20.10.2013 Prospects and challenges
There may be several obstacles to the China-Pakistan economic corridor, but the stakes involved are colossal which demand its immediate construction
By Dr Raza Khan
The economic corridor which China and Pakistan have agreed to construct between Pakistan’s underdeveloped seaport of Gwadar to Kashghar border region in western China has colossal prospects of trade, investment and socioeconomic development for the entire region. Although the idea of economic corridor between China and Pakistan was conceived several years back, it started getting a concrete shape during the visits of prime ministers of both countries after the election of Nawaz Sharif as prime minister in June this year.
Pak-China economic corridor could be instrumental in increasing the trade between the two states and the South-Asia, Central Asia and Middle East manifold. At the moment, the total volume of bilateral trade between China and Pakistan is $12 billion. As the western part of China, which the economic corridor aims to provide with an outlet to the seacoast, is practically part of Central Asia while most of Pakistan is located in South Asia and Gwadar itself an outpost of Middle East, the economic corridor could increase the volume of inter-regional trade manifold. If Afghanistan is, somehow, provided a link to Pak-China economic corridor, it would further boost the prospects of trade with Central Asia. Apart from providing China’s northeast the shortest possible access to the sea the route, it could be an energy lifeline for the same region. Middle eastern and Gulf oil could be supplied efficiently and at a minimum cost to northeastern parts of China.
The economic corridor for Pakistan is critically important as it could trigger industrialisation in different areas along the route and could turn many areas into economic hubs. Consequently, the process could give rise to new cities and urban centres most importantly in some of the remotest parts of the country.
One of the key obstacles to the laying of a new trade route between Gwadar (Pakistan) and western China is the serious security problems in Balochistan. Area-wise the biggest province of Pakistan is facing active separatist insurgency by Baloch nationalist militant outfits. The interior of Balochistan, through which the road-rail route is supposed to pass, is nearly a ‘no-go’ region for Pakistani state functionaries. Only the military is operating in the area and it is also under attack. Keeping this in view, the security of the trade corridor would be a very tough task.
However, this does not mean that the route cannot be built. In fact, the route can be used to put an end or at least neutralise the insurgency by giving the Baloch nationalist a big share in the profit from the route like the transit fee charged from the trading vehicles. Only a big economic stake for the inhabitants of Balochistan, particularly those areas through which the route would pass as well as the surrounding areas, could guarantee the security of the route. Otherwise, no amount of policing or security apparatus could keep the route secure.
Not only the proposed Gwadar to China trading corridor route would face problems of security in Baloch-inhabited areas, the route is most likely to pass through upper Balochistan inhabited by Pashtoons. Although there are no separatist militant groups active in the region, there are pockets of Taliban present in these areas which could pose a serious threat to the security of the route. Likewise, in some areas of southern Pakhtunkhwa, which would be crosscut by the proposed road-rail route, the presence of Taliban would disturb smooth movement of trading convoys. Keeping in view the presence of Taliban militants across the KP, the security of the trading route throughout KP would be at risk with varying degree of intensity.
From the KP, the trading route would enter the Karakorum Highway in Pakistan’s northern areas. Traditionally, this has been a very secure route but some events in recent years and particularly recent months including the killings of Shiites and the rare incident of killing of foreign mountain climbers in Gligit Baltistan are alarming. The incident of killing of nine foreign mountain climbers, including Chinese, at a time when the proposed route was to be announced formally, is extremely significant. The incident was followed by the killing of a lieutenant colonel, a captain and a senior superintendent of police in Chilas which is also very alarming. These incidents suggest that some forces are against the construction of the new trading corridor. In this situation the security of the trading corridor in the traditionally peaceful northern area of Pakistan would be a daunting task.
Apart from security challenges to the new China-Pakistan trade corridor, the construction of physical infrastructure and the development of the existing infrastructure is very important. Road and railway infrastructure has to be laid down right up from Gwadar in the extreme Southwest of Pakistan to the north. There does not exist any road or railway track linking Gwadar port even to its provincial capital, Quetta. Whereas, there does exist a road from Quetta on the border with Afghanistan further northwards linking Balochistan province to the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. However, the road is narrow and in a dilapidated condition. It cannot be used for heavy vehicles transporting goods. Likewise there is a railway track from Quetta to Zhob on border with KP but there is a missing link between the two provinces. However, this track is not usable in its present form as it is of narrow gauge and has since long been abandoned.
More importantly the pressure of traffic is already huge on these roads. Therefore, they could not be of significant help in making the new trading route a success. In order to make these roads facilitate the trade they need to be reconstructed and their width needs to be doubled. In this regard, the construction of a motorway from Peshawar to DI Khan in the South and from Hasanabdal interchange on Peshawar-Islamabad Motorway (M-1) to Mansehra could be instrumental.
There may be several obstacles to the construction of China-Pakistan economic corridor, but the stakes involved for both the countries are colossal which demand that it should be built on war footing. Apart from both the countries, the potential benefits of the project for the entire region are numerous. Therefore, all the regional countries must also contribute to the expeditious completion of the corridor.
The writer is an expert on South Asia and Afghanistan. He can be contacted via email:razapkhan@hotmail.com)