Thread: Editorial: DAWN
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Old Friday, January 17, 2014
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Friday, January 17, 2014

SBP paints bleak picture


IN its annual report on the economy for the last fiscal, the State Bank of Pakistan has correctly pointed out that the country has lost much more than what it has gained from the ‘war on terror’ in the form of foreign assistance and coalition support funds. It notes: “…the actual economic cost of this war on Pakistan is significantly higher” and points out the conflict has caused law and order to worsen, “which in turn has adversely impacted the investment climate, caused production losses, diverted resources to enhancing security, encouraged manpower and some businesses to migrate out of the country, and adversely impacted revenue collection”. This analysis of the conflict’s economic impact is spot on, but blaming poor security conditions alone for all our financial woes as some of our politicians and policymakers are fond of doing will not get us anywhere. The report concedes this when it says, “growing security and persistent structural weaknesses continue to hamper economic growth”.

We may have the war to blame for the deteriorating security conditions. But who is to blame for the failure to correct the structural weaknesses and imbalances pointed out by the SBP? The responsibility for failing the people has to be shared by successive military and civilian rulers as well as the country’s elite. It is regrettable that every government, without exception, has contributed to the economic rot instead of reversing it. The difference lies only in the degree of the decay caused by one government and the next.

When Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif returned to power for a third term with a strong mandate in the 2013 May polls, most people expected him to take tough decisions to improve the economy. He didn’t. Take the collapsing energy sector that is pulling the economy apart. Apart from raising energy prices for the average Pakistani, his government has done little to improve governance of public power and gas companies or to recover unpaid bills from powerful defaulters. Similarly, its first budget took billions in taxes from the poor to middle-income households to give to wealthy businessmen. As if this were not enough, an attractive tax amnesty scheme has been designed to reward tax thieves working outside the documented economy. The list of incentives given to the rich in the name of the poor is long. So it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the government misses budget targets for growth, tax collection, inflation, fiscal deficit, current account, investment, etc as pointed out by the SBP. But all is not lost. Though the clock is ticking, the prime minister still has time to review his economic policies to address the structural imbalances and prove his critics wrong.

Horrific tragedy


THE terrible accident near Nawabshah, in which at least 20 people were killed, 17 of them schoolchildren, stirs up many emotions. There is rage, shock and most of all grief that so many young lives were lost in such a manner. The van the children were in collided with a dumper truck on a link road. This is not the first accident of its kind and, unless we as a nation change our ways, it unfortunately will not be the last. Reports indicate the van was overloaded, which added to the high death toll. Similar incidents elsewhere have also been attributed to negligence or the breaking of rules. Nearly 40 people — mostly schoolchildren — died in a tragedy on the Lahore-Islamabad Motorway in 2011 when their bus overturned; that vehicle was also overloaded. Last year, around 14 members of a family perished in Sheikhupura when a train rammed into a motorcycle rickshaw whose driver had tried to speed through an unmanned level crossing. Also last year, 16 children died when their school van caught fire near Gujrat.

Who should responsibility be pinned on for the Nawabshah tragedy, as well as other such tragedies? Should it be on the greedy transporters who pack kids like sardines into poorly maintained vehicles in order to maximise their profits, or on school managements who turn a blind eye to this? Or should the traffic authorities be made to answer, as they fail to penalise vehicles guilty of violations? For example, children clinging precariously from the backs of school vans are a common sight throughout Pakistan. And do parents also shoulder some responsibility for failing to raise their voice against such dangerous practices? All those in important positions have expressed grief over the Nawabshah incident, while the Supreme Court’s instructions to remove defective vehicles from the roads are also on record. What will it take for the state to move beyond regret and take action to prevent future tragedies? Unfortunately, life is cheap in Pakistan and the lives of children are worth even less. We desperately need a change in attitudes so that life is valued and our children protected from dangerous negligence.

Cantonment in Swat


IT was almost inevitable — the massive and most successful, relatively speaking, counter-insurgency operation in Pakistan is to be crowned off with a permanent military cantonment. Is it a good idea to establish a permanent new cantonment in the Swat/Malakand region, and what does that say about Pakistan’s approach to counter-insurgency? The latter question may be easier to answer: the Pakistani state has not truly been able to move from the ‘hold’ phase of counter-insurgency to ‘build’ and ‘transfer’. The need for a long-term military presence is precisely because failure to capture or eliminate the TTP Swat leadership early on meant that it was able to reappear with new guerrilla, hit-and-run tactics that have kept the overall security situation in the region less than stable. And now, of course, Mullah Fazlullah is also the TTP’s national head. Secondly, the failure of the civilian arm of the state — whether because the military arm had displaced it or because of an inherent lack of capacity on the part of the civilians, or perhaps both — to take meaningful charge of civil administration and the lead on rebuilding Swat has meant that the region has not been able to capitalise on military gains.

Still, what may make sense from a narrow military perspective may not be the best idea from a state perspective. If Swat/Malakand is the model for other counter-insurgency campaigns, then does that mean a permanent military presence will be established in the other insurgency-hit areas of KP and Fata — and what about the now-rejected idea of cantonments in Balochistan? While local resentment in Swat isn’t very high, other regions may not be similarly amenable to a military operation leading to a permanent military presence. Better counterterroism measures, a stronger police, a more invested civil administration and a local political leadership willing to lead — that route is preferred to the one the Pakistani state is set to embark on in Swat.
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