WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao makes a long-awaited visit to Washington on Thursday, but few trade experts expect his meeting with President Bush to defuse growing frustration by U.S. lawmakers and manufacturers over China's currency policies.
"I doubt that President Hu can deliver in a concrete way on the currency, so I would look for the words he chooses, the signals that he sends," said Michael J. Green, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, and a former staff member of President Bush's National Security Council.
The core issue is Beijing's longstanding policy of pegging the yuan currency to the U.S. dollar. While that tie has been loosened since late last year, U.S. manufacturers and a growing chorus of lawmakers contend the Chinese currency still remains vastly undervalued against the greenback, undercutting U.S. exporters and driving a record $202 billion trade deficit with China in 2005.
Concerned that a rapid revaluation could undermine economic stability at home, China is expected to do little more than continue nudging the yuan higher against the dollar, experts say.
Green, who spoke at a CSIS panel discussion on Hu's upcoming visit, said any pronouncements on currency policy are likely to be highly nuanced, but would undoubtedly be the result of a "collective decision" by the Chinese leadership "and will have real weight."
"But the administration will really have to squeeze it out of him," he said.
Critics of China's currency policy contend the yuan remains undervalued by as much as 40% against the U.S. dollar. For its part, the Bush administration has publicly pressed China to let the yuan appreciate more quickly. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Tuesday reiterated the administration's contention that China hasn't let the yuan gain enough ground.
But administration officials have also sought to head off pressure on Capitol Hill for retaliatory action against China. The most daunting piece of legislation comes from Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., which would impose punitive tariffs of 27.5% on imports of Chinese goods unless the yuan is significantly revalued.
The senators, after a weeklong visit to China last month, agreed to delay a vote on the bill, but warned Beijing that they would seek action by September without satisfactory action on the currency front.
The Treasury Department, meanwhile, has delayed the issuance of its currency report until after Hu's visit, but could formally label China a "currency manipulator" when the document is finally released.

Checkbook diplomacy

China, meanwhile, has sought to ease trade tensions in other ways. Vice Premier Wu Yi led a delegation of Chinese trade officials on a multi-state tour of the United States ahead of last week's annual meeting with top U.S. trade negotiators. Wu brought her checkbook, signing deals for around $16 billion worth of U.S. goods.
China has also pledged to step up its enforcement of intellectual property rights, cracking down on purveyors of pirated DVDs and other software, and ordering that all Chinese-built computers be loaded with legitimate, licensed software. China also agreed to take steps to re-open its market to U.S. beef.
Hu arrived Tuesday in Seattle, where he's slated to dine with Microsoft CEO and co-founder Bill Gates and to visit a Boeing manufacturing plan. In last week's visit, Wu inked a deal for 80 Boeing airplanes, and Chinese PC-makers have agreed to purchase hundreds of millions of dollars worth of licensed versions of Windows.
Meanwhile, U.S.-based exporters are pressing for urgent action on the currency front. The National Association of Manufacturers welcomed last week's trade developments, but warned that concrete action is needed on the currency front and intellectual property.
"President Hu must realize the time has come when the fundamental issues have to be resolved. America's manufacturers are not asking for anything unreasonable," said Frank Vargo, NAM vice president for international affairs, following last week's meeting.

Careful what you wish for

Trade experts warned, however, that any future revaluation of the Chinese currency could backfire on U.S. firms depending on how it's engineered.
For instance, China could seek to rapidly push up the yuan by halting Chinese purchases of U.S. government debt, noted Wing Thye Woo, an economics professor at the University of California at Davis and director of the East Asia Program at Columbia University's Center on Globalization and Sustainable Development. But such a move would likely undercut U.S. asset values, crashing the stock market while also fueling inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to boost interest rates, he said.
"Really, what we want is the Chinese to be flexible, to appreciate their currency over time in line with developments in their financial sector, so that there is an orderly winding down of the huge trade deficits that we have," Wing said, at a forum sponsored by the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.
But trade experts agreed that China's currency policies have contributed to rising trade tensions that could eventually undermine the world trading system.
"The crucial point ... is that the failure of China to permit its currency to move, as most other countries in the world are doing, leads to a major protectionist trade reaction here in the United States," said C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute for International Economics.
"The point is -- ad we know this from history -- that if currencies remain way out of line, trade protectionism follows," Bergsten said, at the CSIS panel discussion.


'President Hu must realize the time has come when the fundamental issues have to be resolved.'
— Frank Vargo, NAM



plz pray,
Sardarzada

WASHINGTON: Chinese President Hu Jintao's upcoming visit will add new momentum to China-U.S. relations as both sides are expecting the visit to be a success, a group of leading U.S. experts on China affairs has said.
``The summit between President Hu Jintao and President George W. Bush will surely become a success.
"If leaders of the two countries don't have such will, there won't be such a summit,'' David M. Lampton, Director of China Studies at the Johns Hopkins University, told Xinhua in a recent interview.
From the U.S. point of view, China-U.S. relations have been a ``bright spot'' in the Bush administration's foreign policy during the past three years and the U.S. Government will continue to keep the 'bright spot,'' he said.
Meanwhile, in Lampton's opinion, China's present basic strategy is to create a stable external environment for its internal development.
Mr. Lampton said Mr. Hu's visit will present a great opportunity to Americans to have a better understanding of China's leaders and China's view about the future. — Xinhua

http://www.thehindu.com


plz pray,
Sardarzada

__________________
God is dead! God remains dead! And we have killed him! How shall we console ourselves, the most murderous of all murderers? The holiest and the mightiest that the world has hitherto possessed, has bled to death under our knife....

The US and China are parties to the world’s most important bilateral relationship, and this two-part series analyzes the challenges and opportunities confronting two world powers. In the first article, China scholar David Shambaugh presents a litany of issues that bedevil their relations. From President Bush’s perspective, three points of contention most likely to take center stage: First is China’s reluctance, viewed as a roadblock to UN Security Council action, to condemn Iran’s uranium-enrichment program and ambitions for nuclear-weapons capability. The second is China’s “hands-off” approach to North Korea’s nuclear program. Third is China’s push to lock-up global energy supplies, which according to the Bush administration, hikes up prices and intensifies the scramble for resources. On the other hand, China questions motives for amassing US troops in Asia, Bush’s nuclear deal with India, and the US not urging Japan to admit atrocities from World War II. And then there is a long list of economic issues. At past Sino-US summits, leaders often engaged in abstract ruminations on the value of the relationship. But there’s a new sense of urgency, which according to Shambaugh, could lead to “a real working summit” and real progress for world stability. – YaleGlobal

The US and China: Friends or Foes?
Confronting a long list of major issues, the presidents might go beyond cant at Washington summit

David Shambaugh
YaleGlobal, 18 April 2006
WASHINGTON: Chinese President Hu Jintao’s meeting with President George W. Bush at the White House on April 20 will be an opportunity for the two leaders to grapple with the complexities of the world’s most important bilateral relationship. While no major agreement may emerge for the two leaders, the opportunity to listen directly to each other’s perspectives and coordinate their respective positions on a range of sensitive global and bilateral issues could be an investment in strategic stability and each nation’s interests.
The Sino-American summit comes at a propitious moment because the agenda of issues of concern to the two governments has grown much more complicated in recent months. Strategic suspicions of the other’s actions and motives grow in each capital. For Washington, in particular, frustrations have recently risen over three issues:
First, the US is frustrated by Beijing’s and Russia’s foot-dragging in the UN Security Council to condemn Iran’s enrichment of uranium and suspected nuclear weapons development program. Condemnation by the five permanent members of the Security Council is the first step towards likely sanctions and other punitive measures – moves resisted by Beijing.
Second, Beijing’s refusal to pressure Pyongyang to abandon its declared nuclear weapons program has also frustrated Washington.
Third, the Bush administration perceives an attempt by China to “lock up” global energy supplies as contributing to escalating prices and competition for worldwide resources. The administration is particularly troubled when China signs contracts with countries that Washington views as “rogue” or troublesome states—such as Iran, Myanmar, Nigeria, Sudan, Venezuela and Zimbabwe. In return, China has sold arms to these states and generally shields them from international condemnation
Such moves have not only concerned Washington, but run counter to the administration’s desire, as articulated by Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, for China to become a “responsible stakeholder” in world affairs and global governance. Zoellick argues that China is a full member of the international community, but tends to “free ride,” shying away from its appropriate responsibilities as a major power.
In addition to these nettlesome issues on the US-China agenda, the two leaders must tackle other issues as well.
China questions US strategic intentions and military deployments in Asia – viewed by a number of Chinese analysts as an attempt to strategically encircle China. The characterizations of China as a potential adversary in the Defense Department’s recently released “Quadrennial Defense Review” and other Pentagon reports fuel this perception in Beijing. President Hu Jintao will likely seek clarification of American intentions on this issue.
China, like other countries, is also concerned about the recent US-India nuclear agreement. While China has accepted India as a declared nuclear weapons state and welcomes its entry into the non-proliferation community of nations, Beijing joins other countries expressing concern about the double-standard precedent set by the US-India agreement. More broadly and not surprisingly, Beijing is wary of US attempts to enlist India in a strategic encirclement of China.
China would also like Washington to do more to encourage Japan to confront the “history issue.” Sino-Japanese relations have atrophied badly over this and other issues, and the rift does not serve US interests or East Asian stability. Awaiting Prime Minister Koizumi’s successor in September, Beijing would appreciate greater American pressure on Koizumi and his successors to cease their visits to the Yasukuni Shrine and engage in a range of initiatives to deal with other elements of the history issue, such as removing the remains of Class A war criminals from Yasukuni, establishing Truth and Reconciliation Commissions, and revising textbooks.
China and other Asian states view the US, with its official silence on these issues, as complicit in Japanese obstinacy. China is also concerned by the tightening of the US-Japan alliance and US encouragement of a greater regional and global security role for Japan.
President Hu will also raise the Taiwan issue. While the two sides have cooperated well since Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to the White House in December 2003 to keep the lid on the potential for Taiwan independence, the Chen Shui-bian government on Taiwan continues an incremental push of its independence agenda. The latest provocative step was the March 2006 announcement that the National Reunification Council and its guidelines had “ceased to function.”
President Bush will likely reiterate the US commitment to maintaining the “status quo” across the Taiwan Strait, with no unilateral actions on either side to disrupt stability. The president will also likely reiterate the standard mantra of US commitment to the three joint communiqués, as well as the Taiwan Relations Act, the One China Policy, and its desire for the governments in China and on Taiwan to enter into direct dialogue with each other.
While the Taiwan issue has always been the most sensitive issue in the relationship, Beijing and Washington have managed it well in recent years. But regular high-level communication is a necessary condition to successful management, and this meeting offers another chance for both sides to coordinate strategy.






For his part, President Bush is also likely to raise three other issues of great concern in Washington: the trade deficit, intellectual property rights and human rights. The trade deficit reached $203 billion in 2005, as core industries across the country have hollowed out and gone under in the face of outsourcing of production to China. Accordingly, the trade deficit and job loss issue combined have gained great traction in a Congressional election year. Congressional calls for a full floatation of the Chinese currency, and legislative threats to invoke across-the-board 27 percent tariffs on Chinese goods have added fuel to the fire.
The Chinese have tried, in advance of the Hu visit, to reduce the pressure by sending a large commercial delegation on an US buying spree, estimated at $16.2 billion – signing contracts for a range of goods, including 80 Boeing aircraft. In fact, China is now America’s fastest growing export market, but this is little noticed as long as the trade deficit with that nation remains America’s greatest.
Continuing Chinese infringement on intellectual property rights (IPR) is a closely related issue. On the eve of President Hu’s visit, the Joint Committee on Commerce and Trade, a bilateral US-China body, reached agreement on a range of new Chinese actions aimed at stemming and stamping out copyright piracy. The new agreement, like previous agreements, is promising, but it remains to be seen if the Chinese government will actually enforce it.
Human rights in China remain contentious. The last two US State Department annual reports on human rights in China have asserted retrogression, while China now issues its own assessment of US human rights infringements.
Given all that is on their plate, President Bush and President Hu will be lucky to touch briefly on all of these topics. In some past Sino-American summits, the two leaders have been content to engage in a more philosophical exchange about the value of their relationship. They may do so again this time, and that too would be useful, but given the pressing importance of the issues at hand, it is likely to be a real working summit.
That the two presidents can have such a businesslike meeting is a testimony to the maturation of the relationship. President Bush likes to characterize Sino-American relations as “candid, constructive, cooperative, and complex” – this summit is likely to validate his description.
David Shambaugh is professor and director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University, and nonresident senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings Institution.

plz pray,
Sardarzada

__________________
God is dead! God remains dead! And we have killed him! How shall we console ourselves, the most murderous of all murderers? The holiest and the mightiest that the world has hitherto possessed, has bled to death under our knife....

Salaam,

Brother, I was just wondering if you've read all these?

Regards,

__________________
"The race is not over because I haven't won yet."

Adil Memon
Police Service of Pakistan (P.S.P)
37th Common Training Program

sure mere khayal main tu aisa he hai
baqi aap behter jaante hooon gae
last time bhi aap ke ik post isee tarah ke teh
mujhe jo kuch important laga woh main ne share kia
aur ab yeh main aap pe chorta hoon ke aap ise kia naam daite hain
shahyed aap hamesha her kisse pe tanqeed he kerna jaante hain aur is se ziada kuch nahiii
plz don't mind aap mere senior hain aap ke respect kerna mera farz hai
is se ziada aur main kuch nahii kahooon ga


regards,
Sardarzada

__________________
God is dead! God remains dead! And we have killed him! How shall we console ourselves, the most murderous of all murderers? The holiest and the mightiest that the world has hitherto possessed, has bled to death under our knife....

SIR!

Javab dene ka shukriya. Aur izzat se paish aaye iske liye bhi bari meherbani.

Mein darasal aap se yeh sab isliye pooch raha thaa kyoon ke aam tour per loug aik topic ke liye itney articles nahin parhtey. Aur agar aap ne parhey hain to yeh to bohat hi acha hai.

Forum ke doosrey members ki aasani ke liye mein chahta thaa ke aap in sab articles ka agar aik nichour "summary" aik post mein likh dete to sab loug aap se bohat khush hotay. Pointwise hoga to aur acha rahega. Is se aap ko bhi cheezein yaad ho jayeingi. Aur members ko yeh faida hoga ke unko bohat se articles ki information aik post mein mil jayegi aur unka time bach jayega.

Beharhaal, aap ki dil ki baatein sun kar acha lagga. Inshallah, aainda aap ko tung karney se parhez karoonga.

Takleef ke liye maufi talb ki jati hai.

Regards,

__________________
"The race is not over because I haven't won yet."

Adil Memon
Police Service of Pakistan (P.S.P)
37th Common Training Program