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All-purpose Essay outline / skeleton on “Global Financial Crisis”
Dear members this material is posted for multiple objectives. I am assigning a general topic to this outline / Essay skeleton because this outline / skeleton may serve various purposes. One can utilize these points in following Essay topics:
1) Global Financial Crisis / Global Economic Meltdown 2) Global Financial Crisis / Global Economic Meltdown and Developed Countries 3) Global Financial Crisis / Global Economic Meltdown and Developing Countries 4) Global Financial Crisis / Global Economic Meltdown and Asia 5) Global Financial Crisis / Global Economic Meltdown and Capitalism 6) Global Financial Crisis and Globalization 7) Global Financial Crisis / Global Economic Meltdown and Pakistan 8) Global Financial Crisis / Global Economic Meltdown and Emerging Economies 9) Pakistan Economy – Internal as well as External threats 10) Worsening Economic Conditions of Pakistan and Remedial Measures We can’t exactly call it a formal outline rather an essay skeleton because I have included some facts, figures, quotes etc. for the ease of our members. This material can’t be termed as a full fledge essay because this is in a point form covering maximum directions. Consider this as an effort to help members for writing an essay with a mix of outline and ideas. I have utilized nearly 100 sources for collecting this stuff consisting of various central Banks, World Bank, IMF, Asian Development Bank, EU, Fed, News Channels, Newspapers, Magazines, BIS, Group-20, speeches, summits, conferences, workshops etc. Note: As my objective was to produce multipurpose master outline so you need to be selective while using this outline in any essay keeping in view the topic of the essay. There will be some points in this outline which will be omitted in some specific essay topics, and there will be the topics which will be requiring a particular ratio / balance in the points. Though this will be like a panacea for financial crisis / economic meltdown / recession / depression related topic yet you need to be cognizant while applying it. Mods: Please help me in consolidation of various posts in this thread because length of this outline is 20 pages in word document. I wish I could post it in a single post. |
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Raz For This Useful Post: | ||
irshadsod (Sunday, March 07, 2010), kinzacss (Sunday, April 04, 2010), Last Island (Sunday, June 21, 2009), Viceroy (Sunday, June 21, 2009) |
#2
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Part-1
When Benjamin Franklin said, “There are only two certainties in life – death and taxes,” he might have added financial cycles.
Economic crises or bubbles are often of cyclic nature and keep revisiting the world every 10-15 or 50-60 years whenever there develops fault line in the system. Financial Crisis defined:
As Winston Churchill said, “The farther backward you can look the farther forward you can see.”
The principal causes of the recent turmoil in financial markets were a breakdown in underwriting standards, a significant erosion of market discipline, risk management weaknesses, and the failure of regulatory policy to offset them. Two different views about American financial crisis: 1)
Alternate Cause of current crisis: The current economic crisis had begun well before the ongoing global economic meltdown. Over the past eight years, official policies had essentially focused on the services sector at the cost of agriculture and manufacturing sectors. The economy faced many challenges with worsening fundamentals, resulting in depletion of the foreign reserves and depreciation of the rupee. Debate on fixing responsibility: Market vs State: Transmission mechanism of global financial crisis in different economic systems: The psychology of fear plays a major part in all recessions. We may remember the quote of Franklin Delano Roosevelt. He said, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself." “It is the nature of economics that you play today and pay tomorrow”.
Controlled /managed / planned/ socialistic /communist system. Thirty Years of Development Economics: After thirty Years of Development Economics there has been a great debate over fixing responsibility that whether states are responsible for global financial crisis or markets? The late 80s to early 90s saw an intensive policy debate on “market failure” vs “government failure,” and on “neo-liberalism” vs “revisionist” approaches. (To put it simply, “neo-liberalism” is an approach which relies heavily on market mechanism, while “revisionist” is the one which emphasizes the role of state). However, this debate was over 15 years ago. The World Bank in 1997 backed away from pure free market dogmatism by emphasizing the “role of state” in its World Development Report. Policies recommended by international financial institutions as well as by leading development economists in this behalf emphasize an appropriate macro-economic framework, a realistic exchange rate which is competitive and stable, the right set of sectoral policies and investments, appropriate role of the state in the economy, integration of the domestic into the world economy, poverty alleviation, clear identification of priorities and peaceful resolution of conflicts. Measures taken by the US administration such as nationalization of AIGs and bailout packages to rescue the failing financial institutions and commercial organizations, in fact do not fit in the free market regime that believes in survival of the fittest. Many analysts and economists have firm view that free market can’t do self-correction. It is being hyped at present that we are, “entering a new paradigm of tight money, tough regulation, less speculation and more government meddling in markets.” With the loss of credibility of the American model, it is being speculated that because of the shift in the base of capitalism and new centers emerging in Europe and Asia, they will take the initiative to modify the model in light of their experiences. Linkages of current financial crisis:
-- some Asian institutions have exposure to subprime mortgage-backed assets and other CDOs; -- re-pricing of corporate risks in the US probably caused some normalisation of risk premiums; and; -- tighter liquidity conditions in the US and Europe may affect capital flows to and from Asia. Linkages: Living in Free trade (Globalization) era. No isolation Negative Impact
October 6, both Standard $ Poor and Moody’s, two of the world’s largest rating agencies, downgraded Pakistani bonds. Current Position of Pakistan Economy: Besides high balance of payments deficit, the country is at present facing a number of challenges, such as:
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"Tumhary nafs ki qeemat Janat hay isy Janat say kam qeemat pey na bechna." "Jiyo to istarh ky log tum sy milny ko tarsy; maro to istrah k log tumharee mot par royain" |
#3
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Part-2
Realization on the part of regulators in Pakistan:
The effect on the poor is grave. 20 million will fall below the poverty line if 1 percent point growth is curtailed. This is on top of the 150 million who joined the ranks of the poor because of the recent food and fuel price hikes. World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoellick, The World Bank: · Expects private capital flows into developing countries to almost halve, from $1 trillion last year to around $530 billion in 2009. · Forecasted a large contraction of 2.5 percent in world trade volumes for 2009. · Predicts that prices for non-oil commodities will fall by 23.2 percent in 2009. World Bank President Zoellick pleaded for G-20 leaders not to lose sight of the human crisis being created by the global economic turmoil. “As always, it is the poorest and most vulnerable who are the hardest hit,” he said, it would be “an error of historic proportions” if the developed countries ignored the interests of developing countries. “Many of these lower and middle-income countries don’t have much fiscal space: much of it has been used up trying to buffer the effects of the food price crisis. Malnourishment is expected to afflict nearly 1 billion people by the end of the year. “The FAO estimates that in 2007, 923 million people were undernourished compared with 848 million in 2004. We estimate that by the end of 2008 up to 967 million people (or an additional 44 million people) will be undernourished largely due to the rise in global food prices,” the report commented. The worst affected countries such as Burundi, Madagascar, Niger, Timor Leste and Yemen are those which already have the highest indices of stunting and wasting. · The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which covers the world’s major industrialized economies predicted contractions in 2009 of 0.9 percent, 0.1 percent and 0.5 percent for the US, Japan and the euro zone, respectively. OECD economist Jorgen Elmeskov told the Financial Times that the “mess” stemmed from a financial crisis that was engulfing rich and poor countries alike.
Major changes in the global scenario in the aftermaths of current financial crisis: Unfortunately, the multi-lateral system is in a crisis now. The international community has failed to prevent regional wars and other violent conflicts; the inequities of globalisation are manifest in increasing marginalisation and exclusion; the promised support from the rich countries towards the realisation of the Millennium Development Goals has not been realised; a serious attempt to reform the United Nations failed at the World Summit of 2005; the Doha Round has been close to total failure; little has been done to seriously reform the international financial architecture; sufficient preparation for pandemic disease is lacking; and the disagreements on whether and how to tackle climate change continue to remain unresolved. What is needed is a rebuilding of the international financial architecture imperfectly put-together decades ago, which has become totally dysfunctional.
Remedial measures on global level: Need for a Fast, Flexible and Coordinated Response: Responding today, securing tomorrow
Lessons learnt from 2007 sub-prime mortgage debacle:
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"Tumhary nafs ki qeemat Janat hay isy Janat say kam qeemat pey na bechna." "Jiyo to istarh ky log tum sy milny ko tarsy; maro to istrah k log tumharee mot par royain" |
#4
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Part-3
KEY LESSONS TO BE LEARNT FROM THIS RECENT FINANCIAL TURMOIL ARE MULTIFOLD:
Necessary actions taken and to be taken to tackle financial crisis: Remedial Measures: Depends upon the ability of the rest of the world to escape unscathed Foreseeing Vicious circle emerging Ramifications of the credit crunch Due diligence and homework Multi-billion dollar stimulus progr Steps taken: · Declaration of the Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy : the Leaders of the Group of Twenty, held an initial meeting in Washington on November 15, 2008 · London Summit – Leaders’ Statement :2 April 2009: IMF $1.1 trillion programme of support to restore credit. (We have today therefore pledged to do whatever is necessary to: 1) restore confidence, growth, and jobs; 2) repair the financial system to restore lending; 3) strengthen financial regulation to rebuild trust; 4) fund and reform our international financial institutions to overcome this crisis and prevent future ones; 5) promote global trade and investment and reject protectionism, to underpin prosperity; and 6) build an inclusive, green, and sustainable recovery. )
We should know that “Beggar thy neighbors” policy is the best example of “government failure”.
It will take a big change in economic policy and very radical, coordinated action among all advanced and emerging-market economies to avoid disaster. This includes: • Another rapid round of interest-rate cuts of at least 150 basis points on average globally; • a temporary blanket guarantee of all deposits while insolvent financial institutions that must be shut down are distinguished from distressed but solvent institutions that must be partially nationalized and given injections of public capital; • A rapid reduction of insolvent households' debt burden, preceded by a temporary freeze on all foreclosures; • Massive and unlimited provision of liquidity to solvent financial institutions; • Public provision of credit to the solvent parts of the corporate sector in order to avoid a short-term debt refinancing crisis for solvent but illiquid corporations and small businesses; • a massive direct government fiscal stimulus that includes public works, infrastructure spending, unemployment benefits, tax rebates to lower-income households, and provision of grants to cash-strapped local governments; • an agreement between creditor countries running current-account surpluses and debtor countries running current-account deficits to maintain an orderly financing of deficits and a recycling of creditors' surpluses to avoid disorderly adjustment of such imbalances.
Solution available to Pakistan: Going by the conventional wisdom, monetary and fiscal stimulus is required to shore up a sagging economy. These can be in the form of tax and interest rate cuts and increased government spending. We desperately need the IMF bailout package to avert the perception of default in the short and medium term. Besides, the IMF package would also help the government in correcting the macro-economic imbalances through a well-thought reform programme. To diversify the export items as well as the export markets in order to keep our exports growing in a scenario marked by a global economic downturn. To cut the import of non-essential items – all such items the country could live without. Government to persuade China to invest in the country’s export-oriented manufacturing sector, in order to boost the country’s export earnings. At the same time, China may also be invited to invest in Thar coal and the energy sector to help the government in overcoming the current energy crisis.
(a) regulatory and punitive measures by the State Bank to stop the trade of dollars as a stock, (b)Prevent money changers and banks from transferring dollars abroad without foolproof business or other legitimate reasons. For this, the Federal Board of Revenue and SBP should ask for fortnightly returns from the money changers and banks. (c) Money laundering laws should be strictly implemented (d) Export proceeds should be ensured within stipulated period. (e) Transfer of deposits of indenting commission on import/export should be made mandatory (f) foreign exchange for the import of luxury/unnecessary items should be arranged by the importers through their own external sources. The government should issue a list of items with customs PCT numbers for the import of which foreign exchange from internal sources may not be provided, and (g) strict actions should be taken against over- and under-invoicing.
The two big surplus countries in the rich world, Germany and Japan, are suffering deep recessions, which may bring them to the table. The problem of imbalances goes much wider than America and China. America, Britain and other deficit countries have drowned themselves in cheap credit from abroad. Because the structural forces behind the global saving glut are unlikely to abate quickly, there is a real risk that the dangerous imbalances will persist—with America’s public sector as the new consumer of last resort. It would be foolish to focus on fixing the financial industry only to find that the public finances are left in ruins. Declaration of the Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy: Group of Twenty, held an initial meeting in Washington on November 15, 2008. Root Causes of the Current Crisis During a period of strong global growth, growing capital flows, and prolonged stability earlier this decade, market participants sought higher yields without an adequate appreciation of the risks and failed to exercise proper due diligence. At the same time, weak underwriting standards, unsound risk management practices, increasingly complex and opaque financial products, and consequent excessive leverage combined to create vulnerabilities in the system. Policy-makers, regulators and supervisors, in some advanced countries, did not adequately appreciate and address the risks building up in financial markets, keep pace with financial innovation, or take into account the systemic ramifications of domestic regulatory actions. Major underlying factors to the current situation were, among others, inconsistent and insufficiently coordinated macroeconomic policies, inadequate structural reforms, which led to unsustainable global macroeconomic outcomes. These developments, together, contributed to excesses and ultimately resulted in severe market disruption. Actions Taken and to Be Taken International financial institutions (IFIs). A broader policy response is needed, based on closer macroeconomic cooperation, to restore growth, avoid negative spillovers and support emerging market economies and developing countries. As immediate steps to achieve these objectives, as well as to address longer-term challenges, we will: Recognize the importance of monetary policy support, as deemed appropriate to domestic conditions. Use fiscal measures to stimulate domestic demand to rapid effect, as appropriate, while maintaining a policy framework conducive to fiscal sustainability. Ensure that the IMF, World Bank and other MDBs have sufficient resources to continue playing their role in overcoming the crisis. Common Principles for Reform of Financial Markets In addition to the actions taken above, implement reforms that will strengthen financial markets and regulatory regimes so as to avoid future crises. Regulation is first and foremost the responsibility of national regulators who constitute the first line of defense against market instability. However, our financial markets are global in scope, therefore, intensified international cooperation among regulators and strengthening of international standards, where necessary, and their consistent implementation is necessary to protect against adverse cross-border, regional and global developments affecting international financial stability. Regulators must ensure that their actions support market discipline, avoid potentially adverse impacts on other countries, including regulatory arbitrage, and support competition, dynamism and innovation in the marketplace. Financial institutions must also bear their responsibility for the turmoil and should do their part to overcome it including by recognizing losses, improving disclosure and strengthening their governance and risk management practices. Commit to implementing policies consistent with the following common principles for reform.
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"Tumhary nafs ki qeemat Janat hay isy Janat say kam qeemat pey na bechna." "Jiyo to istarh ky log tum sy milny ko tarsy; maro to istrah k log tumharee mot par royain" |
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Raz For This Useful Post: | ||
irshadsod (Sunday, March 07, 2010), jadoon khan (Monday, June 22, 2009), kinzacss (Sunday, April 04, 2010), Last Island (Sunday, June 21, 2009) |
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