Originally Posted by nisha cute can someone give any rough idea about what would be the possible implications of US withdrawal on Afghanistan? According to me, possibility of civil war, taliban emergence would be some of implications. please contribute your rich ideas,

IMPLICATIONS:
Some evidence might suggest that the security and foreign policy establishments in Central Asia are still in the process of formulating their strategies toward Afghanistan and the Taliban after 2014. One could assume that these entities may well be left with one of the three most likely post-2014 scenarios.

Best case scenario:
The ‘best case scenario’ is that one of the main segments of the movement finally opts for dialogue and eventually joins hands with the central government to seek reconciliation. This would hopefully force more radical groups within the Taliban to follow suit. Regional players might come to realize that helping Afghanistan to recover is not only good from a security point of view, but also in terms of supporting their economies through construction projects and export of industrial and agricultural goods.

Business as usual:
The second “business as usual” scenario would imply that clashes between the Taliban and government forces continue, with the only difference that the latter will have to cope with the insurgency on its own. There are some indications suggesting that the security situation in Afghanistan without ISAF will be much more severe than it is now.

Worst case scenario:
The third “worst case scenario” suggests that NATO’s withdrawal will only boost the Taliban’s morale, bringing Afghanistan to the brink of another civil war and possibly to a second overtaking of Kabul. A situation resembling the second or third scenarios, or a combination of the two, represents the single most serious challenge to Afghanistan’s northern neighbors.

It is still not clear to Central Asian governments which Taliban faction will take the lead in future negotiations: Quetta Shura of Mullah Omar, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezb-e-Islami, or the Haqqani network. All of these factions at some point entertained close contacts with Al Qaeda, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and other jihadist organizations in the region. However, the deteriorating security situation across the border might leave the Central Asian states with little choice but to recognize the Taliban as part of the solution rather than a problem.

Originally Posted by nisha cute can someone give any rough idea about what would be the possible implications of US withdrawal on Afghanistan? According to me, possibility of civil war, taliban emergence would be some of implications. please contribute your rich ideas,