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Old Friday, March 30, 2012
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Default Current Affairs Notes

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)


ESTABLISHMENT

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, was established on 8 August 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand, with the signing of the ASEAN Declaration (Bangkok Declaration) by the Founding Fathers of ASEAN, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
Brunei Darussalam then joined on 7 January 1984, Viet Nam on 28 July 1995, Lao PDR and Myanmar on 23 July 1997, and Cambodia on 30 April 1999, making up what is today the ten Member States of ASEAN.
ASEAN covers an area of 4.46 million km², 3% of the total land area of Earth, with a population of approximately 600 million people, 8.8% of the world population. In 2010, its combined nominal GDP had grown to US$1.8 trillion. If ASEAN was a single entity, it would rank as the ninth largest economy in the world.

AIMS AND PURPOSES

As set out in the ASEAN Declaration, the aims and purposes of ASEAN are:
1. To accelerate the economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region through joint endeavours in the spirit of equality and partnership in order to strengthen the foundation for a prosperous and peaceful community of Southeast Asian Nations;
2. To promote regional peace and stability through abiding respect for justice and the rule of law in the relationship among countries of the region and adherence to the principles of the United Nations Charter;
3. To promote active collaboration and mutual assistance on matters of common interest in the economic, social, cultural, technical, scientific and administrative fields;
4. To provide assistance to each other in the form of training and research facilities in the educational, professional, technical and administrative spheres;
5. To collaborate more effectively for the greater utilisation of their agriculture and industries, the expansion of their trade, including the study of the problems of international commodity trade, the improvement of their transportation and communications facilities and the raising of the living standards of their peoples;
6. To promote Southeast Asian studies; and
7. To maintain close and beneficial cooperation with existing international and regional organisations with similar aims and purposes, and explore all avenues for even closer cooperation among themselves.

FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES

In their relations with one another, the ASEAN Member States have adopted the following fundamental principles, as contained in the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) of 1976:
1. Mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity, and national identity of all nations;
2. The right of every State to lead its national existence free from external interference, subversion or coercion;
3. Non-interference in the internal affairs of one another;
4. Settlement of differences or disputes by peaceful manner;
5. Renunciation of the threat or use of force; and
6. Effective cooperation among themselves.

ASEAN COMMUNITY

The ASEAN Vision 2020, adopted by the ASEAN Leaders on the 30th Anniversary of ASEAN, agreed on a shared vision of ASEAN as a concert of Southeast Asian nations, outward looking, living in peace, stability and prosperity, bonded together in partnership in dynamic development and in a community of caring societies.
At the 9th ASEAN Summit in 2003, the ASEAN Leaders resolved that an ASEAN Community shall be established.
At the 12th ASEAN Summit in January 2007, the Leaders affirmed their strong commitment to accelerate the establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2015 and signed the Cebu Declaration on the Acceleration of the Establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2015.
The ASEAN Community is comprised of three pillars, namely the ASEAN Political-Security Community, ASEAN Economic Community and ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community. Each pillar has its own Blueprint, and, together with the Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI) Strategic Framework and IAI Work Plan Phase II (2009-2015), they form the Roadmap for and ASEAN Community 2009-2015.

ASEAN CHARTER

The ASEAN Charter serves as a firm foundation in achieving the ASEAN Community by providing legal status and institutional framework for ASEAN. It also codifies ASEAN norms, rules and values; sets clear targets for ASEAN; and presents accountability and compliance.
The ASEAN Charter entered into force on 15 December 2008. A gathering of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers was held at the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta to mark this very historic occasion for ASEAN.
With the entry into force of the ASEAN Charter, ASEAN will henceforth operate under a new legal framework and establish a number of new organs to boost its community-building process.
In effect, the ASEAN Charter has become a legally binding agreement among the 10 ASEAN Member States.

Enlargement of ASEAN:-

During the 1990s, the bloc experienced an increase in both membership and drive for further integration. In 1990, Malaysia proposed the creation of an East Asia Economic Caucus comprising the then members of ASEAN as well as the People's Republic of China, Japan, and South Korea, with the intention of counterbalancing the growing influence of the United States in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and in the Asian region as a whole. This proposal failed, however, because of heavy opposition from the United States and Japan. Despite this failure, member states continued to work for further integration and ASEAN Plus Three was created in 1997.
In 1992, the Common Effective Preferential Tariff (CEPT) scheme was signed as a schedule for phasing tariffs and as a goal to increase the region’s competitive advantage as a production base geared for the world market. This law would act as the framework for the ASEAN Free Trade Area. After the East Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, a revival of the Malaysian proposal was established in Chiang Mai, known as the Chiang Mai Initiative, which calls for better integration between the economies of ASEAN as well as the ASEAN Plus Three countries (China, Japan, and South Korea).
Aside from improving each member state's economies, the bloc also focused on peace and stability in the region. On 15 December 1995, the Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty was signed with the intention of turning Southeast Asia into a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone. The treaty took effect on 28 March 1997 after all but one of the member states have ratified it. It became fully effective on 21 June 2001, after the Philippines ratified it, effectively banning all nuclear weapons in the region.
Early 2011, East Timor plans to submit a letter of application to the ASEAN Secretariat in Indonesia to be the eleventh member of ASEAN at the summit in Jakarta. Indonesia has shown a warm welcome to East Timor.
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Old Friday, March 30, 2012
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Default Baluchistan conflict

Baluchistan conflict


The Government of Pakistan over Baluchistan, the country's largest province. Recently, separatists have also clashed with Islamic Republic of Iran over its respective Baloch region, which borders Pakistan. Shortly after Pakistan's creation in 1947, the Army of the Islamic Republic had to subdue insurgents based in Kalat who rejected the King of Kalat decision to accede to Pakistan, reminiscent of the Indian Army's operation in the Principality state of Hyderabad. The movement gained momentum during the 1960s, and amid consistent political disorder, the government ordered a military operation into the region in 1973, assisted by Iran, and inflicted heavy casualties on the separatists. The movement was largely quelled after the imposition of martial law in 1977, after which Baluchistan witnessed significant development. After insurgency groups again mushroomed in the 1990s and 2000s, the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and the war in North-West Pakistan exacerbated the conflict, most recently manifested in the killings of non-Baloch settlers in the province by separatists since 2006.

Background:-


1. First conflict 1948 (led by Prince Abdul Karim Khan)

In April 1948, Baloch nationalists claim that the central government sent the Pakistan army, which allegedly forced Mir Ahmed Yar Khan to give up his state, Kalat. Kalat was a landlocked British protectorate that comprised roughly 22%–23% of Baluchistan. Mir Ahmed Yar Khan signed an accession agreement ending Kalat's de facto independence. His brother, Prince Abdul Karim Khan, was a powerful governor of a section of Kalat, a position that he was removed from after accession. He decided to initiate an insurgency against Pakistan. On the night of May 16, 1948 Prince Abdul Karim Khan initiated a separatist movement against the Pakistani government. He conducted guerrilla warfare based in Afghanistan against the Pakistan army.

2. Second conflict 1958–59 (led by Nawab Nowroz Khan)

Nawab Nowroz Khan took up arms in resistance to the One Unit policy, which decreased government represenation for tribal leaders. He and his followers started a guerrilla war against Pakistan. Nowroz Khan and his followers were charged with treason and arrested and confined in Hyderabad jail. Five of his family members (sons and nephews) were subsequently hanged under charges of aiding murder of Pakistani troops and treason. Nawab Nowroz Khan later died in captivity.

3. Third conflict 1963–69 (led by Nawab Khair Baksh Marri)

After the second conflict, the Federal government sent the Army to build new military bases in the key conflict areas of Baluchistan in order to resist further chaos. Nawab Khair Baksh marri appointed an unknow shero marri to lead like-minded militants in guerrilla warfare by creating their own insurgent bases spread out over 45,000 miles (72,000 km) of land, from the Mengal tribal area in the south to the Marri and Bugti tribal areas in the north. Their goal was to force Pakistan to share revenue generated from the Sui gas fields with the tribal leaders. The insurgents bombed railway tracks and ambushed convoys. The Army retaliated by destroying vast areas of the Marri tribe's land. This insurgency ended in 1969 and the Baloch separatists agreed to a ceasefire. Yahya Khan abolished the "One Unit" policy. This eventually led to the recognition of Baluchistan as the fourth province of West Pakistan (present-day Pakistan) in 1970, containing all the Baluchistani princely states, the High Commissioners Province and Gwadar, an 800 km2 coastal area purchased by the Pakistani Government from Oman.

4. Fourth conflict 1973–77 (led by Nawab Khair Baksh Marri)

Citing treason, President Bhutto dismissed the provincial governments of Baluchistan and NWFP and imposed martial law in those provinces. Dismissal of the provincial governments led to armed insurgency. Khair Bakhsh Marri formed the Baluchistan People’s Liberation Front (BPLF), which led large numbers of Marri and Mengal tribesmen into guerrilla warfare against the central government. According to some authors, the Pakistani military lost 300 to 400 soldiers during the conflict with the Balochi separatists, while between 7,300 and 9,000 Balochi militants and civilians were killed.

5. Fifth conflict 2004 – to date (led by Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti and Mir Balach Marri)

In 2005, the Baluch political leaders Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti and Mir Balach Marri presented a 15-point agenda to the Pakistan government. Their stated demands included greater control of the province's resources and a Moratorium on the construction of military bases. On 15 December 2005, Inspector-General of Frontier Corps Maj Gen Shujaat Zamir Dar and his deputy Brig Salim Nawaz (the current IGFC) were wounded after shots were fired at their helicopter in Baluchistan province. The provincial interior secretary later said that "both of them were wounded in the leg but both are in stable condition." The two men had been visiting Kohlu, about 220 km (135 miles) south-east of Quetta, when their aircraft came under fire. The helicopter landed safely.
In August 2006, Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, 79 years old, was killed in fighting with the Pakistan Army in which at least 60 Pakistani soldiers and 7 officers were killed. He was charged by Pakistan's government of a series of bomb blasts, killings of the people he professed to protect and the rocket attack on the President Pervez Musharraf.
In April 2009, Baloch National Movement president Ghulam Mohammed Baloch and two other nationalist leaders (Lala Munir and Sher Muhammad), were seized from a small legal office and were allegedly "handcuffed, blindfolded and hustled into a waiting pickup truck which is in still use of intelligence forces in front of their lawyer and neighboring shopkeepers."The gunmen were allegedly speaking in Persian (a national language of neighboring Afghanistan and Iran) Five days later on April 8 their bodies, "riddled with bullets" were found in a commercial area.The BLA claims Pakistani forces were behind the killings, though international experts have deemed it odd that the Pakistani forces would be careless enough to allow the bodies to be found so easily and 'light Baluchistan on fire' (Herald) if they were truly responsible. The discovery of the bodies sparked “rioting and weeks of strikes, demonstrations and civil resistance" in cities and towns around Baluchistan.
On August 12, 2009, Khan of Kalat Mir Suleiman Dawood declared himself ruler of Baluchistan and formally made announcement of a Council for Independent Baluchistan. The Council's claimed domain includes "Baloch of Iran", as well as Pakistani Baluchistan, but does not include Afghani Baloch regions,and the Council contains "all separatist leaders including Nawabzada Bramdagh Bugti." He claims that "the UK had a moral responsibility to raise the issue of Baluchistan’s illegal occupation at international level."

Alleged Foreign Support for Baluch rebels

Pakistan has repeatedly accused India, and occasionally the U.S., of supporting the Baluch rebels in order to destabilize the country. India has however categorically denied the allegations on its part, stating that no concrete evidence has been provided. The facts are controversial, but Pakistan still continues to insist. Iran has repeatedly accused America of supporting Jundullah. After his capture, Jundullah leader Abdulmalek Rigi confirmed these allegations. The US has however denied this. However, neutral observers have repeatedly noted that the Baloch nationalist groups are poorly-trained in military tactics and strategy, and are currently outgunned by the Pakistani state. The groups are mainly armed with small non-automatic weapons and AK-47s, which are widely available in Pakistan, and they currently are not skilled at using Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), which is seen as strong circumstantial evidence that they are not supported by outside powers, contrary to the repeated statements of the Pakistani state.
Baluchi rebels in Pakistan are said to receive major support from the Taliban in Afghanistan. In the 1980s the CIA, the Iraqi Intelligence Service, Pakistani Sunni extremist group Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan and the Mujahedin e-Kalq all supported a Baluchi tribal uprising against Iran. Pakistan has also accused India of giving citizenship to senior Balouch SeparatistSelig S. Harrison of the George Soros funded Center for International Policy has been calling for dividing Pakistan and supporting an independent Baluch province as a means to thwart growing relations between Islamabad and Beijing, as Pakistan has given China a base at Gwadar. These views have been separately promoted by Ralph Peters, an zionist strategic affairs analyst and former U.S. Army officer, and an expert on the Middle East and the Islamic world.

Projects in Baluchistan


Saindak Copper Gold Project:

Saindak Copper-Gold Mine is located in Saindak town, district Chaghi Baluchistan, Pakistan. The discovery of copper deposits at Saindak was made in the 1970s in collaboration with a Chinese engineering firm. The Saindak Copper-Gold Project was set up by Saindak Metals Ltd, a company wholly owned by the government of Pakistan, by the end of 1995 at a cost of Rs.13.5 billion.
Pakistan and China signed a formal contract worth $350 million for development of Saindak Copper-Gold Project. The project was leased for 10 year to a Chinese company called Metallurgical Construction Corp (MCC), which is due to expire in September 2012. Under the lease agreement, MCC was to run the project on an annual rent of $500,000 plus a 50 per cent share of copper sales to the Pakistani government.
The project was based on estimated ore reserves of 412 million tonnes containing on average 0.5 gram of gold per ton and 1.5 grams of silver per ton. According to official estimates, the project has the capacity to produce 15,800 ton of blister copper annually, containing 1.5 ton of gold and 2.8 ton of silver.

Reko Diq Copper Gold Project:-

Reko Diq is a small town in Chagai District, Baluchistan, Pakistan, in a desert area, 70 kilometres north-west of Naukundi, close to Pakistan's border with Iran and Afghanistan. The area is located in Tethyan belt that stretches all the way from Turkey and Armenia into Pakistan.
Reko Diq has proven gold and copper reserves worth US $125 billion. It is estimated that area has 12.3 million tons of world class copper and 20.9 million ounces of gold. However, later it has been claimed by several Pakistani scholars that the gold and copper reserves worth is far more than estimated earlier, that is 1000 billion dollars.
The Reko Diq Mining Project is a US$ 3.3 billion capital investment project that promises to build and operate a world class copper-gold open-pit mine at Reko Diq. TCC (Tethyan Copper Company), which is actually Canadian-Chilian based company, is responsible for minning at Reko Diq.

Gawadar:-

Gawadar Port is a developing warm-water, deep-sea port situated at Gwadar in Baluchistan province of Pakistan at the apex of the Arabian Sea and at the entrance of the Persian Gulf, about 460 km west of Karachi and approximately 75 km (47 mi) east of Pakistan's border with Iran. The port is located on the eastern bay of a natural hammerhead-shaped peninsula jutting out into the Arabian Sea from the coastline.

Background:-

On 8 September 1958, Pakistan purchased the Gwadar enclave from Oman for $3 million. Gwadar officially became part of Pakistan on 8 December 1958. At the time, Gwadar was a small and underdeveloped fishing village with a population of a few thousand.
The Pakistani government integrated Gwadar into Baluchistan province on 1 July 1977 as the district headquarters of the newly formed Gwadar District.
In the 1993, the Government of Pakistan formally conceived the plan to develop Gwadar into a major port city with a deep-sea port and connect it with Pakistan's highway and rail networks. On 22 March 2002, the Government of Pakistan began construction of Gwadar Port, a modern deep-sea port, the first phase of which was completed in December 2005. Gwadar Port became operational in December 2009.
The city underwent major construction from 2002-07. In 2002, Pakistan's National Highway Authority (NHA) began construction of the 653 km-long Makran Coastal Highway linking Gwadar with Karachi via Pasni and Ormara and onwards with the rest of the National Highways of Pakistan, which was completed in 2004. In 2003, the Gwadar Development Authority was established to oversee the planning and development of Gwadar. In 2004, Pakistan's NHA began construction of the 820-km long M8 motorway linking Gwadar with Ratodero in Sindh province via Turbat, Hoshab, Awaran and Khuzdar and onwards with the rest of the Motorways of Pakistan. In 2006, the Gwadar Development Authority conceived, developed and adopted a 50-year Master Plan for Gwadar. In 2007, the Civil Aviation Authority of Pakistan acquired 4,300 acres to construct a new greenfield airport, the New Gwadar International Airport, on 6,000 acres, at an estimated cost of Rs. 7.5 billion. China has funded 80% of the initial $248 million construction of the city.However China has not announced being requested to operate the port by Pakistan.

Importance of Gawadar Port for China:-

Gwadar Port is being constructed in two phases with heavy investment from China. Technical and financial feasibility studies were commenced by the Government of Pakistan in 1993 but construction did not commence until 2002. The Gwadar Port was built on a turnkey basis by China. It was inaugurated in the spring of 2007 by then Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf. Upon completion of the first phase, the Port of Singapore Authority was hired for the management of the Port. Gwadar Port is now being expanded into a deep sea port and naval base with Chinese technical and financial assistance. Gwadar Port became operational in 2008 with the first ship to dock bringing 52.000 tonnes of wheat from Canada. Pakistan's Minister of Ports and Shipping Sardar Nabil Ahmed Khan Gabol officially inaugurated the Port on 21 December 2008.
China has acknowledged that Gwadar’s strategic value is no less than that of the Karakoram Highway, which helped cement the China-Pakistan relationship. Beijing is also interested in turning it into an energy-transport hub by building an oil pipeline from Gwadar into China's Xinjiang region. The planned pipeline will carry crude oil sourced from Arab and African states. Such transport by pipeline will cut freight costs and also help insulate the Chinese imports from interdiction by hostile naval forces in case of any major war.
Commercially, it is hoped that the Gwadar Port would generate billions of dollars in revenues and create at least two million jobs. In 2007, the government of Pakistan handed over port operations to PSA Singapore for 25 years, and gave it the status of a Tax Free Port for the following 40 years.

Missing Persons In Baluchistan:-

The most pressing and hurtful issue right now, though, is that of the ‘missing’ people. Human rights groups and Baloch political parties claim as many as 13,000 people are missing in the province, while the provincial government acknowledges fewer than 1,000 people have been picked up. Even if the true number lies somewhere in between, these statistics need to be reconciled. After that, a promise needs to be given that no citizen of Baluchistan need ever fear for his life just for exercising his right to political dissent.

Target Killing in Baluchistan:-

According to Baluchistan police records, there were 256 incidents of targeting in Baluchistan in 2009 that killed 200 people and injured 387. In 2010, 231 incidents were reported that killed 255 and injured 498. In the first three months of 2011, at least 39 incidents have occurred, which killed 38 and injured 66. Baluchistan Constabulary Commandant Ghulam Shabbir Shah, speaking in Karachi recently, said that target killings are set to break all previous records in the province.

Various shades of targets

According to Shah, no target killings are reported in the province’s Pashtun-dominated areas, including Musakhel, Zhob, Loralai, Ziarat, Pishin, Harnai and Sibi.
The claim was confirmed by Pakhtunkhwa Awami Milli Party’s senior leader Abdul Rahim Khan Mandokhel but, he said, Pakhtun Baloch have been targeted in two or three cases. “Some unsuccessful attempts have been made to create a wedge between the Pakhtuns and Baloch,” he said.
Most target killing and terrorism incidents are reported in the districts of Quetta, Mastung, Bolan, Noshki, Kalat, Khuzdar, Kech, Gwadar, Lasbela and Panjgur. Four types of target killings are reported in Baluchistan: Attacks on people who have settled in the province, assassinations of policemen and Frontier Corps (FC) personnel, sectarian killings and murders of political workers.

1. Settlers

Settlers in Baluchistan are numbered at least 461,328 and mostly comprise Punjabis, Seraikis and Urdu-speaking people. According to police statistics, based on inquiry and FIRs, at least 180 settlers have been shot dead between 2009 and March 2011.
Officials admit that investigations into most target killings of settlers remain unsolved.
“There is a joke in the province that if you want authorities to stop pursuing a murder case, have it claimed by one of the many rebel groups operating in Baluchistan,” says National Party Vice-President Hasil Bizenjo.
One such case is that of University of Baluchistan’s Professor Nazima Talib whose first death anniversary approaches on April 27.
“These cases are difficult to crack because Baloch people sympathise with rebel groups and, despite knowing who the murderers are, choose to remain quiet,” says Shah.

2. Security personnel

At least 120 policemen and 66 FC personnel have been killed between 2009 and March 2011.
Shah says that despite clear evidence that police have suffered more, there is a severe lack of resources. “It is very easy to blame civilian institutions for failing to curb crime. But the truth is we don’t have the resources to even fight petty dacoits who have more sophisticated arms and equipment,” he said. On the other hand, FC and army units even get food rations for troops.

3. Sectarian

Sectarian killings have been mostly targeted against Hazara Shias, who came to Baluchistan decades ago from Afghanistan and Iran. Police and counter-terrorism officials say that anti-Shia militant groups such as Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) are active in Baluchistan.
But Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl’s (JUI-F) Secretary-General Maulana Abdul Ghafoor Haideri, who hails from Kalat, says he doesn’t know if the SSP or LeJ are involved. “Experience shows that the state and intelligence agencies are the ones behind groups that instigate sectarian violence and ethnic strife,” he said.

4. Political

Political party workers allege that they are being targeted not only by the state but by rebels as well.
Bizenjo, whose party has lost three senior leaders, says the heavily-armed rebels are against nationalists because “they say that you talk about federation when we are here up in the mountains waging a battle against the state.”
Baluchistan National Party-Mengal’s (BNP-M) Dr Jehanzaib Jamaldini says the party lost one of their best leaders Habib Jalib last year in a target killing. “All evidence points to state elements being behind the murder,” he said.
Hundreds of Baloch men, including political workers, have gone missing in the province.
Bizenjo believes Baluchistan’s security situation is interconnected with Fata and Afghanistan and violence is bound to continue unless things improve there. “Until it is decided that nowhere in the country will anyone be allowed to hold a gun, the state will not be able to establish its writ and target killings will continue,” he said.
Haideri says the government should either accept failure and step down or admit that it is involved in target killings in the province.
Analysis:-
It has long been an open secret that paramilitary forces and intelligence agencies have been holding sway in Baluchistan. This was finally acknowledged by the province’s advocate general, Salahuddin Mengal, in front of the Supreme Court, when he revealed that the Frontier Constabulary (FC) was picking up and even killing people. Although not a surprise, this revelation is important because the Supreme Court is the only institution in the country that has shown the courage to take on the army. The court must now haul up senior officers of the FC to explain the role it is playing in Baluchistan.
However, the Supreme Court alone cannot solve Baluchistan’s problems. The utter lack of confidence the Baloch have in the army and the federal government requires much greater action. Separatist sentiment is now running deep in the province and the provincial government lacks legitimacy because most political figures have boycotted mainstream politics. Bringing them back into the fold should be an immediate priority. This would require the army to recede and take a low profile, and an accounting of all those who went missing in the province. Following that, a far greater share in the spoils of Baluchistan’s economic development needs to be given to locals. From the development of a deep-sea port in Gwadar to royalties in mining projects, the Baloch feel they have been deliberately cheated out of profits from their resources. Only after this is rectified, will the separatist parties begin to tone down their rhetoric.
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Old Friday, March 30, 2012
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Default Clash of Civilizations

Clash of Civilizations


World Politics is entering in a new phase which will be end of history,the return of traditional rivalries between nation states and the decline of nation state from conflicting pulls of tribalism and globalism. Fundamental conflicts would not be ideological or economic but cultural conflicts. Nation states would remain the most dominant and powerful actors.Clash of civilization will dominate the global politics. With the peace of Westphalia conflict of western world were among princes, emperors, absolute or constitutional monarchs to expand their armies, bureaucracies, mercantilist economic strength. In this process they created nation states beginning with French revolution. The principle lines of conflict were between the nations rather princes.

ANALYSIS

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, many scholars predicted that the future of world and where nations would advance. Huntington’s idea in ‘the clash of civilization’ is a representative case among the various views on the new world and it caused lots of debates about the pros and cons of his thought. In the ‘clash of civilization,’ Huntington argues that conflicts of contemporary world (after the end of Cold War) are not ideological nor economical but cultural and phenomenon such as confrontations and antagonisms among nations which are caused by clashes of different civilizations would rise remarkably. However, Said criticized that ‘the clash of civilization’ is a creature of the imperative conception that the West should hold the hegemony of ‘new world order.’ This essay, therefore, explores the theory of ‘the clash of civilization’ and criticizes several points which are mentioned in it.
A civilization is the highest cultural grouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity people have short that which distinguishes human from other species. It is defined both by common objective elements, such as language, history,and religion. In short, while Huntington is
right to see religion as a factor in the coming era of world politics, the role of religion will go well beyond serving as a touchstone for culture. Religion is more than culture. It transcends civilizations. In the end, to listen to the believers among us, it will transcend history itself.
Harvard Professor Samuel P. Huntington caused intellectual explosion by publishing his article clash of civilizations in the American journal Foreign Affairs in 1993. He asserts Civilizations are the largest aggregates that command human loyalties and account for much of the bloodshed in the recorded human history. Cold war marked a brief departure from it but now old enemies could go to the past time, waging wars against each other.
The biggest threat to the west at present comes from China and Islam. He argues that now the cold war had ended, future conflicts in the world politics would be less between states and more between civilizations or coalitions of culture.
He asserts his point of view,
In this emerging era of cultural conflict the United States must forge alliances with similar cultures and spread its values wherever possible. With alien civilizations the West must be accommodating if possible, but confrontational if necessary. In the final analysis, however, all civilizations will have to learn to tolerate each other.”
There is now a danger of hot war of religion to succeed the cold war of ideologies, the new trend between America and allies, on the one hand, and Muslim countries such as Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Libya, Sudan, and Somalia, on the other hand. Both American capitalism and Russian Commission were born out of European culture.

Present Scenario of mistrust and bloodshed:

The 9/11 attack was termed as beginning of clash of civilizations, when Tony Blair exclaimed as,

“They have attacked on our civilization.”

President Bush declared war against Afghanistan as Crusades. The question arises whether the significance of September 11, 2001, the attacks on the US, the devastation of Afghanistan, the Israeli onslaught on the Palestinians homeland and Lebanon, the plans to divide Iraq and invade Iran Somalia, and Sudan, all add up to an unfolding conflict between the United States and its closet allies (Israel and UK) on the one hand, and more and more Muslim countries, on the other hand.

The tumult caused by the publication of the caricature of the Holy Prophet in the Norwegian Newspaper. The growing phenomenon of linking fundamentalism to extremism and extremism to Islam and Islam to terrorism sent a shocking wave to Enlightened Muslims.Clear discrimination against members of the Muslim community in Switzerland.No French citizenship for burka-clad women’s husband.

Causes of Clash of Civilizations:


US hegmony:

• American – Gulliver of the globe.
• Economic globalization under American influence.
• Information globalization under American influence.
• Comprehensive globalization under American influence.
• One super power and security system for the globe.
• First among unequal: US is so far ahead of its nearest military rival, Russia; its nearest economic rival, Japan/china its technological rival Germany.

Why Civilizations will Clash?

The conflict of future will occur along the cultural fault lines separating civilization.
(1).Differences among civilization are basic.
(2)World is becoming a small place.
(3)Process of Economic modernization and social change.
(4)Growth of civilization is enhanced by the dual role of the west.
(5)Cultural differences are less easily compromised and resolved than political and economic ones.
(6)Economic nationalism is increasing Clash of civilization has two levels
(a)Micro Level
(b)Macro Level

Hidden Objectives under this Theory:

A clash of culture did occur when President Bush used to Taliban, the Language of ultimatum over surrendering us Usama, just hand over Usama Bin Laden and his thugs. There is nothing to talk about. It shows he was trying to get the Taliban to say NO, so that Bush could embark on his long awaited military action to capture Afghanistan.
The threat of weapons of mass destruction from North Korea is more real than that of Iraq, but till now 6,00,000 Iraqis have been butchered with their President hanged.

For ‘Greater Israel’ Hezbollah, Iran and Syria are on the hit list as their culture of Violence in the words of Bush. “Put future threats to the security of America.”

Pluralistic Dimensions of Islamic Civilization:

Islam was not spread by sword, as misinterpreted by Pope, the living evidence is Arab Land itself where millions of Christian and the Jews are practicing their faith with complete liberty. Ruthless killing of innocent citizens committed by Napolean, Chengiz khan and observed in the world wars are much greater than by Saddam or any other Muslim Despot.

In the Muslim world, the women are awarded more dignity than in the west, far less prostitution than in the west, no beauty competitions. Sons in the Muslim world respect their mothers more than sons in the west. There was ethnic cleansing which displaced thousands of Palestinians to make room for the Jews. An ideology was formed in which some one from the Ukraine who claims to have had a Jewish ancestors two thousands years ago had more rights under Israel’s Law of Return than Palestinian who ran away from Israeli borders in 1948.

The Role of Religion in Huntington’s paradigm

The role of religion is a problem in Huntington’s paradigm. As noted, in sorting the world along civilizational lines, he assigns religion a preeminemt place. More than any other factor, according to Huntington, religious affiliation signifies "who we are" and "who we are not." It identifies kin and marks prospective rivals. Yet implicit in Huntington’s argument is the notion that religion in its own right is without standing. Religion illuminates politics, but should play no independent role in politics. (It is a safe bet that when Huntington calls for the revival of Western civilization he is not advocating restoration of One Holy Roman Catholic and Apostolic Church exercising authority over secular affairs.) For Huntington, religion—particularly religion in the West—is an anachronism, something that was itself once alive and powerful but that now survives largely as artifact or memento. Yet in thus consigning religion to role of cultural ID card, Huntington misconstrues its significance, both politically and otherwise.

Suggestions to make this world Heaven:


• Intellectual and collective effort

The present ongoing clash is not a physical phenomenon and does no require use of force, which has proved a big failure, even after using Hi-Tech weapons. Rather it demands intellectual and collective effort by all responsible scholars, Heads of States, Soldiers and Politicians.

• Inter faith dialogue

Inter faith dialogue to create harmony because Islam gives high esteem to all other religions of book and their prophets.

• True Muslim scholars

True Muslim scholars in collaboration with other Priests, can hold joint Seminars to generate harmony and shed clouds of ignorance and prejudice.

• UN

The world body UN should fear the dreadful end of League of Nations, so it needs vitality and firmness to implement its fair decisions, irrespective US influence which has divided the world.

• Media power

Media power can be used for bridging the gulf among biased nations and cultures.

• Education system

Education system is a basic tool in polishing individuals with qualities of compassion and Humanism.
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Default Drone Attacks, FATA and Haqqani Network

Drone Attacks, FATA and Haqqani Network


Introduction


The use of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, is a new technology used in modern warfare. An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), also known as a Unmanned aircraft System (UAS) or a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) or unmanned aircraft functions either by the remote control of a navigator or pilot (called a Combat Systems Officer on UCAVs) or autonomously, that is, as a self-directing entity. Their largest use is within military applications.
In the current so-called ‘War on Terror’, the same has been frequently used by the United States in Pakistan and Afghanistan. A lot has been said against American drone attacks as a violation of sovereignty of Pakistan but the issue is getting more intense by each passing day. When the US drones attack Pakistan’s tribal areas, it is not just the ten, twenty or fifty innocent civilians they kill but it creates the anti-US sentiments in masses and a global feeling of disgust against US. Few stay mum and numb but there is large number of victims who vent their hatred very violently against US and its ally Pakistan. US is insensitive to the fact that civilian killings in these drone attacks provides reason to the youngsters for joining terrorist groups waging war against US and of course Pakistan, for being its closest ally in war on terror.
The drone strikes have pushed militants deeper into Pakistan and gave them an excuse to strike the heart of the country, further destabilizing it. No doubt drone attacks did kill some militants but at what cost???
To further probe into this aspect, this presentation will look into functioning of drones, negative and positive aspects in pertinent to our country vis-à-vis drawing some conclusions.

Definition

To distinguish UAVs from missiles, a UAV is defined as a "powered, aerial vehicle that does not carry a human operator, uses aerodynamic forces to provide vehicle lift, can fly autonomously or be piloted remotely, can be expendable or recoverable, and can carry a lethal or nonlethal payload". Therefore, cruise missiles are not considered UAVs, because, like many other guided missiles, the vehicle itself is a weapon that is not reused, even though it is also unmanned and in some cases remotely guided.

US, Pakistan, Tribal’s & UN’s Point of View on Drone Attacks

1. US Point of View

a. Self defense
i. Preemptive Strategy. Bill was passed by congress in 2002 under Bush administration to carry out attacks in preemption and self defense of its citizen and state in pursuance to September 11 attacks on twin tower.
ii. International Protocol on Hot Pursuit
b. Symmetric decimation of Al-Qaeda leadership
c. Use of highly sophisticated technology
d. Escalation of attacks under President Obama
e. Opposition within US

2. Pakistan’s Point of view

a. Official
b. Response of opposition parties, civil society and media
c. Wiki leaks
d. Pakistan military official papers

3. United Nations Point of View

On 27 October 2010 UNHRC investigator Philip Alston called on the US to demonstrate that it was not randomly killing people in violation of international law through its use of drones on the Afghan border. Alston criticized the US's refusal to respond to date to the UN's concerns. Said Alston, "Otherwise you have the really problematic bottom line, which is that the Central Intelligence Agency is running a program that is killing significant numbers of people and there is absolutely no accountability in terms of the relevant international laws."
‘’Alston, however, acknowledged that the drone attacks may be justified under the right to self-defense. He called on the US to be more open about the program. Alston's report was submitted to the United Nations Commission on Human Rights the following day’’
‘’The US representative at UNHRC has argued that the UN investigator for extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions does not have jurisdiction over US military actions’’

4. Opinion of FATA Locals

The New America Foundation and Terror Free Tomorrow have conducted the first comprehensive public opinion survey covering sensitive political issues in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. The unprecedented survey, from June 30 to July 20, 2010, consisted of face-to-face interviews of 1,000 FATA residents age 18 or older across 120 villages/sampling points in all seven tribal Agencies of FATA, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent, and field work by the locally-based Community Appraisal & Motivation Programme.
More than three-quarters of FATA residents oppose American drone strikes. Indeed, only 16 percent think these strikes accurately target militants; 45 percent think they largely kill civilians and another 39 percent feel they kill both civilians and militants.

Statistical Data of Drone Attacks in Pakistan

The US ramped up the number of strikes in July 2008, and has continued to regularly hit at Taliban and Al Qaeda targets inside Pakistan. There have been 264 strikes total since the program began in 2004. From 2000-2005 there were only one drone strike each year,3 in 2006, 5 in 2007, 35 in 2008, 53 in 2009, 117 in 2010 and 49 ,so far, in 2011.
Of the 264 strikes since 2004, 182 have hit targets in North Waziristan, and 67 have hit targets in South Waziristan, Khyber agency=5, Kurram=4, Bannu=3, Bajaur=3, Orakzai=1.
Since 2006, there have been 2,080 leaders and operatives from Taliban, Al Qaeda, and allied extremist groups killed and138 civilians killed.
The majority of the attacks have taken place in the tribal areas administered by four powerful Taliban groups: the Mehsuds, Mullah Nazir, Hafiz Gul Bahadar, and the Haqqanis. In 2010, there was a dramatic shift in strikes to tribal areas administered by Hafiz Gul Bahadar.
The Pakistani government considers Nazir, the Haqqanis, Bahadar, and Hekmatyar to be 'good Taliban' as they do not carry out attacks against the Pakistani state. All of these Taliban factions shelter al Qaeda and various other terror groups.

Critical Analysis:-

Positive Fallouts

1. Technological Advancement

As revolution in military affairs, UAVs offer the possibility of cheaper, more capable fighting aircrafts that could be used for multipurpose tasking without a life risk to aircrews.

2. Tactical advantage

The drones program is effective in terms of getting terrorist operatives in places where there's limited reach or no accessibility.

3. Accuracy and Precision

Due to built in sensors and laser guided munitions the predator strikes are accurate and precise in causing devastating effects to the desired target.
4. With the help of precision strikes predator strikes have successfully killed top militant commanders and Al-Qaida operatives like Nek Muhammad, Baitullah Mahsud, Ilyas Kashmiri etc.
5. No life loss to crew as the predator is operated without a pilot
6. Surveillance capability and updation of information of intelligence value.

Negative Fallouts


1. Sovereignty and Integrity

Compromising sovereignty and integrity as no international law permits aggression and use of force against another sovereign nation.

2. Breeding suicide bombers/terrorist

US has become insensitive to the fact that carrying of drone strikes is in turn giving a reason to the youngsters of the affected areas to join militant groups and continue undertaking terror activities and suicide bombings against them and Pakistan being its ally. In KPK 49.9% people (1499) have been killed due to suicide bombing, 27.7% (834) in Punjab, 17.5%(562) in FATA, and 5%(150) in other provinces.

3. Indiscriminate killing with no differentiation between friend and foe

Although International protocol regarding Hot Pursuit Operations permits haunt of terrorist with no geographical boundaries limitations however in carrying out such practice no international or domestic law permits killing of innocent civilians or non combatants

4. Anti state sentiments particularly against LEAs

These drone attacks are creating a sense of resentment against the state as the tolerance level of effected has crossed the threshold over inability of the state to counter or curb the violation and killings of people in tribal regions due to drones.

5. Questions legality/ Jurisdiction of court over extra judicial killings

No court of law is taking any action over such killings

6. Deteriorating image of country and terming as a terrorist breeding nation
7. Strained relations with US
8. Condemn by Religious parties
9. Anti US Sentiments
10. Poses high alert and retaliatory situation for LEAs operating in such territories.

Legal Implications/ Conclusions

Firstly, the rumors that the government of Pakistan might have signed a secret agreement with the US is irrelevant and misleading because under the Vienna Convention on Treaties, no such treaty is valid. Moreover under Art 102 of the UN Charter, such treaties have no legal standing.

Secondly, the drone attacks in Pakistani territory are a serious violation of the International Law as they are like attacking a sovereign country.
No judicial Inquiry has been over extra judicial killings caused by such attacks.The domestic laws of both countries i.e US and Pakistan do not allow extra judicial killing in any manner whatsoever the reason may be.
The United Nations charter doesnot allow any aggression or use of force against another state
The International Humanitarian Law clearly differentiate between a ‘Combatant’ and ‘a non combatant’ or a civilian whereas these attacks are carried out indiscriminately without having any regard for the rule of law
There might be different interpretation of the term ‘Intervention ‘but at least four considerations are to be taken into account for determining its validity on moral and legal grounds.
a. Proportionality.
b. Distinction of target.
c. The agent carrying out the strikes.
d. The process or manner in which targeting decisions are made.
US drone attacks fall short on all above mentioned accounts. That’s the reason why NATO does’nt openly support them and declares them as “Amercian Operations”. Different humanitarian organizations and the UN secretary General has shown their concerns over the issue.
The term used by the US “Unlawful Combatants” is not mentioned anywhere in the international Humanitarian Law (the Law of War). No inquiry has been made as to what had been the actual targets of such attacks. The rule of law prohibits extra judicial killings in each and every circumstances and unlike International Humanitarian Law, the International Human Rights Law remain intact in all kinds of situations (war or peace). Therefore, on the above grounds, drone attacks inside Pakistan territory can not be justified on any grounds whatsoever.

Recommendations

1. Operation within our territory is the responsibility of state therefore drone technology be transferred to Pakistan for carrying out operation even in the airspace by LEAs themselves instead of US.
2. Sharing of Information between ISI & CIA to minimize collateral damage and avoid incidents of targeting own check posts/Border Outposts and a previous incident of innocent killings during a jirga.
3. Sending strong Message by Pakistani representatives at all international forums highlighting the issues.
4. Constitution of commissions to inquire extra judicial killings and document the decree for presentation at UNHRC and all forums for its pursuance.
5. US be asked to avoid delivery of toxic/chemical munitions through hellfire missiles as it bears negative externalities by causing severe skin diseases to the nearby populace.
6. Elimination of all acts which gives US a reason to carryout drones

Haqqani Network:-

The Haqqani Network is an independent insurgent group originating in Afghanistan that is closely allied with the Taliban. Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani along with his son Sirajuddin Haqqani lead the Haqqani network, which is based in the Afghanistan–Pakistan border areas. According to US military commanders it is "the most resilient enemy network" and one of the biggest threats to NATO and United States forces in Afghanistan. Some notable US officials have alleged that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) service has been enabling the network. Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister, refuted the allegations and said that Pakistan had no relations with the network and that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had "trained and produced" the Haqqani network and other mujahideen during the Soviet war in Afghanistan. Malik's statements were contradicted by the network's warnings against any US military incursions into North Waziristan and by the Pakistan Army's public acknowledgement of contacts with the Haqqanis.The Haqqanis hail from the Zadran qaum (tribe), who are mostly based in Paktia and Khost provinces in the east of Afghanistan.The group has been active mainly in the east of Afghanistan—in Paktia, Paktika, Khost, Ghazni Wardak and even Kabul provinces.

Critical Analysis:-

The New York Times reported in September 2008 that Pakistan regards the Haqqani's as an important force for protecting its interests in Afghanistan in the event of American withdrawal from there and therefore have been unwilling to move against them. Pakistan presumably feels pressured that India, Russia, and Iran are gaining a foothold in Afghanistan. Since it lacks the financial clout of these other countries, Pakistan hopes that by being a sanctuary for the Haqqani network, it can assert some influence over its turbulent neighbour. In the words of a retired senior Pakistani official: "[We] have no money.
All we have are the crazies. So the crazies it is." The New York Times and Al Jazeera later reported in June 2010 that Pakistan's Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and chief of the ISI General Ahmad Shuja Pasha were in talks with Afghan president Hamid Karzai to broker a power-sharing agreement between the Haqqani network and the Afghan government. Reacting to this report both President Barack Obama and CIA director Leon Panetta responded with skepticism that such an effort could succeed. The effort to mediate between the Haqqanis and the Afghan government was launched by Pakistan after intense pressure by the US to take military action against the group in North Waziristan. Hamid Karzai later denied meeting anyone from the Haqqani network. Subsequently Kayani also denied that he took part in these talks.
According to a July 2011 report published by West Point's Combating Terrorism Center, the network acts as a key facilitator of negotiations between the Pakistani government and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and as the "primary conduit" of many Pakistani Taliban fighters into Afghanistan.
In September 2011, Sirajuddin Haqqani claimed during a telephonic interview to Reuters that the Haqqani network no longer maintained sanctuaries in northwest Pakistan and the robust presence that it once had there and instead now felt more safer in Afghanistan: "Gone are the days when we were hiding in the mountains along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Now we consider ourselves more secure in Afghanistan besides the Afghan people." According to Haqqani, there were "senior military and police officials" who are aligned with the group and there are even sympathetic and "sincere people in the Afghan government who are loyal to the Taliban" who support the group's aim of liberating Afghanistan "from the clutches of occupying forces." In response to questions from the BBC's Pashto service, Siraj denied any links to the ISI and stated that Mullah Omar is "our leader and we totally obey him."
The group's links to Pakistan have been a sour point in Pakistan – United States relations. In September 2011 the Obama administration warned Pakistan that it must do more to cut ties with the Haqqani network and help eliminate its leaders, adding that "the United States will act unilaterally if Pakistan does not comply." In testimony before a US Senate panel, Admiral Mike Mullen stated that the network "acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Agency." Pakistan in return rejected the notion that it maintained ties with the Haqqani network or used it in a policy of waging a proxy war in neighboring Afghanistan; the Pakistani interior minister also warned that any incursion on Pakistani territory by U.S. forces will not be tolerated. A Pakistani intelligence official insisted that the American allegations are part of "pressure tactics" used by the United States as a strategy "to shift the war theatre." An unnamed Pakistani official was reported to have said after a meeting of the nation's top military officials that “We have already conveyed to the US that Pakistan cannot go beyond what it has already done".
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Old Tuesday, April 03, 2012
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Default Energy Crisis In Pakistan:

Energy Crisis In Pakistan:

Causes, Recommendations,IPPs Stance & Its Repercussions




Introduction
In 1987, the Government of Pakistan (GOP) with the assistance of the World Bank formulated its long term strategy for development of the power sector in reliable power would spur economic growth. With energy demand growing at 12 percent and supply at 7 percent per annum. Load shedding was rampant with consequential output losses for industry and agriculture. It was estimated that the annual gap of 2000 MW of electricity cost the country approximately $1 billion per year in lost GDP. Electricity was available to only 40 percent of the population and per capita consumption of 404 kWh was only 4 percent of that in the United States and 24 percent of consumption in Malaysia.

IPPs
Pakistan had to catch up fast and the development of new capacity became the top priority, but the Government of Pakistan (GOP) lacked the funds for infrastructure development. Consequently, the private sector was invited to develop new generating capacity. It was rationalised that the private sector would not only supplement public sector generation, it would also mobilise additional equity and debt resources and improve the efficiency in the energy sector.
The new energy policy was implemented in a period of high political volatility in the early 1990s. The first Benazir Bhutto government (elected in 1988) was dismissed by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in 1992. She was succeeded by Nawaz Sharif who initiated a number of free market reforms and also signed Pakistan’s first IPP contract for the largest power sector project with the Hub Power Company in
1992. Disagreements with the President led to the dismissal of this government also, and an interim government was installed which held fresh elections in which the second Bhutto government was elected in November 1993. During its tenure, the Bhutto government signed a number of IPP contracts under the 1994 Power Policy and in June 1996, Pakistan’s first private sector power plant, the Hub Power Company (Hubco) came into operation.

Current Situation
Currently the situation Installed capacity is as following .
a. Total installed capacity 20681 MW
b. WAPDA hydel 6,555 MW (31%)
c. WAPDA thermal power, 4829 MW
d. RPPs 365 MW
e. PAEC 665 MW
f. IPPs 7644 MW
Currently Production is 11500 MW and Demand is 15500 MWAdditional quantity is not being produced due to lack fundsand circular debt problem.IPPs and Wapda owned plants also have lost efficiency now only producing 50% of full capacity and even less.Production of additional quantity will cause Govt to increase rates due to increase in thermal factor(variable costs of electricity produced by thermal varies between Rs 12 to 19,while by Hydel variable cost is less than Rs1).So the result is rampant load shedding, blow to agriculture and industry and high Social cost.

Impacts of IPPs
Impacts of IPPs are both positive as well as negative, positive impacts include:
a. Enhanced the capacity of power sector
b. Supported the economic activity from 2000 to 2007
c. Provided a cushion time to built long term power projects
d. Provided vital support in short span of time
Negative impacts include:
a. Bulk tariff ceiling instead of competitive bidding resulted in high tariffs
b. Increase in Thermal component also contributed toward price hike ,i.e. 60%
c. Lack of transparency in contracts as discussed earlier
d. Since 2001 though it has supported eco activity but due to oil price hike and increase in thermal factor it has caused following problems :
a) Higher power tariff causing inflation especially after 2005-2006
b) Costly export goods
e. Low performance by old plants has aggravated power shortage
f. IPPs are not environment friendly and cause lot of pollution

Reasons for Power Deficit / Load Shedding

1. Lack of Adequate Investment after induction of IPPs – resultantly No Capacity Additions during 2002-2008.
2. No Worthwhile Foreign Investment, while there was reduced interest by Private Sector as well, despite solicitations
3. As a Policy, Public Sector not allowed to add new capacity, fully banking on Private Sector, which showed limited interest
4. Quantum Jump in Power Demand due to:
ü Consumption led growth strategy of 2002-2008
ü Unplanned Rural Electrification during 2002-2007
5. 8.53% Load Growth, even during the current international financial melt down.
6. Extra high Load Growth in Urban Areas, which is more than 20% in Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Rahim Yar Khan, Bahawalpur, Multan, D.G. Khan, Faisalabad, Lahore, Gujranwala, Rawalpindi/Islamabad and Peshawar.
7. Air-conditioning load in Pakistan is more than 5000 MW, while the average shortage is around 3000 MW.
8. No major Hydel Plant due to lack of political consensus.
9. Diversion of Gas by SNGPL & SSGC, resultant shift to Oil, jacking-up cost of production, loss and availability of generation upto 1,500 MW
10. No tariff increase from FY 2003 to FY 2007, in spite of steep rise in Oil prices – resultant financial strangulation of Power Sector
11. Non availability of Funds for development of Transmission & Distribution Infrastructure and rehab of GENCOs - resulting in system constraints
12. Non-Bill Payment and Kunda Culture in major parts of the country hardened over the last one decade
13. Extreme lack of political and administrative support from Provincial Governments

Power Sector Issues

1. Poor Recoveries & Piling Receivables (up to Dec 2009)
HESCO 56% and receivables Rs.45 billion (Receivables from Govt. of Sindh Rs.20.8 billion)
PESCO 80% and receivables Rs.27 billion
KESC Rs.49 billion after adjustments
2. Accumulated Circular Debt
Tariff artificially frozen during 2003-07 in spite of heavy dependence of oil and surge in its prices and increase of cost of service
Insufficient provision of tariff differential subsidy
Non-payment by KESC, FATA and Provincial Govts.
3. Measures to address the Circular Debt Issue by the present Govt.
DEBTCO established to assume loans of Power Companies (Rs.216 bln)
Issuance of TFCs (Rs.85 bln) to clear FATA arrears
Subsidy duly budgeted.
FATA dues duly budgeted
NEPRA Act amended.
Difference between cost of supply and tariff programmed to be bridged through:
Tariff increase in shape of Monthly Fuel Price Adjustment
Quarterly Tariff Determinations
4. ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL (excluding KESC)
a. From 2006-2007 = 18% by oil, 38% by Hydro, 41% by Gas, 3% by others.
b. From 2009-2010 = 37% by oil, 38% by Hydro, 22% by Gas, 3% by others.
c. World Average = 5.8% by oil, 16% by Hydro, 20.1% by Gas, 41% by coal, 14.8% by nuclear, 3% by others.

5. CONSUMER MIX & CONSUMPTION PATTERN (excludes KESC) JUL 09-DEC 09
a. 7% commercial, 24% Industrial, 15% Agriculture, 48% Domestic, 6% others.
b. World Average Industrial Consumption is 42%
c. Customers PEPCO: 19.1 million and KESC: 2.0 million
6. Oil Handling Infrastructure
Present oil requirements is 30,000 ton per day, whereas on the average 24,000 ton oil had been supplied
With new rentals and other thermal plants, this is going to increase further.
Additional infrastructure and arrangements are required to be made by Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources.
PSO to expedite acceptance of TPS Muzaffargarh Oil Farm (263,000 MTN) as mid-country strategic reserves
7. Uncertainty of Oil Prices
· Volatility in the oil prices directly affecting the viability and affordability of the sector.
8. Investment Required for Development of Indigenous Resources
Heavy Capital requirement for development of Indigenous resources of Hydro, Coal and Renewable
9. Legal Issues
The Electricity Act nor supports the Sector legally to force recovery nor helps curb illegal abstraction of energy.
Draft Energy Conservation Act of 2009 is devoid of any penalties for non compliance
Both Need change – Drafts ready with PEPCO
10. Corporate Governance
Non Professional Management for over 10 years
Human Resource depletion forced by non professional management
Capacity Issues in every sub sector and activity
Lack of political support in non-performing DISCOs
Capacity building of all stakeholders, specially NEPRA required
11. Security Issues
Security situation negatively affecting Foreign Investment in the Sector

Key Recommendations and Way Forward

1) Demand Supply Position
Demand will continue to grow by about 8%
Immediate capacity additions required
2) Supply Side and Demand Side Measures
Government guarantee and financial support is required to install matching capacity in Public Sector otherwise load shedding will persist in view of lack of private sector appetite for investment
3) Cost of Service & Affordability effect
For financial sustainability, full cost of service needs to be effected, which may increase the tariff
The affordability issue needs to be addressed by targeted subsidies
4) Recoveries
Political and active Provincial Governmental support is required to help effect recovery of outstanding dues, especially in HESCO, PESCO & QESCO
At source deduction be allowed to effect recovery of outstanding dues from Provincial Govts and KESC
5) Efficiency Improvement and Theft Control
Political and active Provincial Governmental support is needed to control theft in HESCO, PESCO & QESCO
Electricity Act & Conservation Act need to be amended to include penalty clauses on theft and energy wastage
6) Allocation of additional gas
Immediate allocation of additional gas of 350 mmcfd be made to Power Sector.
If not done, the sustainability of Power Sector and affordability will be jeopardized
Availability of gas can save the day
7) Policies
Strategy to overcome the power crisis should be supported by the set of policy measures
Joint Session of Parliament be summoned to discuss energy crisis and how get out of it.
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Default Geo – Strategic Importance of Pakistan

Geo – Strategic Importance of Pakistan


Geo strategic means the importance of a country or region as by virtue of its geographical location. Geo political is defined as, stressing the influence of geographic factors on the state power, international conduct and advantages it derives from its location.

Stephen Cohn describes this importance “While history has been unkind to Pakistan, its geography has been its greatest benefit.” It has resource rich area in the north-west, people rich in the north-east.” Pakistan is a junction of South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, a way from resource efficient countries to resource deficient countries.
The world is facing energy crisis and terrorism. Pakistan is a role for transportation, and a front line state against terrorism.


Geographical Importance:

Bridge between South Asia and South West Asia, Iran and Afghanistan are energy abundant while India and China are lacking of. China finds way to Indian ocean and Arabian Sea through Korakaram. China with its fastest economic growth rate of 9%, is developing its southern provinces because its own port is 4500 km away from Sinkian but Gawadar is 2500 km away.

Pakistan offers to CARs the shortest route of 2600 km as compared to Iran (4500 km) or Turkey (5000 km) land locked Afghanistan now at the phase of Reconstruction, finds its ways through Pakistan. Gawadar port with its deep waters attracts the trade ships of China, CARs and South East Asian Countries. ASEAN.

Economic significance:

SAARC, ECO. Iran is struggling to export its surplus gas and oil to eastern countries: Qatar Pakistan and Turkmenistan Pipeline projects highlights the position. Pakistan would get 400 million dollar annually if IPT gets success. Mountain Ranges: Himalayas, Hindu Kush in the North are plentiful in providing water and natural resources.

Political importance:

US interests in the regions to contain the Growing China, nuclear Iran, terrorist Afghanistan, and to benefit from the market of India. Security and Business are two main US interests in the region while Pakistan is playing a front line role against terrorism. Today the political scenario of the region is tinged with pre emption policy and US invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran’s nuclear program, India’s geopolitical muscles (new strategic deal with US) to gain the hegemony and to counter the “The Rise of China” which has earned all the qualities to change unipolar world into Bipolar world.

In all these issues, Pakistan is directly or indirectly involved, especially after Al-Qaeda operations. The American think tanks have repeatedly accepted that war against terror could never be worn without the help of Pakistan. Pakistan has rigorously fought, and ongoing military operation in Wazirstan is also targeting the suspected Taliban in the bordering area.

Main threats to Pakistan:

• Terrorist in the border areas have tarnished image of Paskistan, fight with Pak-Army and fear among the people.
• Blame of Mumbai attacks on Pakistan.
• Balochistan and Wazirstan conflicts are posing threats to any economic project like IPI gas pipeline.
• Negative role of India, US, Iran in this conflict ridden area.
• Kashmir is flash point.
• Decelerating nuclear race in the South Asia.
• Instable governments in Pakistan have contributed in weakening the strong position.
• Economic crisis is making Pakistan more dependent on US, like accepting of Kerry-Lugar Bill
• Pakistan army is engaged on western, eastern borders and against terroists.
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Default Global Warming

Global Warming

The warnings about global warming have been extremely clear for a long time. We are facing a global climate crisis. It is deepening. We are entering a period of consequences.
(Al Gore)

Global warming is when the earth heats up (the temperature rises). It happens when greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, water vapor, nitrous oxide, and methane) trap heat and light from the sun in the earth’s atmosphere, which increases the temperature. This hurts many people, animals, and plants. Many cannot take the change, so they die.

Explaination:-

Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its related effects. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. Warming of theclimate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel. These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries.
Climate model projections are summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.5 to 1.9 °C (2.7 to 3.4 °F) for their lowest emissions scenarioand 3.4 to 6.1 °C (6.1 to 11 °F) for their highest. The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.
An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and a probable expansion ofsubtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events including heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall events,species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional changes is uncertain. In a 4 °C world, the limits for human adaptation are likely to be exceeded in many parts of the world, while the limits for adaptation for natural systems would largely be exceeded throughout the world. Hence, the ecosystem services upon which human livelihoods depend would not be preserved.
Proposed responses to global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or reflect incoming solar radiation back to space. The main international mitigation effort is the Kyoto Protocol, which seeks to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic interference". As of May 2010, 192 states had ratified the protocol. The only members of the UNFCCC that were asked to sign the treaty but have not yet ratified it are the USA and Afghanistan.


Major contributors of the greenhouse gasses(Causes):

[B][B]1. Since the beginning of industrial revolution atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have increased nearly 30%, methane concentration more than double, NOx concentrations have risen to about 15%. These gasses have enhanced the heat-trapping capability of earth’s atmosphere.
2. The main reason of the increase in concentration of CO2 in last 150 years is the combustion of fossil fuels and other human activities.
3. Increased agriculture, deforestation, landfills, industrial production and minning also contribute a significant share of emissions.
4. The level of CO2 enhanced from 210ppm to 360 ppm in last 150 years.
5. N2O is 6-8% contributor of the total; green house effect.
6. Increased use of aerosols and air coolants have raise the amount of chlorofluorocarbons, which contributes 24% of the total green house effect.
7. Oxides of sulfur, which are obtained by burning fuel in the engines, are also a potential hazard.
8. Due to high levels of CFC’s the ozone layer which is a protective covering of the earth is depleting and a hole has been observed in it on the arctic region. This depleted ozone also increases the influx of solar light specially UV rays.

Some global indications and implications of rise in temperature(Effects):


1. The snow covers in the northern hemisphere and floating ice in the Arctic Ocean have been decreased significantly.
2. Globally sea level has risen 4-8 inches over the past century.
3. Worldwide precipitation over land has increased by about one percent.
4. Scientists expect that the average global surface temperature could raise 1-4.50C in the next 50 years and 2.2-100F in the next century with significant regional climatic changes.
5. Evaporation will increase as climate will warm up, which will increase average global precipitation.
6. Soil moisture is likely to decline in many regions and intense rainstorms are likely to become more frequent.
7. Sea levels are likely to rise in most parts of the world.
8. Year 2008 was the hottest year on record.
9. Due to adverse climatic conditions wild life is becoming extinct.


Impact on Pakistan:


1. Pakistan produces less than 0.4% of the green house gasses which are the major contributors of global warming.
2. Yet, it is the 12th country most at risk from the effects of global warming.
3. Karachi and twelve other mega-cities of Asia has been declared as Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) ‘hotspots’ by the UN environment agency as soot levels in these cities comprise ten per cent of the total mass of all man-made particles.
A three-kilometer-thick ‘brown cloud’ of man-made pollution, which stretches from the Arabian Peninsula to China to the western Pacific Ocean, is making Asian cities darker, speeding up the melting of Himalayan glaciers and impacting human health, says the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) in a regional assessment report with focus on Asia. In addition to Karachi, the UNEP’s new publication points out Bangkok, Beijing, Cairo, Dhaka, Kolkata, Lagos, Mumbai, New Delhi, Seoul, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Tehran as being ABC ‘hotspots’.


Impact on global economy:


“If you asked me to name the three scariest threats facing the human race, I would give the same answer that most people would: nuclear war, global warming and Windows.”- Dave Barry

One widely publicized report on potential economic impact is the Stern Review, written by Sir Nicholas Stern. It suggests that extreme weather might reduce global gross domestic product by up to one percent, and that in a worst-case scenario global per capita consumption could fall by the equivalent of 20 percent.


Politics

Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent "dangerous" human interference of the climate system. As is stated in the Convention, this requires that GHG concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion.
The Framework Convention was agreed in 1992, but since then, global emissions have risen. During negotiations, the G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nations representing 133
developing nations) pushed for a mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing their emissions. This was justified on the basis that: the developed world's emissions had contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere; per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs. This mandate was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention, which entered into legal effect in 2005.
In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed countries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their emissions. These first-round commitments expire in 2012. US President George W. Bush rejected the treaty on the basis that "it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy."
At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord. Parties associated with the Accord (140 countries, as of November 2010) aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C. A preliminary assessment published in November 2010 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggests a possible "emissions gap" between the voluntary pledges made in the Accord and the emissions cuts necessary to have a "likely" (greater than 66% probability) chance of meeting the 2 °C objective. The UNEP assessment takes the 2 °C objective as being measured against the pre-industrial global mean temperature level. To having a likely chance of meeting the 2 °C objective, assessed studies generally indicated the need for global emissions to peak before 2020, with substantial declines in emissions thereafter.
The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of 1.5 °C.


Pragmatic solutions to overcome this catastrophic change:


“We are about half a century away from being ecologically and economically bankrupt because of global warming” stated Andrew Simms while demanding Kyoto tax on U.S.

1. Mitigation of global warming is accomplished through reductions in the rate of anthropogenic greenhouse gas release.
2. Many environmental groups encourage individual action against global warming, as well as community and regional actions. Others have suggested a quota on worldwide fossil fuel production, citing a direct link between fossil fuel production and CO2 emissions.
3. There has also been business action on climate change, including efforts to improve energy efficiency and limited moves towards use of alternative fuels.
4. In January 2005 the European Union introduced its European Union Emission Trading Scheme, through which companies in conjunction with government agree to cap their emissions or to purchase credits from those below their allowances.
5. Australia announced its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in 2008.
6. United States President Barack Obama has announced plans to introduce an economy-wide cap and trade scheme.


Conclusion:


Political and public debate continues regarding climate change, and what actions (if any) to take in response. The available options are mitigation to reduce further emissions; adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively, geoengineering to reverse global warming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

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Old Sunday, April 15, 2012
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Default National Unity

National Unity


National Purpose (shared values and beliefs) envisages: (1) a prosperous and peaceful country where all citizens have right to worship, life, property and speech. (2) Equality of opportunity, with merit as the final standard for all jobs/slots and not the disqualifier it is today. (3) Liberal/Tolerant Modern State with an Islamic Ideology. (4) Welfare State with both the State and private sector working in cooperation with each other with a strong institutional framework encouraging individuals and businesses to support less affluent classes. (5) Strengthening democratic traditions by creating a real grassroots democracy.

National integration is a process of achieving national cohesion, stability, prosperity, strength, and feelings of being united as a nation. Pakistan has faced varying degrees of religious, ethnic, linguistic, and political problems that are often in conflict with our national interest. To guard against all external as well as internal challenges to the solidarity and security of Pakistan, a well knitted and integrated nation is a must. Lack of confidence and faith in the future of Pakistan speaks volume of our failings. All the turmoil and unrest in the country cannot be entirely placed on the external forces and our enemies. The brute and the savage force in an individual, which is basically harnessed by positive aspects of education, tends to get unleashed in different directions and causes serious disruptions within society.

Hamza Amir in his book “Pakistan-an overdeveloped state” has revealed the fact that after independence, the governing class was highly educated, on the pattern of the British mind set, while on the contrary the masses were miserable illiterate. This huge gap created management crisis. Uniform development across the country over the past sixty years would have solidly integrated the Pakistani nation but that did not happen due to absolute incompetence, poor leadership and corruption at all levels. The price Pakistan is paying for its neglect is in the shape of an internally disjointed nation forced to suffer the present-day indignities in the shape of terrorism and insurgency.

Factors responsible for current disintegrated nation

For too long, we have focused on our differences - in our politics and backgrounds, in our race and beliefs - rather than cherishing the unity and pride that binds us together. Numerous factors are responsible for the current dismal state of affairs with regard to national unity in Pakistan. We can categorize these factors on political, social, economic, religious dimensions.
Feudal consider enlightenment as a challenge to their age old oppressive hold over their surfs and have a greater stake in the status quo. Due to large holding and weal is always politically active in decision making regarding the common masses. Thus the power continues to flow from feudalistic order of the society rather than a broad based popular public support. The Urban leadership, mainly industrialists, is also following the footsteps of feudal lords.
Sectarianism: with the introduction of religious status and exploration of religion by various governments to legitimate their rule created held on this Land of the Pure. Different sects manipulated by external actors, are engage in alienating the simpleton Muslims from the true spirit of Islam and are weakening the Muslim brotherhood, which is the real basis of Pakistan.

Pakistan has been divided between Enlightened and Conservative Muslims, Particularly after 9/11 these opposing forces are putting all their energies to falsify the other at the cost of national image and stability. Corruption is so deeply rooted in our public and private life that it is threatening the very fabric of our society. An individual finds no fair way to get his legitimate rights and he feels frustrated against this set up of looking and cheating.

Caste/Tribal system: Centuries old cast and tribal system prevailing in all provinces is very decisive in nature. It has fragmented the society and put the people in the watertight compartments. The tribal chieftain, making full use of their terrible ignorance and economic dependence, are pushing them into the swamp of poverty and frustration. Bearded war Lords:
Lust for money and power with a robust desire to govern the country, some of the religious leaders have turned Deeni Madresas into terrorists organizations by attracting the poor youth to their free education program. The few violent hands can dismantle the whole state structure, as is frequently envisaged in suicide bombings.

Higher and costlier Educating is only providing the chosen elite control the policy making process, thus excluding majority of deserving and passionate youth converting them into frustrated souls.
Absence of quick and cheap justice has minimized the role of Law and order agencies forced the victims to take vengeance by the dint of their own power and introduced a culture of intolerance and violence.
The Colonial Masters integration of the society was detrimental to the vested interested.
Since the independence, the ruling elite with the same colonial mind set segregated the Pakistani society on ethnic, linguistic, sectarian issues and kept them in the abeyance of poverty and illiteracy.
Inequitable Distribution of wealth fueled by the feudal, profit oriented industrialists, biased policy makers aggravated the situation. The concentration of wealth, contrary to the Islamic code, by 22 families in 1960s and 500 groups at present, has alienated the majority from assuming positive role in nation building process.


Unsatisfied Federating Units:

Strong Center, first operated under the provisions of the British made 1935 Act alienated the small provinces, generated sentiments of separatism, violence, distrust. Frequent failure of Counsel of Common Interest, National Finance Commission, disputed water distribution and energy resources, the right of royalty, inequitable job distribution, have endangered the security and prosperity of the country. Attempts to keep unity under bayonet bring short relief but unending unrest and brutalities. Insurgency in Wazirstan and Balochistan, Foreign Elements, are alarming indicators to the national Army.

Controlled Media in Pakistan has been projecting flowery image of the state while the demon of corruption, hatred, injustice, in violence, and deprivation kept on infecting its foundations.

Effects of disunity:

The crisis of management has created an air of uncertainty, disloyalty, frustration, and insurgency. The Pakistan Army is at war with its own people in Balochistan and FATA. The fragmented Pakistan with internal weakness and external threats is unable to refuse the Americans Orders, to get its legitimate right of Kashmir, to secure its borders with Afghanistan.
Foreign investors, especially the overseas Pakistanis are examining the fear factors in opening new ventures due to corrupt financial institutions and violent groups. Consequently the vicious circle of poverty expands aggravating the already inflamed situation. The secret agencies of enemy countries find local terrorists to disrupt the system. Under the thick air of jealousy, non construction of Big dams is pushing he country into dark ages.
A common citizen suffers worst type of corruption and thus is uninterested in paying taxes. Social values, crime rate, and national patriotism, religious satisfaction are fast disappearing with growing poverty. Disengage of citizen in election process is a clear indication of general masses hatred against the political, religious and military leadership. Individuals are becoming if oriented, preferring their self interest to the national interest.

Pragmatic Steps:

Many steps can be taken at Government, Society, and Individual level to fight the menace of disintegration and harness the much needed national unity. To create physical asset by educating the masses, proper allocating the land, credit, Zakat and Usher, ensuring cost effective provisions of basic --------- Improved efficiency in the public and Corporate sectors to provide rule of Law.
Independence of Judiciary will strengthen democracy, restore trust between Center and Provinces, and facilitate quick dispensation of justice. Depoliticizing of Public departments to avoid political pressures. Peace inside and outside the borders will provide sufficient resource, skills and opportunities to focus on the national prosperity. Media with its magical power can unite the warring factions by minimizing the differences through open debates. Stable democratic system to work for welfare state. Patriot intellectuals writing to bring harmony. Accountability at all levels. Autonomy to the Provinces. Awakening of Islamic ideology.
The political and military establishment must now understand that the military potential of any country is multiplied manifolds when it is backed by a nation that is well-integrated. An integrated nation can cover up for military shortfalls but military strength cannot cover up for the shortfalls of a nation that lacks integration and cohesion. The Soviet Union’s break-up in 1991 is an example that amply illustrates this aspect. Pakistan must, therefore, accord top priority to uniform development throughout the country in order to have a nation that can back its enviable military potential in a solid manner; if not, then all will be lost.

Following the example of the armed forces it is necessary that Pakistanis learn to work with each other in all sectors of national life. Army units are formed on the basis of amalgamating soldiers from different areas. For example a battalion of the Frontier Force Regiment (FFR) does not consist of Pakhtuns alone but has a component of soldiers from other parts of Pakistan amalgamated with the Pakhtuns. Thus they become one solidly integrated entity – the Pakistan army. Pakhtun, Punjabi, Baloch, Sindhi and Kashmiri fellow soldiers posted anywhere in the country then willingly die for each other and for Pakistan; such is the level of integration. Sadly, one cannot say the same about the rest of Pakistan.

In the light of the military experience it just might be a good idea if all businesses, factories, corporate entities, service providers etc located in any province are made to follow a regulated system that absorbs people of other provinces so that a bonding interaction is brought about in the workplace.

Lastly, it is time to understand that Pakistan can no longer be ruled from Islamabad by an ever-weakening, but imposingly dominant, centre. To continue doing this will be a step in the wrong direction. There is now no alternative to allowing complete, undiluted and effective autonomy to the provinces


Some recent positive steps taken by the government

Through the historic 7th NFC Award, Provincial share of the divisible pool would increase from the present 47.5 per cent to 56 per cent in the first year of NFC (2010–2011) and 57.5 per cent in the remaining years of the award under the vertical distribution of resources. He claimed that this share would virtually be over 60 per cent. During Musharraf regime, provinces were demanding for a 50% provincial share in the divisible pool. This is indeed a positive step, provide that it is implemented in its letter and spirit.

Though Balochistan Package for the ever-neglected province, was a good step in clearly right direction, but the lack of implementation on it, has compelled the observers to term it as a ‘futile exercise’. Of the 61 major steps envisaged in the package, only 15 have reached the stage of the full implementation despite more than a dozen high-profile meetings, two of them presided over by Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani.

The 18th Amendment provided many steps for the provincial autonomy and strengthening of democracy, which in turn will hopefully translate into increased national unity. The constitutional reform package not only meets the federating units’ demand for abolition of the Concurrent Legislative List it also allows the units some say in respect of a few matters that have so far been in the Federal List. The Amendment also envisages a most welcome increase in the powers of the provincial assemblies.

In his recent trip to Balochistan in October, 2011, Prime Minister ensured the Baloch people that implementation on the Aghaz-e-Haqooq package is underway, and every obstacle in the path will be removed.

In a nutshell, sincerity of approach will emerge as the main factor. We need to strengthen our political system and institutions, develop a dynamic and sustainable growth, eradicate corruption, provide timely justice, enhance employment, undertake steps for population control, seek consensus based political solutions, and resolve ethnic, sectarian and religious fault lines. With time running out, the failure to resolve the crises mean that there will be no escape from the eventual dark reality of disintegration. Verily will never Allah change the condition of a people until they change what is in themselves.
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Old Monday, April 16, 2012
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Default Natural Disasters in Pakistan

Natural Disasters in Pakistan



One year ago, Pakistan suffered the worst flooding in its history, a slow-moving disaster that left some 2,000 dead and another 11 million homeless. Nearly one million are still without permanent shelter, and meanwhile, the flooding has returned. Though it's not on the same scale as last year's flood, this summer's damage is still significant. High water from monsoon rains has killed more than 200 people since early August 2011, damaging or destroying some 670,000 homes and affecting more than 5 million people, according to the government and the United Nations. The disaster has once again overwhelmed the capacity of the government to assist, and the UN has asked for $357 million in international aid.

2010 Floods in Pakistan:-

The 2010 Pakistan floods began in late July 2010, resulting from heavy monsoon rains in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Punjab andBalochistan regions of Pakistan and affected the Indus River basin. Approximately one-fifth of Pakistan's total land area was underwater, approximately 796,095 square kilometres (307,374 sq mi). According to Pakistani government data the floods directly affected about 20 million people, mostly by destruction of property, livelihood and infrastructure, with a death toll of close to 2,000.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon had initially asked for US$460 million (€420 million) for emergency relief, noting that the flood was the worst disaster he had ever seen. Only 20% of the relief funds requested had been received as of 15 August 2010. The U.N. had been concerned that aid was not arriving fast enough, and the World Health Organization reported that ten million people were forced to drink unsafe water. ThePakistani economy was harmed by extensive damage to infrastructure and crops. Damage to structures was estimated to exceed US$4 billion (€2.5 billion), and wheat crop damages were estimated to be over US$500 million (€425 million). Total economic impact may have been as much as US$43 billion (€35 billion).

Causes:

The floods were driven by unprecedented monsoon rain. The rainfall anomaly map published by NASA showed unusually intense monsoon rains attributed to La Niña. On 21 June, the Pakistan Meteorological Department cautioned that urban and flash flooding could occur from July to September in the north parts of the country. The same department recorded above-average rainfall in the months of July and August 2010 and monitored the flood wave progression. Discharge levels were comparable to those of the floods of 1988, 1995, and 1997. The monsoon rainfall of 2010, over whole country, was excess of 87 per cent and was highest since 1994 and ranked second highest during last 50 years of period.
In response to previous Indus River floods in 1973 and 1976, Pakistan created the Federal Flood Commission (FFC) in 1977. The FFC operates under Pakistan's Ministry of Water and Power. It is charged with executing flood control projects and protecting lives and property of Pakistanis from the impact of floods. Since its inception the FFC has received Rs 87.8 billion (about 900 million USD). FFC documents show that numerous projects were initiated, funded and completed, but reports indicate that little work has actually been done due to ineffective leadership and corruption

Effects:-

1. Food

Floods submerged 17 million acres (69,000 km2) of Pakistan's most fertile crop land, killed 200,000 livestock and washed away massive amounts of grain. A major concern was that farmers would be unable to meet the fall deadline for planting new seeds in 2010, which implied a loss of food production in 2011, and potential long term food shortages. The agricultural damage reached more than 2.9 billion dollars, and included over 700,000 acres (2,800 km2) of lost cotton crops, 200,000 acres (810 km2) of sugar cane and 200,000 acres (810 km2) of rice, in addition to the loss of over 500,000 tonnes of stocked wheat, 300,000 acres (1,200 km2) of animal fodder and the stored grain losses.
Agricultural crops such as cotton, rice, and sugarcane and to some extent mangoes were badly affected in Punjab, according to a Harvest Tradings-Pakistan spokesman. He called for the international community to fully participate in the rehabilitation process, as well as for the revival of agricultural crops in order to get better GDP growth in the future.
In affected Multan Division in South Punjab, some people were seen to be engaging in price-gouging in this disaster, raising prices up to Rs 130/kg. Some called for Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited to write off all agricultural loans in the affected areas in Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pukhtunkhwa especially for small farmers.
On 24 September the World Food Programme announced that about 70% of Pakistan's population, mostly in rural areas, did not have adequate access to proper nutrition.
Already resurgent in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province, agricultural devastation brought on by the floods left Pakistan more susceptible to an increase in poppycultivation, given the crop's resiliency and relatively few inputs.

2. Infrastructure

Floods damaged an estimated 2,433 miles (3,916 km) of highway and 3,508 miles (5,646 km) of railway and repairs are expected to cost at least 158 million USD and 131 million USD, respectively.Public building damage is estimated at 1 billion USD. Aid donors estimate that 5,000 schools were destroyed.
The power infrastructure of Pakistan also took a severe blow from the floods, which damaged 10,000 transmission lines and transformers, feeders and power houses in different flood-hit areas. Flood water inundated Jinnah Hydro power and 150 power houses in Gilgit. The damage caused a power shortfall of 3.135 gigawatts.

3. Taliban insurgency

It was reported that the flood would divert Pakistani military forces from fighting the Pakistani Taliban insurgents (TTP) in the northwest to help in the relief effort, giving Taliban fighters a reprieve to regroup. Helping flood victims gave the US an opportunity to improve its image.
Pakistani Taliban also engaged in relief efforts, making inroads where the government was absent or seen as corrupt. As the flood dislodged many property markers, it was feared that governmental delay and corruption would give the Taliban the opportunity to settle these disputes swiftly. In August a Taliban spokesperson asked the Pakistani government to reject Western help from "Christians and Jews" and claimed that the Taliban could raise $20 million to replace that aid.
According to a US official, the TTP issued a threat saying that it would launch attacks against foreigners participating in flood relief operations. In response, the United Nations said it was reviewing security arrangements for its workers. The World Health Organization stated that work in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was already suffering because of security concerns.
An self-proclaimed Taliban spokesperson based in Orakzai told The Express Tribune: “We have not issued any such threat; and we don’t have any plans to attack relief workers." Nevertheless three American Christians were reported killed by the Taliban on 25 August in the Swat Valley.

4. Political effects

The floods' aftermath was thought likely contribute to public perception of inefficiency and to political unrest. These political effects of the floods were compared with that of the 1970 Bhola cyclone. The skepticism within the country extended to outside donors. Less than 20% of the pledged aid was scheduled to go through the government, according to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, with the remainder flowing through non-governmental organizations. The government's response was complicated by insurgencies (in Balochistan and Waziristan), growing urban sectarian discord, increasing suicide bombings against core institutions and relations with India.

5. Economic effects

On 7 September 2010, the International Labour Organization reported that the floods had cost more than 5.3 million jobs, stating that "productive and labor intensive job creation programmes are urgently needed to lift millions of people out of poverty that has been aggravated by flood damage". Forecasts estimated that the GDP growth rate of 4% prior to the floods would turn to -2% to -5% followed by several additional years of below-trend growth. As a result, Pakistan was unlikely to meet the International Monetary Fund's target budget deficit cap of 5.1% of GDP, and the existing $55 billion of external debt was set to grow. Crop losses were expected to impact textile manufacturing, Pakistan's largest export sector. The loss of over 10 million head of livestock along with the loss of other crops would reduce agricultural production by more than 15%. Toyota and Unilever Pakistan said that the floods would sap growth, necessitating production cuts as people coped with the destruction. Parvez Ghias, the chief executive of Pakistan's largest automotor manufacturer Toyota, described the economy's state as "fragile". Nationwide car sales were predicted to fall as much as 25%, forcing automakers to reduce production in October–2010 from the prior level of 200 cars per day. Milk supplies fell by 15%, which caused the retail price of milk to increase by Pk Rs 4 (5 US cents) per liter.

2011 Floods in Sindh

The heavy monsoon rains and the resulting floods have affected more than 5.4 million people in Sindh and Balochistan Provinces of Pakistan. In Sindh 23 districts have been affected to some degree. It is expected that the population will continue to be uprooted from their homes to seek refuge in the short term as more areas are affected. In Balochistan, five districts are affected.

DAMAGES

• At least 5.4 million have been affected
• 1.8 million people have been displaced (51% female)
• 21 out of 23 districts in Sindh have been affected
• 67% of food stock has been destroyed.
• In 16 districts, 72.6% crops damaged or destroyed while 36.2% livestock is lost or sold.

Causes

In the month of July Pakistan received below normal monsoon rains; however in August and September the country received above normal monsoon rains. A strong weather pattern entered the areas of Sindh from the Indian states of Rajasthan and Gujarat in August and gained strength with the passage of time and caused heavy downpours. The four weeks of continuous rain have created an unprecedented flood situation in Sindh.
The District Badin in Sindh province received record breaking rainfall of 615.3 millimeters (24.22 in) during the monsoon spell breaking earlier recorded 121 millimeters (4.8 in) in Badin in 1936. The area of Mithi also received record rainfall of 1,290 millimeters (51 in) during the spell, where maximum rainfall was recorded 114 millimeters (4.5 in) in Mithi in 2004. The heavy cloudburst during last 48–72 hours displaced many people besides destroying crops in the area. The Met Office had informed all district coordination officers, Provincial Disaster Management Authority, chief secretaries and chief ministers about the heavy monsoon rain-spell two days earlier to take precautionary measures.
Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry, Director General Pakistan Meteorological Department said: "the rains in Sindh are the highest ever recorded monsoon rains during the four weeks period of August and September, 2011. Before the start of these rains in the second week of August, Sindh was under severe drought conditions and it had not received any rainfall for the last 12 months. The last severe rainfall flooding in Sindh occurred in July 2003," he said and added, "but this time the devastating rains of Mithi, Mirpurkhas, Diplo, Parker, Nawabshah, Badin, Chhor, Padidan, and Hyderabad etc during the four weeks period have created unprecedented flood situation in Sindh." According to Dr. Qamar, the total volume of water fallen over Sindh during the four weeks is estimated to be above 37 million acre feet, “which is unimaginable. The August monsoon rainfall, over province of Sindh (271 % above normal) is the heaviest recorded during the period 1961–2011.

UN efforts for floods in Pakistan

The United Nations called for US$357 million to help the Government of Pakistan provide life-saving assistance to more than 5 million people left destitute by devastating monsoon rains and floods in Pakistan. The United Nations Rapid Response Plan for 2011 aims to provide food, water, sanitation, health, and emergency shelter to the worst hit families for six months.
To date, the UN and its humanitarian partners have distributed more than 20,000 shelter kits and sets of household goods, as well as 530,000 plastic sheets. More than 650,000 people have received medicines and medical care, and 500,000 people will receive food aid by the end of September. The UN also aims to provide 400,000 people with access to safe drinking water over the coming days. Nonetheless, the level of need remains huge.

Analysis:-

1. Role of Government Institutions

When the flood reached the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the government announced the evacuation of houses. This was initially refused by many people, because hardly anybody believed in an upcoming disaster. The refusal of people to leave their homes is also linked to local cultures and traditions. Daily life takes place in the privacy of a family’s home. Therefore, the destruction of houses deprives families of housing place and, at the same time, of a retreat, particularly for female family members.
After the flood struck the province with its full strength, the provincial government was paralysed. It was a critical situation, as the government had hardly any resources to provide aid to the people. It was the assistance of the military (and its equipment, such as helicopters and boats) that enabled the government to first rescue people and then provide food and non-food items. By now, the provincial government has started different relief activities in almost every constituency. Camps were established and food was distributed. Besides the provisions of tents, government school buildings were transferred into temporary shelters. Nevertheless, the help given was not sufficient, since the province was, prior to the flood, already in a state of war. Many people, particularly children and women, are mentally disturbed and most vulnerable in this crisis. Despite all efforts by the provincial government and other actors, such as NGOs, civil society or host families, more resources and aid is urgently needed. In regard to the upcoming winter season, however, the temporary tents are not sufficient any more. There is a need of warm shelters, beds and blankets. The main need, which cannot only be provided by the provincial government, is, however, the beginning of a rehabilitation process.
So far, the provincial government has not received any financial support from the federal government or international donors. The chief minister of the province has already initiated a meeting with international donor agencies to convince them of the necessity to help and support the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Regarding the ongoing war on terror in the region, it is even more important to support this crisis-ridden province.
In general, Pakistan is in need of international support. Many regional organisations, which help affected families, are charity based or depended on external funding. Also the financial support of the Pakistan government does not meet the needs of the people so far. The government has issued so called “Watan Cards” with a balance of 20.000 Rupees (approx. 180 EUR) to affected families. This amount is, however, not sufficient for the reconstruction of houses. Thus, main problems are the rehabilitation and reconstruction of houses and livelihoods, as well as the resettlement of homeless people. If such processes are not initiated in the upcoming months, a crisis after the crisis will emerge and aggravate the security situation in the region. In this regard, Pakistan needs assistance by the international donor community, also because the government lacks functioning institutions to handle such issues.

2. The Flood as a Catalyst for Existing Crises

Pakistan is facing a multi-fold crisis: a food, fuel, fiscal, democracy, terrorism and climate crisis. They are all interlinked and somehow extent the effect of each other. The flood now multiplies the effect of these already existing crises in the country. Prior to the flood, there was yet a food crisis in the country. According to a report by the World Food Programme and Sustainable Development Policy Institute released in June 2010, about 48 percent of Pakistan’s population is affected by food insecurity. After the flood and its disastrous impacts, this crisis was aggravated and the number of people rose to 60 percent.
Pakistan has been facing a deteriorating fuel crisis for many years, which leads to energy shortage and blackouts. This crisis was in turn aggravated by a lack of energy and lack of budgetary discipline. The flood threatened some of the power plants, and the supply of natural gas and oil had to be reduced because of standing water.
Furthermore, the fiscal crisis led to the reduction of funds for the “Public Sector Development Programme” (education, health, agriculture, sanitation, infrastructure etc.) in order to meet the needs for flood relief and reconstruction. This drastic move, in turn, leaves half of the population, which was not directly affected by the flood, economically vulnerable.
The democracy crisis became particularly visible in regards to the district government system. During the flood crisis, the tenure of local governments expired, but the election commission has not announced elections to fill vacant government position of the districts. Thus, the lack of local governments has a negative effect on the coordination of relief items and reconstructions activities.
Furthermore, the security (terrorism) crisis is interlinked with the food crisis. Those districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Mohmand Agency, North and South Waziristan, Lower and Upper Dir, Shangla), Baluchistan (Dera Bugti), Punjab (DG Kahn, Rajanpur and Muzaffargarh) and Sindh (Dadu, Jacobabad, Shikarpur, Sukkur), which are facing a chronic food crisis, are also classified as most insecure and dangerous districts regarding militancy or tribal violence. At the same time, some of the districts are also the worst flood affected areas which in turn aggravate the already existing crises.
Finally, the flood also has a serious ecological impact. The Indus River is a habitat for rare and endangered species such as the Blind Dolphin. In the course of the flood, barrages were opened and many dolphins could slip into canals, where they died. Also mangroves in lower Sindh and forests in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were destroyed by the flood.

3. Civil-Military Relations

Currently, military and civil government institutions are struggling on issues of distribution of relief aid. The question of dividing the government resources is central. Different stakeholders battle for the greatest share of resources which in turn undermines the efficiency of the state and its ability to address problems.
Pakistan’s image on the outside, but also inside the country, is rather negative. Both media and the establishment created an extremely negative image of the government’s crisis management and portrayed the military as saviour of the people. However, in the case of Punjab, it was initially the local government, not the military, that came to the people’s assistance. Despite many problems, the government is not as incompetent as it is always portrayed.
Nevertheless, the military is the only entity, which is prepared and equipped for such an immense crisis. Regarding government expenditure on the military (approx. 35-40% of government expenditures), it would be logical for the government to use the military for emergency aid. Moreover, there are just no alternative institutions, which could cater in case of floods, earthquakes or other national emergencies. In case of civil-military relations, it should be considered along the cost for deploying the military or the cost of not having alternative institutions in such situations. However, Pakistan and the international community need to esteem the value of the civilian structure of the state which is, despite all inefficiency, committed to the creation of a peaceful Pakistan. Thus, the key is to enable Pakistan to help itself by building and strengthening its civil institutions.

Expectations, Needs and Challenges

• Short term expectations:

1. Physical availability of food items – therefore convincing policy makers to open trade with India through Wagah Border (near Lahore)
2. Humanitarian relief items such as (warm) shelters, beds and blankets
3. Rehabilitation and reconstruction of houses and livelihoods
4. Ban of livestock export, since a huge number of people have lost their animals
5. Assistance in the coordination of aid

• Midterm expectations:

1. Land tenure arrangements, including redistribution and re-demarcation of land. This bears problems of corruption and anger, since land tenure or land ownership is not computerized.
2. Distribution of seed and fertilizers
3. Soil analysis for proper use of agricultural land

• Long term expectations:

1. An overall agricultural policy including land reform (because 80% of land is in the hands of only 20% of people), crop cultivation, size of land, access to water etc.
2. Resettlement programmes for people who live near the rivers
3. Anti-corruption programmes
4. Programmes for the social sector such as education and health facilities
5. Support in regard to the war on terror and its impact on the society
6. Adjustment of aid policy of the international donor community, because it is virtually an extension of the policy of the war on terror (For example, Germany has concentrated its help only on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa although other provinces are equally affected by the flood and problems of militancy)
7. Exchange of international donors, civil society and the government to address and reassess the needs of the people in order to implement aid programmes properly
8. Discontinuation of the sale of military equipment by supplier states (fighter jets from USA and China, Negotiations on buying Submarines from Germany and France). It is the responsibility of supplier states, which are at the same time donors of aid, to prevent Pakistan to spend millions of dollars for military equipment.
9. Exchange of regional experiences (India, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka) towards the establishment of institutional and social structures and how to meet natural disasters
10. Transparency in regard to the implementation of studies such as the post-disaster survey “Damage and Needs Assessment” of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (e.g. objections in terms of validity of data)

Dengue Fever In Pakistan

Already cursed by floods and suicide bombings, Pakistan now faces a new menace from an unprecedented outbreak of the deadly tropical disease dengue fever.
According to Punjab’s Health Department, the number of dengue-affected people is 19,614; of them, 17,000 belong to Lahore. So far, 317 people have died. This fever has spread rapidly among both rich and poor in Pakistan’s cultural capital Lahore.
Dengue affects between 50 and 100 million people in the tropics and subtropics each year, resulting in fever, muscle and joint ache.
But it can also be fatal, developing into haemorrhagic fever and shock syndrome, which is characterised by bleeding and a loss of blood pressure.
Caused by four strains of virus spread by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, there is no vaccine — which is why prevention methods focus on mosquito control.
Pakistani authorities in Lahore have blamed the crisis on prolonged monsoon rains and unusually high seasonal temperatures.
But furious locals say the outbreak is yet another example of government inefficiency, citing a failure to take preventive measures to kill off the mosquitos and lengthy power cuts.
In northwestern province Khyber Paktunkhwa, at least 130 people have been diagnosed and six have died. Southern province Sindh has seen 400 suspected cases and six deaths.
Banners emblazoned with giant sketches of mosquitos and public warning messages such as “Eliminate dengue, Have peace” are hung across avenues and crossings in Lahore, a city of eight million.
At Lahore General Hospital, where most cases have been reported, the corridors were packed with patients and relatives making it difficult to breathe.Outside, medics set up large tents to accommodate family members and patients waiting for treatment, offering some shelter in the sweltering heat.Doctor Zafar Ikram said the hospital was working beyond capacity to deal with the influx of patients.
“I think more people are coming because there is greater awareness about dengue due to the media spotlight and people are scared, so anyone with a normal fever comes to hospital for the (dengue) test,” Ikram told AFP.
At the Mayo hospital, hundreds of people queued up in front of registration counters, giving blood samples and collecting reports.
Teams from the World Health Organisation and Sri Lanka are now helping with the efforts. Schools and colleges initially shut have since reopened.

Government response

Government of Pakistan and Punjab, Pakistan are working on the preventive measures to reduce the spread of the epidemic. The Government of Punjab has opened a hotline called Punjab Health Line Project For Dengue which can be reached at 0800-99000. This is to facilitate the circulation on the signs and symptoms of dengue, reach for help for suspected cases and ultimately help identify areas where the epidemic may have reached. Spraying teams have been organized for the purpose of fumigating, spraying and fogging areas where the Aedes mosquitoes have known to infect people with the virus. Directions are in place for spraying especially in educational institutes. The government threatened to take action against any private school that did not observe to take these measures. Mobile teams operate around the clock to treat affectees on the spot in rural areas. A Special Tribunal for dengue directly reports to the provincial government. Chairman Dengue Emergency Response Committee Khwaja Saad Rafique has also advised private schools to spray twice a week. In early September 2011, the Government of Punjab ordered the schools, colleges and universities in thePakistan to close down for 10 days for intensive spraying. Article 144 has been implemented in Lahore for the prevention of dengue. After an appeal by the Punjab, Pakistan, private hospitals have agreed to provide free treatment to dengue patients.
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Default Pakistan China Relations

Sino-Pak Relations


People's Republic of China–Pakistan relations began in 1950 when Pakistan was among the first countries to break relations with the Republic of China on Taiwan and recognize the PRC. Following the 1962 Sino-Indian War, both countries has placed considerable importance on the maintenance of a extremely close and supportive relationship. Since then, the two countries have regularly exchanged high-level visits resulting in a variety of agreements. The PRC has provided economic, military and technical assistance to Pakistan and each considers the other a close strategic ally.
Bilateral relations have evolved from an initial Chinese policy of neutrality to a partnership that links a smaller but militarily powerful Pakistan, partially dependent on China for its economic and military strength, with China attempting to balance competing interests in the region. Diplomatic relations were established in 1950, military assistance began in 1966, a strategic alliance was formed in 1972 and economic co-operation began in 1979. China has become Pakistan’s largest supplier of arms and its third-largest trading partner. Recently, both nations have decided to cooperate in improving Pakistan's civilian nuclear program.
Favorable relations with China is a pillar of Pakistan's foreign policy. China supported Pakistan's opposition to the Soviet Union's intervention in Afghanistan and is perceived by Pakistan as a regional counterweight to India and the United States. China and Pakistan also share close military relations, with China supplying a range of modern armaments to the Pakistani defense forces. China supports Pakistan's stance on Kashmir while Pakistan supports China on the issues of Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan. Lately, military cooperation has deepened with joint projects producing armaments ranging from fighter jets to guided missile frigates.
Chinese cooperation with Pakistan has reached economic high points, with substantial Chinese investment in Pakistani infrastructural expansion including the Pakistani deep water port at Gwadar. Both countries have an ongoing free trade agreement. Pakistan has served as China's main bridge between Muslim countries. Pakistan also played an important role in bridging the communication gap between China and the West by facilitating the 1972 Nixon visit to China.

Important events:-

1950 - Pakistan becomes the third non-communist country, and first Muslim one, to recognize the People's Republic of China.
1951 - Beijing and Karachi establish diplomatic relations.
1963 - Pakistan cedes the Trans-Karakoram Tract to China, ending border disputes.
1970 - Pakistan helps the U.S. arrange the 1972 Nixon visit to China.
1978 - The Karakoram Highway linking the mountainous Northern Pakistan with Western China officially opens.
1980 - China and the U.S. provide support through Pakistan to the Afghan guerrillas fighting Soviet occupational forces.
1986 - China and Pakistan reach a comprehensive nuclear co-operation agreement.
1996 - Chinese President Jiang Zemin pays a state visit to Pakistan.
1999 - A 300-megawatt nuclear power plant, built with Chinese help in Punjab province, is completed.
2001 - A joint-ventured Chinese-Pakistani tank, the MBT-2000 (Al-Khalid) MBT is completed.
2002 - The building of the Gwadar deep sea port begins, with China as the primary investor.
2003 - Pakistan and China signed a $110 million contract for the construction of a housing project on Multan Road in Lahore.
2007 - The Sino-Pakistani joint-ventured multirole fighter aircraft - the JF-17 Thunder (FC-1 Fierce Dragon) is formally rolled out.
2008 - Pakistan welcomes the Chinese Olympic Torch in an Islamabad sports stadium, under heavy guard amidst security concerns.
2008 - China and Pakistan sign an free trade agreement.
2008 - Pakistan and China to build a railway through the Karakoram Highway, in order to link China's rail network to Gwadar Port.
2008 - The F-22P frigate, comes into service with the Pakistani Navy.
2009 - The ISI arrest several suspected Uyghur terrorists seeking refuge in Pakistan.
2010 - Pakistan and China conduct a joint anti-terrorism drill.
2010 - China donates $260 million in dollars to flood hit Pakistan and sends 4 military rescue helicopters to assist in rescue operations.
2010 - Wen Jiabao visits Pakistan. More than 30 billion dollars worth of deals were signed.
2011 - Pakistan is expected to buy air to air SD 10 missiles from China for its 250 JF 17 thunder fighter fleet

Background:-

While admitting the expansionist tendencies of Communist China in South East Asia-hence Pakistan's membership in SEATO - Pakistan had shown little concern over China as a threat to Pakistan itself. Pakistan was not only the first country to recognise China but it always supported China's claim to the Chinese seat in United Nations. Trading between the two countries began in 1950 and each year Pakistan turned to increase its export of cotton and jute to China. Apprehension over Great Britain's possible entry into the European common market had caused Pakistani salesmen to search for new market everywhere, particularly in Asia. In 1963, Pakistan and china signed a new trade agreement.
India attacked China but was beaten back. Chineese troops entered deep into indian territory in the fall of 1962 and Indian troops retreated. The brightening of Pakistan - China relations actually began when China and India started quarelling over defined Himalayas borders. In 1961, Pakistan approached China requesting negotiations over the borders of Azad Kashmir and China. Before long, Pakistan took other steps to strengthen its relations with China. In June, 1963, the head of Pakistan international Airlines visited China to work out details of air service from Karachi and Dhaka to cities of China.
At the same time, Chineese trade officials began arriving in Pakistan for new talks. In february 1964, Chineese Premier Late Chou Enlai visited Pakistan and declared that Communist China supported Pakistan's demand for a plebicite in Kashmir.
In the serious business of international relations, the old Machiavellian principle of "my enemy's enemy is my friend" Frequently guides a nation's policy for communist China, friendship with Pakistan was not only valuable but it fits the principle. In Chineese, Pakistan found a best and most reliable friend. China always helped Pakistan economically and military when there was no hope for external help. China also assisted Pakistan setting up a number of factories in Pakistan including Larkana Sugar Mills, Taxila Heavy Industries Complex. The relations between the two countries improved gradually.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Program and Chinese Role:-

China helped Pakistan in developing its Nuclear program. though Pakistan’s program is Uranium based–different that that of China. Pakistan already has a nuclear deal. China already has setup two nuclear power plants Chasnupp 1 (300 MW) and Chasnupp 2 (300 MW). The Chashma Nuclear Power Plant is located at Chashma, Punjab, Pakistan. It consists of Chashma Nuclear Power Plant I (CHASNUPP-1) and Chashma Nuclear Power Plant II (CHASNUPP-2). CHASNUPP-3 (600MW under construction) and CHASNUPP-4 (2000 MW planned to be completed before 2030) are in the planning stages. China does not make any 1000 MW plants, so the Chasnupp 4 and Chasnupp 5 etc will be much larger plants beginning in 2010. A series of these will be constructed within the next five years. However this will not be done under floodlights and hoopla. Pakistan’s Nuclear deal with the China is like the American Nuclear deal with Israel. The Chinese help to the Pakistanis is like the assistance the US provided to Britain and then to France to help their Nuclear programs. Pakistan is not the proliferator of Nuclear weapons, it takes the brunt of the blame for nonsensical and vindictive blame game.

Military Relations:-

The People's Republic of China enjoys strong defense ties with Pakistan. This relationship between two adjoining Asian countries is important in the world's geo-strategic alliances. The strong defense ties are primarily to counter regional Indian and American influence, and was also to repel Soviet influence in the area. In recent years this relationship has strengthened through ongoing defence projects and agreements between Pakistan and China.
Since 1962, China has been a steady source of military equipment to the Pakistani Army, helping establish munition factories, providing technological assistance and modernizing existing facilities. The countries are involved in the joint venture of several projects to enhance military and weaponry systems, which include collaborating in the development of JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft, K-8 Karakorum advance training aircraft, space technology, AWACS systems, Al-Khalid tanks and the Babur cruise missile. The armies have a schedule for organising joint military exercises.
China is the largest investor in the Gwadar Deep Sea Port, which is strategically located at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz. It is viewed warily by both America and India as a possible launchpad for Chinese naval operations in the Indian Ocean. However the Gwadar Port is currently delayed due to a multilateral diplomatic standoff between the project leaders and the Singapore government.
China has offered Pakistan military aid in order to fight against terrorism in Pakistan. Pakistan has purchased military equipment from China in order to bolster their efforts against Islamic militants.
In the past, China has played a major role in the development of Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure, especially when increasingly stringent export controls in Western countries made it difficult for Pakistan to acquire materials and uranium enriching equipment from elsewhere. China has supplied Pakistan with equipment to advance their nuclear weapons program, such as the Chinese help in building the Khushab reactor, which plays a key role in Pakistan's production of plutonium. A subsidiary of the China National Nuclear Corporation contributed in Pakistan's efforts to expand its uranium enrichment capabilities by providing 5,000 custom made ring magnets, which are a key component of the bearings that facilitate the high-speed rotation of centrifuges. China has also provided technical and material support in the completion of the Chashma Nuclear Power Complex and plutonium reprocessing facility, which was built in the mid 1990s. China may also have supplied nuclear technology to the Pakistanis, enabling Pakistan to become a nuclear state with an estimated 100 warheads as of 2011.

Issues: -

East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) (also known as the Turkistan Islamic Movement (TIM) is a Waziri based mujihadeen organization that is said to be allied with the Taliban, which has received funding from rogue elements in the ISI. As these militants are labeled as terrorists from the Chinese province of Xinjiang, Pakistan's inability to prevent this is a potential source of conflict.
The U.S. War On Terror has the Chinese wary of U.S. influence in the region, and as Pakistan is a US ally and major recipient of US military and economic aid, China is obligated to step up its support in order to maintain its influence in the region. As political alliances shift, Pakistan may have allies in the United States and China that may begin to see each other as rivals.
Similarly, the warming of Sino-Indian relations puts Pakistan's traditional alliance with China against India at risk. While the level of cooperation between Pakistan and China is far closer than that of India, it poses a future problem for Pakistan-China relations.

2011 Hotan Attack:-

The 2011 Hotan Attack was a series of coordinated bomb and knife attacks that occurred in Hotan, Xinjiang, People's Republic of China on July 18, 2011. While many had always suspected Pakistani involvement in terrorism in Xinjiang, the 2011 Hotan attack marked the first incident of acknowledgement of this by authorities in China.

Analysis of Pak-US vs Pak-China relations:-

Decision makers in Pakistan are often torn between opting for strategic relations with the US or China: ties with either of the two should be mutually exclusive. However, as Pakistanis wonder whether Pakistan is a US ‘ally’ or ‘target’, China with its quiet unobtrusive help continues to win the hearts and minds of the people of Pakistan. The question here is, why is it that the US continues to pump money, train Pakistani security forces and provide technical support, yet it continues to draw flak? It is worth examining the reason for this dichotomy.

The Pak-US military relations have been like a rollercoaster ride. Historically, no US ally has faced as many sanctions from it as Pakistan. A brief history of the Pak-US military relations indicates that they commenced in 1954/55, with the signing of the SEATO/CENTO pact, after which Pakistan started receiving weapons and training from America. In July 1957, Pakistan permitted the US to establish a secret intelligence facility in the country and for the U-2 spy plane to operate from Badaber, near Peshawar. But when the plane was shot down by the Soviet army and its pilot captured alive on May 1, 1960, it embarrassed the US and brought Soviet ire on Pakistan. Since the Pakistani government was kept in the dark regarding the clandestine US operations, it asked the US to wind up its activities in Pakistan.

During the Indo-China war in 1962, the US supply of defence equipment to India, despite Pakistan’s objections, soured the Pak-US relations. On the contrary, the US did not come to Pakistan’s aid either in the 1965 or the 1971 Indo-Pak wars, despite a pact for mutual defence, forcing Pakistan to denounce its SEATO and CENTO membership. In addition, the Pak-US relations underwent a severe blow with Pakistan’s nuclear tests on May 28, 1998, and the ensuing sanctions. The ouster of then premier Nawaz Sharif in 1999 in a military coup led by General Musharraf gave the US government another reason to invoke fresh sanctions under Section 508 of the Foreign Appropriations Act, which included restrictions on foreign military financing and economic assistance.

Now let us examine Pak-China relations briefly. The relationship between the two countries began in 1950s when Pakistan was among the first countries, and the only Muslim nation, to recognise the People’s Republic of China and tried to build good relations with the newly independent country. Pakistan also helped China become a member of the United Nations and has been instrumental in helping it to maintain relations with the Muslim world. It has also played a leading role in bridging the communication gap between China and the West, through Henry Kissinger’s secret visit in 1971, which became the forerunner of President Nixon’s historic Beijing tour, establishing to the world that China was a lawful entity.

Today, China has come a long way from those turbulent times. It is a factor of stability in the region; is the world’s most populous and industrious nation; the world’s third largest economy and trading nation; has become a global innovator in science and technology; and is building a world class university system. It has an increasingly modern military and commands diplomatic respect. In this period of global economic meltdown, China not only has a stable economy, but it also holds roughly $1.5 trillion in US assets, which is at least 65 percent of China’s total foreign assets, and it is the second biggest foreign holder of US debt after Japan.

Pakistan and China’s joint ventures to produce JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft, K-8 Trainer aircraft, Al-Khalid Tank and F-22 Naval Frigates have given a new dimension to the cooperation between the two countries in the field of defence. Heavy Rebuild Factory (HRF) at Taxila, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex at Kamra was also established with Chinese assistance. The Karakoram Highway, the strategic port of Gawadar and the Chashma nuclear reactors are a manifestation of China’s sustained interest in Pakistan.

The problem with the Pak-US relationship is mainly because of trust deficit. The US announces a “strategic partnership” amid much fanfare, and admits its past mistakes in dealing with Pakistan; however, at the first hint of trouble, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton threatens Pakistan of “severe consequences”. The drone attacks continue and despite Pakistan’s serious commitment and sacrifices in the war against terrorism, Washington expects it to “do more”. Strategic partnerships are undoubtedly based on sterner foundations.

Compared with the US, look at Pakistan’s partnership with China where billions of dollars worth of projects are launched without fanfare and without insensitively reminding Pakistanis everyday about the “aid” or asking for audit reports. The treatment meted out to Pakistanis, or even Pakistani-origin US citizens, at the US airports leaves a lot to be desired. The Chinese want to help Pakistan in building its infrastructure; have been there at every moment of trial and tribulation; and have never put restrictions on aid, nor levied sanctions on Pakistan. It is, thus, obvious that Pakistan considers China a more reliable and trustworthy ally.
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