Indo-Pak Issues
Both the countries continue to suffer from mutual mistrust and their bilateral disputes remain unresolved and their cooperation circumscribed by severe restrictions and limitations.
Since independence, Pakistan-India relations have been the victim of oscillations between short-lived periods of euphoria and raised expectations followed by long intervals marked by disappointment, strains, tensions and even armed conflicts. Consequently, both the countries continue to suffer from mutual mistrust and their bilateral disputes remain unresolved and their cooperation circumscribed by severe restrictions and limitations. Here is a brief commentary on the disputes that has plagued the mutual relations of these neighbouring nuclear powers.
Kashmir
The long-standing Kashmir problem is at the heart of all the hostility and antagonism between insofar the two wars were fought mainly due to Kashmir. The 10-million Muslims of the Kashmir Valley want independence from Indian rule. Pakistan has always supported the noble cause for which Mujahideen are still shedding their blood. After Mumbai attacks, there has been complete impasse and no development was seen on this issue. However, Indian foreign secretary Nirupama Rao recently said that the Indian government has confessed that its policy of not engaging with Pakistan – post 26/11 was wrong. The year 2011 has witnessed the resumption of talks and a number of meetings have been held at secretary and minister levels. Pakistan-India semi final of the 2011 cricket World Cup has also helped proactively to diffuse the tensions.
This is not only in the interest of both countries but is of utmost importance for the whole region as well. Once the main bone of contention between India and Pakistan i.e. Kashmir is removed, then the two arch rivals and “enemies” can become friends and concentrate on socio-economic problems of their peoples within a peaceful atmosphere.
Water
After Kashmir, the most serious conflict is the water dispute. The water dispute surfaced when the Indian Punjab cut off the flow of waters in April 1948. However, through the efforts of World Bank President Mr. Eugene Black the dispute was resolved and Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960. For smooth operation of the treaty a permanent India-Pakistan Indus Commission was established.
Pakistani concern heightened in the 1990s after India began constructing a hydroelectric power project on the Chenab River in the Doda district of Jammu & Kashmir. Since the Chenab is the key tributary of the Indus, Pakistani policy-makers and political commentators feared that India could exert control over the waters. Such control could be used to weaken the Pakistani economy and livestock, or could be used to cause floods in Pakistan by the release of water during times of war.The issue of Kishanganga project and Tulbul Barrage are also important ones.
The concern is escalating because Pakistan's agricultural sector would be greatly affected by the building of dams and by the external control of the waters of several rivers that flow into Pakistan.
In February 2010, both countries started the dialogue process again and the foreign secretaries of the two countries met in New Delhi but the dialogue ended on a bitter note. Pakistan was resolute to discuss the water issue while India was adamant on discussing terrorism. The Indus Commissioners met in April to resolve this issue but nothing concrete came out. India's obdurate behaviour is the biggest hurdle in the amicable settlement of this issue.
Sir Creek
The Sir Creek is a 96 km (60 miles) strip of water in the Rann of Kutch marshlands. The Rann lies on the border between the Indian state of Gujarat and the Pakistani province of Sindh. Pakistan claims rights, in accordance with the Bombay Government Resolution of 1914, to the entire waters surrounding and fed by the creek. India, for its part, insists that it owns half of the area on the basis of the Thalweg Doctrine pertaining to international law.
In recent years, interest in the delimitation of a maritime boundary in this area has been heightened by the prospect of oil and gas being discovered offshore. Pakistan is insisting on defining the extremity of its land frontier in the Sir Creek area in a manner which will give it control over a larger EEZ. The Pakistani EEZ will be enlarged by around 250 square miles if India accepts the Green Line showing Sir Creek's eastern bank as the land boundary.
In May this year, Pakistan and India agreed to resolve the Sir Creek dispute, keeping in view the interests of both countries. During the final round of talks the focus was on developing a consensus on concluding a joint survey of Sir Creek that was decided during the Musharraf regime.
Pakistani concern heightened in the 1990s after India began constructing a hydroelectric power project on the Chenab River in the Doda district of Jammu & Kashmir.
The dispute over this estuary has hampered exploration for oil and gas and led to the detention of hundreds of fishermen from the two countries when they stray across the poorly demarcated border. Sir Creek needs to be resolved at the earliest, and it can be done if there is flexibility on the past of India.
Siachen
The Siachen conflict began in 1984 with India's Operation Meghdoot during which it wrested control of the Siachen Glacier from Pakistan and forced the Pakistanis to retreat west of the Saltoro Ridge. India established control over all of the 70 kilometres long Siachen Glacier and all of its tributary glaciers, as well as the three main passes of the Saltoro Ridge immediately west of the glacier—Sia La, Bilafond La, and Gyong La.
The Siachen Glacier is the highest battleground on earth where India and Pakistan have fought intermittently since April 13, 1984. Both countries maintain permanent military presence in the region at a height of over 6,000 metres (20,000 ft). Till now, more than 2000 people have died in this inhospitable terrain.
The conflict in Siachen stems from the incompletely demarcated territory on the map beyond the map coordinate known as NJ9842. The 1972 Simla Agreement did not clearly mention who controlled the glacier, merely stating that from the NJ9842 location the boundary would proceed "thence north to the glaciers."
India turned down a Pakistani proposal seeking the immediate demilitarisation of Siachen, at the recently held talks between the senior defence officials in New Delhi. However, the two sides again came close to striking an agreement on Siachen and Sir Creek during Pervez Musharraf's regime but political upheaval in Pakistan prevented the historic breakthrough.
Afghanistan
What makes the issue of Indian and Pakistanis actions in Afghanistan so complicated is that both parties have overriding national interests in the situation. For India, there are the issues of interest to a rising regional and global power, including access to valuable resources. Pakistan also has various strategic interests in Afghanistan which are crucial for its existence. Pakistan has seen India's rapid insertion of material support into Afghanistan as a strategic loss. Pakistan asserts that Delhi's consulates close to the Durand Line serve as hubs for aiding the Baluch insurgency. Pakistan thinks that any Indian involvement in Afghanistan is absolutely pernicious for its interests. India has spurned Pakistan's accusations and apprehensions about Indian presence but Barnett Rubin sees Pakistan's concerns over India's involvement in Afghanistan as one of its “legitimate interests.”
In this regard US role is of crucial importance especially after the drawdown announcement made by Obama. If Obama intends to solve the problems of Afghanistan, he would best take a page from his first major foreign policy paper, penned in July 2007. "I will encourage dialogue between Pakistan and India to work toward resolving their dispute over Kashmir," he wrote in Foreign Policy magazine, focusing on long-standing tensions over the contested territory that has led to two wars between the nuclear-armed nations.
Trust deficit
The absence of trust is the biggest problem between India and Pakistan and anything that addresses this “trust deficit” is helpful in the way forward. The leaders of the two countries should initiate a peace process in which they address each other's concerns including those on Jammu and Kashmir, terrorism, Siachen and Sir Creek water sharing. This is all the more important because the existing suspicions and distrust about each other have been further exacerbated by irresponsible and distorted stories, carried by sections of the media in both the countries.
The Recent Foreign minister- level talks
The foreign minister-level talks were held between India and Pakistan when Pakistani foreign minister Hina Rabbani Khar visited India in July. Both the countries agreed to keep the peace process between them going. The joint statement was issued at the end of the talks and both the ministers discussed variety of issues. They discussed Jammu and Kashmir, counter-terrorism measures, including progress in 26/11 Mumbai attacks trial in Pakistan, humanitarian issues, commercial and economic cooperation, Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project, Sir Creek, Siachen Glacier, peace and security including CBMs and promotion of friendly exchanges.
Outcome of the Talks
The one firm outcome of the talks between the two ministers was the CBMs on cross-LoC travel and trade. The frequency of Srinagar-Muzaffarabad and Poonch-Rawalkote bus services would be increased; it was decided. Another important decision was to convene separate expert groups meetings on nuclear and conventional CBMs, which has been scheduled to be held in Islamabad in September 2011.India and Pakistan expressed satisfaction on holding of meeting on issues of counter-terrorism, including progress on 26/11 Mumbai attacks
Conclusion
Both Pakistan and India need to avoid short-sighted policies for points-scoring or securing short-term gains which resulted into bede-villing their relations in the past and diverting their attention from gigantic tasks of eradicating poverty and raising the standard of living of their peoples. The steady improvement between Pakistan and India requires some further changes in the way they deal with each other. India, being the biggest country in the South Asian region must lead the way by discarding hegemonic designs in the region. The extremists in Indian politics and media should also be admonished for their arrogant and aggressive statements because as long as India continues to nurture such elements, its relations with Pakistan will remain marked by mutual mistrust, and non-cooperation. So, it is in the best interest of the whole region that both nuclear powers take all possible steps to solve all the long-standing issues between them.
Prof. Khadim Ali Khan