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Old Friday, December 21, 2012
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Default US-Israel Nexus and Iran

US-Israel Nexus and Iran

According to analysts on the Middle East, if Iran goes nuclear, Israel would no longer be able to continue its ambiguous nuclear policy and will have to declare its nuclear weapons.

Muslim World Paradise turned Inferno
Saturday, September 01, 2012

Also, it may ignite a nuclear warfare in the region which will ultimately pose existential threat to Israel. Despite the close alliance between the US and Israel, there appears a dissonance on Iran's nuclear programme. Israeli leadership dismissed the chances that sanctions would now deter Iran or convince it to give up its nuclear programme. It called for stringent actions against Iran by the US, that may include a military or aerial strike.

In March this year, in his address to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, US President Barack Obama, while referring to Iran's ambitions to acquire nuclear technology said: “No Israeli government can tolerate a nuclear weapon in the hands of a regime…that threatens to wipe Israel off the map.... A nuclear-armed Iran is completely counter to Israel's security interests. But it is also counter to the national security interests of the United States.” He also quoted former President of the US, Theodore Roosevelt: “Speak softly but carry a big stick”. This was not only an unequivocal proclamation of the US present stance on Iran but can also be viewed as a warning to the country against its hard-line anti-US and anti-Israel stance.

Primarily, the likely acquisition of uranium enrichment technology or nuclear weapon technology by Iran, in particular, is what rang alarms in the US and Israel about a decade ago. President of Islamic Republic of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has been explicitly following an anti-US agenda. Adopting austerity measures at home, the leader is determined to face every economic challenge posed by the US or the international community in the wake of its missile technology and civilian nuclear technology programme. The cost of the sanctions against Iran is 133 million dollars per day. Although, Iran has yet not acquired “nuclear or atomic weapon”, for the US, the nuclear Iran in the Middle East, while strengthening anti-US and anti-Israel elements threatens its greater policy interests in the region. On the other hand, Israel views nuclear Iran an existential threat to the Jewish state.

The US, so far, exercised diplomatic pressure and placed economic sanctions to deter Iran from acquiring and advancing its nuclear programme and warned Iran of grave consequences if the country chose not to abandon its nuclear ambition. Also there have been vociferous reminders that the US would never settle for nuclear-armed Iran and a military attack would be the last resort. However, the recently proposed sanctions were vetoed by China once again.

Apart from nuclear issue, the influence that Iran enjoys over the Strait of Hormuz is also a cause of concern to the US now. About 20 per cent of the world oil trade is done through the Strait of Hormuz. In wake of warnings and threats of a military attack by the US last year, Iran, in turn, had threatened to block the Strait for trade. On the one hand, it alarmed the Israeli policymakers and on the other, it provoked the US to send its aircraft carriers towards the Strait.
Pakistan had been shown the big stick that Obama administration virtually carries in conformity to Roosevelt's saying and issues are yet to be settled between the two states.
The US interest in the region, however, is not limited to Iran. China and Pakistan are also correlated as the two countries enjoy greater stakes and strategic and geographical influence in southern part of Asia. Afghanistan as a matter of fact has already bowed to the US policy interests. Of late, Pakistan had been shown the big stick that Obama administration virtually carries in conformity to Roosevelt's saying and issues are yet to be settled between the two states. China while gaining greater strategic and economic leeway through Gwadar port into the Indian Ocean appears to be a potential threat to the US interests. On the other hand, Pakistan continues to pursue Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project apparently in defiance of the UN sanctions on Iran. Also, Iran continues to extend its role in Balochistan. The Iran-Pakistan cooperation and the emerging pattern of maritime politics in Indian Ocean extending to Strait of Hormuz, including China as one of the major players would be detrimental to the US ambitions. Together, this poses policy challenges to the US.

Israel on its part has been pursuing a policy of nuclear opacity since 1981 when the country had successfully obliterated Iraqi nuclear reactors. The then Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin had announced that 'Israel, under no circumstances, would allow enemy to develop weapons of mass destruction against Israel. The country would defend its citizens, in time, with all the means at its disposal.' Since then, Israel had pursued a tacit nuclear prgramme, however, Iran's nuclear ambitions posed a challenge to Israel's nuclear weapons technology. According to analysts on the Middle East, if Iran goes nuclear, Israel would no longer be able to continue its ambiguous nuclear policy and will have to declare its nuclear weapons. Also, it may ignite a nuclear warfare in the region which will ultimately pose existential threat to Israel. Despite the close alliance between the US and Israel, there appears a dissonance on Iran's nuclear programme. Israeli leadership dismissed the chances that sanctions would now deter Iran or convince it to give up its nuclear programme. It called for stringent actions against Iran by the US, that may include a military or aerial strike. Although Israel has assurances from the US of a military strike if all else fails, the country is planning to opt for a unilateral military action against Iran in self-defence.
Although Israel has assurances from the US of a military strike if all else fails, the country is planning to opt for a unilateral military action against Iran in self-defence.
Israel, reportedly has established an “Iron Dome” last year. It is a mobile missile-defence system capable of detecting and destroying short-range missiles in flight. The system made by Israel's Rafael Advanced Defence System is designed to counter rockets with ranges of up to 44 miles and provides a cover against Israel's declared enemies, Hamas and Hezbollah. Some reports suspect a possibility of a similar system being used by Israel against Iran if needed in future.

Lately, Iran tested a more accurate short-range missile capable of striking land and sea targets underscoring its capability to hit naval vessels in the Strait of Hormuz if attacked. The successful tests not only alarmed the US and Israel but apparently ignited the already tense situation. A time when election competitors of Barack Obama are proclaiming support to Israel in launching a military strike against Iran, public opinion in the US largely going against Obama's policy over Iran, it appears difficult for the Obama administration to keep “speaking softly” no matter they have been showing the big stick as well. The policy of engagement with Iran, diplomatic pressure and restraint may not appear to be working but that is the only feasible option, for a military strike against Iran would be detrimental for both the US and Israel.

*Nabiha Gul is a researcher and analyst on international affairs and an IR professional.
Email: coldpath1@gmail.com
Nabiha Gul
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