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Old Monday, December 02, 2013
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Default afghanistan political , security and social condition and its implication in neighb

Background

ASIA IS A BODY OF CLAY AND WATER
AFGHANISTAN IS THE HEART IN THE BODY
IF THERE IS TURMOIL IN THE ASIA , THE WHOLE OF THE ASIA IS IN TURMOIL
IF THERE IS PEACE IN THE ASIA , THE WHOLE OF THE ASIA IS IN PEACE

BACKGROUND
AFGhanistan is located in the south asia , important country regarding the strategic route towards asia , central asia . its peculiar location make it vulnerable to foreign power as a passage to the hegemonic design and proxy wars. Afghanistan ruled by different leaders, amaan ullah governed the country in 1919 , he introduced some good reforms in the country many institutions of co education established in the county .he remain in the power till 1929 . then habib ullah kalakani , abolished different reforms brought by amaan ullah , in 1929 he was persecuted , nadir shah successor of Afghanistan. he also eliminated different reforms of amann ullah , nadir shah was assassinated when he was visiting school .IN 1949 ZAHIR BECAME THE KING OF THE Afghanistan , zahir shah was 19 year old , while his uncle assisted him in running state affairs. zahir shah was exiled in 1972 ,while dawood khan became the prime minister , after end of second world war now era of cold war started , afghanistan remained neutral in both conflicts.but russia (USSR) united soviet socialist republic) wanted accessed to hot water , so once again ussr is a proxy war between Russian imperialism extension , after split of Russia , the major threat to capitalism was communism . in 1883 , when British empire was stretching towards central asia (ACROSS OXUS ) river , but its peculiar location make it vulnerable to proxy war between two empires (RUSSIA AND BRITISH),, TILL 1989 Russia withdraw its troop under ganeva accord , ( economic crisis and over stretching ) of empire was the main causes .

FIGHT FOR KABUL ,,
NAJIB ULLAH BECAME the president , he was backed by russia , but in 1992 ahmed shah mahsud captured kabul , in the mean time different faction hizb i islami ( hekmatyar ) put his forces near capital , but he defeated , taliban movement started in 1993 , from helmend province , this particular movement gain influence with the time ,1995 taliban took control of kabul , ahmed shah was killed . Mullah omar became the ameer of ISLAMIC EMIRATE OF AFGHANISTAN . Freedom fighters from arab countries united in afghanistan , so alqaeeda and its affiliate . sudden tragic incident of 9/11 , fell of twin tower changed the world politics , Afghanistan and Pakistan bore the burnt of this attack .Pakistan changed its foreign policy and took u turn . Bush administration with the license of UNO began carpeted bombing and land intrusion from the central asia . hamid karzai became the president after the
bonn conference ,
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Old Monday, December 02, 2013
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Default Afghanistan security , political ,social impacts in neighbor

afghan president after 2001 war on terror
Hamid karzai contested two election , one in 2004 and second in 2009 , both election he won with majority , but in 2009 ahmed shah mahsud son contested against him , but afced with defeat , as far as the reign of karazi is concerned , the administrative failure was the fate of his era ,

administrative problems

us granted ample aid to afghan (war torn ) country , but this aid was not used properly , instead corruption and mismanagement is the night mare . afghan administrative network is unable to control terrorism ,

drug money
in afghanistan 12 billion dollar annual drug money is collected , many war lord and influential politicians involve in this drug business , even us blamed wali karzai for running same business ,, different anhydrtes factories are operating in the in residential vicinity while government is unable to address this menace .

political instability
hamid karzi government is not rejoicing support of public , pashtun aggregates 44 % of the total population ,talibans represent the pashtun , unfortunately out of politics . (hizb i islami took some government posts , while mullah omar boycotted two election , they term karzai as puppet regime , manipulated by united states for its interest .

political instability is the cause of under social development and bad to worse security situation ,

karzai government
it is the worst government with only control over kabul , the capital is well develop and planned, while the rest of the country is under develop, people are poor . in his 12 year government law and order was in least priority of the administration .
untill the involvement of pashtun in the government political stability cannot be achieved ,

taliban point of view

for taliban democracy is un islamic , one of the bone of the contentious , when taliban opened its office in qatar , the flag was islamic emirate of afghanistan , but karzai government was un willing to accept this political concept , resultantly , qatar office was closed ,

northern alliance
united front of afghanistan accepted democracy and voted karzai in presidential election .
in the nut shell , lack of consensus among political stake holders is the cause of unanimous political set up

afghnistan 2014 election

us will withdraw from 2014 , but presidential election will hold in april , hamid karzai will not participate in the upcoming election , so this wil provide opportunity to bring new faces and leadership to resolve problems of common man

social condition
strict law against women
women cannot go bazar with out male protector , girls are not allowed to attend primary school , religious mentality enforces strict shria law in this land .

poverty
women are compelled to work in poppy field with their child , their wage is poor as compare to other countries . lack of industry , the major industry is arm , ammunition is teh main industry aiong with dry food , drug is teh source of illegal income , tell . how this country wil progress and develop education and health , usa , uno and international community made pledges in the past but no concrete and practical step to address general grievances , mother gives its child opium nad heroin to induce sleep , thsi will produce potent disease , education is the agent of change , but the taliban do not like religious education , this is another aspect of the afghan peole

security situation
afghan national army is unable to operate independly
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Old Tuesday, December 03, 2013
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post withdraw scenario

us has planned to withdraw its troop from afghanistan in 2014 . total us troops stationed in afghanistan is 130000 , and number of nato forces is 80000 , but the dilemma is vulnerability of this forces to taliban cocktail , Afghan army is incapable to control turbulent area ,southern afhganistan helmend , mazar sharif are control of mullah umar while paktia , pakhtakia and kunar are the strong area of haqqani group , while hezb i islami shares kunar , jala bad , langharhar ,paktia, these group appointed shadow governor in their areas ,
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Old Tuesday, December 03, 2013
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greenboy View Post
post withdraw scenario

us has planned to withdraw its troop from afghanistan in 2014 . total us troops stationed in afghanistan is 130000 , and number of nato forces is 80000 , but the dilemma is vulnerability of this forces to taliban cocktail , Afghan army is incapable to control turbulent area ,southern afhganistan helmend , mazar sharif are control of mullah umar while paktia , pakhtakia and kunar are the strong area of haqqani group , while hezb i islami shares kunar , jala bad , langharhar ,paktia, these group appointed shadow governor in their areas ,
AoA

I would like to share my point of view on Post Withdraw Scenario;

i) Afghanistan is like a dead well. Every country having stakes in US lead War has its own consdieration and policies and they dont want to engage themselves in unnecessary issues. They also have got lot of internal pressure to use the money for their own development, safe soldiers and their families from panic etc.

ii) Afghan Government is puppet and cannot control Kabul once foreign troops go back. So the result will be more bloodshed and regional powers playing their cards to control the country.

iii) The country is destroyed to such an extent that its whole economy is running by the foreign funds and money circulated by companies/soldiers, so once these funds are gone, there would be great problem for common people and they may continue to crop cash crops like poppy or will opt for refuge in other countries.

iv) This Post Withdraw scenario will also be crucial for Pakistan, US will stop lot of funds /aid and Taxes collected in form of NATO route will also be stopped which may add up to economical problems. . Secondly there may be influx of more refugees. Thirdly, the TTP factions will wage more aggressive war against the government machinery. Fourthly, India will be trying to intensify its pressure from the Western border through various means.

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