Pakistan is moving slowly towards a stable political system. The May 11 elections, in which the PML-N achieved a thumping victory and the PTI emerged as the second largest party in the country, has not only put a spanner in the Taliban's works, who wanted to derail the democratic system and impose their own self-defined Islam in Pakistan, but also given hope to many poor Pakistanis for a new and changed country.
However, there are also some gigantic problems, impending challenges and fears which could haunt Pakistanis in the near future.
Ten very important things, which will have a lasting imprint on the annals of Pakistan's political history, have happened in these elections.
First, the TTP has utterly failed to derail the prevailing political system in the country. It shows that the Pakistanis have rejected the TTP's self-interpreted Islam and extremism. They believe in tolerance and a democratic system.
Second, the PML-N has emerged as the leading political party, which has almost won all its seats in the Punjab. It is, now, ready to form a new government in the Centre, with Nawaz Sharif as the Prime Minister. On May 12th, Nawaz held a meeting with his party leaders about forming a new government. On May 11, Nawaz had invited all the political players to sit together and join hands with him for the betterment of the country. He said: "I forgive the opponents who abused us, for the sake of my nation, and offer them to join me for talks. After resuming the office of the prime minister, I would convene a meeting of all the political parties to get solid proposals to resolve the issues of poverty, price hike, load shedding, unemployment and other problems being faced by the country."
Third, the PTI has shown its power and won all its seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It has also emerged as the second largest party in the country. The PTI leader has welcomed the high turnout in the elections as a step forward for democracy. He also accused the PML-N of vote-rigging in Lahore and the MQM in Karachi. He said: "I congratulate the entire nation for taking part in such a massive democratic process. We are moving forward on the path of democracy. Even those people who never voted in their life came out and the entire nation is happy to see it. Now there is awareness among the people of Pakistan that their fate is in their hands. God Willing, we will issue a white paper about vote-rigging. Here is usually victory and defeat, but all the pain of this defeat evaporated after I saw the enthusiasm in the youth. I also thank our women. Never in the history of Pakistan have women come out and voted in such a big number. It is heartening to see that they have also contributed to efforts to make a new Pakistan."
To block the way of the PTI's formation of government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, while congratulating Nawaz Sharif , Maulana Fazlur Rehman has suggested that the PML-N, the JUI-F and the PPP-S can form a coalition government . The PTI has a great chance to form its government and implement its revolutionary programme in this war-torn province. If Imran gains success in implementing his programme, then the PTI will get a great boost and a chance of winning seats in other provinces in the next elections.
Fourth, the ANP has been wiped out in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and there is every chance of the party breaking into two different groups.
Fifth, the PPP has been reduced to Sindh only. Everybody knows that the PPP has alienated its supporters by shutting its eyes towards the plight of the poor and its supporters. It has supported only elite members of its party during the last five years. This policy has given a death blow to the PPP's image and manifesto. Many analysts are predicting that the PPP will never emerge as a national party again.
Sixth, the MQM has won in Karachi. All major political parties, including the PTI, are accusing the MQM of vote-rigging. The Election Commission has admitted that it has been unable to conduct free, fair and transparent elections in Karachi and has ordered re-polling in Karachi's NA-250, PS-112 and 113. Some political parties have boycotted the elections in the metropolis. On May 12, the MQM leader Altaf Hussain had given a very threatening statement about Karachi. He said if the accusations against the MQM were not stopped then the fire of Karachi would engulf the whole country. He has talked about the separation of Karachi from Pakistan. It is a very alarming statement from a leader, whose party believes in violent politics. The MQM has already been accused of wanting to create Jinnah pur in the past. This alarming statement has unmasked the real intention of the MQM's leader.
Seventh, it is very heartening that even in Balochistan, the turnout was satisfactory. It was around 30-35 per cent. Threats from the terrorists and the insurgent nationalists could not deter the people from showing their right of choice and power in selecting their leaders. There are also some reports about procedural irregularities and anomalies in the province. These irregularities and anomalies have forced the BNP-M to reject the results of the election even before they are officially declared.
Eighth, according to reports, women voters were denied their right to cast their vote in some constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Many women were mistreated by the powerful candidates' supporters and many were forced to cast their votes against their wishes in Lahore, Karachi and other urban areas of the country. The Election Commission should take notice of this dark side of the elections and offer redress.
Ninth, for the first time in the history of Pakistan, the people of Karachi have stood up to the MQM and its leadership against massive vote-rigging and harassment. In Lahore, the PTI supporters have started their own protest camp against Saad Rafique's rigging. Both protests are growing. Karachi's protest has been joined by ten parties. A protest has also been started in Rawalpindi.
The Daily Times' Muhammad Salman Khalid, says: "I'm seeing an Arab Spring-like situation developing in the country. People have risen. We may soon see violence in major cities and army deployment".
Tenth, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has congratulated Nawaz Sharif and hoped for better relations. Singh wrote on his official Twitter account, "Congratulations to Mr. Nawaz Sharif and his party for their emphatic victory in Pakistan's elections". He said he hoped to work with Sharif to chart "a new course for the relationship" between the two countries and invited him to "visit India at a mutually convenient time".
About the future effects and results of the elections, various thinkers have expressed different views.
The News writes: "Many surprises sprung by the May 11 polls will have grave repercussions for the political spectrum with the PPP confined to Sindh, the ANP facing a split and President Zardari denied his second term in office. The PML-N sweep across the Punjab, unexpected as it was in numbers, has ensured that Mian Nawaz Sharif will not need any coalition partners, except for the sake of keeping a federal face by including some PML-Functional, Jamaat-e-Islami and the JUI-F men in his cabinet. The PTI, which has done tremendously well for a new party and which could easily become the next government in KP, will have to perform the role of an effective and vibrant opposition in the new house, as Imran Khan has repeatedly promised. With men like Javed Hashmi, Sheikh Rashid and Imran Khan himself in the opposition, it would not be a cakewalk for Mian Nawaz Sharif to run the country except on clean policies conforming to the national interest and not his own party or family.
"The elections have thrown the MQM and the ANP in a serious political crisis as the MQM will either have to sit in the opposition or take a huge U-turn to support Mian Nawaz Sharif. But the initial message of the MQM chief Altaf Hussain, describing the PML-N as a Punjabi party, does not augur well for the new government-in-waiting. The repercussions for the ANP are going to be more serious as the party has almost been white-washed and there are credible reports that the Bilours will break away from the Wali Khan family-led party. Ghulam Ahmed Bilour has already hinted that his party leadership was responsible for the debacle. On a personal level, the May 11 results have also washed away all chances of President Zardari getting a second term in office... At the moment, Faryal Talpur is the front face but Makhdoon Amin Fahim has also expressed reservations over the manner the party was run by Asif Zardari. Now that the PPP has lost its political clout, it would also be interesting to see how he is treated by the judiciary and various organisations which carry out accountability, specially NAB, FIA and others. Once Imran Khan and Sheikh Rashid are in parliament, Mian Nawaz Sharif will be under a lot of pressure to complete the task of accountability that was left in abeyance because of the position President Zardari enjoyed. That situation changed on May 11".
Ahmed Rashid, a journalist, writes in the BBC news: "Mr. Sharif was twice prime minister in the 1990s and both times he made genuine efforts to make peace with India but was thwarted at every step by an aggressive and uncompromising army which eventually launched the war in Kargil in disputed Kashmir in 1999, that led to a military debacle and also a coup against his government. Mr. Sharif clearly understands that Pakistan's traditional allies in the West, immersed in a global recession, are unlikely to offer Islamabad much in the way of a bailout. However, India can play a major role in reviving Pakistan's bankrupt economy as a potential investor. This time around, the army - faced with an apparent collapse of the state - is also more amenable to the idea of improving relations with India, but army chief Gen. Pervez Kayani still baulks at the idea of Indian factories and investment taking root in Pakistan. However, Pakistan has little choice and Sharif even less so, as avenues to rescue the economy close one by one. Gen. Kayani is also due to step down at the end of the year and a new army chief may well be able to put the years of acrimony between Mr. Sharif and the army to an end.
"President Asif Ali Zardari virtually surrendered foreign policy decision-making to the army in order to stay on its right side. Mr. Sharif is unlikely to do that and will instead need to co-operate with the army in order to have an effective policy towards brokering peace in Afghanistan between the Americans, President Hamid Karzai and the Taliban leaders, who are all based in Pakistan. The peaceful withdrawal of US troops next year from Afghanistan through the Pakistani port city of Karachi, the end of the Afghan war and the survival of the regime in Kabul will all largely depend on how seriously Pakistan plays its role in forcing the Taliban to the peace table. Mr. Sharif is keen to do so - simply because he knows he will be unable to tackle Pakistan's internal crisis without peace across the border. Mr. Sharif will face a quandary with Iran as the US puts pressure on Pakistan to abide by UN-mandated sanctions on Iran imposed because of its nuclear programme. Pakistan has just signed an agreement for a critically-needed gas pipeline to be built between the two countries and Mr. Sharif will want to continue that programme as Pakistan is severely lacking in gas supplies."

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