Strategic Importance of Pakistan

[Sumairs]

STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF PAKISTAN

Guest Column-By Hari Sud

Pakistan was built up as a spoiler state both by US (early 50s, 60s, 70s) and by China immediately after 1962 border debacle in NEFA and Ladakh with India. Pakistan’s strategic importance was very much enhanced in early 50s when US looking for a base to fly the U-2 over USSR found the perfect base in Peshawar to sneak into the USSR from south and fly over vitally important USSR’s space station and strategic missile bases which were far away from the USSR’s European borders. This relationship ended with the shooting down of the U-2 spy plane by USSR. Peshawar, Sarghodha, Rawalpindi ceased to be important military bases to US as these were before the U-2 shooting down.
As US was losing a bit of interest in Pakistan with the end of Eisenhower Administration, China stepped in with political and moral support to whatever the Pakistanis wished. After the 1962 victory of Chinese forces over India, China found it very useful to be friends with Pakistan. All this was done to keep India off balance and prevent it from focusing on its northern border. With the onset of Vietnam War, US had very little interest in Pakistan except supply of spares for previously supplied military hardware continued. China’s influence increased. Several high ranking visits by Chou En Lai and Liu Shao Shi took place to Pakistan. In return, Pakistani dictators and Prime Ministers paid visits to China.
The 1971 Bangladesh creation by India removed a major irritant in Pakistan’s internal cohesiveness and made Pakistan a West Asian country, linked to it by culture, religion and military pacts (CENTO and SEATO). The 1971 war also forced the Pakistani leadership of the time - Zulfikar Ali Bhutto (father of Benazir) and later Zia – Ul – Haq (the military dictator) to look around and find its own strategic importance in the peculiar geography it is located. The USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan in 1989 was a God sent opportunity to Pakistani dictator – Zia Ul Haq to exploit its geographic location to aid and abet the US position of defeating Soviet Union in an Asian battlefield. There was not much of a fight per se in Afghanistan. It was only guerrilla action and counterstrike by the occupying force resulting in civilian causalities. US inflated the figures to make it look as a great US victory. Civilian losses were great. These occurred when after the USSR withdrawal, aided by Pakistani self interest, civil war broke out and two groups fought to gain control of Kabul. Later, Pakistani aided Taliban came into the picture and defeated both the warring sides. At that time (1994-2001), Afghanistan became a client state of Pakistan.
The above brought into the focus the particular strategic importance of Pakistan in all West Asian related affairs.
With Iran under religious theocracy rule since 1989, Iraq completely unstable and at war with US since 1991, the breaking up of USSR into smaller states with three Muslim dominated states immediately bordering Afghanistan to the north made US to look around to find a country which could be brought under its influence and whose close proximity could be exploited to the US advantage. Choice again fell upon Pakistan. Although Pakistan’s relationship with US was sour during nineties with Clinton Administration not taking kindly to the moral, material and political support which Pakistani Army was extending to the terror network of Osama Bin Laden yet military to military relationship between US & Pakistan was always good.
The 9/11 in New York and Washington and famous President Bush line that – You are with us or against us, brought Pakistan again under the US fold.
Now the US focus is to exploit Pakistan’s peculiar geography to keep control over the Muslim world of Pakistan itself, Afghanistan, Iran, Gulf region (with huge Pakistani émigré workers), Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan etc.

How is US going around doing this:

1. Four military bases in Pakistan are under permanent US control (this is same situation as it was in 50s)
2. Pakistan is now hugely dependent on the economic assistance it has received from US in last two years and likely to receive in next decade or so.
3. India and Pakistan are being force fed a solution on Kashmir issue with a sweat talk of “Road Map for Peace” in Kashmir.
4. A pro west government is in place in Afghanistan. Opposition forces in Afghanistan are constantly under surveillance to keep them in check. Pakistani military intelligence – ISI is helping the US to achieve that (it is still questionable).
5. Hunt for Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda will continue for many more years to come, which will keep the pro west government in Afghanistan in tact.
6. US is building up relationship with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, again using Pakistani intermediaries
7. Iran is an odd ball. It is under pressure from US for its capture of the US Embassy in 1978 and also trying to build an Atomic Bomb. It is friendly to India for economic reasons than to Pakistan. But it is just a matter of time when US and Iran will confront each other on one or the other issue. At that time Pakistan will be very important to the US.
8. Gulf states, who are not friendly to US, after the demise of Saddaam Hussain are likely to fall in line.
In each of the above, Pakistan’s importance is vital to US. Pakistan is a fundamentalist Muslim state (thanks to the Zia Ul Haq). It is able to cultivate Muslim dictators in neighboring states whether they wear a military uniform or in civilian clothes much more easily than sweat talking US diplomats with pocket bulging with dollars. Even today’s much changed Russia or democratic India cannot match what Pakistan could do with these states. Muslims all over the world see each other as cousins (same brotherhood). They owe the same religious faith; same beliefs hence would listen to each other much more intently than to others.

How does Pakistan see itself in this situation?

Pakistanis are delighted with the newly found role at the behest of US. They have thrown their lot behind US. Firstly economic and military aid is flowing back again. Secondly Kashmir as an issue may be taken out of the equation. The Kashmir solution as US is proposing is not exactly what Pakistanis have in mind, but it is better than status quo of fighting and loosing and then slowly getting lost in fundamentalism in preparation for the next fight. This is all bad for the well being of rapidly declining lot of an average Pakistani citizen (exclude the feudal lords who still control the Pak economy and are lining up their own pockets with money).
This is how Pakistanis are looking at:
* Trade Kashmir LOC as permanent border in lieu of dollars and leadership role for Pakistan in West Asia.
* US to broach an arrangement to ship immense amount of gas from Iran to India, earning them as much as $500 million in trans-shipment fees per year.
* US to build a gas pipeline from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan overland Afghanistan and Pakistan to the port of Karachi, earning Pakistanis immense fees and make them as overlords of energy to South East Asia, Japan and even to China.
* Trade between India and Pakistan will hit $2 Billion dollar a year in three years.
* Pak– China friendship could be put on hold. There is nothing in common between Pakistan and China. Rather they are natural enemies. One is deeply religious and other atheist dictatorship.
The above will generate economic wealth unseen in this part of the world in previous two thousand years. Also being in gas transshipment business is much more profitable than selling textiles in competition to China or selling software in competition to India in the present day and age.
This hinges quite a bit on Pakistanis cooling off their tensions with India. In fact, road to peace and prosperity for Pakistanis lies thru New Delhi.
Now we look at the current initiative of peace initiated by Prime Minister Vajpayee. As soon as it was announced, Musharraf and his cohorts jumped on it without conditions. Mr. Vajpayee has staked his job on it. Rightfully so. Chances of success are greater this time than they were at Agra or Lahore or Simla or Tashkent.
The much publicized road map for peace by US (unofficially) includes Pakistan returning to some form of democracy where the military dictator will not be able to dismiss the elected Prime Minister at will. Nor will he have the capability to stage a coup on a pretext. This is supposed to happen in 2004, as the US Road Map to peace says. It is this year, Musharraf and Chief of the Army Staff to follow after him will have their wings clipped.
Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Shariff will return home from their exile and contest elections. ISI will become a purely intelligence organization. And prosperity may return to Pakistan.

Benefits to India:

If peace returns to the western borders of India and Kashmir returns to normalcy then much of political, economic and strategic attention could be turned towards internal matters. In spite of huge economic gains in last 10 years, India is a poor country. There is enough food but no distribution system to deliver food to the hungry. Plenty of water falling from the sky during the Monsoon Season but not enough drinking water in the cities and villages. Too many cars in the cities, but not enough roads to run them. Abundance of natural resources but electricity is still turned off at will. All these need to be fixed and fixed soon. If the government takes its attention away from Pakistan, Kashmir, Jehadis, terrorist attacks etc. then all issues which affect people’s lives every day could be fixed. The benefits will be same for Pakistan.
Economically strong India is a natural counterweight to China. This what US is looking for. This is also what present day Russia wants.
In order to wean Pakistani mind set away from Kashmir centric thought process to more pragmatic economically superior policies, the economic fulfillment of peoples dream has to be kept in mind. I believe President Bush has seized the initiative and has urged on the two nations to talk and talk fruitfully. President Bush has put his military and economic muscle behind it.
To recap, peace is a possibility in South Asia and it is coming at the behest of US. For Pakistan, road to economic prosperity lies thru Delhi.

(email-harisud@hotmail.com)

http://www.saag.org/papers8/paper708.html