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  #21  
Old Tuesday, April 25, 2006
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Post Pak offers trade, energy corridor to China via Gwadar port

BEIJING, FEB 22: Pakistan is keen to act as a transit point for China by giving access to the strategic Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea to tap the central Asian markets and vast energy sources, visiting President Pervez Musharraf said.
“We are interested in setting up a trade and energy corridor for China,” he was quoted as saying by the state-run ‘China Daily.’ Mr Musharraf, who is on a five-day state visit to China, was referring to Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea coast in Pakistan’s Balochistan province through which crude oil imports from Iran and Africa can be transported to northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region by land. The Pakistan president, who discussed the proposal with top Chinese leaders here, said the route on which a feasibility study is being conducted is a shortcut compared with the one via the straits of Malacca.
The Gwadar port is strategically located as it is quite near the strait of Hormuz, through which 40% of the world’s oil passes, he noted.
China contributed about $200 million for construction of Gwadar port’s first phase, which was completed last April when premier Wen Jiabao visited Pakistan. It is reported that China will also finance the second phase, which will have nine more berths, an approach channel and storage terminals.
Mr Musharraf said he is looking forward to the result of the feasibility study on transporting crude oil via mountainous regions in Pakistan and suggested that building a railway was an option. “We should look at the issue with strategic vision.”
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Post FTZs, the sweet dream that never came true

TEHRAN, Feb. 15 (MNA) -- Problems after the end of Iran-Iraq war prompted the country to take stride toward rapid economic recovery needed for development.


Huge costs caused by eight years of imposed war and tough economic sanctions had forced officials to make immediate decisions that bore fruit as soon as possible.

Economic sanctions were still in effect and Iran had no trade link with the world. Hence, the successful pattern used in Southeast Asia came under the spotlight. The establishment of free trade zones (FTZs) was key to the linkage of Iran and the world as it helped remove commercial and political obstacles.

The Communist government of China in the wake of FTZs setup had made great economic progress and established relations with the capitalist system. Those products China failed to sell and buy were traded in these zones.

Appropriate programming, strategic plans, feasible study on capitalism, technology, capital, and exports facilitation were the main reasons behind the firm step China took toward free economy at a short time.

Beijing’s experience was so appealing to Iranian officials that they immediately made up their mind to set up free zones.

Firstly Kish Free Zone (KFZ) emerged in the southernmost part of the country and two years later Qeshm, another island in the south, was named after free zone. Chabahar port came as the third and now six are active in the country.

The right but hasty decision caused the country not only to take no advantage of free zones in the past 16 years, but to turn these areas into threats to domestic economy.

Contrary to the initial plan, Iran’s free zones have turned into import hubs. The zones have neither developed trade nor attracted foreign capitals. Lack of outlined plan and goal is likely to blame for the failure. It is surprising that the goals of the six-strong free zones were for the first time decided in the Fourth Development Plan.

Still, the purposeless zones have been established at the most underdeveloped corners of the country – the areas, where instinct backwardness hinders rapid progress. Cultural obstacles such as a ban on women’s activity in Sunni-populated areas spoil the advantage of inexpensive workforce. The zones are still suffering from lack of infrastructures and basic needs such as fresh water, electricity, and the like. These shortcomings could be removed only if the government allocates enough money because the Free Zones Supreme Council is grappling with problem of receiving the state budget.

Lack of national will for development of these zones has caused such a predicament.

If the government as the investor does not participate in projects for building roads and establishing ports with 100,000-ton capacities, the development plans will surely fail. Investment risk is justifiable only when the government gets involved firstly to encourage other investors. Otherwise, Pakistan’s Gwadar Port will deprive Iran’s Chabahar of development as the UAE’s Dubai surpassed Iranian island of Kish.

Still, Basra has turned into a free zone as well and will soon constitute a big part of transit route.

Southern megaport

The fact is that Iran has free zones and they should be promoted as soon as possible.

Chabahar, if paid serious attention, could be lucrative and make huge money.

It takes five years to activate the eastern region of the country and help it outdo Gwadar. The Fourth Plan outlining the region’s plans has given top priority to development, trade, transit of goods, production, and scientific services.

Appropriate communication infrastructure and railway enable Chabahar to turn into a megaport along southern coasts.

First zone

Kish is the first free zone in Iran, but economic officials and policymakers are still complaining about the island. Kish has turned to an imports hub and its main goals have relegated to oblivion, prompting officials to prepare the island for new activities such as the development of tourism and education.

If the realities of Kish are quite grasped and enough time and money are spent, the island has the capacity to put the outlined plans into practice.

Kish has the potential for the growth of tourism, trade, science and culture, and handicraft.

Tourists from southern neighboring countries will flock to the resort, provided of course more medical centers are built and equipped.

The Cultural Heritage News (CHN) agency argues that foreign banks and a stock exchange promise a brisk trade on the island.

Kish, when compared to other areas, is hosting more foreign tourists.

Menace of smuggling

The Persian Gulf’s biggest island is still wrestling with the menace of smuggling.

A change in the island’s appearance with paying no heed to its local fabric has caused the citizens’ traditional trade to be dismissed as smuggling. The speculation is increasing while nothing has been done to create job opportunities for local people -- the lowest-income class.

Oil and industrial companies rushing to the region act like a two-bladed sword targeting locals. On one hand, their activities may lead to industrial and commercial development while on the other hand, they may pollute and destroy the environment of the nicest island of the Persian Gulf.

Still, Qeshm attractions have the capacity to turn to the country’s main hub for eco-tourists.

Qeshm is to be a region for producing oil products, reexporting goods, and rendering scientific and cultural services. The plan is on agenda while Qeshm lacks skilled and trained workforce, job-seeking women still face cultural obstacles, and the island has yet to link to the mainland.

Therefore, it is still uneconomical to transport goods to the island.

Three new free zones

Last year, parliament approved a bill that was later given the green light by the Guardian Council on establishment of three free zones of Arvand, Anzali, and Aras.

Contrary to the previous three zones, managers of the trio were appointed and their duties were defined.

Many a problems have been already settled for Arvand, Anzali, and Aras because the road ahead is clear and well known.

The limits of Aras Free Zone were ratified in mid-March of 2005, but those of Arvand and Anzali have yet to be decided.

The main challenges the newly established zones faced in 2005 were the inclusion of urban areas of Abadan and Khorramshahr in Arvand boundaries and the drawing of Anzali limits.

According to the plan, Anzali is expected to develop complimentary industries for agricultural, industrial, and cultural products and Aras is duty-bound to boost export-oriented production.

The most strategic region in southern Iran is also obliged to develop trade and commercial services, safeguarding the southern waters after years through trade and transit of goods instead of military options.

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Old Tuesday, April 25, 2006
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Post China gives Loan to Pakistan for Deep Seaport.

Pakistan, China Sign $118m Loan for Gwadar Project

BEIJING: China and Pakistan signed an agreement here on Thursday under which the Exim Bank of China will provide $118 million to Pakistan for construction of Gwadar Deep Seaport.

Chairman Exim Bank Yang Zilin signed the agreement, while Pakistan’s side was represented by Riaz Muhammad Khan, Pakistan’s ambassador to China.

Official sources told APP that the total financial package to be provided by China for the Gwadar project is $198 million, which includes a grant of $49 million, and $31 million interest free credit.

It was also agreed that the two sides would take all necessary steps ensuring timely completion of the project.

"The Gwadar project will be another landmark and a shining example of Sino-Pak friendship and their cooperation in various sectors,” said the Pakistani ambassador while speaking at the signing ceremony here at the State Guest House.

He said President Pervez Musharraf and Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji are taking personal interest in the construction of the Gwadar Port.

Mr Khan said the Gwadar seaport is very significant, not only for Pakistan’s economic progress but also for development of trade links with Central Asian States.

The ambassador also referred to China’s assistance in some other major pubic sector projects in Pakistan like, White Pipeline, Saindak copper and gold project, Thar coal project and the modernization of Pakistan Railways.

Chairman Exim Bank, Yang Zilin in his remarks said the Bank would continue to take active part in the development of Pakistan. He said the Chinese leaders attached great importance to the economic development of Pakistan and wished to strengthen the bilateral cooperation for the welfare of their people.

The construction of the first phase of Gawadar Deep Seaport has been undertaken by China Harbour Engineering Company Group (CHEC) on Build Operate Transfer basis. It is scheduled to be completed by 2005 in two phases.

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Post Oman has offered $100 million aid

Oman has offered $100 million aid for the development of social and infrastructure facilities in Balochistan. Out of $100million, Oman has provided $7million for extending of runway at Gwadar Airport, construction of jetties, upgradation of Gwadar Hospital, provision of 100 engines to fishermen and construction of power house. Oman is also financing construction of Gwadar-Hoshab Road, water supply scheme in Gwadar area and construction of irrigation dams.
Pakistan and Oman have signed a number of agreements including Avoidance of Double Taxation, Promotion and Protection of Investment, Cultural, Technical and Educational Cooperation, Agreement on cooperation between Oman Chamber of Commerce and Industry and FPCCI, Maritime Boundary Agreement and Agreement to establish Pak-Oman Joint Investment Company.

The proximity of Oman is an asset to Pakistan. Around 70,000 Pakistani citizens are participating in the development of Oman. Omani assistance for construction of Gwadar Port would go a long way in promoting economic relations between Gwadar-Pakistan and Central Asian States.

Pakistan through networking of roads is linking Gwadar with Karachi and the north to enable the Central Asian States to use Gwadar as a port for their trade. Water supply is being improved, seven jetties are being constructed and local fishermen are being given motor engine run boats. The local hospital is also being upgraded.

A number of electric power generation projects are also being carried out in Gwadar and in its surroundings. The Quetta Electric Supply Company (QESCO), a subsidiary of the Wapda, has geared up the work for building the power transmission line. It is expected to be completed soon.


Airport

Gwadar has a small airport which is basically meant for fokker aircraft. The need is growing for the expansion of this airport and enlargement of its runway to facilitate the landing of wide body aero-planes. CAA has been directed to upgrade the Gwadar Airport for the landing of Airbuses by the end of 2004. Gwadar port will be open air and after its inauguration the jet planes shall be landing at the Gwadar airport. A sum of 2.3 million dollars is being utilized from Omani grant. The Pakistan government and the Civil Aviation Authority are also contributing additional Rs563.35 million for this purpose.


Dry port:

China wants to set up a dry port near the Pakistan-China border, so that western China could also benefit from the Gwadar seaport and it will create a ribbon of economic activity and hundreds of new jobs along the proposed highway linking Gwadar with the Karakoram highway in the north.

Rice Zone

Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP)-apex body of the rice exporters in the country- has decided to establish a rice zone in Gwadar to fetch the oppertunities in the area after the construction of new port. The establishment of warehouses will provide extraordinary facilities to rice exporters especially for those who export rice to iran as the Iranian border is only at a distance of three hours from Gwadar.


Saindak Copper Gold

The Saindak Copper Gold project is likely to start production in june 2003 by producing 12500 tons 'raw copper' daily. MRDL, a chinese company, is doing the whole work. To ensure successful implementation of the mega project modern machinery, including crushers, smelters and other plants have been installed in addition to a 50 MW power-house. 33 km railway line from Taftan to Saindak has also been laid. The Chinese company MRDL has so far invested $25 million (Rs 1.5 billion) on the project.
Trans-Afghan Gas Pipeline

The 1400km-long Trans-Afghan Gas Pipeline (TAP) from Turkemenistan to Gwadar(Pakistan), the long dormant project that hopes to pump Turkmen natural gas to markets in South Asia, is finally poised to step off the drawing board costing $3 billion.

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Old Tuesday, April 25, 2006
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Post Gwadar's strategic importance

Ever since the creation of Pakistan, China has been clearly Pakistan's strongest supporter in the military, economic and diplomatic fields. The relationship has transcended major changes in both governments.

The people of Pakistan have demonstrated a sustained pro-China sentiment that has further strengthened the bonds. China has been an invaluable external source of military equipment and technologies to Pakistan, especially during the period when the United States and other countries imposed sanctions on this country.

Over the years a large number of collaborative projects in the field of defense have been completed that include manufacture of tanks, guns, missiles, patrol boats, communication equipment's, trainer and fighter aircraft and construction of nuclear power plants.

The Karakoram Highway linking the Chinese Xinjiang province is another landmark project between the two countries. Islamabad considers China a strategic partner and the Chinese have characterized their relationship with Pakistan as constructive partnership.

Semantics aside, maintaining a close relationship with an ascending power and close neighbor has always appealed to Pakistan's policy-makers across the political spectrum.

On the other hand, China recognizes Pakistan's geo-strategic importance, its eminence among the Muslim countries and its usefulness as an ally at the international forums. With the two countries enjoying such good relations it is no surprise that they have engaged in the development of the Gwadar port project.

The new port of Gwadar will supplement Karachi port and its Port Qasim extension, which was constructed in the late eighties. Karachi port handles nearly 50 million tons of cargo annually and with Pakistan's economy expected to grow at a minimum of six per cent annually, the volume of trade is projected to be around 75 million tons in the year 2015. The government has undertaken expansion programs at both ports to enable them meet the growing demand of trading and commercial activity.

Nonetheless, there is still need for an additional seaport to handle peak season overflow of incoming and outgoing sea cargo and to cater to the transit traffic flowing from Central Asian states and Afghanistan.

Equally significant is the defense requirement to repair and rebuild the redundant portion of the communication infrastructure. A single port complex is vulnerable during times of crisis or war.

The Gwadar project came about as a result of a Sino-Pakistan agreement in March 2002, under which China Harbor Construction Corporation will build the port. Beijing has provided $198 million for the first phase of the project and Islamabad's contribution has been $ 50 million. The scope of phase-1 includes construction of three multi-purpose berths each 200 meters long and capable of handling vessels up to 30,000 DWT.

As work is progressing satisfactorily, the first phase should be completed by early 2005. Phase two is planned for development by the private sector at an estimated cost of $600 million and envisages the development of ten more berths and a five kilometer approach channel and will take vessels up to 50,000 DWT.

By virtue of its excellent location, Gwadar port is also visualized to become a regional hub serving incoming and outgoing commercial traffic of the Middle Eastern and Gulf countries, the Xinjiang province of China, Iran in the west and Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in the south and east.

Its location at the mouth of the Gulf and at the opposite end of the strategic choke points of Straits of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman enhances its strategic importance. Its development could favorably influence the geo strategic environment of the region and have an overall beneficial impact on Pakistan.

Additionally, the port should facilitate efficient exploitation of the exclusive economic zone of Pakistan, which so far has remained largely unexplored. The area is rich in fisheries and if the 600-kilometre long coastal line is fully exploited it could give a big boost to fish and crab exports and promote food-processing industries. Lying in the vicinity of oil-rich Gulf states, Gwadar could also be a potential source of offshore gas and oil exploration.

The existing highways on the Afghan border, connecting the border towns of Chaman and Torkham provide the shortest all-weather road and rail links to Gwadar. These will have to be brought up to international standards if the part's potential of becoming a major economic and commercial centre is to be realized. Pakistan is already developing the road and highway network connecting Gwadar with its own major cities and ports through the 700-mile Mekran Coastal Highway.

The development of a comprehensive network of roads and other communication infrastructure would call for a lot of investment and would take a few years to complete. Similarly, rail and air services will have to be developed between Gwadar and other important commercial centres in Pakistan.

The development of the Gwadar port should benefit the overall economy of Balochistan and unlock its potential. Regrettably, the people of the area, and more so the tribal leaders, are not enthusiastic about the project and in fact some are actively opposing it.

Their fears are that outsiders, whether foreign or domestic, will undertake development work and threaten the identity and livelihood of the local inhabitants. Tribal leaders, who have monopolized power in this backward province are apprehensive of losing their hold over the people when the project materializes.

This would entail building consensus through a sustained and well-coordinated political process and winning the confidence of the local people. It is unfortunate that the government had given a low priority to this important aspect in the past. Moreover, Islamabad should also ensure that the short-term interests of the land mafia and other vested groups do not damage the genuine interests of the Baloch people.

As of now, most of the infrastructural development is related to coastal roads and linking Gwadar with Karachi. The government should pay equal if not greater attention to developing road and rail links from Gwadar to the hinterland of Balochistan so that the Balochs equally share the benefits of development.

Benefit of the Gwadar port is also directly linked to the stability in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Another prerequisite would be the physical infra-structural development in these countries. Linking Torkhum-Jalalabad and Chaman-Kandahar roads with modern highways will be in the mutual long-term interests of both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

According to some sources, Beijing also intends to take advantage of Gwadar's accessible international trade routes to Central Asian republics and Xinjiang. The plan envisages extending China's east-west railway from the border city of Kashi to Peshawar.

The incoming and outgoing cargo from Gwadar can then be delivered to China through the shortest route from Karachi to Peshawar. The same road and rail network can also be used for the supply of oil from the Gulf to the western provinces of China.

Additionally, China could also gain rail and road access to Iran through Pakistan's internal road and rail network. Use of Gwadar port by China should accelerate the growth and development of the port and the hinterland and enhance its overall commercial and strategic value.

The Chinese have all along denied that the joint project of Gwadar has any military dimension and have stressed that it is a civilian port, but being a major importer of oil from the Gulf and mostly routed through this sea-lane it has a justifiable interest in having secure and uninterrupted flow of oil.

Occasional goodwill visits by its naval vessels and increased trade and commercial activity with Pakistan are likely to raise Chinese profile in the Arabian Sea.

As a matter of policy, China has always assisted Pakistan in strengthening its defence capability. Beijing's involvement in the Gwadar sea port is primarily motivated by commercial considerations, but it also perhaps sees the advantages accruing to Pakistan and its own navy for having a friendly port of call close to the Gulf region.

Together with this when a reliable network of road and rail links is established, it could benefit both Pakistan and China commercially as well as strategically.

From a defence perspective, Pakistan Navy would find it easier to operate closer to the Gulf. During times of crisis it could move its naval assets farther from any Indian naval and air threat.

In the event of an unfortunate war, the port of Gwadar would provide strategic depth to Pakistan's commercial and military vessels and be in a relatively advantageous position to operate against the Indian Navy. Gwadar is, however, well within the range of land-air and sea-based Indian missiles.

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Old Tuesday, April 25, 2006
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Post The Emerging Cold War on Asia's High Seas

DEFENCE & ARMS

By Chietigj Bajpaee, OINR 13/2/06 http://www.pinr.com
Feb 13, 2006, 12:42
After an initial lull in piracy attacks following the Asian tsunami, which devastated coastal communities and resulted in an increased naval military presence in the region, attacks have resumed. With 60,000 vessels transiting through the Straits each year, carrying half of the world's oil supplies and a third of world trade, the stakes are high in maintaining stability along these sea-lanes.

The vulnerability of the Straits has been heightened by the presence of a multitude of Islamic insurgencies and separatist movements in the region, existing in Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia. There is also a fear of the Straits emerging as a security "black hole" with the use of the waters to engage in arms, narcotics and human trafficking, which has been highlighted by the periodic discovery of arms shipments headed to the Tamil Tigers (L.T.T.E.) in Sri Lanka, terrorist organizations in Bangladesh and separatist groups in northeast India.

The growing fear of terrorist groups taking to the water has also been highlighted by the attacks in Yemen on the USS Cole in 2000 and the French-owned supertanker MV Limburg in 2002, along with the bombing of a ferry in the Philippines by the Abu Sayyaf group in February 2004. In March 2003, an Indonesian chemical tanker was hijacked for an hour while its equipment and technical documents were stolen. It is believed that this incident may have been a training exercise for a future terrorist attack.

It would be relatively easy to cripple shipping along the Malacca Straits given that the 1,015 kilometer-long (630 miles) channel is just 2.4 kilometers (1.5 miles) wide at its narrowest point. There is a fear that an oil tanker could be used as a floating bomb and piloted into a port city such as Singapore. The decision by the London-based Lloyd's Market Association's Joint War Committee group to classify the Malacca Straits as a "war risk" in June 2004 has further highlighted the threat of piracy and terrorism along the strait. [See: "The Malacca Straits and the Threat of Maritime Terrorism"]

There has been a proliferation of initiatives by littoral and extra-regional states to secure the Straits. Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand have agreed to conduct joint air and sea patrols as part of the Malacca Straits Security Initiative (M.S.S.I.). Every year at regional forums such as the A.S.E.A.N. Regional Forum and the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies-sponsored Shangri La Dialogue, extra-regional states such as Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and the United States offer to play a greater role in securing the Straits. However, littoral states such as Indonesia and Malaysia are reluctant to accept external assistance. Even private security organizations have become involved in the act by offering their services to ships transiting the region.

Maritime Territorial Disputes and the Competition for Naval Supremacy

Nevertheless, the race to secure the Straits has highlighted a new, potentially more destructive threat on Asia's sea-lanes as a result of growing competition for naval supremacy in the region. This inter-state naval posturing has been fueled by the importance of the waters for international trade, as well as the presence of a series of long-standing maritime territorial disputes and reports of oil and gas deposits in the disputed waters of the region. Furthermore, while these territorial disputes are over tangible resources, many of them are rooted in intangible issues of national identity.

For instance, in early 2005, relations between Indonesia and Malaysia hit a low when tensions flared over a territorial dispute in the Sulawesi Sea sparked by Malaysia awarding oil exploration rights in an offshore oil field in the disputed territory. A war of words ensued with racist slurs and Sukarno-era anti-Malaysian slogans accompanied by protests, attacks on Malaysian websites and the deployment of military aircraft and naval vessels to the disputed region.

Another long-standing maritime territorial dispute in the South China Sea concerns the Spratly and Paracel Islands. The Paracel chain, which has been occupied by China since 1974, is also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan while the Spratly chain is claimed partially by the Philippines, Brunei, and Indonesia, and is claimed in their entirety by Vietnam, Taiwan and China. Relations between China and A.S.E.A.N. have improved in recent years with China signing onto A.S.E.A.N.'s Treaty of Amity of Friendship and Cooperation in 2003 and all sides signing the Declaration of the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in 2002.

China also began joint exploration of the disputed territory with the Philippines and Vietnam in March 2005 following the signing of the Agreement on Joint Marine Seismic Work in the Agreed Region of the South China Sea. Nevertheless, tensions remain. In violation of the 2002 agreement, five states have permanent military garrisons on the atolls in addition to surveillance facilities under the guise of "bird-watching" towers, weather huts and tourist facilities. The fact that Taiwan is not a signatory to any of these agreements is also a cause for concern.

Maritime inter-state friction is not limited to the waters of Southeast Asia. Across the region, a series of maritime territorial disputes have flared up in recent months prompting regional and international powers to augment their naval power projection capabilities. Japan has three significant maritime territorial disputes with South Korea, Russia and China over the Takeshima/Dokdo (or Tokdo) islets, the South Kuriles/Northern Territories and the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, respectively. Japan's emergence as a "normal" country is linked to its ability to resolve these territorial disputes and to its military playing a more significant role in regional security.

The territorial dispute in the Sea of Japan, which South Korea refers to as the East Sea, is over the Takeshima/Dokdo (or Tokdo) islets. The seas around the islets, which are currently occupied by South Korea, are rich fishing grounds and possibly possess natural gas and mineral deposits. Emotions in South Korea flared when a vote in Japan's Shimane Prefecture Council in February 2005 declared February 22 as "Takeshima Day." This resulted in protests across South Korea and increased South Korean military patrols and civilian tours in the disputed territory. [See: "The Importance of Strong Relations Between Japan and South Korea"]

Japan's relations with Russia have also been strained, as both states have not signed a formal peace treaty ending the hostilities of World War II due to a territorial dispute over the South Kuriles or Northern Territories. This tension is undermining cooperation in the energy sphere. Russia had given the go ahead to construct an oil pipeline from Taishet to the Pacific port of Nakhodka on the Sea of Japan over a route favored by China to Daqing in northeast Heilongjiang Province. However, Russian-Japanese friction over the territorial dispute has delayed construction and forced Russia to consider building a branch of the pipeline to China first.

The territorial dispute between China and Japan over the demarcation of the East China Sea includes the Diaoyu or Senkaku islands and the Chunxiao, Duanqiao and Tianwaitian oil and gas fields (known as Shirakaba, Kusunoki and Kashi in Japanese). Japan regards the median line as the boundary of its Exclusive Economic Zone, while China claims jurisdiction over the entire continental shelf. Although the fields are on the Chinese side of the median line, Japan claims that China may be siphoning energy resources from the Japanese side. While both sides have agreed to discuss the option of joint development, neither side is able to agree on what territory to jointly develop.

A military dimension has been added to this dispute; a Chinese naval destroyer took aim at a Japanese military P3-C surveillance aircraft near the disputed waters in September 2005, and a Chinese nuclear-powered submarine entered Japanese waters off the Okinawa Islands in November 2004. On a number of occasions, Chinese research vessels have also intruded into Japanese waters without giving prior notification.

Resolving this dispute is becoming increasingly difficult given China's and Japan's long-standing tensions over Japan's wartime legacy and recent frictions over China's opposition to Japan's bid for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council, visits by Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to the Yasukuni Shrine, and the publication of a Japanese textbook that allegedly whitewashes Japanese wartime atrocities. The fact that the disputed territory may possess oil and gas deposits, and that China and Japan are the world's second and third largest oil importers respectively, presents a further element of difficulty in resolving their territorial dispute. A volatile combination is being created by a tangible dispute over territory rich in energy resources and intangible disputes rooted in historical rivalry.

China's Naval Ambitions and Military Modernization

Coupled with the presence of these long-standing territorial disputes, regional powers are modernizing their militaries as the prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region translates into expanding defense expenditures. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the case of China, which has been gradually expanding its blue water naval capabilities.

China's core maritime interest in the region is to develop a sufficient force to deter Taiwan's declaration of independence, deter and delay U.S. involvement in a potential conflict over Taiwan, and ensure a swift victory in a conflict over the island. Beijing is also interested in securing the narrow Malacca Straits, through which 80 percent of China's oil imports flow, and resolving long-standing maritime territorial disputes in the region.

While the issue of Taiwan is the primary driver of China's naval military modernization, the accomplishment of its primary goal is not mutually exclusive to achieving its secondary goals. Some Chinese military analysts have highlighted that control of Taiwan would allow China to expand its maritime defense perimeter, increase its control over sea lines of communication and expand its naval power projection capabilities. As General Wan Zongren, Political Commissar of the P.L.A. Academy of Military Science, has stated, the Taiwan Strait dispute is of "far reaching significance to breaking the international forces' blockade against China's maritime security…Only when we break this blockade shall we be able to talk about China's rise."

China's surface fleet presently comprises 64 vessels including 21 destroyers and 43 frigates, while its underwater fleet consists of 57 vessels including 51 diesel submarines and six nuclear powered attack submarines. Beijing is in the process of replacing obsolete ships with the acquisition of Russian Sovremenny-class destroyers and Kilo-class submarines, and the construction of 052B- and 052C-class guided missile destroyers, 039 and 039A diesel submarines and type 093 and 094 nuclear-powered submarines. China has also expressed an interest in acquiring an aircraft carrier, which is not directly linked to the Taiwan Strait dispute and has more to do with naval power projection beyond the East China Sea. [See: "The Modernization of the Chinese Navy"]

China has adopted a multi-pronged approach in expanding its naval presence in the region. Apart from importing military hardware, China has also been integrating its civilian and military infrastructure. For example, China now has the world's third largest shipbuilding industry, which accounts for ten percent of the global market in terms of dead weight ton production with many merchant shipyards co-located with military shipyards. China's recent launch of its first domestically built liquefied natural gas carrier in December 2005 also demonstrated the increasing sophistication of China's shipbuilding abilities.

China is also pushing to acquire a national fleet of Very Large Crude Carriers that could be employed in the case of supply disruptions brought on by an accident or terrorist attack along the Malacca Straits or a U.S.-led blockade during a conflict over Taiwan. Currently, only ten percent of China's crude oil imports come aboard Chinese vessels. China's growing anxiety over the security of its oil imports was demonstrated in June 2004 when China conducted its first anti-terrorism exercise simulating an attack on an oil tanker.

China has also assisted in the development of port facilities in the region in order to bypass chokepoints such as the Straits of Malacca and Hormuz in case of disruptions caused by accidents or conflict along the waterways. This "String of Pearls" strategy, as it has been characterized, has been demonstrated by China's development of port facilities at Gwadar in Pakistan, at Akyab, Cheduba and Bassein in Myanmar, at the Coco Islands, and at Chittagong in Bangladesh.

Additionally, China is investing in the construction of a canal across the Kra Isthmus linking the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Siam while pursuing an improving relationship with Sri Lanka in an attempt to gain access to the deep water port of Trincomalee and fortifying its naval facilities on Hainan Island. Beyond expanding China's naval power reach, these port facilities offer alternative overland routes for China to import resources, most notably energy supplies.

The port facility in Gwadar offers China the ability to link the Arabian Sea with the markets and raw materials of Afghanistan, Central Asia and China's Xinjiang Province. Construction on the port began in 2002, although it has been delayed by an ongoing insurgency in the Baluchistan region, which has included attacks on Chinese nationals working on the project. The Sino-Pakistani project is competing with an India-Iran project to jointly develop the Iranian port at Chabahar as well as the road linking the port to Afghanistan and Central Asia. It has also fueled fears in India of its encirclement by China. [See: "China's Strategy of Containing India"]

The Indian Navy has countered these moves by setting up a Far Eastern Naval Command (F.E.N.C.) facility off Port Blair on the Andaman Islands. F.E.N.C. can monitor China's naval activities in the region and expand India's naval power projection capabilities into the Malacca Straits and the South China Sea region. [See: "India's Project Seabird and the Indian Ocean's Balance of Power"]

Finally, China has manipulated history in order to justify its expanding maritime interests. Just as China's claim over the ancient kingdom of Koguryo offers justification for future intervention in the Korean peninsula, so China's increasing attention to the voyages of Admiral Zheng He in the early 15th century may be an attempt to highlight China's historical claim to naval superiority in the region, and thus justify its current aspirations. The voyages of Zheng He may also be used to reassure regional powers of China's non-threatening ambitions since Zheng's voyages were not accompanied by an overt attempt to control states in the region, with the exception of a brief intervention in Ceylon (modern-day Sri Lanka).

There has been a tendency to exaggerate China's military capabilities given the low base from which it has been upgrading its strength and the lack of transparency regarding China's military spending and long-term strategic objectives. There is still a significant gap in China's military ambitions and capabilities as illustrated by the lack of a Chinese role in relief efforts following the South Asian tsunami in December 2004, which was in contrast with a significant Indian and U.S. presence in relief operations.

Nevertheless, an increasing Chinese naval presence in the region is likely to draw concern from littoral states, some of which have territorial disputes and historical rivalries with China. The United States also has cause for concern given that China's attempt to strengthen its naval power projection capabilities for the purpose of securing sea-lanes and chokepoints could be used against the United States during a conflict over Taiwan.

Conclusion

Since the September 11 attacks, it has become fashionable to cite the threats posed by non-state actors, including terrorist groups and transnational criminal organizations engaging in arms, people and narcotics trafficking. On the high seas, this has manifested itself with growing concern over piracy. However, in most cases the presence of a weak state fuels the influence of non-state armed groups. Whether it is the inability or unwillingness of the Indonesian government to police its waters that leads to the rise of piracy in the Malacca Straits, or the Taliban regime in Afghanistan providing safe haven to al-Qaeda, the root cause of most non-state security threats is a state providing intentional or inadvertent support.

While the threat of terrorism and piracy is apparent in Asia, it is the combination of long-standing maritime territorial disputes, growing nationalism and defense expenditures, and increasing resource and energy needs by countries in the region that is setting the stage for a more volatile situation on the high seas of the Asia-Pacific region.

Plz pray,
Sardarzada
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Post India Defence Consultants

WHAT'S HOT? –– ANALYSIS OF RECENT HAPPENINGS
COUNTERING CHINESE MARITIME AMBITIONS
By Sayan Majumdar*
New Delhi, 30 March 2005
Sayan Majumdar has portrayed a scenario of Chinese maritime expansion aims and what may happen in the event of a Sino-Indian conflict in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea regions, in the future. He then concludes that only the Indian Navy may be able to effectively counter the threat. Food for thought which our naval planners and national leadership should ponder.
In January 2005 the Washington Times had disclosed an internal report prepared for US Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld pointing to an ambitious Chinese plan to extend its maritime and naval influence beyond the South China Sea. The new area of influence encompassed the Indian Ocean to access the Middle East to project Chinese naval power overseas and protect its oill shipments. In initial “low key” measures China is seeking to use commercial port facilities around the world to control strategic ocean routes and "chokepoints”. The long term objective appears to be to militarily control oil shipping sea lanes. Already a Chinese company with close ties to Beijing's communist rulers holds long-term leases on port facilities at either end of the Panama Canal.
The “high-profile” Gwadar port in southwest Pakistan next to Iran is being built by China, which could well be China's outlet port for oil and gas from Central Asia. Beijing was swift to set up Electronic Support Measures (ESM) eavesdropping posts at Gwadar, capable of monitoring ship traffic through the strategically sensitive Straits of Hormuz and the Arabian Sea. Meanwhile at the eastern corner of the Indian subcontinent Bangladesh had been approached for naval and commercial access, with China building a container port facility at Chittagong.
In the words of Chinese President Hu Jintao, China faces a "Malacca Dilemma" or the vulnerability of its imported oil supply lines from the Middle East and Africa to possible blockage of United States Navy (USN) and its allies, in the event of any possible hostilities near the Malaysian archipelago and thus severely crippling China, by blocking its energy supply needs. Although alarming from the Indian strategic point-of-view, China has successfully turned Myanmar into a “satellite” by developing close ties and providing military assistance to the military regime. Myanmar is situated close to the Straits of Malacca, through which eighty percent of China's imported oil passes. Now buzzing with Chinese naval buildups and activities naval bases are being built and electronic intelligence gathering facilities are being constructed on islands in the Bay of Bengal and near the Straits of Malacca. Having already built up "listening posts" at strategic points, severe complications may arise for India, if China manages to deploy a sizable military force at Tenasserim, in assistance with Myanmar, to protect the interests of both itself and the military junta.
Recently China signed a military agreement with Cambodia in November 2003 to provide training and equipment, while Cambodia is helping Beijing to build a railway line from southern China to the sea. for rapid movement of troops and logistics if necessary. In Thailand China is considering funding construction of a $20 billion canal across the Isthmus of Kra, which would allow ships to bypass the Straits of Malacca. The canal project will additionally provide China port facilities, warehouses and other infrastructure in Thailand. Interestingly, among the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states, Thailand and Myanmar are considered to be “close” to the Chinese leadership while the other members do view Chinese long term strategic aims with suspicion.
China is also building up its military forces in the South China Sea region for projection of air and naval power on the Chinese mainland and Hainan Island. Hainan came to international limelight in 2001, when one USN EP-3E Aries II ELINT platform on “routine duty” was compelled to force land on the island after colliding with and destroying a Chinese F-8 ‘Finback’ fighter aircraft. China recently upgraded a military airstrip on Woody Island and increased its presence through oil drilling platforms and ocean survey ships. The Chinese already dominate the Parcael and Spratly Islands from which the PLAN can move to the Indian Ocean through the Malacca, Sunda, Lombok and Sumba straits. The possession of Spratly Islands have developed into a potentially fierce point of conflict as three nations, China, Taiwan and Vietnam claim those island territories in totality with partial claims from Malaysia, Philippines and maritime claims from Brunei. Even if no significant Chinese surface combatants are deployed in and around the Indian Ocean in the near term, a couple of nuclear powered attack submarines my move in for semi-permanent deployment.
China has already received the first of eight Type 636 Russian Kilo Class “hunter-killer” Submarines (SSK). Designed for Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW), Anti-Surface unit Warfare (ASuW) and for general reconnaissance missions, the Type 636 submarine is considered to be one of the quietest SSKs in the world, with an impressive array of sensors and matching weapons. By 2010, the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is expected to number approximately seventy modern surface combatants; two to three ballistic-missile armed submarines (SSBN); and 20 to 30 modern attack submarines, perhaps six of them nuclear-powered (SSN). The Marine Corps, recently expanded from one to two brigades, may add a third unit although its assault mission will keep it tasked to the South and possibly the East Sea Fleets as they are relatively small and thinly spread. The Marine Corps incidentally is equipped with the finest of the Chinese armed forces “ground weapons” and its standard of training remains substantially higher than Peoples Liberation Army (PLA). The production and development of support vessels such as transport craft and landing ships was also being stepped up for transportation of men and materials in decent numbers to enhance strategic sealift capabilities for tackling any Taiwan related crisis.
A new generation of conventional and nuclear attack as well as missile submarines is being developed to replace the PLAN outdated Ming-class conventional powered patrol submarines (SS), first-generation Han Class SSN and Xia Class SSBN. The first hull of the new generation Type 093 SSN, which is equivalent to the USN early production Los Angeles Class SSN, is reported to have been launched with Russian help in the past year or so and is expected to enter service soon. More than six vessels of the indigenously developed Song-class SS have so far been built. The initial development of the Song encountered significant design and engineering problems, especially related to propulsion, but they appear to have been resolved and are now coming off the production lines at a rate of one annually. The PLAN is putting great emphasis on "undersea retaliatory capability to protect the sea lanes“ of its interests. Thus presently the emphasis is clearly on sea denial.
The Type 052C Lanzhou Class guided missile destroyer (DDG) has been developed by the Chinese shipbuilding industry and is equipped with stealth features and a long-range area air-defence Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) system that has been compared to the early models of the USN Ticonderoga Class AEGIS cruiser. The Type 052C shares the same hull design with the Type 052B constructed by the same shipyard, but its weapon systems and sensors are more advanced. The Type 052C features a range of newly developed systems including the HQ-9/S-300F area defence SAMs launched from the vertical launching system (VLS), the four-array multifunction phased array radar similar to the U.S. AN/SPY-1 AEGIS, and the YJ-85 (C-805) anti-ship missile.
The first ship of this class was delivered to the PLAN last summer and a second vessel was to be completed later this year. Their weapons systems are reported to be similar to the modified Soveremenyy Class DDG that PLAN had acquired from Russia delivered in December 1999 and November 2000. Two more DDG are due to be delivered in 2005 and 2006. In addition to the devastating 3M80E Moskit anti-ship missiles the Sovremennyy design has provided for the first time a decent area-defence SAM capability to the Chinese Navy in the shape of SA-N-7 ‘Gadfly‘ area defence SAM. Significantly, the Chinese aircraft designers are reported to be working on design of an aircraft carrier based fighter and thus may be logically deducted that in not too distant future the PLAN will opt for aircraft carries to establish local air superiority over high seas and conduct sustained strike missions against enemy coastal facilities and further inland.
The capabilities of the PLAAF also received a great boost with the induction of Sukhoi-30MKK multi-role air dominance fighters enabling the service to project for the first time in history a state-of-the-art air threat well in excess of 1,850-km (radius of action), thanks to buddy refueling sorties and stand-off missiles. The radius of action in course of time may be sufficiently boosted by induction if in-flight refueling (IFR) tankers. As things stand a total of 78 Sukhoi-30MKK variants are projected to enter PLAAF service with at least few examples moving to the PLAN command. The PLAAF and PLAN are also putting adequate stress on procurement of force-multipliers and target acquisition systems such as Airborne Warning & Control System (AWACS), optical satellites and maritime Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV). It is possible that China has converted some of their Russian origin Tupolev-16 ‘Badger’ medium bombers and Illyushin-76 ‘Candid’ freighters to In-Flight Refueling (IFR) platforms. In addition the PLAAF is clearly interested on the Illyushin-78 ‘Midas’ IFR tankers.
The Chinese maritime ambitions are bound to face serious challenges from a number of Asian and “overseas” nations possessing formidable maritime power unilaterally or as a “block”. After all the Chinese policy of “strategic expansion” and frequent switch between assertion and conciliation are widely viewed with strong suspicion. India's geographical position has permitted her to influence maritime traffic in the Indian Ocean that originates from the Persian Gulf or Straits of Hormuz or Cape of Good Hope towards the Far East. A significant amount of fossil fuel especially petroleum moves in these sea routes along with raw materials also essential for the developed Western World and Japan. No wonder the United States Navy keeps a heavy naval presence in the Indian Ocean Region in the form of the Seventh Fleet and is the undisputed strongest naval force in the Indian Ocean region.
In addition, one USN nuclear powered aircraft carrier (CVN) is permanently stationed in Yokosuka, Japan, to respond to possible contingencies. The British held island of Diego Garcia serves as an important strategic base for strike missions and pre-positioned stocks for the USN. The British Royal Navy and the French Marine Nationale (Navy) further cooperate with the USN. The French Navy itself possessed a small naval base at Saint Denis in Reunion Islands and have a separate Indian Ocean Theatre Command (ALINDIEN). Interestingly now there is enough indication of renewal of Japanese maritime ambitions in the Indian Ocean and West Pacific with projected construction of "Flat Tops" and a desire for out of area deployments. The resurgent Russian Navy will also in course of time maintain a heavy naval presence in the Indian Ocean usually as powerful detachments from Russian Black Sea and Pacific Fleets dominated by Udaloy Class ASW Destroyers like Admiral Vinogradov and Admiral Pantelyev. After all it is enormously economical and convenient to transport materials from "European Russia" to the Far East Russian landmass by the sea route than by Trans-Siberian Railway and the sea lanes need to be kept open.
Possibly as a counterbalance the Indian Navy and USN have already initiated active cooperation and joint patrolling in selected strategic areas of the Indian Ocean. The eastern periphery and narrow waterways around the Straits of Malacca seem to be the "favourite choice". An ASW patrol in the narrow waterways of various straits will keep track of surface and sub-surface movements and deployment from one operational area to another in addition to combating notorious piracy in the region. As a sign of significant expansion of ambitious cooperation, the Indian Navy has now geared up for deployment in the Persian Gulf region at least for limited periods and that too with a powerful Surface Action Group comprising of Delhi Class Destroyers and Talwar (Krivak III) Class Frigates with support ships.
For long-term strategic requirements and naval operations, it is perhaps high time to create a separate Indian Far East Naval Command for extensive operations in South-East Asia around the Straits of Malacca and South China Sea in active cooperation with United States and other allied littoral navies. Indeed this particular command will “draw in” heavy resources both in material and financial terms but the strategic advantages it will provide to the Indian political leadership and naval commanders will far outweigh its “resources”. Since the key potential military, industrial, commercial targets and related infrastructure of China are located along its east coast, they could be subjected to intensive air strikes by Indian Navy strike fighters operating from aircraft carriers and by cruise missiles fired from major surface and sub-surface combatants in the event of a failure of Sino-Indian dialogue and negotiations and outbreak of hostilities. These counter-force, counter-value and Suppression of Enemy Air Defence (SEAD) operations conducted “from sea” will be able to bypass the formidable Chinese network of terrestrial radars and integrated Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) systems at considerable length at the waypoints of high-value targets.
China has enjoyed the advantage of holding the “heights” on the Himalayan front and the presence of a “comfortable buffer” and strategic depth as against India, after the occupation of Tibet. Thus even the Indian Air Force strike missions with present force structure will remain at best limited to Chinese invasion routes in Tibet and southern China. Only a formidable and flexible naval presence in the South China Sea in active cooperation with allied navies will remove the geopolitical constraints and even in peacetime will present a robust political tool in the hands of Indian national leadership. The Indian presence around the Straits of Malacca and at South China Sea should comprise of at least one aircraft carrier, one nuclear powered ballistic missile firing submarine (SSBN), two multi-purpose nuclear “hunter-killer” attack submarines (SSN) capable of firing Land Attack Cruise Missiles (LACM) and associated major surface combatants and support ships. The access to United States and allied naval and air bases in the Pacific and pre-positioned naval stocks will prove vital. The French Marine Nationale also maintains a separate Pacific Ocean Theatre Command (ALPACI).

The design of the first unit of India’s indigenous Air Defence Ship (ADS) appears to have been frozen around the pristine Italian Cavour design. At DEFEXPO 04 in New Delhi the Italians displayed a model which had remarkable similarities with India’s ADS, and it evinced a lot of interest. The ship has the LM 2500 gas turbines, five bladed CPP propellers, one side lift and one lift forward and the ski ramp. A strong feature of the design is its high flexibility in operational terms. It is able to carry out the functions of an aircraft carrier as well as to transport wheeled and tracked vehicles, for an amphibious assault role. The design is also bound to be very useful in disaster management missions and may be equipped with extensive hospital facilities.
However for a projected Indian Naval commitment in East Asia the proposed second and third design should bear closer resemblance to the French Charles de Gaulle nuclear powered aircraft carrier (CVN) design, constructed for Marine Nationale at the DCN Brest naval shipyard in Brittany. Since operations in East Asia will considerably “stretch” the logistical capacity of the Indian Navy, the nuclear power option may be the preferred choice. Nuclear propulsion will also render these high-value capital warships relatively invulnerable for their ability to move and manoeuvre more freely, without excessive dependence on fleet replenishments during operations. With recent US intention to share know-how regarding peaceful use of nuclear energy the Indian political and naval leadership will do well to secure the relevant technologies of the “unlimited naval propulsion”.
Provision should be made for futuristic steam catapults or advanced electromagnetic aircraft launch-and-recovery systems alike EMALS (Electro-Magnetic Aircraft Launch System) being developed by Kaman Electromagnetics, alongside an internal-combustion catapult system fuelled by JP-5 jet fuel for the US CVNX project. This subject remains a hot topic at contemporary Naval Air Warfare Conferences. Such systems would permit the operation of a truly composite aircraft mix of fixed-wing airborne platforms of heavier air dominance fighters like Russian Sukhoi-33 (Sukhoi-27K) as well as fixed-wing AWACS platforms alike the US E-2C 'Hawkeye' that have considerably greater range and endurance than similar helicopter platforms. Fixed-wing AWACS platforms also have superior coverage of airspace, posses significant "overland" capability and more importantly have the ability to guide and control ship borne fighters towards their targets, an attribute the Airborne Early Warning (AEW) helicopter platforms like Kamov-31 lack. 'Hawkeye' operates from the French PAN/CVN 'Charles de Gaulle'.
The suggested operation of Russian Sukhoi-33 air dominance fighters assumes significance in light of two Indo–Russian jointly developed high-profile missiles, the PJ-10 BrahMos Anti-Ship Cruise Missile (ASCM) and possible follow-ups and the Novator R-172 ultra-long range Air-to-Air Missile (AAM). Only the Indian Air Force Sukhoi-30MKI is capable of carrying these two types of missiles to decisive effect in operations in our fighter inventory. Sukhoi-33, if operated by the Indian Navy in future, will be able to do the same. Designed to fulfil the Beyond Visual Range (BVR) role for “outer-air battles”, an aircraft usually of Sukhoi-27/30/33/35/37 “Flanker/Super Flanker” family, equipped with R-172 will be able to engage ultra-high-value airborne platforms like enemy AWACS, In-Flight Refueling (IFR) and Long Range Maritime Patrol (LRMP) platforms, without necessarily having first to deal with their fighter escorts. The attributes of the air-launched PJ-10 BrahMos will be discussed at later part of this article. For now it is sufficient to state that the Sukhoi-33/R-172/BrahMos combination will constitute a significant and much needed punch against the Chinese surface and airborne threats including Sukhoi-30MKK fighters and Sovremannyy and Lanzhou Class DDG.
The ADS should also be equipped with a formidable multi-tier SAM combination to defeat a full spectrum of air threats that range from low-flying strike aircraft to sea-skimming anti-ship missiles fired from both strike aircraft and significantly from submerged submarines, offering a far greater challenge. Since the European missile and smart munitions manufacturer MBDA now enjoys close co-operation with Indian defence industry, it may be logical to go for MBDA developed Principal Anti-Air Missile System (PAAMS) being developed for Franco-Italian Horizon class frigates, working with Empar C-band radar. PAAMS is a combination of vertically launched rapid reaction, active-radar Aster 15 and Aster 30 missiles. Aster 15 has a range of 1.7 to 30-km and is operational aboard French aircraft carrier 'Charles de Gaulle' with a combination of the Arabel X-band radar. Aster 30 in addition to self-defence has area defence capability with 3 to 100-km range.

An Anti-Tactical Ballistic Missile (ATBM) capable SAM is considered a prerequisite as aircraft-carrier battle groups, if detected, may invite nuclear ballistic missile strikes resulting in considerable damage. The French are working on an ATBM capable Aster version while the option of United States Standard SM-2 and follow on variants seems to be open. This ATBM system may be mounted on the ADS itself or on its "principal escort". Since the Indian Navy was opting for at least three ADS, at least one needs to be built abroad or acquired for swift induction in Indian Navy fleet.
While the SSBN in the shape of the indigenous Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) will provide the much needed nuclear deterrence against China with considerable effect if operated around South China Sea and armed with projected 2,500-km missiles, the multi-purpose SSNs like Akula II will enjoy the flexibility of operations along with the major surface combatants. The teeth of these platforms will be the supersonic PJ-10 BrahMos Anti-Ship Cruise Missile (ASCM) subsequently modified for diverse applications and launch platforms like warships, submarines, aircrafts and land-platforms. A joint venture between Indian DRDO and Russian NPO Mashinostroyeniya (NPO Mash) the air-launched version to be developed will have a smaller booster and additional tail fins for stability during launch. The missile with a low Radar Cross Section (RCS) will sport an Active Radar Homing (ARH) seeker to facilitate fire-and-forget launch while varieties of flight trajectories will complicate the task of the adversary. A 290-km long flight range with high supersonic (Mach 2.8) speed will lead to lower target dispersion and quicker engagement and higher destructive capability aided by the large kinetic energy of impact. In most of the cases the target warship will be denied sufficient time to react.
The BrahMos will turn out to be an even more deadly ASCM if the Indian software designers have by now matured the already formidable guidance system of the BrahMos predecessor SS-N-26 Yakhont which has accumulated all the NPO Mash experience in developing electronic systems of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Thus in case of a salvo launch a flock of BrahMos will be able to allocate and range targets by their importance and choose the attack implementation plan. The independent control system will take care of the Electronic Counter Measures (ECM) and Electronic Counter-Counter Measures (ECCM) data, and also the methods of evading the fire of the enemy's air defense systems. After destroying the main target in a CVBG or surface action group, the remaining missiles will destroy the other ships eliminating in the process the possibility of using two missiles on single target.
Of equal importance is the induction of an "extended range" BrahMos ASCM to further increase the stand-off distance and range as hinted. These missiles after-all offer the attraction of stand-off ranges and do not require launch platforms to enter hostile airspace or territory or operate close to the shore. Meanwhile as part of Alfa next-generation airborne reconnaissance and strike system, NPO Mash unveiled the Yakhont-M supersonic ASCM at the MAKS 2003 air show, that share elements with the PJ-10 BrahMos. The Yakhont-M is an air-launched ASCM intended for Sukhoi-30 multi-role fighters, Sukhoi-34 and Sukhoi-24M strike fighters with multi-sensor guidance, to engage surface ships and ground targets at up to 300-km. Reconnaissance and target acquisition would be provided by radar and electro-optical equipped Kondor low-Earth-orbit satellites. A passive radiation homing "extended range" BrahMos if developed, will fulfill an Indian Navy requirement of a formidable Suppression of Enemy Air Defence (SEAD) Land Attack Cruise Missile (LACM). LACMs especially submarine launched, are invaluable assets of any major navy, and are likely to be used in decimating enemy overland communications, command and control centres and powerful air defence installations before extensive barrage air attack followed by ground invasion if necessary. The USN has repeatedly demonstrated this concept in the past two decades over Middle East and Balkans with considerable success. It is one of the prime reasons for early accomplishments in operations and low US casualties.
Also the projected acquisition of Tupolev-22M3 (Backfire-C) for the Indian Navy is a significant step as the 'M3' version is designed for strategic bombing/maritime strike and entered service in Soviet Dalnaya Aviatsiya (DA) or Long-Range Aviation and AV-MF or Naval Aviation during early 1980s. In Indian Navy service its main weapon is projected to be the air-launched variant of supersonic Indo-Russian PJ-10 BrahMos Anti-Ship Cruise Missile (ASCM) and possibly a capability to carry nuclear bombs that Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and Bhaba Atomic Research Centre (BARC) say are available. If primary high speed reconnaissance role is also the peace time role intended, Tupolev-22MR is the alternative choice since the 'MR' version carries a giant Side Looking Airborne Radar (SLAR) in what was previously the internal bomb bay. The ’MR’ version also has a large dielectric fairing at the root of the vertical fin along with dielectric fairings on the fuselage.
The Tupolev-22M ‘Backfire’ is a multi-mission strike platform capable of performing low-level nuclear strike and conventional attack, anti-ship strike and high-seed reconnaissance missions. Powered by two Kuznetsov NK25 turbofan engines they have an unrefuelled range of at least 7,000-km+ at high altitude. This impressive range can be optimally utilized if one-way missions can be flown against the target nations or In-Flight Refueling (IFR) is applied. The maximum speed can reach 2300-km/h at high altitude with 12 tons of strike ordnance carried externally. A single air launched cruise missile can be carried in semi-recessed form to reduce drag. There is also presence of at least one internal rotary launcher.
The radar is speculated to be of the missile guidance ‘Down Beat’ family. In Soviet DA and AV-MF service the Tupolev-22M ‘Backfire’ carried the most formidable avionics and Electronic Warfare (EW) suite and were feared and respected by the adversaries. Most of the EW suites were “flush mounted” and thus not optically apparent and did not hamper aerodynamic performance. During the height of Cold War the ‘Backfire’ achieved notoriety in NATO eyes for repeated simulated launch of cruise missiles against the NATO Aircraft-Carrier Battle Groups (CVBG) and penetrating the formidable Japanese air-defence network at will. These were bound to be carefully planned Electronic Intelligence (ELINT)/ferret missions and tactics to test and record NATO Strike Fleet and Japanese air defence tactics and procedures. Operating from forward bases in the European Landmass the Soviet Tupolev-22Ms were active over North Atlantic as far as Azores and were considered a significant threat to NATO surface Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) barriers in the key areas such as Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gaps. Operating from bases in the far-east the ‘Backfire’ were active over North Pacific and it was projected that if air bases were made available in South or Central American Marxist influenced Nations “one-way” strategic “over Artic” missions could be flown against the United States.
Thus amply apparent, operating from centrally located Indian Naval Bases with benefit of IFR, the Tupolev-22M3 will be well capable of delivering strategic punch throughout the Asian landmass and water bodies and beyond. However ‘Backfire’s exported/leased to third world nations lacked the sophisticated avionics and EW suite and the Indian Navy would do well to integrate European/Israeli radar, avionics and detection systems with the Indian Navy’s Tupolev-22M3s. The Russians are also projecting an upgraded Tupolev-22M5 version with new radar, avionics, Electronic Warfare (EW) and navigation systems and the Indian Navy may choose to evaluate them.
Indian Navy Tupolev-22M in addition should carry the high-speed Kh-31 (AS-17 ‘Krypton‘) Anti-Radar Missile (ARM) first tested in 1982, for SEAD role. The formidable missile is first accelerated by a solid-fuel rocket engine to a speed of Mach 1.8. Thereafter, the module is discarded and the interior of the missile is converted into the combustion chamber of the missile’s jet engine as four air-intake holes on the sides of the missile body open up accelerating the missile to almost Mach 4.5. Providing very little reaction time to enemy air-defence networks the 200-km ranged Kh-31 will be able to effectively destroy enemy air defence installations comprising of radar and Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) sites on the way to its prime targets. In this respect the Kh-31 fulfills the role of United States Air Force (USAF) AGM-161 SRAM or the Russian Kh-15 (AS-16 Kickback) although the USAF and Russian inventory weapons are fitted with nuclear warheads.
The dedicated reconnaissance variant Tupolev-22MR can conduct aerial reconnaissance from a great slant distance without having to over-fly its intended 'targets', thanks to the SLAR. However, prudence dictates that the Indian Navy should settle for at least three "compact" squadrons (6 to 10 aircraft each) of the Tupolev-22M3/M5/MR in appropriate mix. Since START 2 (Strategic Arms Reduction Talks) had debarred the 'Backfire' from carrying nuclear weapons, there may not be any shortage of 'surplus' in Russia. The Russian 37th Strategic Air Army comprising of the 22nd Guards Red Banner Donbass Heavy Bomber Division and the 79th Guards Heavy Bomber Division is more obsessed with upgradation of its Tupolev-160 'Blackjack' and Tupolev-95MS6/MS16 'Bear' fleets and testing and induction of Kh-101 and Kh-65 ALCM.
The Tupolev-22M fleet will join the Indian Navy Illyushin-38 MR/ASW platforms undergoing Morskoy Zmei (Sea Dragon) multi-mission avionics and electronic warfare suite updates designed by Leninets to Illyushin-38SD standard. The fully digital Sea Dragon suite is designed to detect and intercept surface vessels and submarines within a range of 150-km, as well as detect mines and carry out surveillance. The suite can also detect airborne targets and can be linked to the Russian GLONASS satellite navigation system. It encompasses a new Synthetic-Aperture/Inverse-Synthetic-Aperture Radar (SAR/ISAR) located in a canoe fairing on the belly, a high-resolution Forward-Looking Infra-Red (FLIR) sensor, a Low-Light Television (LLTV) camera, a new Electronic-Support-Measures (ESM) system and a new Magnetic Anomaly Detector (MAD) system in the aft section of the aircraft. The Illyushin-38SDs will also be fitted with radio-frequency and infrared sensors, as well as decoys. If everything goes well according to plans the Indian Navy MR/ASW platforms will be further augmented by the United States Lockheed Martin P-3C plus Orions with their additional highly sophisticated ESM gear and Command, Communications, Control and intelligence facilities.
Peacetime traditionally have very little effect in the deployment and operational role of MR/ASW platforms. The task of multi-national naval cooperation on operational theatre will thus fall on Indian Navy MR/ASW platforms while monitoring surface and sub-surface vessels in and around the Indian Ocean as a way of providing early warning of possible confrontation or conflict and distribution of naval units. Usually these roles will be multi-national affairs between India, United States and possibly Japan with data and information transmitted and shared between MR/ASW platforms of several nations for constant monitoring of surface and sub-surface naval activities. It is apparent that in future budgetary reallocations in defence sector are critical for the crucial naval build up. Awareness should be created that naval dominance brings along with it increased security and economic prosperity to the nation in favourable proportions. The exploits of Great Britain during the last century serve as a good example.
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Post Indian Ocean and our Security

PATRON Lt Gen (Retd) SARDAR F.S. LODI analyses the effect of the Indian Ocean on our security
It was Admiral Alfred T. Mahan (1840-1914) of the United States Navy who is reported to have said that who ever attains maritime supremacy in the Indian Ocean would be a prominent player on the international scene. Admiral Mahan was a great Naval strategic thinker and historian who was in many ways the Naval equivalent of the Army's Clausewitz (General Karl Von Clausewitz of Germany). It was in 1890 that Mahan wrote the famous treatise on 'The influence of Sea Power upon History, 1660-1783' that changed Naval thinking in the United States.
The Indian Ocean is the third largest Ocean in the World with an area of 73,500,000 sq. km or 28,350,500 sq. miles. Its greatest depth is the Java Trench South of Java with a depth of 7725 m or 25,344 ft. It touches Asia in the North, Australia to the East, Antarctica to the South and Africa to the West. Its southern boundary is an arbitrary line drawn from Cape Agulhas on the southern tip of South Africa to South Tasmania in South-East Australia. Unlike the Atlantic and Pacific, most of the Indian Ocean lies south of the Equator. The Indian Ocean forms two large indentations in the Southern coast of Asia, the Arabian Sea in the West and the Bay of Bengal in the East.
Many rivers empty into the Indian Ocean, the major ones being the Zambezi and Limpopo rivers from Mozambique in East Africa; the Shatt al Arab from Iraq into the Persian Gulf; Indus from Pakistan into the Arabian Sea; the Ganges and Brahmaputra from Bangladesh along with the Irrawaddy from Burma into the Bay of Bengal.
The Indian Ocean has played a pivotal role in the history and indeed the destiny of its littoral states in East Africa, Middle East and South and South-East Asia. These states had neither the will nor the sea-faring tradition to dominate the Ocean, which was to their disadvantage in the long run and was to cost them their freedom of manoeuvre, trade and commerce and eventually their freedom.
Historically the peoples of South Asia did not have a great sea-faring background. The sea crossing from India to Sri Lanka was considered a great achievement. The Hindu Brahminic tradition of ancient India led to a prohibition of maritime trade and intercourse, resulting in a form of land isolationism. It was the Arab Muslims with a sea-faring tradition who came by sea and settled in Sindh and established their settlements and community development all along the West coast of India. Later taking advantage of the south-eastern trade winds they ventured further and settled in Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines. Their expansion was in direct proportion to their command of the sea in the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean. Their decline was apparent when their command of the sea started to falter and fail.
It was to a large extent the Arab Muslims along with the Jews and the Parsis from Persia who brought the benefits of maritime trade along with the economic and social progress to a class ridden Brahmin dominated social structure of India. The modern history of India prior to the advent of British rule, is not entirely that of Islamic expansion through force of arms but also the story of maritime trade pursued by a sea-faring people. It was the Islamic expansion and hegemony in the East which was driven by the growth and development of a world economy of the time based in and around the Indian Ocean with India at its centre and the Middle East and China as its two dynamic poles.
With the decline of Arab sea power the Muslim expansion into India continued from Central Asia. Their main strategic concern was defence of land frontiers particularly in the north to prevent further incursions. The sea-coast and the Ocean beyond was ignored, with fatal consequences later on.
It was Admiral Mahan who emphasized this point very well when he said, 'It must however be admitted, and will be seen, that the wise or unwise action of individual men has at certain periods had a great modifying influence upon the growth of Sea Power in the broad sense, which includes not only the military strength afloat, that rules the sea or any part of it by force of arms, but also the peaceful commerce and shipping from which alone a military fleet naturally and healthfully springs, and on which it securely rests'.
With Muslim India's lack of interest in maritime affairs, the Indian Ocean was completely ignored. This paved the way for the European Navies to enter the area. This dominance by the outside maritime powers eventually resulted in the subjugation of all the littoral states of the Indian Ocean, in Africa, Middle East, South Asia and South East Asia, which was to last over the centuries. After independence of these states this foreign dominance of the Indian Ocean is being increasingly challenged by the Indian Navy which has been built-up into a most formidable maritime force.
The great Oceans of the world have at least two or more littoral states with both maritime and economic strength to provide a power-balance. But in the Indian Ocean it is only India among its littoral states which alone has the economic potential, military strength and the political will to dominate this vast expanse of water to the detriment of her small neighbours.
The present Indian Naval strength, their development plans, composition of the various carrier groups and fleets and their basis is far beyond their legitimate defence needs particularly when there is no apparent maritime threat to India. The Indian Navy it seems, is primarily designed to project her power and influence much beyond her frontiers. India has not hesitated to use her maritime muscles. The operations against Maldives conducted a few years back was carried out swiftly and efficiently demonstrating their Naval capability and the strategic air lift from Agra. A large scale military operation was also carried out in Sri Lanka. Both ostensibly in support of the island nations.
In Pakistan it is often forgotten that, 'The seaboard of a country is one of its frontiers' and has to be adequately guarded for the security and well-being of the country. Also, the easier the access offered by the frontier to the region beyond, in this case the sea, the greater will be the tendency and the requirement of a people toward intercourse with the rest of the world through it. Resulting in increased trade and commerce on which the economy and eventual prosperity of a nation depends.
The principal conditions affecting the Sea Power of nations are primarily their geographical position, their size and extent of coastline; the quantity of their sea-borne trade and the threat to it; maritime ambitions of their neighbours; and finally the number and determination of their population and the understanding and resolve of their leaders and government.
Pakistan's large coastline and good harbours are ideal for sea-borne trade and commerce which is at present carried out mostly in foreign ships. This is detrimental to our economic and security interests and should be rectified at the earliest by acquiring more shipping ourselves or in collaboration with our Muslim neighbours. Without it Pakistan would be placing itself deliberately in the disadvantageous position of a land-locked state.
97 per cent of our trade is sea-borne since there is no infrastructure for trade across our land borders with India, Iran or Afghanistan. The highway to China can easily be blocked by India, and is accessible only to China and now for limited purposes to the Central Asian States. The continuing unrest in Afghanistan precludes the use of this ancient trade route to Central Asia. The land passage through Iran is vulnerable and cannot be sustained for long. Consequently our economic dependence on the sea route for trade and commerce is of cardinal importance for our very survival as an independent sovereign nation.
Our sea routes which includes merchant ships and shipping lanes have therefore to be developed further with some urgency for the nation's well-being and future prosperity. This sea-borne trade so vital for us has also to be protected against the growing maritime threat from a large and constantly expanding Indian Navy.
The maritime preponderance of India and her hegemonistic designs, makes her small neighbours - all the littoral states of the Indian Ocean, somewhat nervous. Pakistan has fought three wars with India and two border conflicts short of war. During this period the Pakistan Navy along with its elite submarine arm has managed to keep the northern half of the Arabian Sea free of Indian Naval ships which were forced to pull back into the safety of their harbours. But presently owing to a growing imbalance between the two navies, it is strongly feared that the on-going security environment in the Indian Ocean is not conducive to long-lasting peace and security of the littoral states.
Some years back the Australian government published a white paper which recognized and highlighted the threat posed by the large Indian Navy and its possible future plans and ambitions. The Malaysians are alive to the situation and have quietly embarked on Naval expansion including the acquisition of submarines. The Burmese government is planning a naval base along its coast in the Bay of Bengal to offset the large Indian Naval presence at Port Blair in the Andaman Islands. In the Persian Gulf, the Iranians have a viable submarine arm in the making. Smaller states with large ethnic Indian populations are showing muted signs of nervousness and have therefore effectively put themselves under the American umbrella.
Although inherently we are a land power but with over 450 miles of coastline we are also a sea-fearing nation and therefore cannot ignore the sea and all the advantages that flow from it. At present our twin sea ports of Karachi and Bin Qasim through which most of our imports and exports flow have to be effectively protected by our Navy against a blockade by the Indian Navy in peace and war. Pakistan Navy has also to protect the sea-lanes leading to our sea-ports from the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, so that cargo ships and oil tankers continue to play on these routes as they did during the Indo-Pak Wars of 1965 and 1971, unmolested by our aggressive neighbour - India.
There is no getting away from the fact that the Indian Navy, which plans for three carrier groups, and nuclear submarines supported by long range naval reconnaissance aircraft, projects an entirely different image than what the Indian government would have the World believe. Add to these the short and long range missile development programme continuing apace, specially from launch platforms underwater and on the surface, then the worst fears of India's small neighbours is clearly understood along with the uncertain future of the littoral states of the Indian Ocean, that India is planning to dominate to her advantage.
By acquiring reckonable sea power, India has been able to achieve two aims. First, other powers now understand that trade will not cross the Indian Ocean against a hostile Indian Navy. World political and economic powers being attracted by India's vast market potential and trade prospects, therefore, find it increasingly profitable to befriend India inspite of her gruesome human rights record particularly in Indian-held Kashmir. This is done in some cases at the cost of Pakistan. Secondly, a naval power of such magnitude provides India ample force to seriously effect the sea-borne trade of Pakistan and other Muslim countries in the region.
India is also trying to blatantly expand her domination in the Indian Ocean to her self-perceived sphere of influence. Which extends to Malaysia and Indonesia in the South-East and Aden-Socotra in the West, running south to Seychelles and further south to Mauritius. This would cover the whole Indian Ocean. Australia owns the Cocos (Keeling) Islands situated in the Indian Ocean about 1400 miles north-west of the mainland of Australia. To its north-west, another 1600 miles, is the British Indian Ocean Territory, consisting of the Chagos Archipelago (oil Islands) of which Diego Garcia with a major airstrip is the southern-most island. Diego Garcia was used by the United States B-52 strategic bombers as a base during the Gulf War. Diego Garcia is about 1200 miles south of India.
The Arabs were a great sea-faring nation when they expanded their trade and influence much beyond their frontiers. They crossed the Mediterranean to occupy Europe. As Admiral Mahan says, 'circumstances have caused the Mediterranean Sea to play a greater part in the history of the world, both in a commercial and a military point of view, than any other sheet of water of the same size'. The Muslims lost Western Europe and many centuries later Eastern Europe as well when they lost command of the seas and the freedom to sail the Mediterranean. The Sea was to play a pivotal role in the decline of the Muslim world as it has played in the destiny of other great empires. Have the Muslims learnt some lessons from this decline. It is doubtful as the Muslim countries including Pakistan are apt to ignore a viable and credible maritime defence.
A naval historian had this to say about Spain, 'In the course of history the Netherlands, Naples, Sicily, Minorca, Havana, Manila and Jamaica were wrenched away at one time or another from the Spanish empire without a shipping. In short while Spain's maritime impotence may have been primarily a symptom of her general decay, it became a marked factor in precipitating her into the abyss from which she has not yet wholly emerged'.
As regards the development of sea power it is not the total number of square miles which a country contains, but the length of its coast-line and the character of its harbours that are to be considered. It is said that the extent of a sea-coast is a source of strength or weakness according as the population is large or small. 'A country is in this like a fortress, the garrison must be proportionate to the population'.
Added to this is the EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). In case of Pakistan it is one third of our land mass. This has to be adequately guarded for renewable (fish) and the non-renewable (oil and minerals) resources of the Sea. If these are not guarded by our Naval forces they are not likely to be available to us and would in all likelihood be exploited by the strong maritime power in our vicinity.
Pakistan is a developing country with limited resources but is being compelled to spend a fair amount of her earnings on maintaining a viable defence, owing to the plans and intentions of our large and aggressive neighbour. The country is located in a hostile neighbourhood and has been the victim of aggression on five different occasions. In the last encounter Pakistan was split asunder by the military might of our neighbour while the United Nations stood by helpless, as no national interests of the major world powers were involved. All this conflict and confrontation in South Asia is primarily because of India's belligerent attitude towards her small neighbours. This stance is now being projected into the Indian Ocean to the utter regret of all concerned. It must be realised that the burden of defence for all the countries of South Asia including India is damaging their economic and social progress. This burden will decidedly increase as India aggressively surges into the Indian Ocean in the 21st Century. Genuine efforts should be made to curtail defence expenditure of all the states in South Asia. An arbitrary move to reduce defence expenditure in Pakistan as some are suggesting would be foolhardy and unacceptable to be people for obvious reasons.
Pakistan has one main sea-port of Karachi, with a secondary one at Bin Qasim next door. Both using by and large the same infrastructure. There are plans to build other ports along the coast further west, but this effort is hampered owing to paucity of funds. The port of Gwadar west of Karachi is being developed as a deep sea-port but will take some time, to complete and develop its potential. Its strategic location at the mouth of the Persian Gulf should be of some significant interest to all those nations whose economic and strategic interests require safe trading routes in and out of the Persian Gulf.
Pakistan itself must trade to stay alive and prosper, therefore her ports and sea lines of communications must remain open and secure to ensure her survival and development. These are at present open to interruption by the growing maritime power of India, which must be curbed to maintain peace in the area.
Pakistan is primarily a land-based power but she is also an important littoral state of the Indian Ocean. She cannot survive as a sovereign independent state by ignoring the sea as some land-oriented military thinkers seem to advocate. She must take an active part in the Indian Ocean strategy by projecting her 'military strength afloat', in maintaining viable and credible Naval forces capable of safeguarding the nations vital interests during peace and war.


Plz pray,
Sardarzada
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Post Experts hope China to operate Gwadar port

Friday,March 03,2006 Posted: 153 BJT(0703 GMT) Pakistan ECCo

Report from the Dawn

KARACHI, March 3: Experts on ports and shipping sector are not favouring the handing over of the operations of Gwadar port to a Dubai company which already has vital stakes and interest in other regional hub ports including Sallalah and Dubai ports.

These experts opine that when there is a clash of business interest there would be a rare possibility that the port operators from Dubai will be compromised to promote Gwadar port.

The Gwadar port is strategically located outside the sensitive area of Strait of Hormuz but still remains on main shipping lanes. On its western side lay several hub ports of the Gulf and on eastern side Sri Lanka and Indian ports.

Gwadar, therefore, came into worldwide focus during first Gulf war when shipping lines were confronted with security issue and had to pay extra premiums towards insurance, thereby, increasing their operational cost and eroding their profits.

However, the experts believe that if the Gwadar port has to take its right-full place among the regional hub ports and to achieve proper benefits matching its strategic advantages some neutral operators should be asked to takeover its function and operations.

As a matter of fact Gwadar is already a threat to many hub ports of the region located on its western and eastern side and if the government fails to take correct and pragmatic decision in the larger national interest the opportunity for this port to become natural choice for major shipping lines will be lost, once for all,?observed an expert who requested anonymity.

When looked at the geographical location, Dubai is about 500 nautical miles from Gwadar. A vessel will take about 30 hours more than Gwadar (one-way) adding extra expenses of about $100,000 for an average vessel of 20,000 tons for calling at Gulf ports. Above all shipping companies are even today paying higher premium to insurance companies on entering most volatile Strait of Hormuz, he added.

In a worst case scenario, if the government fails to draw due benefit from this most important hub port of the region, Gwadar could serve as a hub port for the country's other ports which are presently operating as feeder ports. Presently, the country's cargo is being transhipped through Sallalah or Dubai ports but after coming up into operation Gwadar could replace them which will not only save time but also revenue in millions of dollars.

These experts believe that Gwadar port being only 70 miles away from Iranian border, could also serve Central Asian transit trade and would only require a link road because Iran has fully developed infrastructure on its side and is even presently used for transit trade to CIS. Both the countries would be earning their due share out of this commercial activity.

With China fast becoming economic giant will soon attained a position of second largest economy of the world and it would badly need such port facilities in the proximity area of Gulf but yet to be out side the sensitive strait of Hormuz.

Consequently, experts are of a strong view that key functions of Gwadar port should have been given to some Chinese companies. Even if the Chinese companies and exporters handle their own cargo it would make Gwadar port as the busiest and most active port of the region. Above all Gwadar is situated atop the shipping lane through which at least 60 per cent of the world oil passes.

These experts estimate that the Asian container trade is expected to increase more rapidly than the overall world average during next 10 years. Asia's share in containerized imports will rise from 40pc to 44.1pc.

All care should be made before making final decision because this would have far reaching effect and implications on the future working of Gwadar port which is being considered as the most strategically located port outside the sensitive Strait of Hormuz, another expert asserted.

The Gwadar Port Authority had invited EoIs last year and received five offers submitted by international and local companies ?Hutchison Port Holdings Group (Hong Kong), Globe Marine Services Co (Saudi Arabia), Pakistan International Container Terminal (Karachi), Dubai Port International (Dubai), and Rangoonwala Group (Karachi).

However, only Globe Marin Service, Pakistan International Container Terminal and Dubai Port International had sent their detailed proposals.


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Post Control of Gwadar seaport not being handed over to any other country

Foreign Office spokesperson, Ms Tasneem Aslam in her weekly press briefing said that Control of Gwadar seaport not being handed over to any other country.

ISLAMABAD, April 05 (Online): Pakistan ruled out handing over the control of Gwadar sea port to some other country. However Pakistan said that flow of investment from any part of world in Gwadar port would be welcomed.

This was said by foreign office spokesperson Ms Tasneem Aslam in her weekly press briefing here in foreign office Tuesday.

On a question about handing over the control of Gwadar sea port to some other country she said Gwadar is located on Pakistan territory and its control is not being handed over to any other country.

On a question about missile test she has said that Pakistan will continue missile tests to ensure its national security and maintain minimum credible deterrence. Our relations with Afghanistan are vibrant and both the countries want the bilateral ties to grow stronger, she held.

Citing to Richard Boucher visit to Pakistan she said that the visit is aimed to boost bilateral ties and it is follow up of President Bush visit to Pakistan. Boucher has met foreign minister Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri. He has held talks with the foreign secretary. Boucher is also likely to meet President Musharraf.

To a question spokesperson said Inquiry commission are working to probe into killings of Pakistanis in Spin Boldak. One commission has been set up by interior ministry and second has been constituted by governor Kandahar.

On resolution of Kashmir issue she said we are optimistic that headway would be made on this issue. International community is encouraging composite dialogue process between Pakistan and India. Both the countries are parties to this dispute as per UN resolutions. However Kashmiris are natural stakeholder.

She told Mir Waiz had not made any hint in his interview that China was holding any part of Kashmir. He has given proposal to associate China with the dialogue process because China is a larger country.

Responding to a question she said composite dialogue between Pakistan and India are aimed at addressing the issues rather than scaling down the tension. Problems will be solved only when there is a movement forward towards settlement of core issue of Kashmir. Work is underway through back door diplomacy and at diplomatic and political level to sort out the issue.

Spokesperson said US had not sent any application to us to attain observer status in SAARC nor has SAARC secretariat informed us in this regard.

She pointed out that extradition treaty has not been signed between Pakistan and UK. However it has taken final shape and it will be signed at opportune time.
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