present only one species is in Indus Delta and that is salt tolerant.

I explored more about this issue. Actually the problem is about reach of water. The sea water can’t reach some areas to cultivate mangrove forests. They can be reached by the downstream water only.


Hmmmm dear if the Kalabagh dam is a lollypop by Musharaf, than why the project remained in proposals since 1953, perhaps at that Musharaf would be doing something in his school.

The dam hasn’t been built yet. Musharraf has given a green signal for the construction due to the above mentioned reason. You will find me pathetic if you read this with closed eyes .

And the ruling elite in the Central Government (since the inception of Pakistan) has always been replete with Punjabis. NO MORE COMMENTS!

But you still did not tell me why are people against Kalabagh Dam if they really have no problems? What don’t they fight over other dams? You know that we don’t have any provincial harmony. Why are Sindh, Balochistan and NWFP altogether against the dam?

I want to know why?


As regards Kalabagh, numerous studies have been carried out both by foreign and Pakistani consultants like Chas T. Main, Hazra, Pieter Lieftnick (WB), Montreal Engg. Company (MECO), A.C.E, Wapda etc.

I mentioned the names of technicians of Pakistan that backed the opposition behind the politicians. The people and institutions you have mentioned, don’t run Pakistan. It’s the politicians that rule the government. When politicians of three out of four provinces have given a NO vote on the dam it should have been dropped forthwith.

Hmmmm regarding Chenab-Jehlum link canal, haa haaa, dear do you know

- the upper Chenab link Canal was first to be constructed and that was in 1912, to flow water from Chenab to Ravi
- the upper Jehlum –Chenab link canals was constructed in 1915 to give water to chenab from jehlum and at that time there was no problem between upper and lower riparian

As regards Greater Thal Canal, it has been explained at H (iii) above.

Sorry… actually I mis-spelled the word. It was Chasma not Chenab. Do you have to say anything about it now. All my above mentioned assertions are accepted country-wide. Let me see how do you refute them?

If you are really anxious to know about Punjab’s dealing with Sindh in the past please refer “Sindh-Punjab Water Dispute” – Rasool Bux Palijo (RBS). The book is written over 110+ pages, you will be able to finish it within a day or two. It’s a nice book.


At present we do have three reservoirs 1) Tarbella 2) Mangla 3) Chashma, and these are utilized at their full storage and this is the reason that Mangla raising project is in the way.

Haa haaa, Bhai let Musharraf to consider the official business instead of having a big bath tub

Difference in sources/statistics. Leave it right here!

(Fun part)
Bhai just imagine Musharraf and his wife swimming in Kalabagh Dam. How would it look like ?


1) hmmm, acha jee, but if we let about 25 MAF to flow to sea we could have 12-14 MAF easily
I don’t agree that we have any surplus water.

2) sure Munda dam, Mirani Dam Gomal Zam Dam etc. these al r small dam projects, but remember small dams cannot be considered as compared to big dam

We don’t have the resources to manage large dams.

As regards cost involved in the project, please note that the total expenditure incurred by the Government of Pakistan, up to June 2000, for the proposed Kalabagh Dam Project is Rs. 1,216.5 million. However, as per studies in 2000 ,when built the average annual benefit of Dam would be :

Annual Power Benefits : Rs.25.5 billion
Annual Irrigation Benefits : Rs.3.5 billion
Annual Flood alleviation benefits : Rs.0.7 billion

Total : 29.7 billion



Abrar Kazi, Water expert, stands the cost of Kalabagh at 8-10 billion dollars, which is nearly 480 – 600 BILLION Rupees. I don’t know about your source.

Dams only yield benefits if they are filled with water. Empty dams don’t serve any purpose. Kalabagh Dam is not a flood-control dam according to Fatehullah Khan.


3) hmmm who says that the dam would have 20 years lifetime, don’t be kidding

I learnt that Kalabagh dam is situated at a site where it will be silted/sedimented quite fast. And it’s overall lifetime will be only 20 years. My knowledge is all based on media. It may be fabricated so I won’t be consistent on this assessment.


5) dear it can easily control flood like which ruined many lands in the lowers Punjab nd upper sindh this year, the kalabagh can decrease the devastation

Fatehullah Khan says Kalabagh Dam is not a flood-control dam.

6) who says that IRSA has disapproved the dam

[Khuda ki Kassam ] I read this somewhere. I will disclose the source as soon as I recall it.

7) don’t know about it (EIA STUDY)

Don’t say that you don’t know. Because to know, is your responsibility .

8) who experts Engr Fatehullah Khan, plz read the H (iii) above, many international reputed agencies has carried out studies and approved the project

I did not say Experts are opposed to Kalabagh Dam. I said, ‘mega projects’. Tell me if you disagree with me here?


9) We must understand that we can't produce water. We should try to conserve nature to keep the supply running.

9) sure we should conserve water, nd it can only be conserved when we store it, which can only be done through dams

We don’t have water to conserve. By conserving nature I meant maintaining a steady flow into the sea so that the natural cycle works fine.

You know the Baglihar Dam Issue. Be informed that India is totally justified to build that dam on Chenab since it has some share in the western rivers according to the Indus Basin Treaty 1960. Actually Pakistan fears that India would encroach upon the rights of her water share after building the dam. And the condition is exactly the same inside the country. Sindh has the same reservations against Punjab. It’s disheartening to know that Pakistan can't bear injustice at the hands of an outsider but is unresponsive to the cries of one of its dear province

(vii)
----
dear plz go through the contents of Indus Water Treaty 1960, India is not justified to build dam like Baglihar this is the reason that Salal Dam project was also stopped

Baglihar Dam:
Though I stay consistent at my words, but I will avoid any confrontation on this matter right now. Leave it for future.

In the interim, you can come up with the clauses/sections of the IBT which are being violated.


Dear brother, this is the worst mistake you would have committed ever (regarding Katzara Dam)

Haha… you don’t have any objections to Kalabagh Dam but you’re strictly opposed to Katzara which will store six times more quantity of water within the same cost. This dam will efficiently control FLOODS which Kalabagh won’t. If you think Kalabagh dam will be replete with water why don’t we store the same 6.1 MAF in Katzara.

Darling.. every dam destroys the eco-system. Kalabagh also does that. You care about the endangered species of animals but not about those 100,000+ humans that will be dislocated (to be outspoken, humiliated).

Nothing is beyond the reach of India. Bhasha is also proposed near Katzara. I don’t think that dams are proposed without considering these things. Is Pakistan beyond the reach of India .

You are afraid of the conflict within Northern Areas, but you don’t care if the country is being disintegrated after building Kalabagh Dam.

Well brother, in the end I have only one point to say. We don’t have enough water to store. Building dams will only increase debt.

Clincher: Build Kalabagh but after achieving consensus.

I hope the discussion has been enough on this topic. Let’s drop it! Big authorities of our country have failed to reach a consensus so surely that won’t be possible for you and me too.

If it’s not possible for you… I unconditionally surrender! Go build it .

Regards,
Adil Memon

(Please don’t ever get offended. I am just like your younger brother.)

Agar koi baat buri laggi ho to ghareeb samajh kar mauf kar dena.
__________________
"The race is not over because I haven't won yet."

Adil Memon
Police Service of Pakistan (P.S.P)
37th Common Training Program
Reply With Quote