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Old Tuesday, December 29, 2009
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Smile Current Affairs Notes

Assalam o Alaikum All

This thread will have current affairs notes and will be updated regularly inshaAllah. I am a new member and preparing myself for PSC AJK. I just started my preparation with current affairs and Pakistan Affairs. (I will start another thread for Pakistan Affairs soon. These notes will not only hlep us in Current Affairs but in Essay as well, as both the papers are almost intelinked.

So let's start, your criticisim and guidelines are highly appreciated. Seniors are requested to give comments on each of my post so that I know my self where I am standing. PSC AJK aspirants are welcomed to comment

Last edited by Andrew Dufresne; Tuesday, December 29, 2009 at 12:34 PM. Reason: Plz share email in your profile only.
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  #2  
Old Tuesday, December 29, 2009
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Smile Clash of Civilizations (A study of Hungtington thoery 1993)

Clash of Civilization

Clash of Civilization theory by Samuel Hungtingon
Fakayama in 1989, wrote a thesis “End of History” saying that there is no rivalry of ideology of liberal democracy.
Later on Mr. Samuel Hungtington 1993, wrote “Clash of Civilization” and further elaborated it in his book “The Clash of Civilization and The Remarking fo World Order” in 1996
According to Samual Hungtington “the fundamental clash will be between Western & Sinic-Islamic civilization”. Sinic and Islamic Civilization are great threat to Western Civilization as they oppose to west’s universal democratization. The clash between west and Islam going on from 1300 years

Journey of Civilization
He said after falling down treaty of Westphalia in 1648, conflict used to occur between princes till 1900. After French Revolution it shifted to Nations of States. After First World War and Russian revolution 1917, conflict yielded to Conflict of Ideology. He argued local politics has been changed with ethnic politics, global with Politics of Civilization and Rivalry of superpowers in to Clash of Civilization.

Different Civilizations according to Samuel
He said civilization is a way of life and Religion is the most important objective element defines civilization. He divided civilization into 7 categories; Islam, Japanese, Sinic, Hindu, African, Latin America and West. (Some don’t agree to call Japanese and African a civilization)
He argued that widespread of western ideology of “Universal Democracy” will antagonize with other civilizations. The power is shifting to other civilizations, civilizations with common culture come together and that is why Sinic-Islam civilization is a threat for west. He said that Sinic civilization is flourishing due to its economic development; Islam and Sinic have common interests in terms of “weapon proliferation, human rights and democracy”
He said Russia, Japan and India are “Swing Civilization” which can go to either side as Russia can strong its relations with Iran, while China with Pakistan and Iran.
He said Modernization is taking place at individual and society level, resurgence to religion and culture.

Major Factors of West-Islam Civilization Clash
Unemployment due to increase in population, Islamic resurgence, west’s ideology of universal democracy, demise of SU removed common enemy of West and Islam. He said West-Islam conflict will be bloodies which later on proven as 9/11, Iraq and Afghanistan War.

Flaws in the Theory in context of current situation
1. He discusses “Sinic Islam Civilization quoting example of Stallin and his allies and Hitler”, but that was ideological period which is over now.
2. Confusion about world power blocs as now Islamic world is not Islamic power in real sense
3. He says “world is becoming modernized due to relations with each other” but why this was not done in 11th century when Islam and west enjoyed a good relationship.
4. He states that “there is no core state in Islamic world”, then how come Islamic world can go against west as a whole even they do not have leadership.
5. He said “people sharing same culture will come together” but most of the Islamic countries are engaged in their internal matters and civil wars, how they can get together?
6. He says “religion as a most important factor for civilization” but this was not the case in secession of Bangladesh from Pakistan
7. Amarty Sen wrote “A world is not neatly divided” quoting example of anti-globalization protesters which are from whole world.

(Source: World Times Magazine December 2009)
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  #3  
Old Wednesday, December 30, 2009
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Smile Energy Crises in Pakistan

This topic will also be helpfull in English Essay

Energy Crises in Pakistan

• Energy is important for every country to be alive. Energy consumption per capita is a key indicator of the quality of work life of the citizens
• In Pakistan energy gap has increased from 3500 MW in 2008 to 5,000 MW I October 2009
• Per capita energy consumption in Pakistan is only 15 MBTU as compared to 54 in China, 104 in Malaysia and 106 in Iran.
• Our trade deficit is roughly about 9.34 % of GDP in 2007-08 fiscal year, shortfall of electricity is one of the main factors
• Our Oil imports increased by 56 % and food imports increased by 46 % in fiscal 2008
• In this current situation with the demand increasing day by day, Pakistan cannot increase its dependence on furnace oil.

Causes of Energy Crises

No major project undertaken by previous government: No big project was launched in Musharaff regime. Generation capacity also declined. As installed generation capacity had increased by 53 % in 1994 to 1999. (11320 MW to 17400MW) but it increased only 12 % in 1999 to 2007, 19420 MW. Even this increase was due to completion of Ghazi Brotha project which was started before Musharaff in 1990s.
Failure to increase the generating capacity: Hydel electricity generation goes down by 60 % in winter naturally but the generation from thermal plants has also declined by 4000 MW which generated 5000 MW shortfall.
Problem of Circular Debt: in 2007 government did not have money to pay the subsidy amount to the electricity companies due to its debts. This problem became more serious when oil prices jumped up from $100 to $147 per barrel in international market.
Losses in Transmission and Distribution: In Pakistan the losses are over 20 % compared to 8 to 10% in other countries.
Wastage of Energy: Industry sector uses 30 % of electricity while they can generate solar energy like China. Transport sector uses 28 % of total energy due to its poorly tuned engines.
Domestic and Household consumption: This consumption is more then estimated as well. Now this sector uses 45 % of total electricity

Effects of Energy Crises

• Less exports due to shortfall
• Unemployment
• Many industries closed
• In 19500 MW, about 60 % are from imported oil or domestic natural gases. While only 3o % is generated by thermal plants. This reduces our foreign reserves

Solutions

Resolving the Circular Debt Problem: Any payable amount to oil companies, Wapda, pepco or any other company should be paid on priority basis so that they can work on full efficiency.
Building smaller Power Plants: New projects have been identified but not implemented. Some of them are a) addition of rental power plants (950 MW), b) new IPP thermal project (375 MW), c) Rehablitation of WAPDA power plants (2oo MW), d) loss reduction (80 MW). Capital cost of project should also be considered. Capital cost of 1500 MW of new plant considered to be $3 billion. On completion more electricity at price of 12 to 14 Rs per unit can be added but will not be affordable.
New Gas Power Plants: new plants should be installed and existing should be updated. As they produce only 70 % of power as new one do.
Update the system of transmission and Distribution
Maga Dams: In coming 5 years hydel-thermal electricity generating capacity should be 60:40 to tackle the problem on the long run. Kalabagh dam controversy makes the situation more worse. Some non controversial projects are being delayed as well like Neelum Jehlum (969 MW), Tarbela extension (960), Suki Kinara (840), Khan dabbar (130), Allai (126) and Jinnah Hydro (96 MW).
Autonomy to WAPDA to undertake new projects
Exploit the coal reserves: Thar has one of the largest deposits of coal in the world. To use this will reduce dependence on imported energy. China has offered project in 2005 to generate 3000 MW at 5.8 % but it could not move forward as they were offered only 5.3 %
Regional Gas and Oil Pipelines: Iran-Pakistan-India gas line, Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan gas pipeline can be considered. It will not only reduce the cost of energy but attract foreign financing.
Alternative sources of energy: wind power, solar energy, bio fuel can be used as alternative energy sources.

(1 MBTU mean 1 Million British Thermal Unit, 3134 MBPTU = 1 Kilowatt hour)
(Source: World Times Magazine December 2009)
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Old Thursday, December 31, 2009
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Smile Waziristan Operation Challenges and Opportunities (Important Notes)

Waziristan Challenges and Opportunities (Important Points)By Lt. Col. (Rtd) Muhammad Shahbaz


BACKGROUND

• In 1936, a wazir young man abducted a girl and fled to Waziristan. British government started its operation to establish their write in the area. Mr. Faqir started Jihad against them

• In 1937, British took over the area and Faqir run away to Afghanistan. Birith Army was withdrawn to fight in Burma, Africa, Europe. So there was peace in 1941-1945.

• A committee headed by Gen. Franceis Tuker was made to analyse whether british should stay in the area or withdraw it forces. In early 1947 Army was withdrawn on the recommendation of the committee.

WAZIRISTAN UNDER PAKISTAN RULE

• No new social contract was signed by the new government of the Pakistan nor was the area given a status of province. Tribal had expressed their views to join Pakistan through referendum but Pakistan lost the opportunity to give them a status of province.

• Mr. Faqir started Jihad against Pakistani government on the pretext of Pakhtunistan in 1949. Two army brigades entered the area and made Mr. Faqir run away to Afghanistan again.

• In early 50s, Once again army was withdrawn from the area leaving that a safe heaven for the criminal from all over Pakistan.

• During Zia era when so called Jihad started (1979-1989), people are given trainings in Waziristan and sent to Afghanistan for Jihad.

• After 9/11 those trained people run away from Afghanistan and made their hidouts in Waziristan. Those people include foreigners fighting Jihad in Afghanistan as well. Then government (Musharaff) did not pay its attention to this severe problem and let these people to settle down in the area. These people started killing Maliks and getting power in the region.

• The local government system further weakened the situation.
It is said that RAW/CIA is involved in tribal areas by Indian consulates in Afghanistan. Resent vacation of NATO forces along Durand line is out of sense. It seems that they want Pakistan

• Pakistan to be busy in western border, so that India becomes free to contain China

• US can withdrew from Afghanistan and keep tow Muslims countries fighting each other as was done in case of Cambodia and Iraq

WHAT SHOULD PAKISTAN DO?

The situation is worsening then ever. Pakistan needs to take some quick steps to get the loyalty of tribal. Tribal are loyal people but terrorists are blackmailing them. They are fed up with terrorists. Need of the hour is to try to win over the local tribes. Involve people in decision making and empowering them

• All stakeholders meeting should be held by PM to formulate a national strategy

• Political activities should be started in FATA

• Committee to be formed to write a new social contract for FATA

• Election should be held like rest of country

• Self respect of common man should be restored

• Assistance to IDPs should be with respect and honour, their dignity, ethics and norms must be observed

• All political parties should establish their offices in FATA.

• Development works should be started on priority basis

(Source: World Times Magazine December 2009)
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Old Thursday, December 31, 2009
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Smile Global Warming (Important Points)

GLOBAL WARMING (Important Points)

INTRODUCTION

• Global warming is the expected gradual, slow warming of the lower layer of earth's lower atmosphere by greenhouse gases, mostly Carbon Dioxide and lesser by Methane. These gases trap infra red radiations which otherwise, keep the earth cool.

• In 2003, the concentration of carbon dioxide was 5o % more then what was in the start of industrial revolution in late 90s.

• UN formed a group of scientists (International Panel on Climate Change) to work on climate

• Climate Model Projection says that the globally surface temperature will increase by 1.1 to 6.4 Centigrade in 21st century.

MAJOR CAUSES

Greenhouse gases (Carbon dioxide and Methane) mostly come from fuel used in cars, factories and electricity production. Less forests are also a cause

Solar Energy: over the last 4 billion years energy output by sun is increasing and it will continue to increase. Unless the sun will be red giant and I think that would be the last day of the earth

Orbital Variation: Slight variation in earth’s orbit also effect the climate as with it amount of sunlight changes

Volcanism: Volcanism is a process of conveying material from the mantle of the earth. This also makes the earth more and more warmer

Human Influence: Human activity is very likely the cause of rapid increase in temperature. Human being uses cars, electricity, cutting forests and many other activities which produce carbon dioxide.

EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING

• Global temperature will rise 1.1 to 6.4 centigrade in 21st century

• Sea level is projected to rise between 7 to 23 inches

• If recent melting continues the sea level can further rise 4 to 8 inches (Extreme threat for Maldeves)

• Hot extremes, heat waves and heavy rain would be possibilities (Extreme threat for Nepal)

• More proliferation of insect pests which in turn will spread more diseases

• Al Gore underlined the possibility of collapse of major ice sheet in Greenland which would result in 20 feet raise in sea level and more than 100 million of refugees

GLOBAL WARMING MOOTS

Earth Summit 1992: held by UN in 1992, 172 countries participated. Discussed the climate change and addressed the issues 1) systematic scrutiny of patterns of production, 2) alternative source of energy to replace fossil fuel, 3) reliance on public transport,
An achievement of Earth Summit 1992 came in terms of KYOTO Protocol 1997

KYOTO Protocol 1997: under this protocol 37 industrialized countries (called Annex I countries) committed themselves to reduce four greenhouse gases. They committed to reduce their collective emission to 5.2 % to the 1990 level. Other countries showed their general commitment

Bali Summit 2007: Held in Bali Indonesia in 2007. EU proposed “well below half” of the 2000 level by 2050 for developing countries and 20 to 40 % emission below 1990 level by 2020 for developed countries. America opposed the proposal

Copenhagen Summit 2009: UN arranged global summit in Copenhagen in December 2009 but failed to come up with a visible solution. (More details of this Summit will be uploaded soon)

SUGGESTIONS TO TACKLE GLOBAL WARMING

Biofuel: Biofuel is as old as the cars itself. Due to cheap oil it was ignored but now with the increase in oil prices it is the best solution for energy

Cell Charge: Soon we well have a type of cells which will turn chemical energy into electricity and it will use hydrogen for generating electricity

Geothermal Energy: Geothermal energy has been used for thousands of years in some countries for cooking. This energy is found in rocks beneath earth’s crust.

Solar Energy: every hour sun beams on the earth, have more than enough energy for a year. So solar energy is another option for reduction of greenhouse gases

Latest Technology: Latest and clean technology can be used for emission of carbon dioxide. New model cars with good mileage, can be introduced for example.

Al Gore, Nobel Peace Prize winner says “ Each one of us is a cause of global warming, each one of us can make choices to change that with the things we buy, the electricity we use, the cars we drive; we can make choices to bring our individual carbon emission to zero”

(Source: World Times Magazine December 2009)
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Old Friday, January 01, 2010
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Smile Pakistan 2009: Year of Terrorism

2009: Year of Terrorism



Pakistan is at war, and this time the war is not at its borders with an enemy country. This war is with its own people and within its own territory. Some call it America’s war whereas the government and the army call it ‘Pakistan’s own war’.

This war has plagued Pakistan's provinces of North West Frontier Province (NWFP), Balochistan, and Punjab with violence between militants and government security forces as well as terrorist activities against innocent civilians. Though, the nature of these violent incidents and terrorist attacks seem similar all over the country, the causes of the conflicts vary in different regions.

In NWFP, the worst hit province in terms of terrorism, Operation Rah-e-Rast against pro-Taliban groups displaced hundreds of thousands of people in April and May 2009. The operation wrapped up on July 7, 2009 with 1,600 extremists killed and 158 soldiers martyred. During the operation, around 300,000 people of Swat took refuge in camps or with relatives.

Not only displacement, residents of the province also bear the brunt of the terrorist attacks in the country. Around 87 such incidents took place in the province, including suicide attacks, hand grenade attacks, rocket and mortar attacks and blasts with remote control devices. At least 824 people, including 228 security officials of different organizations and grades, were killed in attacks during the year.

Attack on shrine of a 17th century Sufi poet - Rehman Baba - in the Akhund Baba graveyard of Peshawar to discourage ‘shrine culture’ shocked the nation. A letter delivered to the management of the mausoleum three days before the attack had warned against its promotion of ‘shrine culture’.

In Balochistan, Pakistan's largest and poorest province, tribal militants are engaged in a long-running, low-level insurgency to gain greater control of the region's natural resources and political power. Analysts say Afghan Taliban groups are also using Baluchistan as a base. Most of the 37 terrorist acts reported from the province were incidents of sectarian violence. Around 66 people, including 11 security officials, were killed in the terrorist attacks. Those killed include 3 academicians, 1 cardiologist, Balochistan Chief Mines Inspector, Balochistan Education Minister, Vice President of Jamhoori Watan Party, Chairman of Hazara Democratic Party, leader of Fiqah Jafria, and leader of Jammat Ahl-e-Sunnat Wal Jamaat Noorani.

Some of the militant violence has spilled into other parts of Pakistan, with suicide and armed attacks on troops and the country's main cities.

In Punjab, 315 people were killed in 20 terrorist attacks. Those killed include 62 security officials. The worst terrorist incidents were suicide attacks at Moon Market, Lahore and Paradeline mosque, Rawalpindi. More than 85 people were killed in the two attacks.

Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, didn’t remain safe from the terror wave and 28 people were killed in 10 terrorist attacks. Some of the important incidents include suicide attack at UN World Food Program (WFP) office and suicide attack at International Islamic University, Islamabad.

Violence erupted in Sindh after suicide attack on Ashura procession at M A Jinnah Road, Karachi on December 28... just 3 days before the new year. The province remained relatively safe during the year. At least 53 people were killed in 17 terrorist activities. Majority of these incidents were target killings or shooting incidents, which apparently had sectarian motives behind them.

Following is a time line of major terrorist attacks in all four provinces of the country.

Terrorist Attacks in NWFP

• January 4: A suicide bomber was killed while two people sustained injuries near a check-post in Officers’ Colony in Bannu. The suicide bomber blew himself up in an attempt to target a check-post but could not succeed as the bomb exploded before he could reach his target.

• January 4: Ten persons, including 4 policemen, were killed and 27 others injured in two bomb blasts near the Polytechnic College in Dera Ismail Khan.

• January 17: In the first incident of its kind in Peshawar, religious scholar Pir Hafiz Rafeeullah, who was kidnapped on January 16, was reportedly slaughtered and his decapitated body was found in the Matani area of the capital on the morning of January 17.

• January 20: Four policemen and 4 civilians were injured when a police patrol van was hit by a roadside bomb on Ring Road in the Hazarkhwani area of Peshawar.

• January 23: Two SF personnel were killed in a car suicide attack near Mingora town in the Swat District of NWFP.

• January 26: At least 5 people have been killed and several wounded in a bomb blast in Dera Ismail Khan. The bomb, attached to a bicycle, went off on a busy main road.

• February 3: One man was killed and 18 others injured in a hand grenade attack on a Sunni mosque at Mohallah Joginwala in Dera Ismail Khan district.

• February 5: A suicide attacker detonated an explosive-laden car near a police station in the Mingora town of Swat District, injuring a dozen officers and destroying part of the building.

• February 9: At least 18 FC personnel were injured in amini-truck suicide attack on the Baran Pul check-post of the Frontier Reserve Police (FRP) in the jurisdiction of Bakkakhel police station in Bannu District.

• February 11: Alamzeb Khan, a Member of Provincial Assembly from the ruling Awami National Party (ANP), was killed and 7 others were injured in a remote-controlled bomb blast in Momin Town in Peshawar.

• February 17: Five people were killed and 17 injured in a car bomb blast outside the Hujra (male guest house) of the union council chief in Bazidkhel village of Peshawar.

• February 20: At least 32 persons were killed and 145 others injured when a suicide bomber exploded himself in the funeral procession of a slain employee of the Tehsil Municipal Administration near the busy Shubra Square in Dera Ismail Khan.

• February 23: A police guard was killed when he flung himself onto a suicide bomber to prevent him from entering a compound in Bannu. The attacker was trying to enter the compound, where judges and senior police officials live and work, when the guard intercepted him. Two other police guards were wounded in the attack.

• March 5: One person was killed and 19 others sustained injuries when a hand-grenade hurled by unidentified miscreants at worshippers exploded in Ameer Hamza mosque in Dera Ismail Khan.

• March 5: Suspected Taliban militants blew an ancient shrine of a 17th century Sufi poet - Rehman Baba - in the Akhund Baba graveyard of Peshawar. A letter delivered three days before the attack to the management of the mausoleum had warned against its promotion of ‘shrine culture’.

• March 7: Eight persons, including five policemen, two Frontier Corps personnel and a civilian, were killed in a remote-controlled car bombing at Mashugagr village in Peshawar. Some villagers also sustained minor injuries.

• March 11: The NWFP Senior Minister and Awami National Party leader Bashir Ahmad Bilour survived an assassination attempt that left six persons, including two suspected suicide attackers, dead in Namak Mandi in Peshawar. Four persons, including a young girl, were wounded in the firing, grenade attack and suicide blast.

• March 18: Five people including three policemen were killed and four injured when over 100 unidentified armed men attacked a police vehicle at the entrance of the University of Malakand at Chakdara in Lower Dir District.

• March 30: Seven persons, including 5 Army soldiers, were killed and 9 others sustained injuries when a suicide bomber rammed his explosive-laden car into a military convoy near a filling station on the Bannu-Miranshah Road.

• April 5: Police found bullet-riddled bodies of four local aid workers, including three women, in Shinkiari area of Mansehra District.

April 15: At least 18 persons, including nine policemen, were killed and five others injured when a suicide bomber rammed an explosives-laden vehicle into the Harichand Police Post in Charsadda District.

• April 18: At least 27 SF personnel were killed and 55 others injured in a suicide attack on a security check post in the Doaba area of Hangu District.

• April 26: 12 children were killed after playing with a bomb that resembled a football. The children died after the toy-like-bomb exploded in Lower Dir District.

• May 1: The ISPR spokesman Major General Athar Abbas said two Frontier Corps personnel were killed when a suicide bomber blew up a booby-trapped house in the Buner District.

• May 4: A suicide car bomber killed 4 SF personnel and wounded 8 persons in the outskirts of Peshawar.

• May 5: Seven people, including 2 children and a Frontier Corps soldier, were killed and 48 others sustained injuries when an explosives-laden car rammed into a pick-up near a check-post on the Bara road near Peshawar.

• May 11: At least 10 people died and 27 were injured as a suicide bomber blew up his explosives-laden vehicle near a Frontier Corps check post in the outskirts of Darra Adam Khel.

• May 16: Two handicapped children and 2 of their teachers were among 11 people killed in a car bomb blast at congested City Circular Road, Peshawar. At least 33 people were injured.

• May 16: Six people, including two women and two children, sustained minor injuries when a low-intensity explosive device went off in a busy market in Peshawar.

• May 22: At least 10 people were killed and 65 others were injured when a powerful car bomb exploded near the Tasveer Mahal Cinema hall in the busy Kabuli Chowk area.

• May 28: Three policemen were killed and 9 others injured in a suicide attack on a police vehicle at the Sra Khawra security post on the Kohat road in the jurisdiction of Matani Police station on the outskirts of Peshawar.

• May 28:
A policeman and 2 passers-by were killed and 13 people wounded when a suicide attacker exploded an auto-rickshaw near a police checkpoint in Dera Ismail Khan.

• June 5: A suicide bomber killed 49 worshippers, including 12 children, at a mosque in a remote village of the Dir Upper District. Dozens more were injured in the blast just before Friday congregation in the Hayagay Sharqi village.

• June 7: One non-commissioned officer was killed and five others were injured in an attack on security forces' convoy transporting TNSM deputy chief Maulana Alam and spokesman Amir Izaat to Peshawar, the NWFP capital. Both leaders of banned outfits were also killed in the attack.

• June 9: A massive truck suicide attack at the five-star Pearl Continental hotel in Peshawar killed 17 persons and injured 60 others.

• June 11: A man was killed and 13 others, including 9 policemen, sustained injuries in a hand grenade-cum-suicide attack on a police party in the Lateefabad area on Ring Road in Peshawar.

• June 11: NWFP Minister for Prisons Mian Nisar Gul Kakakhel was seriously injured and his two guards were killed when his convoy was ambushed by suspected militants in Darra Adam Khel.

• June 12: Five worshippers were killed and 105 others sustained injuries when a suicide bomber rammed his explosives-laden van into a mosque during the Friday prayers in the Cantonment area of Nowshera. Two soldiers were among the four persons killed on the spot while most of the 105 wounded were reportedly Army personnel.

• June 14: Nine people were killed and over 40 injured when a powerful explosion ripped through a busy market in Dera Ismail Khan.

• June 22: Two policemen were killed and 7 people, including 3 policemen, sustained injuries when a suicide bomber rammed his explosive-laden vehicle into the Thakot Police check-post in Battagram District.

• June 24: Three policemen, including an officer, were killed when some miscreants fired rockets and mortar shells at the Arbab Tapu check-post in the jurisdiction of Matani Police Station.

• July 2: Two policemen were killed and an equal number of people sustained injuries when Taliban targeted a police vehicle with a remote-controlled device in Peshawar.

• July 9: A Peshawar Electric Supply Company (PESCO) employee was killed and three injured when Taliban militants blew up an electricity pylon using a remote-controlled device in Merra Suraizai Payan village on the outskirts of the provincial capital Peshawar.

• July 15: Two people, including an official of the UNHCR, were killed and another injured when suspected Taliban militants attempted to abduct UN officials at the Katcha Ghari Refugee Camp in Nasir Bagh.

• July 15: Two children were injured in a rocket attack. Taliban militants fired three rockets from an unidentified location into the city at about 12:30pm, and one of them hit a house in Sethi Town, injuring a 13-year-old girl and a 15-year-old boy.

• July 20: Suspected militants of the Mangal Bagh group killed four policemen in an ambush on the outskirts of Peshawar.

• August 2: In the southern Mashogagar village, terrorists killed a prayer leader Qari Roohul Amin of Sulemankhel, who had been abducted on June 29, and placed three kilograms of explosives with his body to trigger it with a remote control device in the hope that policemen would come close to it. Officials of the bomb disposal squad, however, defused the explosives without any damage.

• August 2: Militants shot dead two policemen in Paharipura. A squad of the Paharipura Police Station was ambushed by unknown gunmen in Islamabad town of Peshawar around 2:30 am while patrolling the streets.

• August 10: Militants fired rockets at a paramilitary checkpoint in Peshawar, killing two civilians. The pre-dawn rocket attack targeted a Frontier Corps base in the city's Hayatabad neighborhood.

• August 16: A soldier was killed and three others sustained injuries in a suicide attack near a SFs checkpoint in the Swat District.

• August 17: Seven people were killed and eight others injured when a bomb placed in a vehicle exploded at a filling station in the Shabqadar area in Charsadda.

• August 18: Suspected militants beheaded a man kidnapped from the Matani area on August 12. Kabir Hussain, who had come from the US and was kidnapped on his way from Peshawar airport to his village Dabori in Kohat District.

• August 22: Two persons were killed and three others injured in a suicide blast in Hayatabad area. The blast occurred in sector N-I Phase IV of the area near the Hayatabad Medical Complex (HMC).

• August 23: Three persons were killed and 15 others sustained injuries in a powerful suicide blast close to the house of the slain AI spokesman, Mobin Afridi, in the Momin Town area of Peshawar

• August 30: At least 16 police recruits were killed and 11 others sustained injuries after a suicide bomber detonated explosives strapped to his body at the Mingora Police Station.

• September 4: Suspected militants shot dead two FC troopers in Nasir Bagh suburbs of Peshawar early in the morning while they were patrolling the area.

• September 12: Two policemen were injured in a suicide blast near Doaba Police Station in the Hangu District.

• September 18: At least 33 people were killed and more than 50 injured in a suicide car blast in Kohat District.

• September 26: Two suicide attackers separately rammed their explosives-laden vehicles into a Police station in Bannu and a military-owned commercial bank in Peshawar cantonment area, killing at least 27 people and injuring around another 200.

• September 28: At least four persons, including a prominent anti-Taliban cleric, were killed when a suicide bomber rammed his explosives-laden vehicle into a car at Bannu.

• October 6:
A woman, a minor girl and a boy sustained injuries when a rocket hit a house in Miskeenabad under the jurisdiction of Bhanamari Police Station, Peshawar at around 2 am.

• October 9: At least 56 persons, including a woman and seven children, were killed and 112 others were injured when a suicide attacker detonated his explosives-laden car at the crowded Soekarno Chowk in Khyber Bazaar in Peshawar.

• October 12: At least 47 persons, including 9 security officials, were killed and 45 others were injured in a suicide attack on a military convoy in the Alpuri area of Shangla District, NWFP.

• October 15: At least 11 persons, including 3 policemen, were killed and 22 others sustained injuries when a suicide bomber rammed an explosives-laden vehicle into the building of the Saddar Police Station located in the military area of Kohat.

• October 15: An eight-year-old boy, identified as Hamza, was killed and 12 persons, including two policemen, were wounded when a powerful bomb exploded in a three-storey building in the officers’ colony of provincial capital Peshawar.

• October 16: At least 12 persons, including three policemen, were killed and 24 others sustained injuries after a suicide bomber rammed his explosives-laden vehicle into the CIA’s Special Investigation Unit in Peshawar.

• October 23: At least 15 people were injured in a bombing outside a restaurant in the Hayatabad area. The bomb was planted in a car.

• October 28: A remote-controlled car bomb killed 117 people – including women and children – and injured around 200 others at the Meena Bazaar in Peshawar.

• November 8: At least 18 people, including a local councillor heading an anti-Taliban Lashkar (militia), were killed and 44 others injured when a suicide bomber blew him up in a cattle market at Adezai village, 25 km south of the capital city of Peshawar.

• November 9: Three persons, including a policeman, were killed and 5 others sustained injuries when a suicide bomber riding an auto-rickshaw blew himself up at a police barricade on the Ring Road in the Latifabad area of Peshawar

• November 10: Suicide car bomb blast at Farooq-e-Azam Chowk, Charsadda. Thirty two people were killed and 80 were injured in the incident.

• November 12: Syed Abul Hassan Jaffry, media manager of the Iranian consulate in Peshawar, was shot dead near his home in Gulbarg. Jaffry was going to his office when he was shot at point-blank range as he turned his car towards the Swati Phatak.

• November 13: At least 17 people, including 10 military personnel, were killed and 60 injured when a suicide bomber on an explosive-laden Shehzore truck detonated the explosive material in front of the regional headquarters of the ISI in Peshawar

• November 13: Twelve people, including 5 security officials, were killed and 26 injured in a suicide attack at a Police Station in the Bannu town of Bannu District.

• November 14: At least 12 persons, including a policeman and a three-year-old child, were killed and another 35 injured when a suicide bomber detonated his explosives-laden vehicle at police check post in Pashta Kharra Chowk, Peshawar.

• November 16: Four persons were killed and more than 30 others sustained injuries in a suicide car bombing which targeted the Badhber Police Station on the Kohat Road near Peshawar.

• November 19: At least 20 people, including three policemen, were killed and 50 others injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up at the main gate of the Judicial Complex on Khyber Road in Peshawar.

• November 19: A bomb attack on the police van ripped through the vehicle, killing two policemen on the spot and wounding five civilians on the outskirts of Peshawar.

• November 25: The cleaner of an oil tanker, used for NATO forces in Afghanistan, was killed and its driver injured when unidentified gunmen attacked the vehicle on the Ring Road near Tor Baba.

• November 26: A remote-controlled bomb blast injured three people, including two policemen and a young girl, and destroyed an electricity pylon in Bashirabad area.

• November 30: Two police officials were injured when unidentified armed men attacked their vehicle on the Indus Highway, police said.

• December 1: A leading politician, Shamsher Ali Khan, was reportedly killed when a suicide bomber targeted a guest house where he was present. Another 8 people, including his brother, were injured in this attack.

• December 3: A police official was injured in an explosion at a police check-post in the Ragai area of capital Peshawar.

• December 5: At least four people, including a women, were killed and 12 people were injured in a car bomb explosion at United Plaza, Tehkal Market, University Road, Peshawar.

• December 7: At least 12 people, including 2 policemen, were killed and 50 were injured in a suicide attack outside a court in Peshawar.

• December 22: A suicide bomber blew himself at the gate of the Peshawar Press Club, killing 3 persons including a policeman, and injuring 17 others.

December 24: At least 5 people, including a policeman, were killed and 24 were injured in a suicide attack near State Life Building, Saddar, Mall Road, Peshawar.

Terrorist attack in Balochistan


• January 4: Armed men killed a trooper of the Balochistan Constabulary, identified as Abdul Hakeem, in the Shallkot area of Quetta. The attack appeared to be a targeted killing.

• January 5: Unidentified assailants killed two Shias on Kirani Road, Quetta, despite tight security arrangements due to Muharram.

• January 10: Unidentified men killed a central leader of the Fiqah Jafferia along with his guard in Sibi District.

• January 14: Unidentified assailants killed four policemen, including a DSP in a shootout on Siryab Road. Three of the murdered policemen belonged to Hazara community and were Shia.

• January 26: Hussain Ali Yousafi, chairman of the Hazara Democratic Party, was shot dead by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi in the southwestern city of Quetta.

• February 2: John Solecki, head of the UN High Commission for Refugees office in Quetta, was kidnapped and his driver was killed after his vehicle was ambushed in Quetta.

• February 2: Unidentified gunmen killed a Shia trader in Quetta in an attack apparently linked to the recent cycle of sectarian killings in the provincial capital.

• February 18: In a suspected sectarian incident, unidentified men killed the Jamaat Ahl-e-Sunnat Wal Jamaat-Noorani provincial leader Maulana Iftikhar Ahmed Habibi in Quetta.

• February 24: A Shia trader and three of his sons were shot dead in an apparent sectarian attack on Sariab Road, Quetta.

• March 1: In an apparent act of sectarian violence in Quetta, unidentified men murdered a man and his son, both from the Shia sect. The motorcycle borne attackers opened fire on the victims at their shop on Quetta’s Double Road.

• March 2: Six people were killed and 12 others, mostly students, sustained injuries in a suicide attack on a madrassa (seminary) in Kili Karbala in the Pishin District. The Jamaat-Ulema-i-Islam (Fazlur Rehman faction JUI-F) provincial chief Maulana Muhammad Khan Shirani, the Balochistan Assembly Deputy Speaker Syed Matiullah Agha and provincial ministers belonging to the party were attending a ceremony at the seminary when a 15-year-old boy blew himself up in front of the stage. However, all the JUI-F leadership escaped unhurt.

• March 3: Five Shias were killed in Quetta when unidentified assailants attacked members of a family in the city.

• March 9: Unidentified men on a motorbike killed two Shias in an apparent sectarian attack in Quetta. The victims were shot in their car on Kirani road, on the outskirts of the Balochistan capital.

• April 22: Unidentified militants threw a hand grenade at policemen deployed on the outskirts of Quetta, injuring four policemen and a passerby. Police personnel were on duty in the Hazar Ganji area.

• May 3: Unidentified assailants shot dead two policemen on the Arbab Karam Khan Road.

• May 28: At least five persons, including a woman, were killed when unidentified attackers opened indiscriminate fire on a customer service centre on Kalat Street, Jail Road, Quetta.

• June 22: Three Shias, including a union council chief, were killed in Quetta by unidentified men in a suspected sectarian incident. Unidentified armed men reportedly opened fire on Talib Agha, Union Council 47 chief in Quetta, when he was on his way home along with his driver and security guard.

• June 23: The principal of the Government Commerce College was shot dead by two motorcycle borne assailants in a suspected sectarian incident in Quetta.

• July 23: Haji Mohammad Mohsin, principal of the Government High School in Sariab Mills, was going to school when armed men riding a motorcycle opened fire on him, killing him on the spot.

• July 24:Unidentified assailants shot dead a Professor of the Government Degree College on the Sariab Road.

• July 29: A woman was killed and six persons, including two SF personnel, were injured in a grenade attack on a check-post of the Frontier Corps (FC) in the Sairab Road area.

• June 30: Four people were killed and 11 wounded when a bomber targeted a hotel in Kalat in the first-ever suicide attack in Balochistan. The attack in Kalat District appeared to be aimed at disrupting supplies to NATO forces in Afghanistan.

• July 31: Two SF personnel were killed while three others sustained injuries when unidentified miscreants lobbed a hand grenade at a security vehicle on the Spiny Road area.

• August 12: Two persons were killed and six others sustained injuries in a bomb blast and firing incident in the Irrigation Colony area on Sariab Road, Quetta.

August 17: Cardiologist Dr Abid Iqbal Zaidi was shot dead by unidentified armed men on the Fatima Jinnah Road.

• August 17: A man and his two sons were shot dead by unidentified armed men on Sirki Road.

• September 5: Unidentified militants hurled two hand grenades on the City Police Station building, injuring 21 persons including six policemen.

• September 8: Suspected Taliban militants set ablaze eight oil tankers near the Western Bypass, when the tankers were carrying fuel for NATO forces in Afghanistan.

• October 8: Three police officials were injured in a bomb blast at the Spiny Road. The blast took place near a police van which was on a routine patrol on the road.

• October 12: Unidentified armed men killed the Balochistan Chief Mines Inspector on Sariab Road in Quetta. Ashraf Ali was a member of the Shia Hazara community.

• October 13: In another incident of target-killing, the Jamhoori Watan Party Vice-President, Muhammad Aslam Mirza, and his driver were shot dead by unidentified armed men in the Shalkot area.

• October 15: Two persons, including a Frontier Corps trooper, were killed and five others injured in terrorist attacks in Quetta

• October 23: Unidentified gunmen killed an official of the intelligence Bureau (IB), Tanveer Raza, while he was walking on Zargoon Road near the office of the Railways divisional superintendent.

• October 25: Unidentified gunmen killed the Balochistan Education Minister Shafiq Ahmed Khan, a member of the Pakistan People’s Party, outside his residence on Thogai Road, while his brother’s father-in-law, Hydayat Jaffar, was injured in the same attack.

• November 7: 13 people, including two children and a trooper, were injured when a hand grenade exploded at a Frontier Corps checkpost near Meezan Chowk.

• November 17: DIG Police (Operations) Shahid Nizam Durrani and his driver were injured in a bomb blast on Spiny Road. Eight persons, mainly policemen, were injured in the blast.

• November 23: Two policemen were shot dead in Quetta in what appeared to be a case of target killing. The policemen, Sardar Muhammad Samalani and Syed Amir Muhammad Khilji, were on routine patrol on Qambrani Road when unidentified assailants opened fire at them, police said.

December 7: A car bomb blast injured nine persons and damaged several vehicles and shops at the main gate of the Junior Assistant Colony in the Chaman Housing Society, Quetta.

• December 8: The Saryab station house officer and two other policemen were injured in a hand-grenade attack on a police convoy on the Sabzal Road in Quetta of Balochistan.

Terrorist Attack in Punjab


• February 5: At least 32 persons were killed and 48 others wounded when a suspected suicide bomber blew himself amidst a crowd of Shia worshippers outside a mosque in Dera Ghazi Khan.

• February 7: At least 7 officers were killed in an ambush attack on a checkpoint in Mianwali in Punjab.

• March 3: A convoy carrying Sri Lankan cricketers and officials in two buses was fired upon by 12 gunmen, near the Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore. The cricketers were on their way to play the third day of the second Test against the Pakistani cricket team. Six members of the Sri Lankan cricket team were injured. Six Pakistani policemen and two civilians were killed.

• March 16: At least 15 people were killed and 25 injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up near a busy bus stand at Pirwadhai in Rawalpindi.

• March 30: Nine people, including 8 police recruits and a civilian, were killed and 93 cadets and civilians were injured when about 10 terrorists attacked the Manawan Police Training School in Lahore with guns and grenades.

• April 05: A suicide bomber blew himself up at the entrance of an Imambargah at Chakwal in Punjab province, killing 24 people, including three children, and injuring 140 others.

• May 27: At least 27 people were killed and 326 were injured in a suicide car bomb blast near offices of the capital city police officer (CCPO) and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in Lahore. An ISI colonel and 15 police officials were among those killed.

• June 12: Seven persons, including a prominent anti-Taliban cleric Sarfaraz Naeemi, were killed and seven injured when a suicide attacker detonated himself at the Jamia Naeemia madrassa (seminary) in the Garhi Shahu area shortly after Friday prayers.

• July 2: At least 7 people were killed and 36 persons were injured when a young suicide bomber rammed his motorcycle into a bus carrying employees of the Army-run Heavy Mechanical Complex at the Peshawar Road near Chur Chowk in Rawalpindi.

• August 20: Eight people, including 4 policemen, were injured when a bomb exploded close to a police patrol car on the Misryal road in Rawalpindi.

• September 6: Three policemen were shot dead in Hasan Abdal in apparent act of targeted killing.

• October 10: At least 14 people, including six soldiers, five SSG commandos, three hostages, were killed in an attack on Pakistan Army General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi.

• October 15: At least 19 people, including 14 security officials, were killed and 41 others sustained injuries in three separate terror attacks in Lahore. The attacks were carried out at the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) building on the Temple Road, the Manawan Police Training School and the Elite Police Academy on the Bedian Road.

• October 23: Eight persons were killed and 17 others sustained injuries when a suicide bomber exploded himself at a police check-post on the GT Road near the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) in Kamra in the Attock District.

• October 24: A Motorway police official was killed when a suicide bomber detonated his explosives-laden car near Lillah Interchange close to Kalar Kahar.

• November 2: At least 35 persons, including two women and children, were killed and 63 others sustained injuries when a suicide bomber blew himself up outside a branch of the National Bank of Pakistan in Rawalpindi.

December 4: At least 42 people were killed and 77 people were injured in firing and two suicide blasts at Parade Lane Mosque, near the Pakistani army's headquarters in Rawalpindi.

• December 7: Two bomb blasts killed at least 45 people, and injured more than 100 at the crowded Moon Market in Allama Iqbal area of Lahore in Punjab. The two bombs exploded 30 seconds apart at 8:45 PM (PST).

• December 8: A group of three Taliban militants launched a gun, rocket and suicide attack on the office of ISI, killing at least 12 people and injuring 18people in Multan, Punjab.

Terrorist Attacks in Islamabad


• March 23: A policemen was killed and 2 policemen were injured in a suicide bomb blast at the entrance of the headquarters of the Special Branch (SB), an intelligence agency of the Federal Capital Police, in Sitara Market.

• April 04: Eight Frontier Constabulary (FC) personnel were killed, and seven others injured, when a suicide bomber blew himself up at an FC check post on the Margala Road in Islamabad.

• June 6: Two policemen were killed and four others injured in a suicide attack on a Rescue 15 office at Sector G-8 in capital Islamabad.

September 2: Religious Affairs Minister Hamid Saeed Kazmi was injured in a brazen attack in Islamabad while his driver and a police guard were killed.

October 5: A suicide bomber targeted the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) office in Islamabad, killing five persons, including a UN diplomat and two women employees. Six other staff members were injured.

October 20: Two suicide bombers targeted the new campus of the International Islamic University Islamabad in the H-10 sector of Islamabad, killing at least six students and staff members, including two female students, and injuring more than 29 others.

October 22: A serving Army brigadier, Moinuddin Ahmad, and his driver were gunned down in Islamabad.

October 27: A military officer, Brigadier Waqar Ahmad, escaped death as two gunmen riding a motorbike attacked his car.

• November 6: Gunmen opened fire on an army brigadier vehicle in Islamabad. Brigadier Sohail and his driver were injured in the incident.

December 2: An official of the Pakistan Navy foiled a suicide attack on the Naval Headquarters at Zafar Chowk on the Margalla Road in the national capital Islamabad. However, two Navy personnel were killed in the attack, while 13 persons were injured.

Terrorist Attacks in Sindh
[/B]

January 20: In a suspected sectarian incident, unidentified gunmen shot dead a shop owner from the Ahmadiyya community outside his house in the Kotri District of Sindh province.

February 1: An explosion in the Saddar Town of Karachi killed one person and injured two others. One unidentified man - who fidgeted with the bomb planted in a garbage dump, which caused the explosion - died and two others sustained injuries.

April 15: A 28-year-old sectarian worker-turned-lawyer was shot dead near Hamdard Dawakhana off the arterial M.A. Jinnah Road in Karachi. Mazharul Islam, was a former member of the banned Sunni outfit SSP.

May 22: Four persons were injured in a cross-fire between two groups after pro-Taliban slogans were found painted on the walls of a church in Surjani Town, Karachi.

May 24: A senior activist of the banned SSP was shot dead in a target killing. 40-year old Allauddin was the Lines Area Unit in-charge of the banned Sunni outfit, and had earlier worked for the LeJ.

May 27: Another activist of the banned Sunni outfit SSP was shot dead while his son Sufian was injured by two gunmen near a Tandur in Gulshan-e-Iqbal in the Aziz Bhatti Police limits of Karachi.

June 5: Mir Yaqub Bizenjo, legislator from Balochistan, three of his relatives and a servant were injured after a parcel bomb exploded in his Defence Society house in Karachi.

July 15: Unidentified men killed the central legal adviser of the outlawed Sunni group, the SSP, Hafiz Ahmed Buksh, in Model Colony in Karachi.

July 16: Two more activists of the outlawed SSP, including a guard of the group’s central leader Maulana Abdul Ghafoor Nadeem, were killed in Karachi. One of them died at a hospital after being injured in the clash a day earlier while another’s body was recovered from Model Colony.

August 17: Armed men shot dead Allama Ali Sher Hyderi, chief of the banned SSP, along with his associate Imtiaz Phulpoto at Khairpur in the Sindh province.

September 18: At least three persons sustained bullet injuries during a sectarian clash, which erupted at Iftar time in the precincts of Soldier Bazaar Police Station at Karachi in Sindh. The clash took place between the Shia community and the people belonging to the Deobandi school of thought over the use of loudspeaker during Iftar.

November 19: Ghulam Muhammad Waezi, a Shia clericm was shot dead in the Orangi Town area of Karachi, within the jurisdiction of Tori Bungash Police Station.

November 20: In a suspected sectarian incident, the general secretary of the banned Sunni outfit SSP Karachi chapter, Engineer Ilyas Zubair, was shot dead and provincial information secretary, Qari Shafiqur Rehman Alvi, wounded at Teen Hatti under the Jamshed Quarters Police Station jurisdiction in Karachi.

December 7: The leader of Pasban-e-Aza, a Shia organization was shot dead by unidentified militants in a suspected sectarian attack in the remit of the Brigade Police Station of Karachi. The slain leader was identified as Syed Shahid Hussain.

December 28: At least 43 people were killed and more than 90 were injured in a suicide attack on Ashura procession at M A Jinnah Road. Enraged people set major commercial centers around the blast scene on fire and burnt dozens of vehicles. Violence erupted across the city.

December 26: A remote controlled bomb blast injured nearly 26 Shia mourners at Khalifat Chowk in North Nazimabad Town of Karachi.

December 26: Another bomb blast in Orangi Town in Karachi left 24 people injured. Angry mob had resorted to arsons and anti-government protests in reaction to the blast.

(Data for this report was compiled with the help of news reports on SAMAA website, other media sources, agencies report and South Asian Terrorism Portal)


Source: Samaa TV Pakistan
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Smile Pakistan Nukes Safety (Western independent report on the issue)

IN November December 2009, there has been great speculation in international media about the safety of nuclear arsenal and weapons after having published a report of Mr. Samuel Sherman in New Yorker. After the publication of report there were huge discussions in national media about the safety, everyone was saying that pak nukes are safe but nobody was giving evidences or solid assertions. However I found this report published in germany" I think" and republished in Contemporary Affairs by Imtiaz Shahid Book 64. This report well describes about the safety of our nukes.

This report mainly discussess three questions:

1. Hoe Safe Pak Nukes are?

2. How stable Pak Government is to take care of their nukes?

3. What are the likely prospects of Pak India conflict?

First question is discussed in this post while other two would be posted afterwards.


Pakistan as Nuclear Power: Nuclear Risks, Regional Conflicts and the Dominant Role of the Military
(By Oliver Thranert & Christian Wagner)


• Probably Pakistan is the most unstable country of all the atomic powers

• On nuclear test in 1998 Osama was the only who congratulate Pakistan. He also said it was a religious duty of every Muslim to make nuclear weapon for their protection


• Abdul Qadeer Khan network supplied North Korea, Iran, Libya with know how and necessary equipment

• Pakistan’s tension with India is also a main factor in Pakistan nuclear program. It is more strengthened after Kargal, 2001-02 Indian parliament attack and then Mumbai attacks in November 2008.


CONCLUSION OF STUDY


(Summary)


HOW SAFE PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE?

Command and Control

1. NCA chaired by president (Now PM) comprises of ten members. Consists of 50 highly professionals

2. Numeral observers says it is a well-functioning and professional organization


3. Every authorized decision maker is given numeric codes

4. Every order would be checked by two person or three-person rule


Protection against Theft and Unauthorized Use

1. Pakistan have probably six storage sites, some are dummy, warhead are kept separate from fissile parts and from delivery system

2. Depots are located in multiple security zones, detectors


3. Security department established with 1000 professional, trained staff. And an emergency team established as well (Like US)

4. Pakistan has produced indigenous safeguarding system like permissive Action Link (PAL by US), which provides facility to link nuclear arm’s ability to operate with secret codes without which the arms would be useless.


The Insider Problem

1. High security checks before employing a person. Extensive tests which takes up to one year

2. Screening continues on regular intervals


3. Retired and at post scientist go through special screening process before visiting abroad

Safeguarding of Civilian Facilities and the Issue of Export Control

1. Pakistan has 4 heavy water reactors working for energy purposes which are being visited by IAEA experts on regular intervals

2. Since 2000 all civilian nuclear facilities activities are centrally monitored by Strategic Plans Division


3. Since Jan-2001 civilian nuclear activities are under Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA).

4. In Sep-2004 Pakistan Adopted new export control law, a report on which has been forwarded to UN Security Council

(Summary Ends)



HISTORICAL OUTLINE

• The acquisition of atomic reactor under US program of “Atom for Peace” in 1960s was the beginning of Pakistan nuclear program; moreover Canada provided an atomic reactor in 1972.

• In 1965 Pakistani then foreign minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhuto said that Pakistan would work on nuclear weapons if India does.


• After the war of 1971, then PM Mr. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto called a meeting of atomic scientists at his Multan house in Jan-1972 and directed him to have a nuclear program up in five years.

• In 1974, Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, who had experience in Uranium-enrichment centrifuges in Netherlands, he offered his services to Pakistan.


• He came to Pakistan in 1975 bringing several designs and components of G1 and G2 centrifuges. He also had good contacts with multinational companies providing components for the program.

• Pakistan had its first heavy water production facility in 1980 while in 1981-82 a small level reprocessing facility started work.


• In 1987, AQ Khan for the first time declared that Pakistan is capable for having nuclear weapons.

• In response to Indian nuclear test on 11 and 13 May 1998, Pakistan did six atomic explosions on 28 and 30th May 1998.


• Pakistan got financial help from Iran, Libya and Saudi Arabia to build up Nuclear weapon program while China provided nuclear technology.

THE CURRENT NUCLEAR ARSENAL AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS

• Amount of enriched uranium per warhead varies from 5 to 20 kgs

• Pakistan is also interested in plutonium bombs. It is estimated that Pakistan has 40 -50 nuclear weapons (More then 100 is new estimate).


• Nuclear weapons can be delivered by F-16 (USA), Mirage III and V (France) and A-5 (China). Nuclear weapons can be mounted on ballistic missile like Nodong rocket (N Korea, 1500 KM). Reports of development of Ghauri III (3000 km), Shaheen I (750 km), Shaheen II (2000 km), Babur Crouse (500 km) is also under development.

• Pakistan wants to enlarge its program. Pakistan has 1300 to 1500 kgs of enriched uranium and 90 kg of plutonium at its disposal which could suffice 70 to 90 more warheads. Moreover, Pakistan has capacity of producing 100 kg of highly enriched uranium annually; suffice for 5-6 nuclear weapons.


• Khushab I, Khushab II and Khushab III heavy water reactor are operational. According to USA reports “Pakistan has the fastest-growing nuclear weapon program in the world”.

NUCLEAR DOCTRINE OF PAKISTAN

• Pakistan has never published its doctrine, however, Pakistan sees that its nuclear weapons are to preserve Pakistan’s territorial integrity as well as its independence and sovereignty

• The Chairman of Pakistan Strategic Plans Division, Mr. Gen. Khalid Ahmad Kidwai has occasionally mentioned the scenario in which Pakistan can use its nuclear weapons like; when India attacks Pakistan and occupy its territory, When India destroy a large part of Pakistan Armed Forces, When India impose and economic blockade, When India Politically destabilize Pakistan.


HOW SECURE ARE PAKISTAN’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND NUCLEAR FACILITIES?
Security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons can be studied in following four sections

1. NATIONAL COMMAND & CONTROL AUTHORITY

• From 1975 till 1998, Pakistan did not have well established command and control system

• National command and control authority was established in march 1999, comprises of ten members, chaired by the President (Now Prime Minister)

• NCA formulates national nuclear strategy, responsible for nuclear target planning, nuclear disarmament and arms control, implementation of export control and to insure security of nuclear installations.

• In December 2007 Gen. Musharraf placed NCA on firmer legal basis.

• Day to day management of NCA is responsibility of Strategic Plans Division which functions as a permanent secretariat of NCA. It establishes policy guidelines for physical security of nuclear facilities as well as development and maintenance of strategic command and communication system.

• Western observers assess Strategic Plans Division as well-functioning and professional organization

• Given this highly centralized command structure, the authority to use nuclear weapons would be delegated to field commanders during crises.

• There are strict checks with numerical codes, presumably established by ISI, to order for use of nuclear weapons. In case of use of nuclear weapons two-person or in some cases three-person rule check is established.

• Report says that no doubt Pakistan has made undeniable progress for security of its nuclear power, however some ambiguities are there; Pakistan uses land and space based communication system which is easy to disrupt using electronic counter measures and it needs to be updated.


2. PROTECTION AGAINST THEFT AND UNAUTHORIZED USE

• After 9/11, Pakistan has after much hesitation, accepted the US offer to improve the safeguarding of Nuclear weapons and facilities. However till date, US have not direct access to any nuclear facility in Pakistan

• There probably six nuclear storage sites while some are dummy for security purposes. Nuclear weapons are stored separate then delivery system and fissil cores are sepearte from rest of warhead


• Depots are located in very large areas surrounded by multiple security zones protected by personals and detectors. US invested more than $100 million in nuclear safety. US department of energy and defense has been working on it. Pakistani engineers has been trained in US

• A security department has been established with 1000 professionals and an emergency team has been established as well that can react immediately if any theft reported.


• Three areas remain particularly critical in terms of nuclear safety; accounting of nuclear material, its transportation and its use during crises.

• USA uses a technology namely Permissive Action Link (PAL) for its nuclear security. This technology needs a specific code for the weapon to be used. Bush Administration wanted to transfer this technology to Pakistan but state department said that this would be against non-proliferation treaty. Perhaps US were reluctant because it would give a detail of US nuclear weapons to Pakistan and secondly the information could be transferred to China via Pakistan.


• Pakistan was reluctant to get this technology as it might be thinking that using US technology would facilitate US to get secret information when US wants

• The Chairman of Strategic Plan Division announced that Pakistan has formed a locked based system for nuclear weapons which is equivalent with US PAL.


3. THE INSIDER PROBLEM

• There are 70,000 employees including 7-8000 scientists working in nuclear installations. It has been a threat that someone from them can provide know-how to extremists. It is also feared that someone from military can provide this information to outsiders.

• To dismiss this argument Pakistan has worked with the help of US. It has very good screening system prior to offering job too anybody. Candidate and his family security checks are established. Strategic Plans Division continues its screening on regular intervals. Security clearance is must for retired and existing scientists prior going abroad.



4. THE SAFEGUARDING OF FISSILE MATERIAL AND EXPORT CONTROL

• Pakistan generates only 2.4 % of its electricity from nuclear plants. However it wants to get eleven more nuclear reactors from China by 2030. Currently Pakistan has Canadian Origin (KANUPP), Chashma I (China) and two reactors near Rawalpindi. Pakistan has given access to 18 of IAEA inspectors out of 220 to inspect the installations and is cooperating more than enough.

• Since January 2001, all civilian nuclear installations are monitored by Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA) and centrally monitored by Strategic Plans Division


• In September 2004 Pakistan has adopted new export control law which puts more barriers on nuclear exports

(TO BE CONTINUED)

Last edited by Andrew Dufresne; Wednesday, January 20, 2010 at 12:03 PM. Reason: Date corrected - 1998
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Whose war is being waged?
By Iqbal Akhund

Synopsis

• Rarely smooth Pak-US relations are going through a bad patch again.
• Why is America offering money? To make us a secular state and taking away our nukes.
• The fact is America sees Pakistan as a dangerous enemy
• Principle interest of America is Pakistan is of avoid the happening of misuse of our nuclear technology by radical fanatics
• Aid comes with conditions, yes, but why we still need it?
• Afghan war was not our war; we were dragged into it by America. It was not a war of necessity
• It should not have been waged the way it was.
• Now President Obama is prepared to settle for a ‘successful outcome’, sending more troops, to turn around the situation to seem more successful with eventual withdrawal of troops. This means either Karzai government would measure up or an agreement will be negotiated with Taliban or a bit of both.
• Whether America leaves after negotiations or just packs up, repercussions would be grave for Afghanistan. Afghanistan would very probably fall into the hands of the Taliban or revert to the anarchy that prevailed after the Soviet pullout.
• Now would Afghans accept Taliban order again? They have no choice. The best alternative America’s eight-year adventure has produced has not worked. There is no one around who might bring even the symbolic unity that the monarchy had provided before it was overthrown.
• None of this bodes well for Pakistan. In the worst-case scenario the presence of the Taliban on both sides of the Durand Line could provide an ethno-ideological basis for a revived Pakhtunistan movement.
• The return of Afghan Talibans, no longer Pakistan’s protégés, would give material or moral boost to Pakistani Taliban. Their insurgency cannot be dismissed on the assumption that it is based on Pakistan’s alliance with US against war on terror. They have their own purposes and they will pursue it even if Pakistan refuses to co-operate with America.
• Our war is not the same war as the Americans’ but a parallel war against a group for whom the Pakistani constitution is un-Islamic, a group that demolishes schools, beheads opponents, flogs women, blows up families out shopping, people at prayer etc.

THE US-Pakistan relationship, rarely very smooth, is going through a particularly bad patch at present. It carries a load of past resentments, grievances and disappointments.

Paradoxically, the more America tries to make amends, talk of a long-term relationship, the more it seems to feed suspicions of its intentions at the popular level.

One is asked, ‘Why is America offering money and making a fuss over Pakistan now? It must have a purpose of its own!’ — taking away our nukes; turning Pakistan into a ‘secular’ country; breaking it up altogether.

The fact, however, is that the US does, at this juncture, wish Pakistan well — not because it sees Pakistan as a friend but, on the contrary, because it sees it as a potentially dangerous enemy — a country with nuclear weapons and technology (that it sold abroad), politically unstable, facing every sort of economic and social problem, where a variety of armed and radical tehriks and lashkars and jamaats etc, with sympathisers in the establishment, have had a free run for years and could get their hands on the nuclear weapons.

One of the reasons, the principal reason, for America’s interest in Pakistan at present is to prevent this from happening. If it comes to that, we can be sure that the US will not hesitate to use whatever it takes, including force, to this end.However, it has not come to that yet and it sees a better bet in a Pakistan that evolves into a stable democracy, with an educated and healthy population, moving ahead economically and socially. So one might say that our nuclear weapons are proving to be an asset in an unexpected way!

Of course the aid the United States is offering comes with conditions as aid always and from anywhere does, explicit or implicit. Our successive governments have taken the money and accepted the conditions because we needed the assistance and the conditions were acceptable. It has done the same in the present case. What should worry us is why after more than 60 years of independence, we still need such aid in order to remain afloat.
As for whose war it is, the Afghan war was indeed not our war; Pakistan was dragooned into it by threats and blandishments. It was not really a war of necessity but was launched by the Bush administration in the post-9|11 surge of nationalist emotion and hubris of power without giving enough chance to negotiations with the Taliban (negotiations that the Americans are now anxiously seeking).

It should not have been fought the way it was — from the air, with daisy-cutters and bunker-busters causing innocent deaths; nor by co-opting the Northern Alliance and thus jumping into Afghanistan’s tribal, ethnic, sectarian fray and alienating the Pakhtun majority.

Now President Obama is prepared to settle for a ‘successful outcome’ — a subjective concept — and is sending more troops to Afghanistan to turn the situation around.

This seems a doubtful prospect even to some among the American military. Perhaps the intention is only to bring about an outcome that could be seen as ‘successful’ and that allows US troops to begin withdrawing as proposed. This means that either the Karzai government measures up or an agreement is negotiated with the Taliban or a bit of both.

Whether America leaves after some kind of settlement with the Taliban or just packs up, Afghanistan would very probably fall into the hands of the Taliban or revert to the anarchy that prevailed after the Soviet pullout. The Taliban stood above the scramble and imposed order on the post-Soviet anarchy and could do so again.

Now that the Afghans know what kind of order the Taliban order is, would they welcome them again? They may have no choice. The best alternative America’s eight-year adventure has produced has not worked. There is no one around who might bring even the symbolic unity that the monarchy had provided before it was overthrown.

None of this bodes well for Pakistan. In the worst-case scenario the presence of the Taliban on both sides of the Durand Line could provide an ethno-ideological basis for a revived Pakhtunistan movement.

The return of the Taliban, no longer Pakistan’s protégés, could, at the very least, provide moral or material boost for the Pakistani Taliban. The latter’s insurgency cannot be dismissed as a reaction to Pakistan joining the American war; they have aims of their own and are not going to stop even if Pakistan stops cooperating with the Americans.

Our war is not the same war as the Americans’ but a parallel war against a group for whom the Pakistani constitution is un-Islamic, a group that demolishes schools, beheads opponents, flogs women, blows up families out shopping, people at prayer etc.

The army will eventually win its battle against these fanatics if it keeps it up. We have a better chance of winning it because we know whom we are fighting (not many now see them as ‘our own people’) and what the fight is about — ‘hearts and minds’ or concretely, jobs, education, health and so forth.

That, and for no sinister purpose, is where the new aid from the US and others is meant to go.

On the broader front, viz the India-Pakistan relationship, it now looms as a negative factor in the Afghanistan situation. It is a pity that President Obama was scared away from taking up this nettle as he had proposed to do in his pre-election speeches.Still, it is not to be supposed that the US is doing nothing in the matter. Adm Mullen and Gen Petraeus have publicly mentioned Pakistan’s concerns over Indian activities in Afghanistan and Hillary Clinton has urged India to stop playing hard-to-get over resuming the composite dialogue with Pakistan.

However, the ills that afflict the country are largely internal — political instability, social injustice, corruption, inefficient administration — the remedy for which lies entirely in our hands. The national consensus on the Balochistan package and the NFC agreement shows that we are capable of dealing with them and despite the prevailing despondency; there is reason to be optimistic.
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Smile Causes of corruption

Pakistan is at 42nd number of corrupt countries according to Transparency International. It uses more then 7 surveys-Asian Development Bank, World Economic Forum Bank and World Bank- for results. Recent reports show that 5 billion was used in corruption in the current year. On top of corrupt departments are National Highways Authority, Pakistan Housing Authority, SECP, Ministry of Water and Power, WAPDA, PEPCO, Pakistan Steel, PIA

CAUSES OF CORRUPTION / RELATION
1. Relation with economic development
• Levels of economic development to effect petty bribes

2. Relation with economic liberalization
• Economic liberalization is good in a sense but leads the government to sell assets to politicians lower then market price.
• It may also facilitate corruption in the longer run if government fails to combat corruption

3. Relation with Democracy
• Democracy is least corruptive but depends upon how firmly rooted democracy is
• Opposition groups and press as a watch dog
• However, politicians buy off opponents, bribe voters and do corruption in tenders and huge projects

4. Relation with Free press
• Free press as a watch dog
• Freedom of press can be threatened by A) Persecution of journalist, B) Restricting the flow of information, C) Newspaper may be intimated, D) Imposition of strict laws
• However some journalist works like paid men of corrupts

5. Relation with Poverty
• Poverty is directly related with corruption
• Poor people have to bribe to get their legitimate rights

6. Relation with Gender
• Studies shows that A) women more likely to suffer fro corruption, B) are less corrupt then men, C) reduce level of corruption if given authority

7. Relation with low salaries
• Low irregular salaries are cause of corruption
• Most developing countries have huge number of public employees so low salaries.
• The choice for government is difficult as A) low salaries seems to encourage corruption but enable more people some kind of regular income
• B) A smaller, better paid bureaucracy may be less corrupt but huge unemployment

8. Relation with international trade
• Encourage smuggling tariff barriers are high

9. Relation with international corporations
• Present bribes to get favorable responses
• To get tenders and tax exemptions

10. Relation with Foreign Direct Investments (FDI)
• A factor of economic growth. Corruption discourages FDI

11. Relation with Offshore banking and tax havens
• Offshore banks keep the illegal money sage.
• For corrupt they offer three advantages; Customer Confidentiality, Outside the jurisdiction of mainland economies and the constitution status is ambiguous

12. Relation with Money Laundering
• Money laundering means cleaning the money and reinventing it in business as legal
• Three phases: Placement Phase, Layering Phase and Integration stage

13. Relation with International Crime
• Corruption exists wherever international crime
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Smile CORRUPTION: Causes and Consequences

CORRUPTION

 CONSEQUENCES OF CORRUPTION

1. Impact on growth and development

• Delays, disrupt and diverts growth and development
• Spending diverted from productive programs to big projects which increases probability of corruption

2. Impact on Poverty eradication

• Excessive government borrowing, high inflation
• Reducing poverty requires strong financial, administrative and regulatory institutions

3. Impact on Human Rights

• Corruption in all forms is itself violation of Human Rights

4. Impact on environment

• Undermines environmental protection
• Promote frauds, violate international agreements, Bypass inspection

5. Impact on private sector development

• Distort the market
• Illegitimacy of tendering process

6. Impact on development assistance and aid flows

• International donors divert donations
• However they think that despite of corruption, some money reaches the needy and they can’t do anything to stop corruption

7. Economic cost of corruption

8. Political Cost of corruption

9. Social/Cultural cost of corruption

What is CPI?

Corruption Perception Index is a league table of international corruption shows the least corrupt country at top and most at bottom (10-0) established by Transparency International in 1995. Bribe Payers Index was established in 1998. However some weaknesses are; perception that responders are accurate and representative, perception may not reflect actual, different type of surveys for different countries.

Why anti-corruption laws are not always enforced?


• No political will
• Poorly drafter laws
• Non availability of information and resources
• Enforcement requires: A) effective auditing and monitoring institutes, B) well trained police force, C) independent and honest judiciary

 HOW TO TACKLE CORRUPTIONS

• China, 2 officers of Food and Drug administration sentenced to death accused of taking bribe of $300,000 and $850,000 in 2007. Vietnam, National Assembly Standing Committee rejected removing death penalty for corruption. Russian court is to decide on death penalty after 10 years of moratorium.

• We should have a mechanism to clear mess of 63 years.

• Professional and autonomous NAB or Commission is needed.

• An international treaty like China did, is needed to extradite corrupt from other countries. China have this agreement with 25 countries but not with USA, UK and Canada.
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