China's Role in Post-Nato Afghanistan
While Nato and the US forces are preparing to withdraw from Afghanistan, the Afghanistan government is increasingly interested in boosting its relations with regional powers such as Russia and China. Conversely, both Moscow and Beijing are concerned about the future of Afghanistan after US withdrawal. Mr Karzai's visit to China speaks volumes about Afghanistan's efforts to strengthening its relations with China and fostering regional cooperation on Afghanistan.
China also seems interested in Afghanistan and is bracing to play a more engaging role in Afghanistan's security and development after 2014.
Recent media reports suggest that China intends to invest in extracting oil reserves. It must be noted here that the Chinese companies already are the leading investors in Afghan mining sector as well as many other development projects. During his recent visit to China, Karzai attended an economic conference in the northern city of Xian, held talks in Beijing with China's President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang to boost Chinese investments in Afghanistan as well as the country's role in the efforts for stabilizing Afghanistan.
Afghan president also discussed with Chinese officials the Bilateral Security Agreement between Afghanistan and the US that would allow presence of US forces in the country after 2014. Both sides also signed a number of agreements which would definitely catalyze the economic activities in the country. China also agreed to donate 250 million Chinese Yuans as aid to Afghanistan.
As Afghanistan and the US are inching closer to reach a deal over the Kabul-Washington security agreement, Karzai's move in engaging talks with China and other Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) members is an attempt to address concerns of the regional countries regarding the security agreement and prolonged presence of the US in the region.
China's future role in Afghanistan is highly important in the wake of international efforts to stabilize the country and develop its fragile economy. Afghanistan and China upgraded their relations to “strategic level” last year and Afghanistan was granted the status of observer country in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is led by China and Russia. With the US-led international alliance preparing to exit Afghanistan, Chinese officials must have reached the conclusions that the post-2014 security situation in Afghanistan will have a direct impact on China's security.
Closer relations between Afghanistan and China will attract more Chinese aid and investments in Afghanistan which will greatly contribute to the country's economic development and extraction of the vast untapped underground resources. China could also play a crucial role in supporting Afghanistan in developing its armed forces. Given that China is a powerful member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, it can support development of Afghan security forces through the SCO.
Here a question arises that why China is concerned? The most befitting answer to this question is that the regional security is a prime concern for both Russia and China; the two major members of the SCO. Beijing is now cautiously enhancing its engagement in the Afghan conflict. The trilateral summit of China, Afghanistan and Pakistan, hosted by Beijing last year, signalled that the China is more than willing to increase its engagement in Afghanistan's security challenges.
It is believed that armed Uighur separatists, who are demanding independence of Chinese Muslim region of Xinjiang, a province bordering Afghanistan and Pakistan, are being trained at militants' training centres in those bordering areas. With the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan, the Uighur separatists pose a serious concern for Chinese authorities.
After the US and NATO forces leave Afghanistan, the Afghan security forces may still remain engaged in a war with the Taliban. This will allow the 'Eastern Turkmenistan's Independence Movement', considered a terrorist group by Beijing, to seek shelter and find safe havens in Taliban-controlled areas. In addition, they also believe that continued instability in Afghanistan will increase production of opium and, resultantly, drug trafficking into China through the volatile Xinjiang province.
Another serious concern for China is the stability of Pakistan, the closest ally to China. The prospect of a prolonged war in Afghanistan and a possible Taliban resurgence could be seen as a potential threat to stability of Pakistan too. A prolonged turmoil in Afghanistan will unpredictably involve Pakistan, which is considered as a strategic backyard to China. However, instability in Afghanistan would trigger more proxy wars between India and Pakistan on the Afghanistan soil which leaves China in dire straits.
Given a somehow shared approach by China and the United States over the Afghan conflict, it seems that interests of both sides are other than conflicting in the country. As Western countries do, China also wants a stable Afghanistan as a regional economic partner and a crude market for Chinese products. On the other hand, Afghanistan's situation closely affects the central Asian States which are neighbouring China and have direct impacts on Xinjiang. With the US and NATO exiting from the unpopular Afghan war, China is moving in with its multi-billion dollar investments in the economy of Afghanistan.
JWT Desk