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Old Thursday, April 02, 2009
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Default Global Warming and Massive Challenges for Pakistan

Global Warming and Massive Challenges for Pakistan

Climate Change
• Global warming
• Increased precipitation and its uneven distribution
• Melting of Glaciers and snow
• Sea level rise
• Increase in Frequency & Intensity of Extreme Weather events
Impacts
• Uncertainty in water availability
• Decrease in Crop Yields
• Newer perspectives for sources of energy
• Loss of Bio Diversity
• Increase Health risks

Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan

• Increased variability of Monsoon.
• More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers threatening IRS Flows.
• Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline.
• Increased risks of floods and drought.
• Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions.
• Food insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity.
• Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral reefs and breeding grounds of fish.
• Increase in deforestation.
• Loss of biodiversity
• Increased health risks (heat strokes, pneumonia, malaria and other vector-borne diseases).
• Risk to coastal areas.
• Risk to energy supply facilities.

Impact of Global Warming on the Glaciers of Himalaya
• Glacier is one of the key indicators of Climate change.
• The world’s average surface temperature has increased between 0.3 and 0.6 oC over the past hundred years. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, in its third assessment report, revealed that the rate and duration of the warming in the 20th century is larger than at any other time during the last on thousand years.
• The increase in the global mean temperatures by 2100 could amount anything from 1.4 to 5.8 oC, depending on the climate model and greenhouse gases emission scenario. On the Indian Subcontinent average temperatures are predicted to rise between 3.5 and 5.5 oC by 2100.
• A forecast was made that up to a quarter of the global mountain glacier mass could disappear by 2050 and up to half could be lost by 2100.
• These changes in climate will have effects ultimately on life and property of mountain people.
• Siachen and Pindari Glaciers retreating at an average rate of 31.5m and 23.5m per year.
• Rapid accumulation of water in these lakes can lead to sudden breaching o the unstable dams behind which they are formed. The resultant discharges of huge amounts of water and debris known as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods-often have catastrophic effects.
• The impact of a GLOF event in downstream is quite extensive in terms of damage to roads, bridges, trekking trials, villages, and agricultural lands as well as the loss of human live and other infrastructure.
• Most of the glacial lakes in the Himalayan region are known to have formed within the last 5 decades.
• At least between 3 to 10 years one GLOF event was recorded in Himalayan region.
• These GLOF events have resulted in loss of many lives, as well as the destruction of houses, bridges, fields, forests and reads.
• GLOFs exacerbate land degradation, increase variations in the hydrological regime, degrade biodiversity and trigger many socioeconomic externalities. Climate change will thus intensity and accelerate these impacts and further burden the human and natural systems over a wide area, far beyond the mountain.

Melting of Glaciers in Pakistan
• Glaciers in Pakistan cover 13,680 sq. km which is 13% of mountain regions of the Upper Indus Basin. Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows from UIB.
• According to a 1999 report of International Commission for Snow and Ice “Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.
• In 2005, Hewitt reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain glaciers.
• These conflicting findings make the impact of climate change on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain.

Goals and Suggestions

Global Warming is international phenomenon; it should be seen in its international perspective. No one can alienate oneself from the effects Global Warming cause. Global warming has triggered new challenges for humanity. Impairment caused by Global Warming hits indiscriminately. Rapid climate change has resulted incredible increase in numbers of natural disasters around the world. One can’t stop natural disasters to happen but there are many techniques to minimize the overall damage they cause. As a proactive and productive member of Pakistani society and a liable member of National Assembly including Member of Standing Committee on Environment, it is my duty to put my share in international and national efforts to curtail and minimize damage cause by Global warming.

There are many techniques in my opinion to tackle damages of natural disasters caused by Global Warming, such as;
• Government should establish effectual “Early Warming System”, so that the vigilant measures can be taken before natural calamity.
• If the potential GLOF could be known in advance, the GLOF hazard could be reduced by saving life and properties of local communities. Proper monitoring of potential GLOF through early warning system should be implemented to reduce the physical vulnerability in the water sheds of the Himalayan region if possible most appropriate mitigation measures should be taken.
• Government should have aggressive strategy against natural disasters, for this government officials should hold frequent consultation meetings with institutions, agencies and environment experts.
• Government should have latest technologies such as Landsat TM and ETM+, IRS 1C LISS3, CBERS and ASTER to acquire satellite images vulnerable areas.
• Development of training materials for the inventory of glaciers and glacial lakes using Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing.
• Government should provide GIS and RS software and other technical support to related institutions and agencies.
• Government should train professionals and introduce foreign scholarship programs.
• Establishment of analytical protocols and systems to identify ‘hot spot’ and to regularize GLOF hazard studies.
• Analyze and synthesis the database to locate hot spot and potential GLOF circumstances, and dissemination of the results to concerned agencies.
• Crop maturity cycles need to be studied keeping in perspective the impact of CC.
• Yields of major crops need to be understood so that productivity is not minimized due to lack of info on cc.
• Sowing date alterations required with scientists giving information to Ministry of Agriculture who is passing it to farmers.
• Change in irrigation methods is required. Changes in planting techniques is required.
• Use of new crop varieties is required.
• For water conservation storages need to be looked at on urgent basis.
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Old Thursday, April 02, 2009
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Default Ozone Layer and its Depletion

Ozone Layer and its Depletion
• Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer is an international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out the production of a number of substances believed to be responsible for ozone depletion. In 1994, the United Nations General Assembly voted to designate September 16 as "World Ozone Day", to commemorate the signing of the Montreal Protocol on that date in 1987.
• The ozone layer is a layer in Earth's atmosphere which contains relatively high concentrations of ozone (O3). This layer absorbs 93-99% of the sun's high frequency ultraviolet light, which is potentially damaging to life on earth. Over 91% of ozone in earth's atmosphere is present here. "Relatively high" means a few parts per million—much higher than the concentrations in the lower atmosphere but still small compared to the main components of the atmosphere. It is mainly located in the lower portion of the stratosphere from approximately 10 km to 50 km above Earth's surface, though the thickness varies seasonally and geographically.
• Ozone depletion describes two distinct, but related observations: a slow, steady decline of about 4 percent per decade in the total amount of ozone in Earth's stratosphere since the late 1970s; and a much larger, but seasonal, decrease in stratospheric ozone over Earth's polar regions during the same period. The latter phenomenon is commonly referred to as the ozone hole. In addition to this well-known stratospheric ozone depletion, there are also tropospheric ozone depletion events, which occur near the surface in polar regions during spring.
• Each year since the late 1970s, much of the protective layer of stratospheric ozone above Antarctica has disappeared during September, creating what is popularly known as the ozone hole. The Antarctic hole now measures about 9 million square miles, nearly the size of North America. Less dramatic, still significant, depletion of ozone levels has been recorded around the globe. With less ozone in the atmosphere, more ultraviolet radiation strikes Earth, causing more skin cancer, eye damage, and possible harm to crops.
• The largest hole ever recorded was in 2003, while the 2005 hole also reached similar levels. It is too soon to predict whether this year’s hole will exceed the record of 2003, but all indications suggest that it will come very close to it.
• The South African Weather Service monitors the atmospheric ozone using the Dobson ozone spectrophotometers. For the past few years, a decline in ozone depletion has been observed, along with a global reduction in atmospheric ozone.
• CFCs and other contributory substances are commonly referred to as ozone-depleting substances (ODS). Since the ozone layer prevents most harmful UVB wavelengths (270–315 nm) of ultraviolet light (UV light) from passing through the Earth's atmosphere, observed and projected decreases in ozone have generated worldwide concern leading to adoption of the Montreal Protocol banning the production of CFCs and halons as well as related ozone depleting chemicals such as carbon tetrachloride and trichloroethane.
Consequences of ozone layer depletion
Since the ozone layer absorbs UVB ultraviolet light from the Sun, ozone layer depletion is expected to increase surface UVB levels, which could lead to damage, including increases in skin cancer. This was the reason for the Montreal Protocol. Although decreases in stratospheric ozone are well-tied to CFCs and there are good theoretical reasons to believe that decreases in ozone will lead to increases in surface UVB, there is no direct observational evidence linking ozone depletion to higher incidence of skin cancer in human beings. This is partly due to the fact that UVA, which has also been implicated in some forms of skin cancer, is not absorbed by ozone, and it is nearly impossible to control statistics for lifestyle changes in the populace.
Increased UV
Ozone, while a minority constituent in the earth's atmosphere, is responsible for most of the absorption of UVB radiation. The amount of UVB radiation that penetrates through the ozone layer decreases exponentially with the slant-path thickness/density of the layer. Correspondingly, a decrease in atmospheric ozone is expected to give rise to significantly increased levels of UVB near the surface.
Increases in surface UVB due to the ozone hole can be partially inferred by radiative transfer model calculations, but cannot be calculated from direct measurements because of the lack of reliable historical (pre-ozone-hole) surface UV data, although more recent surface UV observation measurement programmes exist (e.g. at Lauder, New Zealand).
Because it is this same UV radiation that creates ozone in the ozone layer from O2 (regular oxygen) in the first place, a reduction in stratospheric ozone would actually tend to increase photochemical production of ozone at lower levels (in the troposphere), although the overall observed trends in total column ozone still show a decrease, largely because ozone produced lower down has a naturally shorter photochemical lifetime, so it is destroyed before the concentrations could reach a level which would compensate for the ozone reduction higher up.[citation needed]
Biological effects of increased UV and microwave radiation from a depleted ozone layer
The main public concern regarding the ozone hole has been the effects of surface UV on human health. So far, ozone depletion in most locations has been typically a few percent and, as noted above, no direct evidence of health damage is available in most latitudes. Were the high levels of depletion seen in the ozone hole ever to be common across the globe, the effects could be substantially more dramatic. As the ozone hole over Antarctica has in some instances grown so large as to reach southern parts of Australia and New Zealand, environmentalists have been concerned that the increase in surface UV could be significant.
Effects of ozone layer depletion on Humans
UVB (the higher energy UV radiation absorbed by ozone) is generally accepted to be a contributory factor to skin cancer. In addition, increased surface UV leads to increased tropospheric ozone, which is a health risk to humans.[citation needed] The increased surface UV also represents an increase in the vitamin D synthetic capacity of the sunlight.
The cancer preventive effects of vitamin D represent a possible beneficial effect of ozone depletion. In terms of health costs, the possible benefits of increased UV irradiance may outweigh the burden.

1. Basal and Squamous Cell Carcinomas -- The most common forms of skin cancer in humans, basal and squamous cell carcinomas, have been strongly linked to UVB exposure. The mechanism by which UVB induces these cancers is well understood — absorption of UVB radiation causes the pyrimidine bases in the DNA molecule to form dimers, resulting in transcription errors when the DNA replicates. These cancers are relatively mild and rarely fatal, although the treatment of squamous cell carcinoma sometimes requires extensive reconstructive surgery. By combining epidemiological data with results of animal studies, scientists have estimated that a one percent decrease in stratospheric ozone would increase the incidence of these cancers by 2%.

2. Malignant Melanoma -- Another form of skin cancer, malignant melanoma, is much less common but far more dangerous, being lethal in about 15% - 20% of the cases diagnosed. The relationship between malignant melanoma and ultraviolet exposure is not yet well understood, but it appears that both UVB and UVA are involved. Experiments on fish suggest that 90 to 95% of malignant melanomas may be due to UVA and visible radiation[18] whereas experiments on opossums suggest a larger role for UVB. Because of this uncertainty, it is difficult to estimate the impact of ozone depletion on melanoma incidence. One study showed that a 10% increase in UVB radiation was associated with a 19% increase in melanomas for men and 16% for women. A study of people in Punta Arenas, at the southern tip of Chile, showed a 56% increase in melanoma and a 46% increase in nonmelanoma skin cancer over a period of seven years, along with decreased ozone and increased UVB levels.
3. Cortical Cataracts -- Studies are suggestive of an association between ocular cortical cataracts and UV-B exposure, using crude approximations of exposure and various cataract assessment techniques. A detailed assessment of ocular exposure to UV-B was carried out in a study on Chesapeake Bay Watermen, where increases in average annual ocular exposure were associated with increasing risk of cortical opacity . In this highly exposed group of predominantly white males, the evidence linking cortical opacities to sunlight exposure was the strongest to date. However, subsequent data from a population-based study in Beaver Dam, WI suggested the risk may be confined to men. In the Beaver Dam study, the exposures among women were lower than exposures among men, and no association was seen. Moreover, there were no data linking sunlight exposure to risk of cataract in African Americans, although other eye diseases have different prevalences among the different racial groups, and cortical opacity appears to be higher in African Americans compared with whites.
4. Increased Tropospheric Ozone -- Increased surface UV leads to increased tropospheric ozone. Ground-level ozone is generally recognized to be a health risk, as ozone is toxic due to its strong oxidant properties. At this time, ozone at ground level is produced mainly by the action of UV radiation on combustion gases from vehicle exhausts.
Effects on Crops
An increase of UV radiation would be expected to affect crops. A number of economically important species of plants, such as rice, depend on cyanobacteria residing on their roots for the retention of nitrogen. Cyanobacteria are sensitive to UV light and they would be affected by its increase.
Effects on Plankton
Research has shown a widespread extinction of plankton 2 million years ago that coincided with a nearby supernova. There is a difference in the orientation and motility of planktons when excess of UV rays reach earth. Researchers speculate that the extinction was caused by a significant weakening of the ozone layer at that time when the radiation from the supernova produced nitrogen oxides that catalyzed the destruction of ozone (plankton are particularly susceptible to effects of UV light, and are vitally important to marine food webs)
Pakistan and Ozone Layer Issue
• Pakistan is making all-out efforts for the protection of Ozone Layer and has, so far, implemented 32 projects for phasing out Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS).
• World Ozone Day will pass unobserved as the Environment Protection Agency has failed to pay any regard to this day, sources within the EPA told Daily Times on Monday.
How Ozone Depletion Affects Ultraviolet Levels
• Scientists predict that ozone depletion should peak between 2000 and 2010. As world wide controls reduce the release of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-eating substances, nature will repair the ozone layer to 1979-1980 levels around 2065. Until then, we can expect higher levels of UV radiation at the Earth's surface. Higher UV levels can lead to a greater risk of too much UV radiation and bad health effects.

Effects of Ozone Layer Depletion on Life on Earth
• Absorbs Harmful UV-B Radiation
• UV-B Radiation harmful to all forms of life
• Damage the human eye (Cataract, Snow blindness)
• Cause Skin Cancer (Melanoma)
• Suppress the efficiency of the body’s immune system
• Increase the risk of disease/infection
• Reduce rates of plant growth
• Upset the balance of ecosystems & marine life
• Accelerate the degradation of plastics & other materials
Chemicals that destroy the Ozone Layer
CFC-11, CFCl3, CFC-12, CF2Cl2, CFC-113, C2F3Cl3 ,Halon 1211 CF2BrCl,CTC , CCl4, Methyl Chloroform, C2H3Cl3, HCFC22 CHF2Cl

Action taken by international Community
 1976- Issue discussed Governing council of the UNEP
 1977 – Meeting of Experts is convened –Periodic review
UNEP –WMO Committee
 1981-Intergovernmnetal negotiations ODS Phase Out
 1985- Vienna Convention (March )
 1985-Discovery of the Ozone Hole (June)
 1987 - Montreal Protocol (Sept)
– 24 countries
– 184 countries (Present)
– 2/3rd Developing
– 1/3rd Developed

Objectives and Targets of Montreal Protocol
 Phase Out Production, Consumption and use of ODS target date year 2000
 Developing countries Article 5(1)
10 year grace period (0.3Kg per capita)
 Multilateral Fund created to assist developing countries
 1992 - Pakistan joins
Impact of Montreal Protocol
 Since the Montreal Protocol came into effect, the atmospheric concentrations of the most important chlorofluorocarbons and related chlorinated hydrocarbons have either leveled off or decreased. Halon concentrations have continued to increase, as the halons presently stored in fire extinguishers are released, but their rate of increase has slowed and their abundances are expected to begin to decline by about 2020.
 Also, the concentration of the HCFCs increased drastically at least partly because for many uses CFCs (e.g. used as solvents or refrigerating agents) were substituted with HCFCs. While there have been reports of attempts by individuals to circumvent the ban, e.g. by smuggling CFCs from undeveloped to developed nations, the overall level of compliance has been high.
 In consequence, the Montreal Protocol has often been called the most successful international environmental agreement to date. In a 2001 report, NASA found the ozone hole over Antarctica had remained the same size for the previous three years. However in 2003 the ozone hole grew to its second largest size.
 Unfortunately, the hydrochlorofluorocarbons, or HCFCs, and hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, are now thought to contribute to anthropogenic global warming. On a molecule-for-molecule basis, these compounds are up to 10,000 times more potent greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide. The Montreal Protocol currently calls for a complete phase-out of HCFCs by 2030, but does not place any restriction on HFCs. Since the CFCs themselves are equally powerful as greenhouse gases, the mere substitution of HFCs for CFCs does not significantly increase the rate of anthropogenic global warming, but over time a steady increase in their use could increase the danger that human activity will change the climate
Action Taken by Pakistan
 Elements for successful implementation of Environmental Protocols
 Strategy - Country Program 1996
 Institutional Arrangement to implement Strategy - Ozone Cell 1996
 Financial & Technical Assistance
Multilateral Fund, World Bank, UNIDO, UNDP
 Regulatory Measures
Freeze on Consumption w.e.f 1st July 1999
 Information Awareness – Mass awareness
Import Authorization System
First Step July 1999
Import frozen at average consumption levels of 1995, 96 & 97 (Quota system)
CFC 1679 ODP tons

Next Step
2005 50% Reduction
2007 70% Reduction
2010 Complete Phase out …(lol nxt yr is 2010 so we’ll be celebrating a complete phase out yr . )
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