post withdraw scenario and options for pak n neigbor
 

BACK GROUND

US AND NATO trying hard to control through out afghanistan , it is a famous saying that history repeats itself , the land of empire graveyard , freedom spirit of afghanis , this time again world tried hard to subservient its masses , but failed in achieving target , what is next ? is this withdraw (troop) withdraw completely ? will it impact pakistan ? there are different analysis in media ?

major focus of these analysis are

great game

destabilizing pakistan and iran

sectarian violence in middle east will impact pakistan and afghanistan

will harmony among different ethnic groups in afghanistan possible

let try to elaborate these points one by one

america after 9/11 began operation to achieve its objective , later nato united with usa to achieve aims quickly . the objectives were simple
1) defeating al qaeeda , taliban
2) introducing democratic values
3) stabilize afghanistan

question is simple . is international community achieved these objective ? answer is simple and short , NO , international community has not achieved 100% goals..but with the passing day , afghanistan becomes unstable and turmoil , while no consensus develops to resolve the problem .
afghanistan , land of hard line fighters , can bring peace and prosperity in the region but some drastic measures are necessary to tackle the problem before it becomes too late

the biggest problems and challenges of afghanistan are

law and order issues
political problems

crisis of harmony and ethnicity
and its impact in the regional countries

security challenges
currently , 1 30000 troops of usa are deployed in different areas of country , while nato forces are 80000 in number ,but this strength is unable to cope and settle afghanistan security , what are the bottlenecks

1 blame game ,
afghans and isaf blme pakistan fo its failure , different acronym describes in term of failure , pakistan has sanctuary of terrorists and militants , pakistan is sponsoring terrorism in across border ,different suicide attacks and terrorist activities were planned in pakistan . this is all in vain , in the what is the achievement in curbing menaces , in short pakistan is scapegoat for america.

psyche of afghan nation
history it self tells the clear picture, afghan people never allowed any foreign occupation , they always resisted against foreign occupation ,, british empire expedition failed at the corner of amu river , ( between tajikstan and russia ) while only single doctor remained alive to tell the story , the whole company of british was vanished

terrain and geography
afghan terrain is suitable for guerrilla war fare , ambush tactic is appropriate in this war , this strategy worked successfully in the past

different groups in afghans

taliban
alqaeeda
haqani group

taliban
this movement was founded by mullah omar , with the aim to implement islamic laws in the country , with its strict implementation , he enjoyed popularity in afghans ,
major steps of success are
elimination of poppy cultivation
women were restricted in house
statue of buddha was blasted with explosive ,
failed in developing relations it others country

post withdraw scenario
 

this movemnet gave value due to justic and adl
after 9/11 tragedy , taliban sided wiith al qaeeda , counted as the enemy of usa ,

Al qaeeda
main target of 9/11 master execution ,this organization is black listed and its asset and foreign accounts are frozen ,still it is operating afghanistan , northern africa and arab world , in different countries alias group are operating , al shahbab , TTP and in syria

haqqani network this is afghanistan based organization , very cative along pakistan border , it is accredited with different attacks in kabul and its vicinity
american admiral mike mullen says haqqani network is the in veritable arm of isi

actually , these different groups are fighting in region to resist american and us forces , however , us is unable to contain these insurgent group .

security establishment in afghanistan
us forces
nato troops
and afghan national army

us forces after surge number of us troops increased to 130000 , but ability to control afghanistan was dwindle , still different areas are restless and unable to fully administrate by us forces .
mainly , southern afghanistan , jalaabad , helment are the areas under us influence .

nato troops , this is collection of 27 countries of the world , this iorganization contributed 80000 troops to the peace and bring situation normal in the region , it is unable to control the region of restless ,turmoil , mostly station in pak afghan border areas , kunar , nooristan and paktia

these forces conducted different operations with the time , collectively , un able to control the restless situation in the turmoil and violent situation in afghanistan , but insurgent grow and stretch influence outside kabul .

Afghan national army strength is 20000 , but bottle neck lies in training and equipment , basically , this force lacks sophisticated weapons and force to counter different insurgencies in the region , however , us gave tarining to raise teh level of troops , and hoping after withdraw they contriol country , majority peopel are hazars and tajiks , pasthun actually got training and left it ,, ana number, training and its unity of command is questionable after us complete withdraw

views of different group regarding withdarw ,
taliban
this particular group wants complete withdraw of forces (foreign and us) , they came in negotiation table but disagreement with afghan president left peaceful resolution, however exert influence in different part of country

haqqani group rogue group affiliate with al qaeda and taliban , conducetd deadly and lethal attacks including serena hotel , kabul road side mine attack and different brutal incidents , capture of us solider . opposed peace process and same view as atliban

hizb e islami , took some seats from karzai administration , coalition partner in government but also hostile to us forces .only wish complete withdraw of foreign forces.

post withdraw problems

regional player influence
iran
has influence and sympathesis in northern alliance , so put it to form stable government in kabul.

pakistan ,
prime minister repeated his stance remain neutral in afghan solution ,our country do not endorse and support any insurgent group . pakistan facilitate peace process through consecutive meeting between mullah bradar and afghan peace council .
new great game ,
pakistan do not endorse any new game in the region , india is not allowed to stay after us withdraw , us wants role for india after withdraw , it intention and wish against interest ,pakistan has strong evidence of indian involvement in subversion activities , former , goal to encircle strategically . us assumes india as regional power and counter china , this is all new game but region is more active for such policy .

new plethora of bsa (bilateral security agreement )
afghan and us signed strategic agreement , but hamid karzai and doesnot consent , us want presence in the region for 30000 troops , and impunity from afghan , however in present situation , this is not possible .

blessing in the disguise

hope ful , prosper and stable afghanistan in the interest of region , particularly pakistan because facing the burnt of this war ,ttp has safe heaven inside afghan soil to undermine interest of pakistan , pakistan want neutral role of afghanistan . stable and harmony afghan is in interest of whole region .

negative aspect
northern alliance and taliban
northern alliance are sided with us , if history repeat itself of atrocities and brutalities , hope so mullah umar in favor of its people and happy ending and smooth controlling of country , iran put its influence in northern alliance .
sectarian violence
this opportunity will put great sectarian violence in the region , teh whole middle east is engulfing due to this war , but now tame the time and bring prosperity in teh region .


kindly check and make appropriate amendment