Originally Posted by NASSEEM

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Originally Posted by fouzia23

US WITHDARAL FROM AFGHINISTAN ITS IMPACT ON PAKISTAN AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR STAKEHOLDERS

Introduction
Pakistan and Afghanistan are generally labeled as inseparable states due to their historical, religious, cultural, linguistic, trade and ethnic linkages. However, the modern account of bilateral relations between Kabul and Islamabad reveals turbulence. The main reasons for this rocky relationship are the issues related to the Durand Line, the idea of a greater Pakhtunistan, the 1980’s Soviet War, the rise of the Taliban, post 9/11 war, and India’s rising influence in Afghanistan. The nature of Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan has predominantly been shaped by the Doctrine of Strategic Depth. Since 9/11 till now Pak-US relations are on a roller coaster. The relationship has seen a lot of ups and downs. However, the fact of the matter is that the US will always depend upon Pakistan until and unless she departs from this region. US has decided to leave Afghanistan at the end of 2014. In the wake of US withdrawl Pakistan has to face many challenges some of them are listed below.
Civil War in FATA
Pakistan is home to a plethora of terrorist groups that keep the region unstable, and contribute to the spread of global terrorism. The withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2014 is likely to be followed by a civil war between a predominantly non-Pashtun security apparatus and Pakistan-backed Taliban forces.
New War Front in Blochistan
As India is already using mischievious design to destabilize and hinder Pakistan’s progress by intervening in Blochistan and creating hatered among the people. Pakistan alleges India of starting separate movement in blochistan and sectarian voilance in Pakistan. After the US withdrawl India will find excuse to stay in Afghanistan for development purpose and would create more problems for Pakistan.
Threat to strategic depth
Since her inception Pakistan finds her strategic depth in Afghanistan and it has earned bad name for Pakistan too but stability of Afghanistan and absence of India in that region is dire need of Pakistan. Because India has never accepted Pakistan from heart and always tries to destabilize it. Presence of India on Eastern and Western border will minimize strategic depth of Pakistan and Pakistan will become sandwich between both borders. In this situation India could easily harm Pakistan in any way.
Reduction in US aid
War and terror has affected Pakistan’s economy very badly. No investor wants to invest in Pakistan because of security concerns so US aid is main source for smooth running of Pakistan but US withdrawl gives hint that Pakistan would not remain front line state on war on terror so US aid will also reduce which will cripple Pakistan’s economy.
Threat of non access to Central Asian States
India’s permanent presence in Afghanistan could hinder in the realization of Pakistan’s dream of assuming the role of service provider to Central Asian states and eliminating her own starvation of energy. Security problems in Pakistan are main reason of delay in construction of Gawadar port and Pakistan’s access to supply line.
Renewing Border Clash with Afghanistan
During 1947 to 1979, the issues regarding the Durand Line and Pakhtunistan remained the major concerns for Pakistan’s foreign policy. Pakistan did not have a comprehensive Afghan policy and it simply reacted to Afghanistan’s actions. Kabul had extended support to Baloch and Pakhtun nationalists inside Pakistan and even had called for the creation of a new state called “Pakhtunistan”. It had also objected to Pakistan’s admission into the United Nations, with justifications that Pakistan’s Northwest Frontier should not be recognized as its part until the Pakhtuns of that area were given the opportunity to decide for independence. After the US withdrawl if Taliban government assumes power then this issue could create problem for Pakistan
Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations
Afghanistan-Pakistan relations have seen both highs and lows in the last few years. The political leaders have held several meetings but President Karzai often directly blames Pakistan for attacks in Afghanistan. The two countries signed a “transit trade” agreement three years ago to allow for easier export of Afghan agricultural products through Pakistan. Afghan trucks are not permitted to move cargo back from India, however. Afghan-Pakistani trade currently totals around $2 billion. The two countries also are discussing the possibility of joint economic projects like building a common hydroelectric station.
Recommendations
i. To the United States:
 An abrupt US departure from the region is not desired by anyone as this will exponentially increase the complexities of the Afghan crisis. However, a clear-cut road map with regards a peaceful resolution of Afghan crisis is strongly needed.
 The United States has also realized that it cannot settle the Afghan crisis on its own. Pakistan is in fact indispensable to a peaceful settlement of Afghan imbroglio. Therefore it shall be given its due role.
 Washington must think on the lines of formally giving share to Taliban in government or shall give government to them in provinces which are under their control.
 There has been no progress on the Reconciliation Commission and Delisting Commission therefore Washington must sincerely pursue the affairs of these two commissions in order to win Taliban’s trust.
 The US should work on winning hearts and minds in the region by economic incentives. In this regard a look like of Marshal Plan arrangement can be made in Pak-Afghan region.
 United States shall be mindful of Pakistan’s sensitivities vis-à-vis New Delhi.
ii. To the Government of Afghanistan:
 Afghans have never settled their issues themselves. Therefore, the more the international community involves itself in ironing out Afghan quagmire, the more the acceptability will be.
 The Afghan government shall marginalize and take action against those who work against the interest of Pakistan and in that regard shall discourage use of her land against Pakistan’s interests.
 The Afghan government/High Peace Council shall take the lead in holding the International Ulema Conference in the nearest future which can help them reach out to Tehrik Taliban Afghanistan.
 The peace process shall be owned by the Afghan government and shall remain flexible.
 The Afghan Government shall try to convince Pakistan and the United States to release all those Taliban commanders who could help them in initiating dialogue process for peace-building.
iii. To the Government of Pakistan:
 Pakistan shall evolve a proactive Afghan foreign policy rather than reactionary one.
 Pakistan should continue convincing the US and Afghan regime into limiting India’s role in Afghanistan and increasing its volume of investment and reconstruction/development works. This effort will also help Pakistan compete with other contenders and make a strong place for itself.
 Islamabad shall peruse two Ds policy in FATA: Development and dialogue. However, the government must involve the elders and Maliks in the development and dialogue process.
 Necessary administrative reforms shall be introduced in FATA which can make the system more transparent and responsive.
 Recently, Pakistan’s foreign office is more assertive with regard Afghan foreign policy. Nonetheless, it needs to engage the military establishment in charting out future policies because eventually it is the military which practically implements policies.
 Pakistan must understand that Afghanistan is her growth engine. The savor of Pakistani goods has already been developed in Afghan population and the former shall take advantage of this association.
 It is pertinent to mention here that Pak-Afghan region is a trade specific region rather than a production hub. Therefore, Pakistan must liberalize its policy and shall tap the enormous potential of its trade route.
 Pakistan can serve as energy corridor and this will help the region in two ways. Firstly, it will promote interdependence, peace, and tranquility; and secondly it will help Pakistan exploit its industrial potential.
Conclusion:
A complete withdrawal of US and NATO forces by 2014 seems unrealistic but if this happens, the new set up will definitely be quite challenging for Pakistan. However, the challenges can be converted into opportunities with prudent and sagacious policies. Though Islamabad has to pacify various NSA groups which would be quite challenging, it can tap the enormous potential of its geo-strategic location. Pakistan’s communication network and its ports serve as lifeline for the land locked Afghanistan and Central Asian States. Restoration of peace in Afghanistan will open up the mineral rich Central Asian Republics to the rest of the world via Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan and Afghanistan need to cooperate and develop a harmonized relation in order to get maximum economic dividends from the theatre of vast economic opportunities. The sooner both the countries realize each other’s importance the better it would be for their future generations.

Originally Posted by Sanambaloch

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Originally Posted by Sanambaloch

Hey fouzia great piece workk.. Is it possible if you please help me regarding current affairs?
Reply at this time would be appreciated

Originally Posted by fouzia23

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