Wat would be the next leading party in the natinol Assembly?
 

I know it is rough question and before time.
we can't change our fate in this matter.
we will depend again on PPPP, PML(N), PML(Q).
We know these are not sincere with Pakistan, they are sincere with themselves not the common people of Country.Am i right or not?

[B]PML(N) Unfortunately[/B]. :sad:

most probably PML (N) but i will vote Imran Khan

dear so far as the sincerity is concern not only the parties you have mentioned but all of our politicians have no concern with people they are busy in filling their own pockets.
the next govt in my opinion in national assembly will be of PML (N) with strong opposition of PPPP

PPP will again establish the government .PML (N) is a Provincial party and its majority will then restricted to Punjab i-e upper Punjab only.

PML N Rocks-- PP ki yeh last govt ha-- Than no pp

[QUOTE=zebniazi;206808]PML N Rocks-- PP ki yeh last govt ha-- Than no pp[/QUOTE]
PML N will establish the next Govt but not due to their fame but just due to there is no such a strong party against it otherwise............. PML N restricted itself to Punjab only

[QUOTE=fahim13;206753]I know it is rough question and before time.
we can't change our fate in this matter.
we will depend again on PPPP, PML(N), PML(Q).
We know these are not sincere with Pakistan, they are sincere with themselves not the common people of Country.Am i right or not?[/QUOTE]

I wish if we make PTI seated in parliament instead of trying our traditional politicians those who can really bring some change to the foreign policy. If PMLN joins parliament I am worried the same foreign policy will continue and will prove to be disastrous.

only party having stronghold in the country is people's party without any damn doubt.. look at them they're having their routes in all four provinces n jus recently wt hppnd in gilgit baltistan they completely swept it... man, people really like people's party myth n legends... only problem wth them is today's buggers who dnt simply think of ordinary countrymen... yet i bet they're goin to sweep in nxt poles if all goes transparent..
com'n guys dnt talk abt pml (n) n pti... why do u guys forgt, pml (n) couldnt gt a single seat in sindh n balochistan in last poles, wth few in nwfp n rest in punjab.. they're one province party... i dont think they're gona sweep in nxt poles until n unless they're supported by military guys.. well well pti... it's simply piss-to-imran party.. a guy who's bn a big playboy in his life, who ran after a white girl n then couldnt manage to settle wth her, a guy who's earning billions of funds in name of hospital n things... well i dnt think he can bring abt any revolution.. he's nothing more than a person who knows hw to mk an impressive talks n speeches, tht also almost identical all the times...
to be honest i am nt aside to any party bt i really mourn n cry for the death of great zulfiqar ali bhutto n benazir bhutto... this country really needed them.. we've bn sent decades back by killing two great bhuttos, only leaders this country could hv so far..

let's pray for the fate of our country.. "May Allah Pak keep our homeland n its people under His blessings" Ameen

I think next term will be of a Dictator.The way our democratic government is
going it seems to me that all is not well in future..
But any way i really want to see imran khans party to win..i know its a
far fetched thought,but i really like this man,and i believe his honesty.
PML.N is just waiting for its turn to further rob this country of its wealth...

[QUOTE=fahim13;206753]I know it is rough question and before time.
we can't change our fate in this matter.
we will depend again on PPPP, PML(N), PML(Q).
We know these are not sincere with Pakistan, they are sincere with themselves not the common people of Country.Am i right or not?[/QUOTE]

No single party will get majority in next election,however,PPP and PML N will form a Coalition govt..Allah knows better...

The parliament will be without any party's majority. A leading party will need another party's hand to set up the federal govt. In sindh, there would be coalition of MQM and All pak muslim league.

The following factors can play a commanding role in future elections:

1]military establishment:
a few points to ponder:a)kiyani,s extension has given him a room to carve his name in politics
b) chronically, high morale and image of pak army has always resulted in military intervention.
c)no popular leader would be allowed to emerge
d)army will try to shut down the nurseries of ethnicity which were hybridized
by the past dictator. so, will be in need of the federal leadership.
that,s why ----religious card would be played in blouchistan------but, the religious parties may trigger again the talibanization in KP, so, semi-religious parties or rightists would be allowed to play in khyber pakhtoonkhaw.
e)to burn the sind card, ppp will be given relatively less seats in sind.
moreover,ignorance in flood relief activities has dashed the image of ppp in rural sind.

f)army loves the coalation govts. because, no party gets full fledged control
over politics. so, same can be expected again.

2]judiciary:
----will establish independent election commission
----will resist any undemocratic intervention

3]media:
TWO CATAGORIES______1)responsible like dunya, dawn, express,waqt 2)irresponsible like GEO,ary etc.

-------responsible media will try to report normally but irresponsible channels would try not to create room for new blood .rather they would keep on earning through amplifying opposition parties. look at geo. to this channel no hero except NAWAZ exists on this soil. it rediculed IMRAN KHAN in "hum sab umeed se hain" and tried to cartoonify all other politicians except nawaz.

so, the urban areas where media is available, new politics would be discouraged by "GOEBLES,S tools".

4)AMERICA:
would support pml(n) as ppp is a falling wall.and america never supports the drowning ships.
----at the same time, would try to fuel the chaos in already traumatic country, so that the democratic forces may fail. and would encourage military
to intervene.
but, since the independent media and judiciary are the bulwarks of democracy, so, america may prefer a weak democratic and less reputed person in power house which definitely can be mr.ZARDARI.
---at the same time will try for the active role of ethnic politics.

nowwwwwwwww, we can analyze the percentage of victory of each political party;
PPP;
---success in sind rural. but in urban partly. in eastern sindh, ethnic parties like pulajo group may win.
-------------in punjab, just before the elections she would announce the new
southern province and will sweep in southern punjab to establish provincial setup at multan. and to get 10 to 15 seats of NA.
-------------in KHYBER, sherpao group may rescue ppp. but religious anger will bring failure.
-------------in blouchistan, failure.
-------------in GBLA, clean sweep.
-------------in AJK, ambiguous situation.so,we can,t predict.

PPP may get 40 to 50 seats overall in NA.
so, no chances of forming the govt.

PML(N):
----will be failure in s.punjab.
----will get seats on gt road
----in potohar region ,she will win.except pindi where sheikh may roar again.
----will play sectarian cards to grab the votes but owing to pro-americanism, everywhere the votes will be divided between pml(n) and pti (upto some extent).
----in punjab, the main adversary of pml(n) will be pml(q). if all divided sectioins get united before elections under chaudhris, then a real danger for mr. nazaz.
----in lahore and other urban centres, pti will bring carnage for pml(n).
----in KP, pti will be a real set backer in each constituency. look at the results in bielections of kp.
----in blouchistan the no of seats would be '0'.
----in ajk,not clear
----in gbla, 3 to 5 seats.
so will get only 25 to 50 seats in aggregate.

PML(Q):
no chance of rule. except when "the mummy" returns from abroad.but 'chacha wardi' is afraid of judiciary.

MQM:
the new image of mqm has be blemished owing to the ravage at
karachi streets.no seat in punjab,and GBLA . and will be confined to karachi.

PTI:
----in rural areas, no support
----in central and upper punjab(urban) may strike 5 to 10 seats.
----in s. punjab, no seat.
----in gbla 2 to 5 seats
----in blouchistan may catch every party with a surprise by forming a coalation govt with BNP and other groups. her popularity graph at rise among blouchis.
----in KHYBER, clean sweep by PTI.
----in sind, no seat.

THREADS for other parties by PTI:
1)130 million new voters have been registered who are less than 30 yrs age.
2)all anti-american voters in pakistan
3)liberals
4)educated class.
5)new trends in student unions.
)NEHRu was asked once by a journalist why you couldn,t bring halt to the creation of pakistan.
he replied that because of LAHORE. no movement rising from lahore can be
a failure.
look at all the movements of pakistan who used the lahori landscape.
almost all of them were a success.,
during last bi elections, pml(n) defeated PTI by rigging the elections.

and still pti scored 18500 votes ,which means a fracture line in typical lahori political mindset. an alarming signal for the rest of pak politicians.

but still no chances of PTI to make a powerful govt. atleast for next 5 years.

RESULT OF THE ANALYSIS:
condition #1:
a coalation govt can be established because
no one will strike the majority .and the chances of coup are less because of judiciary and media.
condition #2:
but the coup of technocrats can be anticipated if....the current politicians disappoint the masses.
the set up can be like that;
------totally democratic
------military+judiciary+intellactuals
+a small political party of good reputation
condition #3
govts of different parties in different provinces
and a coalation PM from any party except ppp.

Doubtful...
 

Although Choudhry Nisar has tried a lot to deal with GHQ yet is doesn’t seem there is any deal finalized for next full-fledged government of PML(N).

Yet [B]PML(N)[/B] chances are higher for majority in NA and Punjab as CM Sahab is doing well for flood victims.

[B]PPP[/B] will win Sindh, 30% Punjab probably, and 20% in KPK, but will fail to make independent government in Sindh as next elections can be lethal, opposition parties will contest with higher investment.


[B]PTI[/B]: Greater chances to get 2 to 3 seats in NA, and some MPAs as well, recent by-elections showed acceptance for PTI candidates.


PPP has done average so far, it has capacity to do more, flood affected people will decide the future of PPP and PML(N).


Regards,