Pak-Indo Relations in current scenario:
Introduction:
In the wake of recent military tensions between Pakistan-India over cross-border firings, it is of utmost importance to defuse tensions by bringing both sides together to discuss the impasse, leading to a resumption of a peace dialogue which has remained suspended since Mumbai attacks in 2008.
Political Relations and Foreign Policy:
The disputes and differences between the two countries had created a serious Lack of Trust as one of the first key factors between the two countries affecting bilateral relations since they became independent in 1947. The lack of trust is one of the main factors that has influenced the bilateral relationship and is responsible for recurrence of tensions. Given the three wars fought by them, the relationship is an accident prone because of which the two countries have come close to war on other occasions. The key factor which has bedeviled Pakistan-India relations is the Kashmir dispute. Kashmir has been at the center of the conflict for the past 30 years, and could act as a flashpoint for both the countries anytime. Currently, India demands the issue to be resolved through bilateral negotiations to which both countries have agreed to the SIMLA agreement of 1972. The Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in his 2014 visit to India to attend Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s inaugural ceremony said that he intended to "pick up the threads" of the Lahore Declaration, referring to a pledge both countries made in 1999 to cooperate more closely to ease tensions in the light of the SIMLA agreement. However, Pakistan has been raising the Kashmir issue at the United Nations General Assembly to remind the global community of their commitment as per the relevant United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan (UNCIP) Resolutions of 1948 and 1949. Another factor which has become equally relevant in the bilateral relations is the post 9/11 scenario of Terrorism. Examples of these are the 2001 attack on the parliament in New Delhi and the Mumbai attack in 2008 both allegedly carried out by militants based in Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan brought up the issue of India allegedly insurrecting the insurgency in Baluchistan, Pakistan’s restive province where separatists are fighting the Pakistani state. Also, Pakistan’s leadership has often accused India of supplying arms and funding to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) who is resorting to terrorism because of Pakistan’s support to the US/NATO/ISAF in the Afghan war. Some elements of TTP are comprised of the Mujahedeen, who were friendly to Pakistan and fought against the military occupation of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union during the eighties. In this war, Pakistan was the conduit for military support extended by the United States of America, Saudi Arabia and other countries. These groups are not against Pakistan for supporting the US military intervention in Afghanistan and are called TTP.

Military and Security Cooperation:
The nuclear capabilities of the two countries, total war over KASHMIR was unlikely. At the same time, resolution of the Kashmir issue did not appear to be possible within the ten year time-frame. Here examples of terrorist attacks in Pakistan and India, alleged to have been planned on each other’s territory, were mentioned in the historical context. The variations within this factor ranged from a) strategic level triggers to b) enhance infiltration and translocation to c) low profile triggers, and d) over all control of terrorism.
The third factor was Pakistan-India Territorial Disputes. These include, firstly – SIR CREEK, which is a dispute relating to the un-demarcated boundary of the coast of both countries dividing Gujarat in India and Sindh Province in Pakistan – a water body that comes under disputed territory, and of which poor fishermen on both sides of the country are often victims. Secondly, the dispute over SIACHEN glacier located in the mountainous area of Himalayas. Both India and Pakistan claim sovereignty over the entire Siachen region and the dispute intensified in the eighties. Between 1984 and 1999, frequent skirmishes took place between India and Pakistan. However, more soldiers have died from the harsh weather conditions in the region than from combat. Both India and Pakistan continue to deploy thousands of troops in the vicinity of Siachen and attempts to demilitarize the region have been so far unsuccessful. Prior 1984, neither country had any military forces in this area. Aside from the Indian and Pakistani military presence, the glacier region is unpopulated. India is the upper riparian in the flow of five rivers to Pakistan. The two countries signed the Indus Water Treaty In 1960 which was brokered by the World Bank. In this treaty, as a lower riparian Pakistan’s water sharing rights were protected. The implementation of the Treaty has led to serious differences between the two countries and is responsible for increased tensions. On the positive side, the treaty remains intact despite many wars, although Pakistan continues to claims that India uses more than its due share of water and at times, through the dams constructed is said to release more water that the river can regulate downstream. However, Government of India continues to refuse this allegation. The Final Factor That Affects Military And Security Cooperation Is The Nuclear/Technological Advances. In this, the variations suggest that there could be a possibility of a) total arms race, b) nuclear arms race, c) conventional arms race and lastly d) arms control regime.

Economic and Trade Relations:
This key area carried the most promising outlook. There appeared to be a consensus that even if the progress was not possible in the previous two key areas, there was a degree of optimism with regard to improved economic and trade relations. There are four factors affecting it – A) Trade Policy, B) Transport Policy, C) Demand and Supply Dynamics, D) Administration of Borders.
The variations include an idealistic outlook for having no borders, a) similar to the European Union (EU) model, or b) the situation remaining the same as it is today where by the countries remain in economic competition with each other. The economists & Business persons, pointed out that even with the recent violent border clashes, trade continued uninterrupted albeit on a low level, which reflects that despite the problematic nature of the relationship, money matters. According to data released in May 2014 by the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, Ministry of Commerce and Industry India, the volume of bilateral trade recorded a net increase of $410 million from April 2013 to March 2014. Pakistan’s exports to India grew by 28% while Indian exports to Pakistan increased by 19%. Bilateral trade has increased to $2.4 billion, which may soar to $6 billion in the next two years if both countries agree to grant “most favored nation” (MFN) status to each other. Currently, most of the trade between India and Pakistan takes place via Dubai and its volume is estimated at over $4 billion. The Government of India has granted the MFN status to Pakistan whereas Pakistan has not returned the gesture. The Pakistani Government maintains that it will grant MFN.

Cultural Exchange:
Cultural exchange between the two countries is a focus area that can bridge the communication gap and improve people to people contact, which can result in pressure mounting on leadership in both countries to improve ties. With Pakistan and India sharing the same history, before the partition in 1947, cultural exchange can help connect people, although it was noted that both countries have tried to erase their similarities and focus on differences, which has led to misperception on both sides. According to the analysts, the cultural exchanges are adversely affected by difficulties created in travel between the two countries as a result of SECURITY Concerns. The variations which include a) a zero exchange, which has happened during war periods in the country, to b) completely free movement.