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sibgakhan · #73 Thursday, January 19, 2006

Win-win situation for everyone

By Mayed Ali
jang.com.pk

LAHORE: President Pervez Musharraf has finally opened the lid to a potential magma by cautiously announcing decisions on two most sensitive issues, construction of dams and the National Finance Commission Award, eclipsing the federation for a long time now.

The president was subtle and managed both the vital issues in a very tactical way. He mapped out his strategy in such a comprehensive way that he not only successfully resolved the problem, he tried to do justice to all the parties to the tussle.

And mind it there is no dearth of stakeholders over both the issues - the governments at the centre and provinces, the opposition everywhere and the nationalists. The president was articulate, to-the-point and his speech covered both the issues in entirety along with the rest he discussed.

While ending years' long debate on the construction of dams, President Musharraf announced the work on the construction of Bhasha Dam will commence from next month, giving a deadline vis-a-vis launching of work on one of the big dams.

This will be followed by launching of Munda Dam formally. Besides, he made it clear Kalabagh Dam would not be compromised at any cost. However, he, being head of the state and custodian of the federation, would not launch Kalabagh Dam till a consensus among the provinces was ascertained. In addition to this, Akhori Dam will also be constructed in due course.

On the face of it, the president has addressed the apprehensions of smaller provinces by announcing first the launch of Bhasha Dam as against Kalabagh Dam. Technically, the actual construction on Kalabagh Dam is expected to start before that of Bhasha Dam, keeping in view the technical progress made so far in both the projects. The actual work on Bhasha Dam will commence in mid-2009 if everything else related to the project goes as planned. That is, the preparation of tender documents and detailed engineering as well as additional investigation studies and model testing on Bhasha Dam will be completed in early 2008.

Moreover, the pre-construction activities, including the land acquisition and upgradation of the Karakoram Highway (KKH), are expected to complete in 2009 to be followed by the actual construction on the dam.

On the other hand, Kalabagh Dam can be launched instantly. All the actual construction awaits is a slight updating on the already prepared reports on designs and the tender documents. This process is expected to be completed in one year after the formal approval. So the construction on the dam can be initiated in 2007 after getting reports on the environment impact assessment and the process of bidding.

So, Kalabagh Dam has an advantage of two years, at least, over Bhasha Dam. President Musharraf's bid for evolving consensus would not take over a year, keeping in view his 'persuasive prowess'. Even if the matter is delayed till 2007, that is, inception of new governments after the scheduled general elections, the actual construction on Kalabagh Dam might start before or along with the actual construction of Bhasha Dam. So, President Musharraf has a couple of years on his side for getting on with Kalabagh Dam project, which he favours more for obvious practical reasons.

Moreover, he has luck on his side to ensure the establishment of 'suitable' governments in all the provinces and at the centre by 2007 so the possible remaining political impediments could be removed well in time. The all important aspect to Kalabagh Dam issue was the formal public announcement by the president, which he did in his speech. The loose plan has been put to effect, and that is it. The Kalabagh Dam project has been formally rolled. The construction of Munda Dam is a testimony to the same effect for it is a part of the Kalabagh Dam project.

Going by the facts, it seems the president has struck an immaculate balance vis-à-vis his commitments and assurances to all the provinces with a win-win situation for all parties to the conflict. He watched the NWFP's financial interests in shape of royalty by announcing both Bhasha and Munda Dams, he addressed Sindh's apprehensions of alleged expected manipulations by Punjab by announcing Bhasha Dam first and secured the Punjab's interests by spelling out loud his resolve on the construction of Kalabagh Dam.

However, the president, perhaps, deliberately shied away from the actual problem attached to the construction of dams, especially Kalabagh Dam. The president's speech was dressed with figures, calculations and advantages in favour of his point. The president also quoted the World Bank report to support his argument.

The real problem with the detractors of the projects is their reservations on the possible manipulations by Punjab once the KBD starts to deliver. The track-record suggests some of the reservations are not all that ill-founded. Moreover, the construction of dams and reservoirs just cannot be compared with similar ventures in the advanced first world.

In the US or Australia, the states enjoy equal rights and there is a lot lesser power abuse so the rights of all the states are secured unlike Pakistan. Had the president announced a constitutional protection of water, power and financial rights from all these planned projects, his ideas might have carried more weight for the Sindhis, Balochs and the Pathans.

As for the NFC Award, President Musharraf has taken a bold initiative by increasing the percentage of federal grants from 42.7 per cent to 45.33 per cent to start with. This will increase to 50 per cent in the next five years. Masterfully, the president focused more on the subvention grants instead of fiddling with the divisible pool, against which the provinces have serious reservations.

Till the provinces decide some workable solution, the less-privileged Balochistan and the NWFP would get a huge chunk of Rs over 9 billion each for development purposes. Sindh will get over Rs 5 billion, while Punjab will get over Rs 3 billion.

It will fetch the provinces an additional Rs 51 billion from the next fiscal year. This is really a great achievement, keeping in view the stalemate between the provinces since the time the next NFC Award is due. The president has deferred the issue till the consensus between the provinces is brokered. Again, the next general elections might have a key to this problem as well.