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Old Tuesday, July 24, 2012
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TOPIC:
Pakistan’s war on terror and its impact on our psyche and politico-socio-economic fronts

“you are either with us or against us”-collin powel(secretary of the state of USA)

This was the ultimatum that was given to Pakistan’s then president parvez musharraf via a telephone call in the wake of the terrorist attacks on the newyork’s twin towers and Washington’s pentagon on 11th September 2001 respectively, which killed more than 3000 people. America was filled with a vehement sense of reprisal and soon after the attacks it announced to crack down on the terrorist network responsible for this heinous crime, which they believed had its roots in the Afghanistan under the leadership of osama bin laden,a founder and leader of the “alqaedah”,and this is how a military campaign against the terrorists and the alqeadah in particular took birth with a tag of “war on terror”.

Pakistan under the leadership of president parvez musharraf could do little to avoid the alliance with the USA .The democracy wasn’t in order and musharraf was seen as a reformist by the larger section of the society at that point of time. Provincial and national assemblies were dysfunctional and thus the sole power rested with the Parvez musharraf, who 7 days later i.e 18th September announced the decision of partnering with the USA on the war against terror; terming it as a decision taken in the “national interest”. This Decision wasn’t met with a great deal of resistance inside Pakistan apart from the protests lodged by few religious groups who considered the war as being waged on their Muslim brothers. Bases were given to the USA and all sorts of military, intelligence and logistics support was promised.

Ideally speaking this whole campaign had nothing to do with Pakistan, and this war possessed no strategic or ideological meaning to the country, apart from the few economic gains that were anticipated as a result of the aid and the stronger relationship with the usa which Islamabad thought could be exploited to gain hegemony over the india and other disputed matters such as Kashmir.

This is how the Pakistani establishment who was in the absolute control miscalculated the whole issue. The biggest blunder they committed was to underestimate the strength alqeadah and its associates possessed and the sympathy a specific section of Pakistan residing mainly near the pak afghan border had for them. Pakistan’s another blunder was not to account for its own social and political weaknesses .PAK afghan border also known as the Durand line is perhaps ones of the most porous border of its kind, which is poorly marked and monitored, none of the hawks sitting in the Islamabad had considered the possibility that the war may not remain confined within the geographical boundaries of Afghanistan, they failed to acknowledge the fact that Federally administered tribal area(FATA) could act as a sanctuary for the terrorists and given the control Pakistani authority had over FATA and the Durand line ,this happening was highly conducive and this is what ultimately happened. Three years after the war’s inception, Pakistani authority for the very first time in the history had to move in the FATA to fight militants and since then the matters have gone worse, military operations carried out in FATA bred extremism and soon the roots of the war extended to each and every part of the society and this is how Pakistan dragged itself into a quagmire and till date hasn’t been able to get itself out of it, and soon the “war on terror” took another dimension as Pakistan’s war on terror

ECONOMIC IMPACT:
Hawks sitting in the Islamabad anticipated economic gains out of this war however on the contrary war dented the whole economic structure of Pakistan, the military and the economic aid Pakistan received from 2001-2011 amounts to almost $18 billion, however the economic losses Pakistan conceded amounts to $40 billion since 2001,thus a burden of $22 billion had been placed on the weak shoulders of the Pakistani people who have experienced the worst inflation in the history of country, price hike in the commodities of daily use soared to the extent that major chunk of the Pakistani population went under the poverty line.

Foreign direct investment(FDI) nosedived by 50% to $800 million from $5.4 billion in 07-08,which curtailed job opportunities and rendered many people jobless, circulation of the wealth came to a standstill that resulted in depreciation of the currency. Frequent bomb blasts and crimes such as kidnapping, extortion and murder resulted in the closure of markets and other trade centers. People from the business community were compelled to shift their business outside the country because of the insecure environment.
Tourism industry was badly affected as a result of the war, people from all walks of the life avoided travelling to Pakistan as a result of the highly uncertain condition. Pakistan with its diverse cultures, people and landscapes attracted millions of people from all over the world. Northern part of Pakistan has been quoted as a “heaven” by one of the great mughal emperor Jahangir. Places like Moenjodaro in sindh,mount K2 in the Kashmir, coasts of sindh and balochistan,beautiful vallies such as swat,naran etc,deserts of cholistan and the historical forts of Lahore and Bahawalpur were the magnet of the tourist industry. Considerable proportion of the Pakistani population depended on the tourism to earn their living especially people from the Northern part of the Pakistan whose economy mainly depended on the tourism, which was battered as a result of the insurgency and the influx of the militants .Military expeditions to quell the militancy in the swat and the adjoining areas resulted in the displacement of millions of people, which costed $600 billion. To the dismay of the local people of the swat when they returned back, their homes and their business infrastructure were completely destroyed and their rehabilitation process is estimated to take few years and the tourism industry’s reinvigoration might take decades.

Attacks on multinational organizations and companies such as the attacks on Marriott and Peal continental in Islamabad and Peshawar respectively added fuel to the already battered economy. Private as well as the government infrastructure were badly damaged, markets were bombed, private houses were bombed, police stations were attacked, military headquarters were attacked; that resulted in the heavy infrastructural losses and human casualties.

Another sector of the country which conceded a great blow as a result of the terrorism was sports, cricket is the most popular sport of Pakistan, Pakistan cricket board(PCB) used to earn a great deal of money through international matches, and other cricketing events in the country. Unfortunately an attack on the srilankan cricket team on march 2009 at Lahore, when it was on a tour of Pakistan to play test and one day international (ODI) matches injured several key srilankan players; it sent a very bad message to the international world, especially those associated with cricket. This incident was soon followed by a hard decision by the International cricket council(ICC) banning all sorts of international matches in Pakistan till indefinite period of time and since then there hasn’t been a single international match in Pakistan, so much so world cup 2011 matches that were supposed to be hosted by Pakistan were hosted by india and srilanka.This had a very bad impact on the most popular sport of the country, revenues earned by the PCB declined by a major proportion, sponsorship was badly affected and the youth were highly discouraged to play professional cricket.

Impacts on psyche and society:
The state and its citizen are in a state of insecurity, most of the people here in Pakistan have become disillusioned with the status quo and the government, they have lost faith in the system and the governmental organization ,on the other hand militants and the terrorist organizations attract the poor and downtrodden with a promise of good social and economic future for their families, militants have brainwashed the minors and have given incessant sermons against the system of the day, apart from this the drone attacks which NATO has been carrying out from the past 6-7 years aimed to target the terrorists have often resulted in the collateral damages and thus has reinforced the claims and moral position of the terrorists owing to which large number of the people are recruited by the terrorists every year.

Suicide attacks; a new phenomenon introduced by the terrorists to fight for their objectives indicates the success militants have been able to gain over the hearts and minds of the people. Suicide attacks are perhaps the best demonstration of the hatred and desperation Pakistani people possess. Pakistani authorities have largely been answerless to counter this strategy of the militants and have conceded huge infrastructural and human losses as a result; more than 2000 thousand people have so far been the victims of suicide attacks which includes high profile army generals, bureaucrats and politicians.

An international agency conducted a survey with a name of “personal health questionnaire” which yielded some really horrifying results and declared 44% of the Pakistani population under the depressive disorder which has resulted in numerous heart diseases and others pertaining to depression. A country which is already deficient of the health facilities and spends a very small chunk of the GDP on health couldn’t have got a worse situation than this.
According to unicef more than 720,000 people have been displaced from the federally administered tribal area (FATA) and according to an international news agency CNN,one-third of the Pakistani people want to move out of their country ,which indicates high level of insecurity that prevails. People fear from going in to the mosques and markets, such is the level of the insecurity that people have started possessing their own personal weapons, according to a local news agency more than 16000 arms license have been issued by the interior ministry in the past six months, which suggests that people have lost faith in the police and other law enforcing agencies.
Religious extremism has seen unprecedented rise in the past few years, the religious tolerance has declined. A country which is divided in numerous sects and religion with no patience and tolerance is highly susceptible to conflicts and fights. Everybody tries to impose his version of Islam and which largely results in a conflict sometimes a violent conflict. Blasphemy laws were the most discussed in the past few years in the wake of the infamous blasphemy case against a Christian women. Anyone who opposed the law or dared to debate on it was seen as the enemy of Islam and was considered blasphemous. Former governor of Punjab salman taseer was killed by his guard on a statement issued by him against the laws which he (guard) claimed to be blasphemous and thus merits death.
Society appears to have developed preconceived notions against the particular ethnic class and the ones possessing beards. Which many see as religious extremists. They are always seen with doubt and people avoid interacting with them thus disrupting national harmony.

Political and social:
Pakistan’s alliance with the USA on war on terror can be divided in to two chapters,
1 Pakistan under musharraf vs America under the bush
2 Pakistan under PPP coalition vs America under the obama
First phase of this war was quiet successful vis a vis pak-USA relation, which was absolutely normal and America seemed satisfied with the efforts of Pakistan on the war against terror. American’s demand were fulfilled, they were given bases and logistics support.Musharraf cracked down on the militant organizations and banned them on the directives of USA.Hafiz saeed of lashkir e taiba and maulana masood azhar of jaishe Mohammed were arrested. Over the due course of time 369 Alqeadah key suspects were handed over to USA in return of financial gains, key alqeadah leader such as Khalid sheikh was arrested. Military and intelligence support was extended to USA in every way possible.These measures made parvez musharraf quiet popular amongst his US counterparts, who used to praise him quiet often and his policies were admired in maintaining global peace. Chabot a US congressman praised parvez musharraf in the following words “Musharraf’s policies are in the best interest of Pakistan”.In due recognition of his efforts on war against terror he was also nominated for nobel peace prize.
Things remained quiet smooth for musharraf domestically too, his key rivals nawaz sharif and Benazir Bhutto were exiled and there was hardly anyone except the few religious parties who opposed him. His policies remained unchallenged and unopposed for a major period of his rule.Pakistan-america relation were all time high those days and domestically he was too powerful for his opponents, who could not even think of opposing him and thus his rule remained almost unchallenged till 2007.

Musharraf’s government conceded 10 drone attacks throughout his tenure, which includes 6 years of war on terror. Which indicates that his government was efficiently cracking down on terrorist networks comparatively. However his blind support for the USA on war against terror and incidents such as LAL masjid operation which was seen as a move to please USA were met with strong opposition inside the country. Members of the civil society turned against him, religious parties were already furious and the lawyers who had launched a movement for restoration of deposed judges against him proved to be the last nail in the coffin for musharraf’s unchallenged rule over the past 7-8 years. Many analyst believed that he overestimated the American influence and support, which proved detrimental for his survival as the president of Pakistan.Lal masjid operation escalated terrorism throughout the country, and a new wave of violence had spread over the entire country killing several key figures including the benazir Bhutto-PPP’s chairperson In December 2007, who had recently returned from the exile. That triggered country wide protests and the country was on a brink of disaster.

Musharraf’s unpopularity soared owing to the inappropriate policies on the war against terror and in the attempt to please America and maintain his hold over the country. He couldn’t hold on the presidency much longer after being reelected on October 2007 and resigned over the fear of being impeached by his opponents who gained majority in the national assembly in 2008 general elections.

The second phase of the war was quiet troublesome for the Pakistan domestically and the Pak-US relations were struck by doubts and lack of trust.

With no conclusive end of the war in sight, it had entered the settled areas of the country. A government which claimed to be Democratic tried various methods of solving the issue by dialogue but failed and thus had to resort to military. Pakistan was repeatedly told to increase their efforts in curbing the militancy within their geographical boundaries by the USA.
Being a democratic government it was a bit considerate about the public sentiments, and that was the hurdle that was lying in the compliance of the US directives. On US pressure Pakistan initiated several military campaigns inside FATA but still USA didn’t seem satisfied, Hilary Clinton the secretary of state once said “People of US are very skeptical on the money they are paying to Pakistan on the war on terror”

This alliance has had several blows on accounts of various incidents which Pakistani saw as against their sovereignty and integrity. A US marine raymon davis who guised himself as a diplomat killed 3 civilians in Lahore and was then lucky enough to get away with it.
Drone strikes incessantly continued despite the resolution passed by the Pakistan’s national assembly against it. It showed no respect of Pakistani sovereignty and thus left a serious question on the effectiveness of the government of the day.

US’s claim of Pakistani ineffectiveness was reinforced on 2nd may 2011 when Osama bin laden the most wanted man in the whole world was killed through an operation conducted by the US on abbot bad ,just meters away from the Pakistan’s military academy(PMA).Pakistan had to concede a great embarrassment domestically as well as internationally, a commission was set up to investigate the incident but was of no avail. This further fuelled the doubts and skepticism about the Pakistan’s capability and sincerity to the cause.

Time and again Pakistan was blamed of playing a double game and were alleged of supporting the haqqani network in Afghanistan, this even led to the cessation of the military aid for quite some time. The incident which embarked a permanent strain on the US-Pak relation was the drone attack on the salala check post which killed 28 military personals, after which Pakistan closed the nato supply to Afghanistan, Pakistan demanded an apology which was half heartedly given after almost 6 months. This incident gave birth to resentments against USA within and out of army and now majority of the people wanted this alliance to end as soon as possible.

Analysts believe that there is no conclusive end of the war. The war seemed to lost its way and the objectives of the war now seem blur. Radicalization and extremism had been spread all over the world, even Americans buy this idea and are not willing to prolong this war. By the end of 2014 they are projected to leave however the question still remains, is the world a safer place than it was on 11th September 2011?

Last edited by Shooting Star; Tuesday, July 24, 2012 at 11:59 PM. Reason: Do not use red color.
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