Introduction
The United States and its allies accuse Iran of seeking to build a nuclear weapon. Iran denies the charge saying its program is only for peaceful purposes, including power generation and developing medical treatments. At the third round of GENEVA talks (November 20-24) , an interim six months deal was finally reached limiting Iranian Uranium enrichment to 5% in return of partial relief from economic sanctions. Enriched uranium can be used to build a weapon if it is enriched more than 90 percent. At lower levels, it is used to power nuclear reactors.
US Secretary of State John Kerry claimed :
“ The deal actually roll back the Iranian nuclear program from where it is today”
Whereas the Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif insisted :
“Iran has not given up her right to enrichment”
Agreement Provisions
The agreement makes the following stipulations on the Iranian nuclear program
• All uranium enriched beyond 5% will either be diluted or converted to uranium oxide. No new uranium at the 3.5% enrichment level will be added to Iran's current stock.
• No new centrifuges will be installed or prepared for installation.
• 50% of the centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment facility and 75% at the Fordow enrichment facility will be left inoperable. Iran will not use its advanced IR-2 centrifuges for enrichment.
• Iran will not develop any new uranium enrichment or nuclear reprocessing facilities.
• No fuel will be produced, tested, or transferred to the Arak nuclear power plant. In addition, Iran will share design details of the reactor.
• The IAEA will be granted daily access to Natanz and Fordow, with certain sites monitored by 24-hour cameras. The IAEA will also have access to Iran's uranium mines and centrifuge production facilities.
• Iran will address IAEA questions related to possible military dimensions of the nuclear program and provide data expected as part of an Additional Protocol.
In exchange, Iran will receive relief from sanctions of approximately US$7 billion (£4.3 billion) and no additional sanctions will be imposed.
USA’s need to signed agreement with Iran:
• Elimination of Nuclear Weapons
As history is evident that Iranian government has never accepted Israel by heart and her nuclear program is suspected to be Israel oriented. Israel is allay of America so in order to maintain the status quo of her allay America has two options either launch a war against Iran or negotiate with her. After terrible experience in Afghanistan and recession back home war was not a feasible option for America so she decided to solve the matter peacefully on negotiations table.
• Iran as mediator in solving Syrian Issue
Bashar ul Assad’s government has friendly relations with Iran and Iran is alleged by Syrian opposition for supporting Bashar ul Assads’ government that is very reason , America considers Iran as important player in resolving Syrian issue. Kerry, in a shift in tone, held out the possibility of Iran playing a constructive. Kerry said
"Iran could participate very easily if they would simply accept the Geneva 1 premise on which Geneva 2 is based,”
He added:
"We are happy to have Iran be helpful. Everybody is happy to have Iran be helpful,"
• Tempering Iranian support For Hizbullah
Israel’s another concern is Hizbullah which is backed by Iran and another reason behind America’s agreement finds its roots in attempt to convince Iran for tempering her support for hizbullah’s militancy and assurance that Iran would not support any kind of terrorism activity in region. In return Iran sought for assurance of America’s concrete action against anti Iran government in Iraq.
• Energy desire
Last but not least important reason for agreement is energy needs for which America has been alleged to start war in Afghanistan, meddling with China and securing bases in Central Asian states. Iran has second largest reservoirs of oil and America can incalculably benefit from those reservoirs in case of her energy needs.
Iran’s need to signed agreement with America:
• Freedom from Sanctions:
Iran desperately desires to preserve her regime as western sanctions have limitized export base of Iran even sitting on second largest reservoirs of oil and increased economic pressure on Iran and effected wide swath of public.
• Change in Public Opinion
Recent elections and change of government has clearly signaled Iranian government that public is no more backing the government’s stance over nuclear program. This very notion has forced Iranian government to shake hand with west and find some corner to open up to world in her country’s larger benefit.
• Boost to economy
Agreement between Iran and America after achieving maturity , Iran would be able to boost her economy by trading with world and especially west. As Iran has great potential to provide investment ground for multinational companies , Investors would love to invest in Iran.
Israel’s concern on US-IRAN Agreement
Israeli leadership freaked out after noticing rapprochement between Iran and Us. For the last 20 years , Israel has been warning World of Iran’s fictive “Atomic Bomb”. This bogus Iranian threat has been recognized as phantom. Israel intends maintain hegemony over Middle East and does not want to make real concessions to Palestine. Israel has been caught with fear that Israel would be politically isolated after Iran and America’s deal. "It's a bad deal -- an exceedingly bad deal," Netanyahu told CNN. At the same time, Netanyahu repeated his insistence that Israel "always reserves the right to defend itself against any threat,". Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warnedthat he thinks the U.S. is falling into an Iranian trap. All these statements are clear sign that how much Israel is obsessed with Iran –US agreement.


Saudi Arab’s concern on US-IRAN Agreement
The Sunni states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, are worried not only by the American pullout from the region but also by the rise of Iranian hegemony. Concerns about Tehran are not confined to its nuclear aspirations. The Gulf states are observing with trepidation the extensive terrorist activity being conducted by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds ‏(Jerusalem‏) Force and Tehran’s increasing involvement in blood-drenched conflicts between Sunnis and Shi’ites across the region, epitomized by its activity in the Syrian civil war.
The statement issued by Riyadh welcoming the signing of the Geneva agreement sounded skeptical and constrained. Notable was the comment that the agreement stirs hope, “if there are good intentions.” Senior Saudi officials, briefing journalists and think-tank analysts in the West, made it clear that if their country was not convinced that the agreement would put a stop to Iran’s project, it would consider acquiring nuclear weapons for itself as a counterweight to the Iranians’ might. Saudi Arabia has rejected her Security Council seat with justification of UN’s failure in middle east but this stance would have got appreciation if Saudi Arabia has took this step three years ago when Syria war was ignited but at this time it finds its roots in Saudi Arabia’s reaction over Iran –US agreement.
Pakistan’s benefit in Iran-US deal
Normalisation of Iran`s ties with the West helps Pakistan in many ways.
• IP gas pipe line
The fore most concern should be immediate completion of IP gas pipe line . US has always opposed this very project in the wake of violation to sanctions imposed on Iran. Recent agreement has provided a ray of hope that US sanctions would die soon and Pakistan and Iran would get room for speedy completion of gas pipe line which was hampred due to lack of funds and warnings it could be in violation of U.S. sanctions.
• Revisiting Foreign Policy Of Pakistan
Pakistan is under pressure by her political leadership to take a stern stance over drone strikes and recent incidents one of provincial government is trying to stop NATO supply line. In this scenario America’s settled relations with Iran would reduce Pakistan’s role as service provider and revenue because of this very role will fly to Iran. Another point is worth noting that America is now leaving Afghanistan and there will no benefit in stopping NATO supply line. Iran provides another short route for withdrawal so this not going to benefit Pakistan in any way.

Excellent Work.... And you surely will fetch really good marks in your compulsories this time around.

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True knowledge exists in knowing that you know nothing. "Socrates"

GSP Plus: opportunities and challenges
Professor Jagdish Bhagwati, in his article ‘Why free trade matters’, says:
“Contrary to what sceptics often assert, the case for free trade is robust. It not only extends to overall prosperity, but also to distributional outcomes, which makes the free-trade argument morally compelling as well”.
However, despite all textbook arguments in favour of free trade between nations, international trade has always been held by the chains of tariffs and non-tariffs. The old mercantilism, which favoured exports and discouraged imports by erecting high tariff walls, still reigns supreme. Though tariffs were considerably reduced owing to the WTO and Washington Consensus but they are still so high – especially in the case of sensitive products like textiles – that their reduction for an exporting country is a matter of celebration.
Regional trade agreements (RTAs), preferential trade agreements (PTAs), and free trade agreements (FTAs) and generalised systems of preferences (GSPs) are all deviations from the most favoured nation (MFN) principle – favour one, favour all – of the WTO which forms the bedrock of the superstructure WTO is based on. Critics like Professor Bhagwati say that they are not necessarily born out of some economic thinking rather it is the bandwagon effect that explains their mushroom growth as no country wants to be left behind in of the race for PTAs and FTAs.
Political exigencies outweigh economic considerations in negotiating such trading arrangements. Governments certainly gain political and diplomatic mileage through such trade agreements. We may continue buying tea from Kenya at comparatively high prices compared with Sri Lanka with whom we have entered into an FTA or Sri Lanka may refuse entry to our mangoes under the pressure of domestic lobbies but the FTA between Pakistan and Sri Lanka has certainly helped foster political and diplomatic ties between the two countries.
Distortions in the global trading system are there to stay for long. We have to live with them unless mercantilist thinking is scratched out of the collective subconscious of the nations. In this context, euphoria in our political and trade circles over GSP Plus status to Pakistan makes sense.
What is a GSP status?
In common parlance, GSP means programmes devised by developed countries granting preferential treatment to the imports from developing countries. According to the European Commission’s ‘Practical guide to GSP trade regime’, GSP has three strands.
First, ‘everything but arms (EBA)’ means duty-free quota-free access to the EU market for all products from the 49 least developed countries.
Second, GSP+ – deep tariff cuts for ten countries which have ratified and implemented 27 international conventions relating to human and labour rights, environment and good governance. The first 10 GSP+ countries are Armenia, Bolivia, Cape Verde, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Georgia, Mongolia, Paraguay, Pakistan and Peru.
The third category relates to the general arrangements of preferences for countries other than those falling under EBA and GSP Plus.
What is the criterion for GSP Plus?
GSP Plus has two basic conditions.
First, a country must have ratified and implemented 27 UN conventions relating to human rights (like conventions on elimination of all forms of discrimination against women, rights of the child, abolition of forced labour, and prohibition and immediate action for the elimination of the worst forms of child labour etc), environment (conventions on climate change, international trade in endangered species, biological diversity, and narcotics drugs etc) and good governance (convention against corruption).
The second criterion for GSP Plus is that a country must be a ‘vulnerable country’ which means that a country is not classified as a high income country and the five largest sections of its GSP-covered exports account for more than 75 percent of total GSP-covered exports to EU, meaning it lacks diversification in exports and integration with the global trading system.
It needs to be emphasised here that tariff cuts will not automatically translate into increase in exports to EU. In case of EU more than half of MFN tariff lines are set at zero and about one fourth are below five percent ad valorem. Several of our export commodities like rice, sports goods, surgical instruments, meat products and fruits already had duty free access to EU as the normal tariffs were set at zero; GSP Plus is not relevant in their case.
The lesson is very simple and straight. It is not only the tariff that constitutes competitive advantage rather production costs, quality, economies of scale and delivery efficiencies also matter. According to the WTO working paper, ‘New evidence on preference utilization (2012)’, preference utilisation has an element of fixed cost and preference utilisation increases with increase both in the preferential margin and the volume of exports. The point here is that taking advantage out of reduced tariffs depends on number of variables. Getting preferential treatment in terms of tariff is one thing and its optimum utilisation is totally another.
Limitations of GPS+ Status
Further, the GSP Plus status is not a free lunch. Article 14 of the New GSP Regulation (Regulation No 978/2012) of the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union stipulates that by January 1, 2016, and every two years thereafter, the European Commission will present a report to the European parliament and the European Council regarding implementation of 27 conventions.
Article 15 further provides that in case a GSP Plus beneficiary country does not respect its binding undertakings, or formulates a reservation, the GSP Plus status will be withdrawn. Further, the burden of proof regarding compliance with the obligations resulting from the binding undertakings lies with the GSP Plus beneficiary country. But that does not mean that GSP Plus is not an opportunity worth grasping. Prior to the granting of the status, Pakistan was a beneficiary of preferential tariffs in the EU but such tariff concessions were also available to all other developing countries including China, India, and Brazil etc. Pakistan’s major exports like value added textile goods, footwear, leather, plastics and non-value added textiles respectively faced tariffs up to 9.6 percent,12 percent, 5.5 percent, 3 percent and 6.4 percent which will now be reduced to zero.
Under the GSP, these products were facing stiff competition from China, India and Brazil due to economies of scale, meaning they had competitive advantage compared to Pakistan due to reduced costs. Even Bangladesh was giving a tough competition to Pakistan in garments since its exports to EU were duty-free. It is no secret that garment manufacturing units were established by Pakistani businessmen in Bangladesh inter alia to take advantage of such tariff concessions.

However, in order to capitalise on the opportunities created by the GSP Plus, we need to overcome the supply-side constraints. If you are unable to increase your production capacity, deepening of market access hardly makes any sense. Shortage of electricity and gas to the export industry is one challenge. Standards compliance, certification, and quality control etc are a few others that need to be addressed through a coherent and well-designed policy.
Benefits for Textile Industry
Textile lobbies are very strong in the EU as well as in textile exporting countries. GSP Plus may trigger strong defensive action from such lobbies within EU countries in the name of job losses. Bangladesh, China, and India, who are our competitors, may also initiate offensive actions. Such defensive and offensive actions will necessarily be on the pretexts of standards, quality, child labour and human rights violations etc and the earlier we prepare ourselves for countering such onslaught, the better. The government should come up with a coherent communications strategy to bring all the stakeholders into the loop regarding the opportunities and challenges arising out of GSP Plus.
GSP Plus status: Challenges & opportunities for Pakistan
A number of challenges face the textile industry, the foremost being the need for diversification of its export base.
Energy crisis,
This appears a major hindrance to expanding the product base for textile exports. Many textile units were closed down at the end of 2012, owing to shortage of power supply for a long time. Many textile units even moved to Bangladesh, Turkey and Sri Lanka due to tariff concessions, easy market access and adequate energy supply in these countries. Punjab-based textiles were particularly hard hit by the energy crisis, which contribute 75 per cent to the total textile industry. However, in March 2013, the export performance of these textile industries improved to a large extent, mainly as a result of the contribution of few large-scale textile industries developing their own power producing units.
Obsolete infrastructure
Diversification in the export base is not possible unless new and efficient production units are set up, which is not attainable in the short run. Moreover, foreign direct investment (FDI) in the textile sector has been on the decline for the last few years, which explains the poor condition of the textile infrastructure. According to the Board of Investment (BOI), FDI inflows in textiles have decreased from $29.8 million (2012) to $10 million (2013). Other factors adding to the misery of the industry include rapidly fluctuating prices of raw materials, increasing cost of production, bureaucratic hurdles faced by textile exporters and a tight monetary policy.
Difficulty in Adhoc Basis Exports
Keeping in view the current situation, it would be difficult to expand the export base of textile products on an adhoc basis. However, timely policy actions can help this sector enjoy the privileges of the GSP Plus status.
• Government support to Small- and Medium-Scale Textile Units
First, the government can extend its support to small- and medium-scale textile units. Loans for working capital on low interest rate can be offered so as to make them operational. This would enhance the production capability of the existing production units. Moreover, financial support can be offered in establishing small-scale bio-fuel electricity generating plants or other alternative low-cost plants to ensure that production is sustainable.
• Attract FDI
Second, efforts should be made to attract FDI towards this sector. When the GSP Plus status was granted to Bangladesh, it attracted massive amounts of FDI. In order to attract a substantial amount of FDI in Pakistan, the BOI must ensure the security of foreign assets and profits. To attract FDI, Bangladesh had offered unconditional 100 per cent foreign equity for industrial investments. Tax exemptions of five to seven years were granted. Bangladeshi citizenship was also offered on investment of $75,000. The process of repatriation of capital investments was simplified and was allowed without any prior permission of any authority. Pakistan can also consider relaxing its investment policy in light of the aforementioned steps taken in Bangladesh.
• Refrain from Intervening in Price Settings
The government can also refrain from intervening in setting the prices of raw materials and promote greater competition in the production of intermediate goods so that prices of inputs are lowered and small textile units can operate at a low cost. The replacement of exports from high duty countries to EU countries can also help. Outsourcing of the production process and the import of low-cost raw materials from India would also enable our textile industry to fully reap the benefits of the GSP Plus status.

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We always see the point of an iceberg. I’ve always accepted the idea that people don’t necessarily know everything I am

US WITHDARAL FROM AFGHINISTAN ITS IMPACT ON PAKISTAN AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR STAKEHOLDERS

Introduction
Pakistan and Afghanistan are generally labeled as inseparable states due to their historical, religious, cultural, linguistic, trade and ethnic linkages. However, the modern account of bilateral relations between Kabul and Islamabad reveals turbulence. The main reasons for this rocky relationship are the issues related to the Durand Line, the idea of a greater Pakhtunistan, the 1980’s Soviet War, the rise of the Taliban, post 9/11 war, and India’s rising influence in Afghanistan. The nature of Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan has predominantly been shaped by the Doctrine of Strategic Depth. Since 9/11 till now Pak-US relations are on a roller coaster. The relationship has seen a lot of ups and downs. However, the fact of the matter is that the US will always depend upon Pakistan until and unless she departs from this region. US has decided to leave Afghanistan at the end of 2014. In the wake of US withdrawl Pakistan has to face many challenges some of them are listed below.
Civil War in FATA
Pakistan is home to a plethora of terrorist groups that keep the region unstable, and contribute to the spread of global terrorism. The withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2014 is likely to be followed by a civil war between a predominantly non-Pashtun security apparatus and Pakistan-backed Taliban forces.
New War Front in Blochistan
As India is already using mischievious design to destabilize and hinder Pakistan’s progress by intervening in Blochistan and creating hatered among the people. Pakistan alleges India of starting separate movement in blochistan and sectarian voilance in Pakistan. After the US withdrawl India will find excuse to stay in Afghanistan for development purpose and would create more problems for Pakistan.
Threat to strategic depth
Since her inception Pakistan finds her strategic depth in Afghanistan and it has earned bad name for Pakistan too but stability of Afghanistan and absence of India in that region is dire need of Pakistan. Because India has never accepted Pakistan from heart and always tries to destabilize it. Presence of India on Eastern and Western border will minimize strategic depth of Pakistan and Pakistan will become sandwich between both borders. In this situation India could easily harm Pakistan in any way.
Reduction in US aid
War and terror has affected Pakistan’s economy very badly. No investor wants to invest in Pakistan because of security concerns so US aid is main source for smooth running of Pakistan but US withdrawl gives hint that Pakistan would not remain front line state on war on terror so US aid will also reduce which will cripple Pakistan’s economy.
Threat of non access to Central Asian States
India’s permanent presence in Afghanistan could hinder in the realization of Pakistan’s dream of assuming the role of service provider to Central Asian states and eliminating her own starvation of energy. Security problems in Pakistan are main reason of delay in construction of Gawadar port and Pakistan’s access to supply line.
Renewing Border Clash with Afghanistan
During 1947 to 1979, the issues regarding the Durand Line and Pakhtunistan remained the major concerns for Pakistan’s foreign policy. Pakistan did not have a comprehensive Afghan policy and it simply reacted to Afghanistan’s actions. Kabul had extended support to Baloch and Pakhtun nationalists inside Pakistan and even had called for the creation of a new state called “Pakhtunistan”. It had also objected to Pakistan’s admission into the United Nations, with justifications that Pakistan’s Northwest Frontier should not be recognized as its part until the Pakhtuns of that area were given the opportunity to decide for independence. After the US withdrawl if Taliban government assumes power then this issue could create problem for Pakistan
Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations
Afghanistan-Pakistan relations have seen both highs and lows in the last few years. The political leaders have held several meetings but President Karzai often directly blames Pakistan for attacks in Afghanistan. The two countries signed a “transit trade” agreement three years ago to allow for easier export of Afghan agricultural products through Pakistan. Afghan trucks are not permitted to move cargo back from India, however. Afghan-Pakistani trade currently totals around $2 billion. The two countries also are discussing the possibility of joint economic projects like building a common hydroelectric station.
Recommendations
i. To the United States:
 An abrupt US departure from the region is not desired by anyone as this will exponentially increase the complexities of the Afghan crisis. However, a clear-cut road map with regards a peaceful resolution of Afghan crisis is strongly needed.
 The United States has also realized that it cannot settle the Afghan crisis on its own. Pakistan is in fact indispensable to a peaceful settlement of Afghan imbroglio. Therefore it shall be given its due role.
 Washington must think on the lines of formally giving share to Taliban in government or shall give government to them in provinces which are under their control.
 There has been no progress on the Reconciliation Commission and Delisting Commission therefore Washington must sincerely pursue the affairs of these two commissions in order to win Taliban’s trust.
 The US should work on winning hearts and minds in the region by economic incentives. In this regard a look like of Marshal Plan arrangement can be made in Pak-Afghan region.
 United States shall be mindful of Pakistan’s sensitivities vis-à-vis New Delhi.
ii. To the Government of Afghanistan:
 Afghans have never settled their issues themselves. Therefore, the more the international community involves itself in ironing out Afghan quagmire, the more the acceptability will be.
 The Afghan government shall marginalize and take action against those who work against the interest of Pakistan and in that regard shall discourage use of her land against Pakistan’s interests.
 The Afghan government/High Peace Council shall take the lead in holding the International Ulema Conference in the nearest future which can help them reach out to Tehrik Taliban Afghanistan.
 The peace process shall be owned by the Afghan government and shall remain flexible.
 The Afghan Government shall try to convince Pakistan and the United States to release all those Taliban commanders who could help them in initiating dialogue process for peace-building.
iii. To the Government of Pakistan:
 Pakistan shall evolve a proactive Afghan foreign policy rather than reactionary one.
 Pakistan should continue convincing the US and Afghan regime into limiting India’s role in Afghanistan and increasing its volume of investment and reconstruction/development works. This effort will also help Pakistan compete with other contenders and make a strong place for itself.
 Islamabad shall peruse two Ds policy in FATA: Development and dialogue. However, the government must involve the elders and Maliks in the development and dialogue process.
 Necessary administrative reforms shall be introduced in FATA which can make the system more transparent and responsive.
 Recently, Pakistan’s foreign office is more assertive with regard Afghan foreign policy. Nonetheless, it needs to engage the military establishment in charting out future policies because eventually it is the military which practically implements policies.
 Pakistan must understand that Afghanistan is her growth engine. The savor of Pakistani goods has already been developed in Afghan population and the former shall take advantage of this association.
 It is pertinent to mention here that Pak-Afghan region is a trade specific region rather than a production hub. Therefore, Pakistan must liberalize its policy and shall tap the enormous potential of its trade route.
 Pakistan can serve as energy corridor and this will help the region in two ways. Firstly, it will promote interdependence, peace, and tranquility; and secondly it will help Pakistan exploit its industrial potential.
Conclusion:
A complete withdrawal of US and NATO forces by 2014 seems unrealistic but if this happens, the new set up will definitely be quite challenging for Pakistan. However, the challenges can be converted into opportunities with prudent and sagacious policies. Though Islamabad has to pacify various NSA groups which would be quite challenging, it can tap the enormous potential of its geo-strategic location. Pakistan’s communication network and its ports serve as lifeline for the land locked Afghanistan and Central Asian States. Restoration of peace in Afghanistan will open up the mineral rich Central Asian Republics to the rest of the world via Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan and Afghanistan need to cooperate and develop a harmonized relation in order to get maximum economic dividends from the theatre of vast economic opportunities. The sooner both the countries realize each other’s importance the better it would be for their future generations.

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We always see the point of an iceberg. I’ve always accepted the idea that people don’t necessarily know everything I am

Apparently old doctrine of strategic depth has been changed.
From now onward, a stable government in Afghanistan means the same level of comfort for Pakistan as strategic depth would have provided previously.

Hi, i must say really good work done, i would really appreciate if you could share some more notes of CA, I kind of feel bit haphazard when it comes to preparing for CA, So any help in this regard would be highly appreciated. You will have my email from my profile.

Thanks
Ghazna

I will share them after my papers because those are in hard form.

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We always see the point of an iceberg. I’ve always accepted the idea that people don’t necessarily know everything I am

lol, I would still be thankful for your but sadly it would be of no use to me, as i will be sitting in 2014 exams. is there any possibility you could send me via post, I will bear all the expenses..I have dropped my cell number in my profile, if possible to please contact me so i can send my address. Thanks again.

check your ID.

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We always see the point of an iceberg. I’ve always accepted the idea that people don’t necessarily know everything I am