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Old Wednesday, October 05, 2016
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Default October 5th, 2016.

Date: Wednesday, October 5th, 2016.


Bilateral dialogue — an option?


Despite the tough stance currently on display by Pakistan and India, the establishment in both countries realises that war would be nothing more than a folly. Armed to the teeth and ready to fight to the death, with a complicated history and an emotional public, any military conflict between the two neighbours could fast erupt into an uncontrollable disaster with extremely negative consequences on both sides. Acting on this understanding and perhaps due to the pressure exerted by the international community, which has been viewing these simmering tensions with alarm, national security advisers of both countries have spoken twice in as many days. Sources have revealed that during the discussions, Pakistan’s intention to de-escalate was reiterated, however, it was clarified that this does not imply lack of resolve in responding to cross-border attacks by India in a similar manner. While these talks have been seen as a positive step, things have not improved on the ground.

Fresh reports on cross-border firings at the Line of Control continue to emerge as do new vitriolic statements in both countries’ ongoing verbal duel. Meanwhile, the top political leadership in Pakistan has vowed its support for the military multiple times in recent days as well as its intention to continue support for the Kashmiri people’s struggle for freedom. The current situation is following a pattern that often emerges whenever there is a flare-up in the Kashmir issue. It quickly becomes conflated with cross-border tensions, accusations are flung about and during the escalating fears of war, the people of Kashmir are forgotten. Their freedom struggle once again becomes a footnote in our history books while months or years elapse before Pakistan and India again reach the point where bilateral dialogue becomes a viable option. All parties involved in this conflict well understand its underlying causes and the way forward, yet jingoistic nationalism which promotes war is commonplace. There is now an immediate need for both countries to adopt a pragmatic approach and recognise the importance of de-escalating tensions before any more damage is inflicted on the people caught up in this conflict.

The Taliban ascendant


Once again the Afghan Taliban have demonstrated their military reach and capacity with another assault on the city of Kunduz. They held Kunduz briefly a year ago before beating a tactical retreat, undefeated by Afghan forces and American air strikes. Today, those same Afghan forces aided again by American air power and possibly American Special Forces are conducting clearing operations in the city. The centre is said to be cleared, and Taliban are said to be hiding among the civilian population. Government forces are reporting what for the Afghan conflict is a very high body count but offering little by way of objective evidence of that. Provincial officials with a finger on the Kunduz pulse opine that it could still fall, Afghan forces efforts notwithstanding.

As the fighting raged, President Ashraf Ghani was en route to Brussels to try and drum up international donor interest in the plight of his beleaguered country. He is hoping to secure aid till 2020 and he is going to have an uphill task. The world has wearied — again — of Afghanistan and its eternally intractable problems. It matters not that most of those problems are the direct or indirect product of external interference in Afghan affairs.

Who rules in Kabul is of crucial importance to Pakistan. The current government is weak and divided, and depending on which map one believes the Taliban control between a third-and-a-half of the country and are nowhere being rolled back. At best the Afghan National Army is holding the line, at worst it is crumbling. In Pakistan, Operation Zarb-e-Azb has been mostly successful in ridding the tribal areas of extremists but they have merely relocated and often to Afghanistan, or absorbed themselves into the local population as before — they are not militarily severely degraded and the regularity with which they conduct bomb attacks in Pakistan is testament to their durability. If Kunduz falls and the Taliban consolidate, then Kabul is on the horizon.

CPEC — still a lack of clarity


Considering the importance of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) for the future of the nation, there is a remarkable lack of clarity about some of its components. This is the largest project undertaken by the state, it will have an impact on the lives of every individual and the government is still havering about the western route that passes through Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Such was the irritation of the Chief Minister of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Pervaiz Khattak, that he raised the matter at the All-Parties Conference on national security held on October 3. His argument was that the western route must be an integral part of the project, and it may come as a surprise to many, particularly the Chinese who are underwriting much of the capital infrastructure costs, that it is not already.

The CPEC is no less important to the Chinese than it is to Pakistan. The western route to the Chinese is in the short-to-medium term more important than the central and eastern routes, in that it directly links the port of Gwadar to the markets of southern China and Central Asia, and provides a shorter sea route for goods into China than the long way around through the South China Sea. It was reported that the PM had agreed in the past to give the western route priority but the government’s subsequent action — or inaction — suggests otherwise. The Chinese have in the recent past expressed frustration at the lack of urgency on the Pakistan side to any number of aspects of the CPEC. For their part the Chinese are far advanced with the construction of a fibre-optic internet line between Kashgar, Gwadar and Rawalpindi. The problem as ever is the ‘Punjab first’ mentality that dominates PML-N thinking. There are practical difficulties associated with the western route — lower traffic flows and security to name but two — but they are not insurmountable. An outbreak of holistic thinking by the government would be warmly welcomed.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 5th, 2016.
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