Pak-Afghan Relations and the Afghan Quagmire
 

In every age, Afghanistan somehow secures a central role to play in shaping the future of the world.

Afghanistan is often termed as a 'Black hole' in international politics: Afghanistan 'sucks in'. Afghanistan sucks in both countries and ideologies. Countries in the sense that Afghanistan has shown an uncanny knack of rearranging map of the world by making superpowers vanish and smaller states emerge. Ideology in the sense that Afghanistan has shown an ability to discourage one school of thought at the cost of another, for instance, in the recent history, Afghanistan discouraged Communism but spared Capitalism. Currently, the surplus superpower, the US, and its attendant ideology, Capitalism, are trying to avert the repeat of history at the hands of Afghanistan.

During the medieval ages, the invaders either passed through Afghanistan or originated from Afghanistan to conquer the Indian Subcontinent. During the scientific enlightened age of 17th and 18th century, Afghanistan served as a buffer state in the Great Game played between the Communist and Capitalist blocs.

The war waged by the US in 2001, in the name of War on Terror (WoT), is still ravaging the already devastated Afghanistan and yet no conclusive end is discernible.
The war waged by the US in 2001, in the name of War on Terror (WoT), is still ravaging the already devastated Afghanistan and yet no conclusive end is discernible.



Since November 2008, there have taken place three developments. First, the US President Barack Obama, after getting elected, is intending a withdrawal of the American troops from Afghanistan (in a manner that could be offering the US maximum face-saving and could yield monopoly to the US in the region). Secondly, with the tacit approval of the US, the Afghan President Hamid Karzai is holding talks with the Taliban to join the government and offer the US a safe exit-strategy. Thirdly, the US has formally acknowledged that Pakistan may play a significant role in mitigating a near-disaster situation in Afghanistan. That is how, Pakistan's political importance vis-à-vis other regional players including India is automatically enhanced manifolds.

Pakistan's dilemmas
Geographically, Pakistan is sandwiched between India and Afghanistan. One is world's largest democracy and an expanding economy, whereas the other is world's crisis-ridden (both political and social) country and a shattered economy. The second aspect of the dilemma is that India is bent on having strong relations with Afghanistan and that to the detriment of Pakistan.

Significance of Afghanistan in Pakistan's foreign policy
As a neighbour of Pakistan, Afghanistan occupies a central place in the issues affecting the foreign policy of Pakistan. The significance of Afghanistan increases with the ongoing turmoil on its land (having potential of spilling over to the adjacent countries) and the new Great Game being played in the region. Pakistan finds itself intractably linked with the whole issue the effects of which may have far-reaching bearings on Pakistan. Secondly, owing to its geographical contiguity and ethnic sharing with Afghanistan, Pakistan considers itself a natural player in the whole scheme of affairs related to or going on in Afghanistan. Thirdly, owing to hosting the major chunk of Afghan refugees, Pakistan is a major stakeholder in whatever situation emerges in Afghanistan. Fourthly, the ongoing WoT is affecting Pakistan both politically and economically thereby making Pakistan a major regional player in settling the terror situation both in Pakistan and across the western border. Fifthly, Pakistan is keen to shun the ideology of Islamic fundamentalism being exported from Afghanistan to Pakistan thereby making Pakistan conscious of preservation of its democratic values. Sixthly, Pakistan is keen to make its society free of drugs and arms which is not possible unless there is peace and order in Afghanistan.


The dilemma is that India is bent on having strong relations with Afghanistan and that to the detriment of Pakistan.
Afghanistan's Brief Country Profile
Neighbours & Borders

• Pakistan – 2430 km
• Tajikistan – 1206 km
• Iran – 936 km
• Turkmenistan – 744 km
• Uzbekistan – 137 km
• China – 76 km

Analysis: Afghanistan shares its longest border with Pakistan followed by Tajikistan, Iran, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The border of Afghanistan with China is the shortest one. Interestingly, that is how Tajikistan, Iran, Turkme-nistan and Uzbekistan together are a contending unit against Pakistan for supremacy of their relevant ethnic groups in Afghanistan.
Ethnic Groups
• Pashtun – 42%
• Tajik – 27%
• Hazara – 9%
• Uzbek – 9%
• Aimak – 4%
• Turkmen – 3%
• Baloch – 2%
• Others – 4%

Analysis: The Pushtuns are the major ethnic group followed by the Tajiks. Denying due representation to the Pushtuns in the current governmental set-up in Kabul is a major source of trouble both for Hamid Karzai, the President, and the US, the mentor. If the Pushtuns had been given due representation at the centre, the US and its allies would not have seeking today the face-saving and an honourable exit strategy. Now, the US has realized importance of speaking to and coming to terms with the Pushtuns whether they are the Taliban or not.

Religion
• Sunnis – 84%
• Shiites – 15%
• Others – 1%

Analysis: The followers of the Sunni sect of Islam are in majority in Afghanistan but the Shia sect of Islam also constitutes 15%. Both the ethnic and sectarian distributions call for a democratic (and representative) government in Kabul.

Languages
• Afghan-Persian (Dari) – 50%
• Pashto – 35%
• Turkic Languages – 11%
• 30 minor languages – 4%

Analysis: Dari is spoken by the majority of Afghans irrespective of their ethnic or sectarian affiliations thereby giving the language a cross-ethnic dimension. The language aspect further diversifies the Afghans transcending their ethnic and sectarian associations.

Geo-strategic significance of Afghanistan

Direct
• Afghanistan is located at the junction of three strategic regions of South Asia, Central Asia, and West Asia.
• Sparse population, rugged terrain, and worrier tribes make Afghanistan a dumping ground of superpowers of their times.

Indirect
• Afghanistan is also called a region at the crossroads of history. That is, in the 21st Century, Afghanistan is still keen to practise the medieval age customs and traditions.
• A potential land-bridge for oil and gas pipelines and trade route to and from Central Asia and West Asia.
• The landlocked nature of Central Asian offers Afghanistan significance of a transit-trade route – to have access to the sea ports of Indian and Arabian seas.

Interests of Foreign Powers in the affairs of Afghanistan
US interests
• Energy resources of Central Asia
• Containing China and Iran
• Countering Russian influence in the region
• Checking the outflow of narcotics
• Checking the export of religi-ous extremism
• Closely monitoring the cooperative framework between China, Russia, Iran, CARs, India, and Pakistan
• Establish a broad-based, moderate and US-friendly government in Afghanistan

Russian interests
• Reasserting itself in its backyard and avenge its defeat (i.e. collapse of the former USSR)
• Countering the US control and regional designs
• Securing a control over gas and oil resources of CARs
• Preventing spread of Islamic extremism to Chechnya

Chinese interests
• Future energy requirements and possible supplies demand from Central Asia and West Asia including Iran
• Halting the unrest in adjoining Chinese territories (owing to the spill over effect)
• Neutralizing the presence of US/NATO forces in the region

Indian interests
• Creating friction between Pakistan and Afghanistan to keep the former under pressure
• Instigating a covert low-intensity conflict (LIC) against Pakistan to keep Pakistan busy with the conflicting coming from the western border
• Exploring the trade opportunities with the countries of Central and West Asia
• Watching its geo-strategic interests through empowerment of the Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras against the Pushtuns.

Iranian interests
• Neutralizing the effects of the presence of US/NATO forces
• Safeguarding the minority Shia population residing in Afghanistan
• Securing its share in the reconstruction of Afghanistan
• Reversing the tide of Afghan refugees

Pakistan's interests
• Political interests:
Ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan
Supporting Pakistan-friendly gove-rnment in Kabul

Neutralizing the Indian influence
Settling the border issues
Reversing the tide of Afghan refugees

• Economic interests:
Securing its share in reconstruction of Afghanistan
Securing a transit trade access to the CARs
Securing an uninterrupted supply of Gas and Oil from the CARs and Iran

• Security interests:
Precluding Talibanisation in Afghanistan (and thereby Taliban-isation in Pakistan)
Preventing cross-border terrorism
Prompting departure of the US/ NATO forces from Afghanistan.


Dr Waheed Asghar (CSP)

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