2019-critical analysis (for IR, CA and PA)
 

Aoa,
All those are preparing, or have prepared to appear for 2019 are welcome to discuss and analyze the national and international development and queries across the political and geostrategic landscape for IR, CA and PA.

For instance, to analyze and address the following queries and developments.[LIST][*]NWO
[*]Pakistan in NOW: opportunities and challenges?
[*]Is it not too early to announce obituary of globalization?
[*]Transitional threats (ecological disruption, technological disruption, security threats)
[*]have the traditional marker of international relation sovereignty, nation-state system, state security, and national interests become obsolete or modified?
[*]The demise of the liberal order in myth or reality?
[*]Is 21 century belongs to China?
[*]Is new COLD WAR in making? how it is different than the cold war of the 20th century?
[*]Brexit and Trumpism heralded the new era or just a transitional wave?[/LIST]and so on ...




[B]
(Note: do not inundate this post with unnecessary text only concise, to the point and critical analysis.)[/B]

1. US Indo-Pacific vision: Implications for Pakistan
2. Economic prowess of China vis-a-vis BRI
3. Global trade constraints (US-China Trade War)
4. A growing wave of populism (Is the world digressing from globalization)?
5. Water scarcity in Pakistan
6. Global climate vulnerability
7. Influence of AI market in the workforce
8. Middle East situation post US drawdown from Syria and Afghanistan

Sikander, my purpose hereby to write some critical analysis of these developments.
for instance, you wrote, the [B]US Indo-Pacific vision: Implications for Pakistan[/B], my take on this on a cursory look the US wants to contain China and reemphasize its sponsored liberal order, but more incisive analysis reveals that '[B]US Indo-Pacific vision[/B]' is in disarray such as Obama's doctrine 'Asia pivot' to trump's 'America First approach. Its Implication for Pakistan are both in term of opportunities (reform stringent one directional foreign policy, revive its economic and strategic ties with regional powers China and Russia etc )and challenges (Afghan problem solution as the US is hard pressing Pakistan on it, Indo-US anathema etc)

I would like to continue with China's BRI initiative

This initiative came into limelight when the present Chinese head of state visited Kazakhstan and expressed its willingness to connect Asian region with Europe for infrastructural development of developing countries and strengthening of their economies. Under the pretext, China is looking forward to spearheading the global economic system. It is important to observe here that those states which the initiative is encompassing are economically poor countries, i.e. Pakistan, Myanmar, Kyrgyzstan, and some of the Carribean countries. China has already taken Sri Lanka's Hambantota port and Kenya's Mombasa port after the countries' failure to return the debts taken from China. Challenges: The most patent challenge for this initiative is converting the global trade currency from dollar to Yuan, because in order for China to overtake the US as the largest economic country, it is indispensable for her to do so. The challenge for the US is to contain China's increasing economic influence in other countries which, to them, is debt-trap diplomacy to make less powerful countries insolvent.

China's BRI initiative
 

[B]China's BRI initiative[/B]

[U]BRI is one of the most ambitious economic projects of the modern history of the world including 68% GWD, 60% population of the world and spans around 70 countries. It consists of two new silk road (6 corridors) and maritime silk road.[/U]

- it can significantly alter the regional and global economic political and strategic landscape such as in south South Asia intraregional trade is 5.4% against its potential 20%, according to WB. Economic led prosperity and connectivity will go along political and strategic changing in the region( for instance, China and Japan recent trade deal which surprised many and India is vacillating between china led economic incentives and the US led strategic incentives).

-the US effort to defame BIR as debt trap seems fault (infrastructure investment less tends to return high economic interest )and also unsuccessful (Japan tilt toward China manifested it).

Is it not too early to announce obituary of globalisation?

there are more prospects for liberal order and globalisation to continue In spite of the fact that new nationalist and protectionist mindset has arose. (US Trump policy, China and Russia resurgence).

But due to the intricate interdependance and Resilient characteristics of the globalisation, It is difficult to say that it is near to end.

Issues like environment, Security, Trade and business are so entangled together that Governments would find no way but to work together to grapple with the situation or else suffer un-ending consequences.

Many countries, even so-called nationalists are reaping the benefits of globalisation, interdependance, liberalism that they wont allow the system get derailed.

In the end, One US congresman likened the dictatorship with a sailing boat which hits a stone and goes to bottom and a Liberal democracy with a raft, which never sinks but carries on against all odds.

IR theories can describe concisely as following:

realism: realpolitik
liberalism: reciprocity
constructivism: an idea, a norm, and values what matter
postmodernism: nothing is absolute truth

IR Theories
 

Realism: Power and Human nature
Neorealism: Anarchy structure ... The prisoner dilemma and the security dilemma results in defection and arms race respective.
Liberalism: openness and coordination... An individual is a key actor
Constructivism: Perceiving of threats... Anarchy is not a self-made is structure, but anarchy is what states made of.

Is bipolarity coming?
 

[B]Is bipolarity coming?
[/B]If one has difficulty to discern the emerging bipolarity then just juxtapose defense budget of countries such as by 2023 The US's defense budget might be $800billion and China's $ 300 billion while no other country spends more than $80 billion on their forces( even Russia's defense budget is $ 69 billion). Interestingly, this bipolarity is unprecedented as China economic success and political stability was built on liberal order, unlike the 20th-century bipolarity which was based on sheer inverse political and economic ideology- capitalism and communism.

[B]So, what is ahead?
[/B] Conceptually speaking, the world order in truly in a revolutionary phase, no one has on way to see the future, but one can extrapolate unprecedented order, given the tectonic shifts on the world stage in every stride of life from politics to economy (China embrace free trade and the US tends to abandon) and from social order(cosmopolitan culture) to technology(IA).