10.07.2013 Civil-military: mistrust National security
NOW that the leaked Osama bin Laden report has been parsed over and a few new details have come to light, there is an aspect of the report worth dwelling on: the state of civil-military relations in Pakistan. The contempt with which retired Gen Pasha spoke on the record about the civilian side of the state — intelligence, law enforcement and political — will hardly appear surprising to some. But to read it in black and white drives home the chasm that still exists between the civilians and the army-led security establishment. To Mr Pasha’s credit, he did acknowledge failures in his own organisation, the ISI, and within his parent institution, the army. Yet, it is the army that drives national-security policy and, for all its protestations to the contrary, it is the army that jealously guards its pre-eminence in that domain. So, if the civilian, non-military side of the state is ever to develop the capacity to deal with security issues, attitudes in the army leadership too must change.
Unhappily, arrogance on one side and incompetence on the other still prevails in the overall civil-military relationship. The irony in Mr Pasha’s allegations against the civilian set-up was almost certainly lost on him: everything he said can be and has been said about his own institution. Sympathy for some militants, a leadership so mired in parochial interests that it cannot connect the dots between national failures and the policies from which they originate, and strategic, operational and tactical inadequacies — all of that can fairly accurately be said about the military itself. A typical, defensive reaction may be to dismiss Mr Pasha’s comments as the opinions of one, albeit senior, military official. Yet, it is reflective of an institutional mindset, of decades of training and education that has created a senior-officer corps that regards everyone else as a little less patriotic than itself. And from that absolute certainty has stemmed decades of tragic policy.
Ultimately, though, the objective of civilian control of the armed forces and of national security and foreign policy will only be realised if the civilians themselves rise to the challenge. The failings of the civilians so harshly depicted by Mr Pasha before the Abbottabad Commission are all too real. Without systemic improvement on the civilian side, the army is unlikely to ever voluntarily cede control. The alternative is some kind of state implosion from which a new national order can be crafted. But that is the nightmare scenario that is too awful to contemplate.
Lyari’s exodus: IDPs seek shelter elsewhere
KARACHI has played host to Afghan refugees for around three decades, while IDPs from more recent conflicts in Swat and Fata have also sought refuge in the metropolis. So it is indeed tragic that a city that has sheltered those fleeing conflict and disaster is today seeing its own citizens seek sanctuary elsewhere. As reported on Tuesday, families affected by the recent Lyari violence have sought refuge in parts of Sindh’s Thatta and Badin districts. The IDPs have taken shelter at Sufi shrines while some families are staying with relatives. People have left their homes and businesses in Lyari to safeguard their lives. Reportedly their properties have been occupied by criminals. Many of those who have fled belong to the lower-income bracket; in other words, these are ordinary working-class people caught in the crossfire of violent, well-connected forces. The current spate of violence has been sparked by turf wars between rival criminal gangs while the conflict also has ethnic and political undertones. Members of both the Kutchi and Baloch communities have been affected.
It is not easy to leave everything behind and relocate to a safer location; the plight of Lyari’s IDPs is a telling indication of just how dire is the situation in Karachi’s most neglected and violence-prone locality. The Sindh government needs to address the situation before it gets further out of hand. The foremost priority should be restoring order in Lyari. A secure environment must be created so that the IDPs feel confident enough to return. In the meantime, the properties people have left behind must be kept safe from marauders and encroachers. Until the situation normalises the provincial authorities must ensure that those who have fled to other districts are provided shelter, food and other basic needs. It is important that the matter is addressed as it may set a negative precedent, for if tomorrow another part of Karachi suffers a bout of ethnic or communal violence residents may be forced to flee.
Headed towards anarchy: Bloodshed in Egypt
LESS than a week after the coup, the Egyptian army must have realised the falsity of the two basic postulates on which it had acted: demonstrations are no indication of a nation’s political choice, and rampaging crowds do not give the army the mandate to subvert the democratic process. Highly charged protesters are still there at Tahrir Square and elsewhere but what they are demanding is anything but music to the generals’ ears. The protesters want Mohammed Morsi, Egypt’s first elected president, back in office, and the army believes it has no choice but to use force. Maybe, the army didn’t fire on the protesters at the sit-in on Monday, and the ‘provocation’ came from the crowd, but in any case the 500 dead and injured give us an indication of the pro-Morsi demonstrators’ determination to stay in the streets and defy the military. The constitution is being amended, and it will be put to a referendum, followed by parliamentary and presidential elections. But who gave the generals and Adly Mansour, the army’s choice as interim president, the right to change the constitution?
Algeria was bled white when the results of an election were repudiated by the ruling party, backed by the army. Can there, then, be any other result of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s July 3 coup? During the long Mubarak rule, the Muslim Brotherhood managed to spread its message and won new converts to its cause by reaching out to society’s deprived sections. It is highly unlikely that it will acquiesce in the generals’ constitutional nostrums and wait for an election, that many believe will not be truly transparent. The Brotherhood and its supporters will fight back, and that could throw the Arab world’s most populous and frontline state into anarchy or perhaps civil war.