Date: Tuesday, November 29th, 2016.
Controlling crime in Karachi
As has been made clear in the bloodiest possible way Karachi remains a dangerous and deadly place to live and work — particularly if one works in the forces of law-and-order or is a member of a minority community. A spate of shootings has left a senior police officer and a member of the Ahmadiyya community dead and a Head Constable of the traffic police seriously injured. There is speculation that the motives are sectarian (probable) or retaliation against the police for doing their jobs (at the very least possible.) The shootings followed a familiar pattern — men on motorcycles who were clearly intelligence led as they knew where their victims were and their movements rode up, did their bloody work and rode off. The likelihood of their being found or prosecuted is remote. Much has been made of the reduction in crimes of this sort in Karachi and that is certainly true, but there is obviously more to do if violent crime is to be pegged back as well as reducing the ever-rising but little-reported street crime of a lesser nature.
With a new army chief to come into post within days now is the time for the PPP government and particularly the apex committee that is tasked to oversee the implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP) to re-lens the Karachi Operation. Gains have been made, but sustaining them is now the challenge, as well as having the Rangers push the envelope of engagement yet further. There has been criticism of the Rangers in the past that they have been unduly heavy-handed and that is possible. The other side of the coin is that you do not fight what is to all intents and purposes a low-intensity urban war with one hand tied behind your back.
Subjectively Karachi feels safer than it was a year ago. How much safer is an open question, because objectively it is just a little safer going by the headline statistics — but a long way from being truly safe. A Karachi clean-up was never going to be pretty, but failing to do so is a still-uglier prospect. Get to it.
Fidel Castro 1926-2016
Apicture has emerged since the death of Fidel Castro was announced in terms of responses to it that speaks of a man who was as much a divider as he was a unifier and revolutionary. Castro was perhaps the last of the Cold War warriors and at the time of his death the world’s longest-serving head of state (he remained titular head though his brother Raul had taken over the running of the country.)
There was grief on the streets of Havana and rejoicing on the streets of Miami, Florida, by Cubans that had fled or opposed his regime. President Obama issued a carefully crafted statement that was aimed at the preservation of the rapprochement between Cuba and America. President-elect Trump issued a four-word Tweet — ‘Fidel Castro is dead.’ European responses ranged between the anodyne and tepid to the cautiously diplomatic. He was admired for his stance against America by many and criticised for his record on human rights (it was appalling) and the fact that he held Cuba back developmentally in defence, said he, of revolutionary ideals. His funeral is to be on Saturday 3rd December and it will be interesting to see who from the pantheon of world leaders decides to attend.
The Castro legacy is going to be picked over by historians for decades but it is the aftermath, the ‘what now’, that is of immediate interest. There is not going to be any political change in Cuba. It is a Communist one-party state and will remain so. It is also opening up to the world of trade, and the Trump presidency is open for business in under two months and if there is one thing Mr Trump is it is a businessman. He will also be mindful of the Cuban voters that were instrumental in him winning Florida; so as is proving to be the case with so much of Mr Trump reality and rhetoric may part company. Castro was a man of his time, and vital in his day. That day is long past and it is now for Cuba to chart a path into the 21st century.
The debt balloon
The report that Pakistan has taken on an additional $3 billion in foreign loans in the last four months, and that those loans are being used to finance budget commitments as well as bolster foreign currency reserves is worrying. The inflow of foreign economic assistance between July and October 2016 was $2.95 billion, of which $2.2 billion or 75 per cent of the toal loan was for what are described as ‘non-productive purposes.’ In laypersons terms that means that the government is not borrowing to build or develop planned and existing projects but to support existing debt, and the commitments made in successive budgets as well as fatten the forex reserves that have dropped of late. Loans to support projects in the same period amounted to a paltry $750 million.
The point to draw from the above is that foreign loans are only truly beneficial when they are used to build assets because assets — projects — eventually (in theory) turn a profit once the loans used to capitalise them are paid off. The argument is being made that the shift from project loans to programme is leading to a collapse or at least degradation of infrastructure as insufficient funding is available to either upgrade or develop new-build. This is not the picture that the government would wish to have the nation believe as it rolls out ever more ambitious infrastructure projects across the country.
The trouble with debt is that it has to be paid. The economic argument runs that so long as the rate of return on borrowing is 1 percent or higher then foreign debt presents no management problem. As we now know that does not appear to be the case as most of the new foreign debt is holding up the budget. With forex reserves now below $19 billion — reduced by a drop in remittances and foreign exports as well as those irritating repayments that have to be made — there is a developing sense that the government is not managing the money as well as the ever-optimistic finance minister tells us it is. Balloons have a tendency to burst. Careful where you put those pins, Mr Dar.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 29th, 2016.