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nisha cute Sunday, February 17, 2013 10:38 AM

Post US withdrawal-implications on Afghanistan
 
can someone give any rough idea about what would be the possible implications of US withdrawal on Afghanistan?
According to me, possibility of civil war, taliban emergence would be some of implications. please contribute your rich ideas,:mellow:

Rida Malik Sunday, February 17, 2013 11:43 AM

[QUOTE=nisha cute;558710]can someone give any rough idea about what would be the possible implications of US withdrawal on Afghanistan?
According to me, possibility of civil war, taliban emergence would be some of implications. please contribute your rich ideas,:mellow:[/QUOTE]
There has been an article on just the same topic in Dawn News Saturday edition i guess. It was about the implications on women freedom and the opportunities they might find narrowed and restricted due to the advent of Taliban again. you can browse through the epapers for this.

NOTE: US withdrawal is not completely happening in 2014 according to recent agreements (Find on internet) . There will be between 10000-20000 troops present in Afghanistan by the year 2024. They are termed 'support Groups"

P.S, guys i also need more information in the same topic

Knights Sunday, February 17, 2013 11:56 AM

[LEFT][B][SIZE="2"]IMPLICATIONS: [/SIZE][/B]
Some evidence might suggest that the security and foreign policy establishments in Central Asia are still in the process of formulating their strategies toward Afghanistan and the Taliban after 2014. One could assume that these entities may well be left with one of the three most likely post-2014 scenarios.

[B][SIZE="2"]Best case scenario:[/SIZE][/B]
The ‘best case scenario’ is that one of the main segments of the movement finally opts for dialogue and eventually joins hands with the central government to seek reconciliation. This would hopefully force more radical groups within the Taliban to follow suit. Regional players might come to realize that helping Afghanistan to recover is not only good from a security point of view, but also in terms of supporting their economies through construction projects and export of industrial and agricultural goods.

[B][SIZE="2"]Business as usual:[/SIZE][/B]
The second “business as usual” scenario would imply that clashes between the Taliban and government forces continue, with the only difference that the latter will have to cope with the insurgency on its own. There are some indications suggesting that the security situation in Afghanistan without ISAF will be much more severe than it is now.

[B][SIZE="2"]Worst case scenario:[/SIZE][/B]
The third “worst case scenario” suggests that NATO’s withdrawal will only boost the Taliban’s morale, bringing Afghanistan to the brink of another civil war and possibly to a second overtaking of Kabul. A situation resembling the second or third scenarios, or a combination of the two, represents the single most serious challenge to Afghanistan’s northern neighbors.

It is still not clear to Central Asian governments which Taliban faction will take the lead in future negotiations: Quetta Shura of Mullah Omar, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezb-e-Islami, or the Haqqani network. All of these factions at some point entertained close contacts with Al Qaeda, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and other jihadist organizations in the region. However, the deteriorating security situation across the border might leave the Central Asian states with little choice but to recognize the Taliban as part of the solution rather than a problem.[/LEFT]

sherazjavedkhan Sunday, February 17, 2013 12:04 PM

US - Withdrawal from Afg and the Regional impacts
 
[QUOTE=nisha cute;558710]can someone give any rough idea about what would be the possible implications of US withdrawal on Afghanistan?
According to me, possibility of civil war, taliban emergence would be some of implications. please contribute your rich ideas,:mellow:[/QUOTE]

here are some my personal views .. .those might differ than else

implications will took place on whole region not only Pakistan ... an expected stance from each country is as ....

[B]Pakistan[/B] will remain with nexus to us in following issues

o Drone Attacks – Sovereignty of Pakistan?
o Pakistan status after withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan
o Pakistan need trade not aid …. Should be supported by US
o NATO and US Operations in Waziristan as US putting pressure
o Democratic Setup Support to Pakistan US
o Need lessen the Mistrust between two … due to 1. Attack on Osama 2. Salala Attack 3. Nato Issue

o Future of Haqani Network ?????

Other countries .....

[B]India and Afghanistan (india wants)[/B]
 Prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe heaven of terrorists
 To counter Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan
 Access raw material from Afghanistan for its own need
 Ending the use of militant outfits by Pakistan
 It will get engaged with the national insurgency in Balochistan
 Definitely india will try to reach Gilgit-Biltistan


[B]Iran[/B]
 Iran needs to decrease in the US forces in Afghanistan
 Interest may be to counter the Taliban influcne
 Expanding its ecomonic ties with Afghanistan and India
 Safe broder with Pakistan
 Close ties with Afghanistan for create stable image in Afghanistan.


[B]China[/B]
 China has its own interest
 May be access Afghanistan’s raw materials and provide a soft challenge to India to maintain status quo
 Emerge as power to get rid of the US presence

[B]Saudi Arabia[/B] (Muslim nation and close ally of US)
 Will work to promote itself as a unifier of Sunni community
 Avoiding Iran’s influence in Afghanistan’s affairs
 Maintain status quo in the ongoing situation to keep the relation with Pakistan as it is.


[B]Russia[/B]
 Has to work for the maintenance of functional government in
Afghanistan
 May create an environment to counter the US’s economic efforts in
Afghanistan.
 Avoiding long term presence of US in Afghanistan


comments are welcome....

regards

Sheraz


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