Here goes the input on Pak-India relations.Under the umbrella of this topic, you will have a flavour of the dialogue process between the two countries, water issue and the Kashmir problem.

PAKISTAN & INDIA

 India foreign exchange reserves are close to $ 300 billion, as against Pakistan’s $ 515 billion.
 India’s rupee- dollar parity, for example, is Rs. 45 against Pakistan ’s Rs. 85.
 In India, sales tax is five to seven %, in Pakistan it is 15 – 18%.
 India dose not rely on foreign loans and credits – it does not borrow from the IMF.
 India relies on large – scale industries as against Pakistan ’s focus on small and medium-sized enterprises.
 India’s exports per month are equal to Pakistan‘s annual export.
 The economics of India and Pakistan can benefit from each another. Trade with India may be in the interest of Pakistan, because India is a market of more than one billion peoples as against Pakistan’s 170 million.


 The composite dialogue between India and Pakistan, which has been initiated after decades, of tensions between the neigbouring nuclear armed states, was stalled post – 26/11. Prime Minister Gillani said that international pressure has forced India to come to the negotiating table. In a recent interview, Chidambaram revealed that someone living in India or an Indian himself could have provided help to the non-state actors during the coordinated attacks in Mumbai.
 India has tried to say that its offer for talks does not mean a resumption of the composite dialogue that was suspended over a year ago.
 Pakistan has argued that the talks this month (February) should at least be a step towards revival of the disrupted dialogue. What is needed today is a blend of peace-preaching and people’s direct contribution to tackling, in a fair and just manner, all the issues that have led to endless confrontation between the two closest neigbours.
 At the London conference, the proposal to set up a regional council to include India was sidelined on Pakistan’s objections despite having the backing of the US and the UK on Kashmir, both countries must reach a compromise as there is no other way to settle this decades-old issue. The water dispute can be settled as per international law and the Indus Water Treaty.

WHY INDIA OPTED FOR DIALOGUE:

 In order to buy time to consolidate its position, both internationally and with the Kashmiri leadership.
 India has yielded to US pressure and for its own reasons. It primarily wants to secure its interests and investments in Afghanistan; both political and financial.
 India wants to achieve penetration and depth in Afghanistan after the likely withdrawal of NATO and US.
 India intends to defuse the effects of accusation of conspiring disruption in Balochistan levelled by Pakistan.
 International pressure

PEACE PROCESS—A NECESSITY

 Peace is not only better than war, but infinitely more arduous” George Bernard Shah
 What both the countries need to understand is that there are certain rogue extremist elements on both sides and that the peace process must not be subjected to their hawkish agenda.
 According to a recent survey, 72% of Pakistani’s and 66% of Indians favour genuine and lasting peace between the two countries.
 India’s present offer of peace dialogue has been prompted by (a) strategic failure in Afghanistan (b) Pressure exerted by international community.
 The danger of terrorism is a common threat and can be dealt with by launching joint efforts. India must desist from keeping all blame on Pakistan for the activities of non-state actors. Pakistan is itself facing the menace of terrorism and is busy in taking all possible measures to combat terrorism effectively.
 Establishment of peaceful and friendly relations between India and Pakistan is not as option but a necessity. Therefore, India must let the better sense prevail and reign in the aggressive rhetoric of General Deepak Kapoor and the likes that has the potential to scuttle the peace efforts.
 Indeed, the India – Pakistan peace process has been immune to domestic and external factors and has always been vulnerable to occasional hiccups.

TOUGH CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD

 In any case, the task ahead is not going to be easy, given the complexity of the issues involved. There will be no quick fixes, and we should be ready for a long-drawn-out process, which must not be interrupted by change of governments or personalities, nor should it be subjected to the vagaries of domestic politics.
 Historically, Muslims and Hindus have lived together for centuries and therefore theoretically they should be able to coexist peacefully even now. It seems that the centuries of living together instead of bridging the gaps rather reinforced the competitive spirit between the two communities.
 New Delhi’s involvement in funding and arming dissident elements in Baluchistan, as a counter weight to have Kashmir issue resolved on her terms, is an open secret.
 The fall of Dhaka and assertion by Indian rulers that we have taken revenge of a thousand years, destruction of Babri Masjid, massacre of Muslims every now and then, and their unabated atrocities in Kashmir are what our history is construed of.

WAY FORWARD

 In this backdrop, in order to bridge the trust deficit, the two nations will have to embark upon tangible trust building measures.
 Being the biggest state of the region, India needs to radiate confidence among smaller partners by generously resolving regional issues.
 The areas in which some forward movement can be expected include issue of peace and security, CBMs, Siachin, Sir Creek, the Water issue, economic and commercial cooperation , the Iranian gas pipe line, promotion of friendly exchange in various fields, visa liberalization and counter – terrorism.
 India and Pakistan need to take some Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) like increase the flow of trade and travel, relaxation in visa policy and exchange of students at the university level etc. If tension is eased, the trade between India and Pakistan can go up to almost 55 billion dollars.
 India insists on increasing economic links, but puts the core issues like the Kashmir dispute and water distribution on the back burner. India needs to realize that Pakistan cannot continue the peace dialogue at the expense of its vital security interests.
 This seems to be a distant and a remote possibility, but certainly is achievable. What the people and the government of the two countries need to understand is that they can win prosperity and peace for their people ‘only’ if they abide by the internationally accepted norms. Moreover, respect the aspirations of the people.
 As the experience of Europe shows, economic integration among states with a history of hostility towards one another is a good way of easing tensions taking that approach would constitute real thinking outside the box.

WATER ISSUE OF PAKISTAN AND INDIAN VIOLATIONS

 The survival of Pakistan ’s economy and harmonious relationship between the four provinces is largely dependent upon the solution of water scarcity issue. Millions of cusec water is wasted on rivers and thrown out right into the sea without much use. Constant silting of water reservoirs, lakes, canals, rivers and waterways is one of the crucial reasons of declining water storage capacity. Water shortage also occurs due to seepage, leakages and infiltrations. Most of the rainwater mixes into drainage effluents and is wasted. The mismanagement of precious water resources also accounts for the scarcity of water shortage in the country.
 According to the latest handout from various sources, the major reservoir of Pakistan namely Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma have already lost approximately about 500,000 acre feet of their storage capacity due to sedimentation. It is estimated that in the coming years, this loss will be increased to 600,000 acre feet.

 A group of more than 20 different UN bodies warned earlier this month that the world may be perilously close to its first water war. "Water is linked to the crises of climate change, energy and food supplies and prices, and troubled financial markets,"

 According to a 2006 World Bank report, Pakistan is rapidly moving from being a “water stressed country to a water scarce country”

 Indus Water Treaty was signed in Karachi on Sep 19, 1960.

Apart from the water problems mentioned above, Pakistan is facing the problem of water with the neighbouring country India which has violated the Indus Water Treaty that was brokered by World Bank in 1960.In this way, Pakistan’s water problem is two-pronged: on the one hand, we are inflicted by internal problems; on the other hand, externally, Indian violations of Indus Treaty pose serious challenges and add to our existing water problems. India has started building Kishangang 330 MW dam on river Jhelum and 450 MW Baghliar dam on river Chenab for hydro power generation, along with Tulbul (Wollar) barrage on Jhelum for navigational purpose. Baghliar dam would reduce the flow of water to Pakistan , depriving its agriculture regions of irrigation.

Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari warned: "The water crisis in Pakistan is directly linked to relations with India . Resolution could prevent an environmental catastrophe in South Asia , but failure to do so could fuel the fires of discontent that lead to extremism and terrorism."

 A report published in “New Scientist” in 2005, pointed out that “Violations of the Indus Basin Treaty could lead to widespread famine, and further inflame the ongoing conflict over Kashmir . …”
 Bandayopadhyay,in his book ‘‘Water ecosystem and Society”, alarms that the water that a Pakistani uses one third of the water that he/she used to consume twenty years ago. According to the writer, the water shortage is likely to exacerbate in the coming days owing to the Indian injudicious treatment of the water that should come to Pakistan.
 India is also persuading Afghanistan to construct a dam on Kabul River so that Pakistan could be deprived of the water reservoirs originating from the western side of the border.
 India has constructed 62 Dams violating the Indus Basin Treaty and other International Treaties.
 India is investing 120 billion dollars on a project aimed at constructing three thousand water reservoirs to be completed till 2016.
 Sindh---3 Dams----200 MW electricity
 Jhelum: Kishanganga Hydropower Project
 Chenab: Hakal Dal Dam---it will reduce 30 lakh acre feet annual water flow of the river.
 Shah Mahmood Qureshi said on February 8 this year that Pakistan’s case on Kashmir and water was based on truth and the govt. would fight it with full strength.
 India controls, diverts and steals the water from the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum whenever it wants. Wullar Dam project on the river Jhelum & Wullar Barrage ( India calls it the “Tulbut navigation project”).
 95% of Pakistani River ’s water originates or runs through the Occupied Kashmir .
 In this context, Pak took the case to Indus Waters Commission in1986, and a year later it admitted its failure to resolve the issue. Before Pakistan moved to International Arbitral Court, India stopped Construction.
 Kishanganga: Pakistan has been opposing the construction of the Kishanganga hydropower project in Kashmir, which is called Neelum when it enters Pakistan . Islamabad believes that the diversion of Neelum waters will cause a 27% water deficit.
 Indian water commissioner, during his recent visit to Pakistan , admitted / accepted Pakistan ’s viewpoint.
 Unlike India , Pakistan is highly dependent on Agriculture, which in turn is dependent on water. Of the 79.6 million hectares of land that make up Pakistan , 20m are available for agriculture. Of those 20m hectare, 16m are dependent on irrigation. So, almost 80% of Pakistan ’s agriculture is dependent on irrigation. It is notable that many of Pakistan ’ industries are agro-based such as the textile industry.
 Besides, 80%of Pakistan ’s food needs are fulfilled domestically. Thus, an interruption of water supply would have broad ranging effects. For example, when the country suffered a drought from 1998 to 2001, there were violent riots in Karachi.
 It is of particular attention that half of Pakistan’s energy comes from hydroelectricity, and at present, our country has been facing a severe crisis of load shedding which is the result of power-shortage in country.
 WAY FORWARD:
 Water dispute between Pakistan and India should be settled amicably in the shortest possible time. If it is prolonged for a long time, there is a possibility that Pakistan ’s most fertile lands will be converted into deserts. Pakistan ’s short and medium term solution to water crisis lies in large number of reservoirs which can be easily constructed within a short span of time.
 Water management: It is now best time to manage water resources efficiently to get rid of the water shortages once for all. Losses occurring due to seepage can be reduced or eliminated by lining the canals. The illegal theft of water by feudalists must be stopped forthwith. The modern irrigation techniques should be applied to improve water distribution and its utilization. There should be effective strategy to contain rain water that flows to the sea and remains unutilized. A strong campaign must be launched among the public of storing the water.
 New water reservoirs are needed to meet the additional demand of the burgeoning population of Pakistan.

THE KASHMIR DISPUTE

 As per recorded history, Kashmir was conquered by the Muslims in the early fourteenth century and was ruled by the Swati dynasty for nearly 222 years from 1339-10561. That was the period when majority of the Kashmiri population converted to Islam. The state then passed under the rule of Mughals during Akbar and remained under their control until 1752. Then came the Afghans under Ahmed Shah Abdali. Afghans controlled the state till 1819 when Sikh ruler of Punjab Ranjit Singh invaded and captured Kashmir. The British defeated Ranjit in 1846 to annex Kashmir to British India. However, the British sold the state to the Dogras, maintaining their overall sovereignty over the state. The Dogras ruled Kashmir from 1846 until partition. It was during their rule that Gilgit-Baltistan – a majority Muslims region – was added to the state of Jammu & Kashmir.
 At the time of partition, 87 % of the population of Kashmir was Muslim.
 Kashmir (Ruler was a Hindu and the majority population was Muslim) VS Hyderabad (Ruler was a Muslim but the majority population was Hindu). Double standards of India-- annexed both Kashmir and Hyderabad .
 Kashmir dispute has led to three wars between the neighbouring countries.
 65-War: Tashkent Declaration brokered by former USSR .
 71-War: Simla Agreement which facilitated the repatriation of prisoners of war and also emphasized the resolution of all disputes between the two countries, including Kashmir through peaceful negotiations on bilateral level.
 1989: the Kashmiris launched an armed struggle against the Indian Forces
 The human rights violations in Kashmir have no parallel in the world history and have been properly recorded by the international human rights organizations.
 Pakistan has been extending diplomatic and political support to the Kashmir freedom movement and inviting attention of the world community.
 Pakistan has been observing Kashmir Solidarity Day on 5th of February each year since 1990.
 9/11, Bombay Attacks: India has been able to distract the world attention from the situation in Kashmir .
 Kashmir has become a nuclear flash point
 Way Forward: The only way to find an acceptable solution to the Kashmir conundrum is granting the right of self-determination to the people of Kashmir as envisaged in the UN Resolutions
 It is also incumbent upon US, EU and other countries that have a stake in eliminating terrorism and promoting world peace, to focus their attention on Kashmir as well.