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Old Friday, October 08, 2010
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Exclamation Afghan War; Challenges and Oppertunities for Pakistan

The bigger pictureThe Afghan War and Challenges and Opportunities for Pakistan

[/B]s the controversy surrounding the nato attacks across the pakistani border and the closure of transit points to afghanistan the watershed of pakistan-us relations? for the answer, the bigger picture must be understood. drone attacks and us forays into pakistan are destabilising and sometimes seen as a prelude to a us-indian effort to ostra- cise pakistan. this argument holds little water because pakistan is a nuclear-weapon state capable of defending itself and still relevant in global realpolitik. notwithstanding their chequered relationship, the bumpy alliance continues because both the us and pakistan need each other for their geopoliti- cal interests. many believe that islamabad’s protests over the drone attacks are rhetoric as it has an arrangement with the us that allows these attacks. is the recent nato attack the out- come of a similar arrangement? if yes, then it is binding for pakistan to provide logistic and operational support to nato forces. reneging on an agreement may be costly. the closure of transit points in torkham may be to silent critics about the government’s inaction. the joint inquiry to in- vestigate the killing of pakistani soldiers and the foreign min- ister’s brussels visit indicate reconciliatory efforts. pakistan and the us must reassess the basis of their alliance over afghanistan in a win-win paradigm. we must understand us goals in afghanistan. in 2001 these were the destruction of al qaeda but the us only managed to disrupt their doings. al qaeda elements have gone elsewhere and play on a wider geographical canvas and are an evasive target. hence, continuing the afghan war will politically, eco- nomically and militarily bleed the us and its allies. apparent success will be a mixed blessing; a tactical victory that would make little dent on global terrorism. lately, america chose to enlarge its original mandate. it wants to democratise afghanistan and cleanse it of corruption. both challenges are monumental. most afghans believe their us-supported regime doesn’t represent the pakhtun majority and is behind the corruption. this is where india’s efforts to ga- in a foothold in afghanistan and prospects of a coalition to mar- ginalise pakistan lose credence. instead, pakistan is the only co- untry that can effectively play a balancing role in afghanistan. a complete us withdrawal from afghanistan can hardly happen as it will be strategically and politically prohibitive not only for washington but for other capitals too. strategically, a us presence in afghanistan exposes the russian underbelly and contains china. economically, america will find the $1tr worth of mineral reserves tempting. politically, a complete withdrawal means leaving some muslim countries to the mer- cy of al qaeda that will try to trigger uprisings. for america, it may be a loss of face. for pakistan, it may lead to isolation. american domestic politics dictate that the administration should not order a complete withdrawal. obama has low pop- ularity ratings for a seeming lack of commitment to the war effort thus forcing him to keep boots on the ground regard- less of the cost. what are the opportunities for pakistan in this situation? this can be understood by looking at current pakistan-us ties. currently, their interdependence forces both to continue with the jerky coalition. some contend that the us needs pakistan to balance growing chinese influence and to contain india. there are no permanent friends or enemies, only inter- ests. hence, while the us appears to be india’s strategic ally it does not completely trust new delhi. india is close to america because it is a big market, can dominate the indian ocean re- gion and is potentially the best regional counterweight to china. but it is also in washington’s interest not to let its stra- tegic partner outsmart it. hence, an alliance with pakistan helps america maintain its leverage. pakistan also needs the us to contain india, as it cannot do so alone. china is an alter- native but beijing’s trade interests must be kept in mind while assessing the limits of its help to pakistan. whether or not pakistan needs washington, it must have a stable western frontier. only then can it avoid a two-front war against india, which in turn wants to develop a capability to fight a two-front war against pakistan and china under a nuclear overhang. logically, america should have no compelling interest in how afghanistan is governed as long as no threat emanates from the latter. if this was not so, washington would not sup- port an ineffectual regime. likewise, america won’t cut its troops at the cost of its political clout in afghanistan. for geo- graphic and demographic reasons, only pakistan can support america in negotiating a settlement in afghanistan. this, and not the blockage of nato supplies, is the ultimate lever that pakistan has over america. achieving this is, however, a tightrope walk. while it pro- vides the opportunity to stabilise pakistan’s vulnerable fron- tiers and build a lasting friendship with the us, falling down carries the danger of wearing out in the great game and end- ing up unstable and internationally isolated. going by nine years of war in afghanistan, it must be clear that america cannot defeat the afghan taliban. however, the us and pakistan can build an environment that allows the afghans to introduce a truly representative political dispensa- tion. the original goal of the us invasion is no more relevant and current aspirations cannot be fulfilled without pakistan. therefore, both countries must disentangle themselves and build on common interests. such a paradigm shift will have teething problems but hopefully the brussels meetings will be fruitful and we will not forget what we were trying to do in the first place. ¦ the writer is a scholar at the national defence university, islamabad.
IS the controversy surrounding the Nato attacks across the Pakistani border and the closure of transit points to Afghanistan the watershed of Pakistan-US relations? For the answer, the bigger picture must be understood.

Drone attacks and US forays into Pakistan are destabilising and sometimes seen as a prelude to a US-Indian effort to ostracise Pakistan. This argument holds little water because Pakistan is a nuclear-weapon state capable of defending itself and still relevant in global realpolitik. Notwithstanding their chequered relationship, the bumpy alliance continues because both the US and Pakistan need each other for their geopolitical interests. Many believe that Islamabad’s protests over the drone attacks are rhetoric as it has an arrangement with the US that allows these attacks. Is the recent Nato attack the outcome of a similar arrangement? If yes, then it is binding for Pakistan to provide logistic and operational support to Nato forces. Reneging on an agreement may be costly.

The closure of transit points in Torkham may be to silent critics about the government’s inaction. The joint inquiry to investigate the killing of Pakistani soldiers and the foreign minister’s Brussels visit indicate reconciliatory efforts. Pakistan and the US must reassess the basis of their alliance over Afghanistan in a win-win paradigm.

We must understand US goals in Afghanistan. In 2001 these were the destruction of Al Qaeda but the US only managed to disrupt their doings. Al Qaeda elements have gone elsewhere and play on a wider geographical canvas and are an evasive target. Hence, continuing the Afghan war will politically, economically and militarily bleed the US and its allies. Apparent success will be a mixed blessing; a tactical victory that would make little dent on global terrorism.

Lately, America chose to enlarge its original mandate. It wants to democratise Afghanistan and cleanse it of corruption. Both challenges are monumental. Most Afghans believe their US-supported regime doesn’t represent the Pakhtun majority and is behind the corruption. This is where India’s efforts to gain a foothold in Afghanistan and prospects of a coalition to marginalise Pakistan lose credence. Instead, Pakistan is the only country that can effectively play a balancing role in Afghanistan.

A complete US withdrawal from Afghanistan can hardly happen as it will be strategically and politically prohibitive not only for Washington but for other capitals too. Strategically, a US presence in Afghanistan exposes the Russian underbelly and contains China. Economically, America will find the $1tr worth of mineral reserves tempting. Politically, a complete withdrawal means leaving some Muslim countries to the mercy of Al Qaeda that will try to trigger uprisings. For America, it may be a loss of face. For Pakistan, it may lead to isolation.

American domestic politics dictate that the administration should not order a complete withdrawal. Obama has low popularity ratings for a seeming lack of commitment to the war effort thus forcing him to keep boots on the ground regardless of the cost. What are the opportunities for Pakistan in this situation? This can be understood by looking at current Pakistan-US ties.

Currently, their interdependence forces both to continue with the jerky coalition. Some contend that the US needs Pakistan to balance growing Chinese influence and to contain India. There are no permanent friends or enemies, only interests. Hence, while the US appears to be India’s strategic ally it does not completely trust New Delhi. India is close to America because it is a big market, can dominate the Indian Ocean region and is potentially the best regional counterweight to China. But it is also in Washington’s interest not to let its strategic partner outsmart it. Hence, an alliance with Pakistan helps America maintain its leverage. Pakistan also needs the US to contain India, as it cannot do so alone. China is an alternative but Beijing’s trade interests must be kept in mind while assessing the limits of its help to Pakistan. Whether or not Pakistan needs Washington, it must have a stable western frontier. Only then can it avoid a two-front war against India, which in turn wants to develop a capability to fight a two-front war against Pakistan and China under a nuclear overhang.

Logically, America should have no compelling interest in how Afghanistan is governed as long as no threat emanates from the latter. If this was not so, Washington would not support an ineffectual regime. Likewise, America won’t cut its troops at the cost of its political clout in Afghanistan. For geographic and demographic reasons, only Pakistan can support America in negotiating a settlement in Afghanistan. This, and not the blockage of Nato supplies, is the ultimate lever that Pakistan has over America.

Achieving this is, however, a tightrope walk. While it provides the opportunity to stabilise Pakistan’s vulnerable frontiers and build a lasting friendship with the US, falling down carries the danger of wearing out in the great game and ending up unstable and internationally isolated.

Going by nine years of war in Afghanistan, it must be clear that America cannot defeat the Afghan Taliban. However, the US and Pakistan can build an environment that allows the Afghans to introduce a truly representative political dispensation. The original goal of the US invasion is no more relevant and current aspirations cannot be fulfilled without Pakistan. Therefore, both countries must disentangle themselves and build on common interests. Such a paradigm shift will have teething problems but hopefully the Brussels meetings will be fruitful and we will not forget what we were trying to do in the first place.
¦ The writer is a scholar at the National Defence University, Islamabad.
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Old Tuesday, October 12, 2010
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Old Tuesday, October 12, 2010
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