Originally Posted by sadafnoorelahi

Q3: Discuss the current socio-political and security situation of Afghanistan and its implications for the neighbouring countries.
Outline:
Introduction

Geostrategic location:
land locked country situated in asia with neighbouring countries, Pakistan, iran, china and turkeminstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. it has been the target of foreign intervention since 1979 with soviet union invasion, followed by the role played by Pakistan and U.S till the breakdown of soviet union .POST 9/11,U.S attacked the country and since then “war on terror” has continued till date.

Historical background
Soviet union invasion and role of Pakistan and u.s to support Taliban

9/11 and “war on terror”:

Following the 11th September attack on twin towers, U.S ordered Afghanistan to handover osama bin laden and alqaeda operatives in afghanistan to them or face the consequences. afghanistan refused, demanding evidence to support the accusation. u.s along with coalition forces launched an attack on October 2001 and “operation enduring freedom” started. “War on terror” had certain objectives
• To eliminate terrorists and terrorist organizations
• To deny sponsorship and sanctuary to terrorists
pakistan also extended its assistance to U.S and gave airbases and logistical support. within a month, Kabul fell. the western allies continued fighting Taliban into the tora bora mountains. in 2002,Taliban re-organized themselves in Pakistan. pakistan also started operation in 2004 in Waziristan to eliminate Taliban.
In 2005,u.s started drone attacks in Pakistan,violating its sovereignty and territorial integrity.In feburary 2009,obama became the next president.in the first year,he followed the policy of his predecessor, president bush. In 2011,osma bin laden was killed in Pakistani territory.
Obama’s exit strategy
In December 2009,he outlined a withdrawal plan
“And as the c-in-c, I have determined that it is in our vital interest to send an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. After 18 months our men will begin to come home”.
U.S troops are scheduled to return home by 2014.

AFGHANISTAN-TODAY
a) Social crises
The challenges for peace and stability in a country ravaged by more than three decades of war are considerable. Efforts to guarantee stability continue to be undermined by the Taliban-led insurgency that has access to safe-havens in Pakistan.
A series of high-profile attacks on women highlighted the heightened danger that the future holds for Afghan women. The Law on Elimination of Violence Against Women, adopted in 2009, remains largely unenforced. Women and girls who flee forced marriage or domestic violence are often treated as criminals rather than victims. As of spring 2012, 400 women and girls were in prison and juvenile detention for the “moral crimes” of running away from home or sex outside marriage.
b) Security challenges
After more than a decade of intervention in Afghanistan, the insurgency (Taliban and other groups) remains resilient, the Afghan government weak, and the international community fatigued. Many analysts (and policy makers) have reached the conclusion that the war has reached a stalemate, and that Afghanistan’s future stability depends on a political reconciliation with the Taliban. After years of refusing to negotiate, the U.S. government in early 2011 began to openly pursue a negotiated solution.
c) Political issues
While these talks have so far yielded few clear results, the international community and the Afghan government have continued to implement the transition plan agreed to in 2010, according to which Afghan security forces will be in the lead across the country by the end of 2014, allowing the gradual drawdown of the 140,000 international military forces from 40 countries fighting under an alliance led by NATO. The signing of a Special Partnership Agreement between Presidents Obama and Karzai in May 2012 provided reassurances to Afghans that the United States would not remove all of its troops, a development welcomed in Afghanistan across the political spectrum (though not, of course, by the Taliban).
The next major hurdle to be faced will be presidential elections in 2014. President Karzai is barred by the Constitution from running again, and the most recent Afghan elections in 2009 and 2010 revealed significant flaws in Afghanistan’s democratic institutions. Ensuring a credible election and an effective change of power in 2014 will be crucial for Afghanistan’s future stability, regardless of progress on reconciliation or on training of Afghan security forces.

Implications for the neighbouring countries
The stability and security of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and its wider neighbourhood is a key issue for the region and for the international community.
a) Pakistan
Pakistan has been adversely affected by the situation in Afghanistan.it is believed that after, Afghanistan, Pakistan has suffered most losses in the “war against terror”. In addition to economic failure,the law and order situation of Pakistan has also deteriorated due to the “spillover effect”. Terrorist attacks on daily or consecutive days is fast becoming a norm. Afghanistan, time and again has accused Pakistan of harbouring terrorists and providing them support.
b) China
The implications of afghan war on china are relatively few, as china has maintained an independent policy. it extends support to Afghanistan for economic reconstruction while supporting the role of international community in eradicating terrorism.at the same time,it has certain security concerns regarding its muslim province xianjiang,where Afghanistan enjoys great linkage.
c) Iran
Since the decline of sunni led Taliban government in Afghanistan,the influence of iran has increased in the country although they have been sceptic of the presence of U.S and coalition forces. iran has enjoyed friendly relations with Afghanistan in the past decade.during the soviet invasion, millions of refugees fled from Afghanistan to iran and this is the only thorny issue between the two countries.
d) Central asian countries:
Being the neighbor of Afghanistan, these countries have suffered due to the volatile situation of the country that has spurred heroin smuggling.