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  #1  
Old Saturday, October 02, 2010
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Default US exit strategy from Afghanistan and its after effects on Pakistan

The American pull out will create number of problems for Pakistan with which the country cannot cope.
Given the high levels of illiteracy and poor infrastructure the situations in Afghanistan will not improve due to which the Taliban would strengthen which will make it possible for them to start influencing in Pakistani border areas, from where they can reach out for the other regions of the country as well.
Pakistan will be under immense pressure to crack down on militants.
Pakistan is already suffering from poor image internationally and this will only make her image more adverse...



I would like all of you to come up with ur opinion... this is my little effort, dun know if what i wrote is fine or not... do let me know about my mistakes and guide me. . .

kind Regards
Madiha
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Madu u must understand that American pull out will create a vacuum which many elements of Afghan society would like to fill. According to my view American pull out will create pressure on Talibans as well bcs now they r recruiting the Afghan people on the slogan of " Join the Jihad against Infidels". And when there will not be any infidel in the country then how will they acquire the public support. An other thing u must understand and keep in ur mind that this is not 90s when the people have very few ways of communication. Now, people r connected with each other and the new generation of Afghans have tasted the taste of international t.v channels and have indulged in watching movies and listening songs. They have there own t.v channel as well(Shamshad tv Afghanistan) which is promoting a soft image of Afghanistan in the world. So, in this scenario i dont think that the Talibans will be able to hold sway upon Afghanista. Moreover, when there is no more America in Afghanistan then whose name will they sell to buy the support of local Pakistani people and how will they justify their attacks upon Pakistan. Furthermore, now, due to internet and video clipping they will not be able to cut the Afghan society from the whole of the world and if they will try to do so the native Afghan people will up against them to defend their cultural bounds. (Sense of nationalism and loyalty towards their culture is enhancing very rapidly among the local Afghans and u can see it on their channel)
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Following is very useful relevant article regarding the thread:

Endgame in Afghanistan
By Irfan Husain
Saturday, 19 Jun, 2010

Scarcely a day goes by without a major story about Afghanistan in mainstream newspapers and TV channels in Britain and America. The tone of these reports is increasingly sombre. More and more journalists and politicians are now convinced that the quicker western forces pull out, the better.

There have been indications that the UK government is focused on an exit strategy that would allow an orderly, face-saving pullout. And the announcement that Sir Jock Stirrup, chief of the British armed forces, would retire several months before he was due to step down, is another indication of major changes in the British defence posture in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

A mounting concern for American politicians and military planners is that to all appearances, Gen McChrystal’s famous surge seems to be petering out. The offensive in Helmand was designed to clear large parts of the province of Taliban fighters, and then hand over the territory to Afghan police and army to provide security. The local forces, trained at considerable expense by Nato troops, have proven to be inadequate for the task, and in many areas the Taliban are back in force.

Indeed, the entire exit strategy for foreign forces rests on the assumption that in time, Afghan police and army would be able to take over from their western counterparts. This would allow Nato to declare victory and go home. Clearly, the fighting capability of the local recruits is still far short of what is expected of them, raising serious questions about what will happen when the foreign troops go home.

All opinion polls indicate that there is wide public disenchantment in the West with the occupation. Canada is all set to begin pulling out its troops. Barack Obama and David Cameron have both shown their impatience with the continuing presence of their troops in Afghanistan.

Another plank in the exit strategy that has proven to be a frail reed is Hamid Karzai. Somehow, diplomats and politicians assumed that better governance would persuade Afghans to reject the Taliban, and help the government to turn the tide against the forces led by Mullah Omar and other extremist leaders. But by hanging on to power after an apparently rigged election, presiding over a thoroughly corrupt administration, and dragging his feet over meaningful reforms, Karzai has alienated his people to such an extent that they see no reason to risk their lives to support him.

Given the weakening of western resolve to continue its occupation of Afghanistan and the likelihood that once foreign forces pull out, the Taliban will be back in Kabul, what do these developments mean for Pakistan? With the advantage of hindsight, it is clear that our defence establishment has been preparing for this endgame all along.

For our GHQ, the biggest danger is an alliance between India and Afghanistan that would effectively encircle Pakistan. Given this threat perception, defence planners in Rawalpindi would hardly welcome New Delhi’s increasing clout in Kabul, and its billion-dollar aid efforts in our war-ravaged neighbour. The half a dozen Indian consulates on the Pak-Afghan border have obviously raised suspicions.

Thus, the increased level of activity of the Lashkar-e-Taiba in Afghanistan should come as no surprise. In a recent article in the New York Times Alissa J. Rubin gives details of recent operations carried out by this terrorist group against Indian targets in Afghanistan. The Lashkar has gained considerable notoriety because of its bloody campaign in Indian-administered Kashmir as well as within India itself, most notably its terrorist attacks in Mumbai nearly two years ago. There have been strong allegations of links between this group and the ISI.

Given the Pakistani establishment’s threat assessment, the reason underlying its policy of turning a deaf ear to the western demand to ‘do more’ becomes clear. It wants its proxies in place when foreign troops pull out, something it calculates will be sooner rather than later. And it wants a place at the negotiation table when decisions are being made about Afghanistan’s future. It can best do so by having access to the Taliban leadership.

These are legitimate security concerns. What is objectionable are the alleged means through which they are being pursued. The military establishment has been accused of using terrorists to further its agenda. There has always been the basic contradiction built into the policy of using terrorists as pawns, and then expecting them to come to heel when called.

Meanwhile, terror groups that had been established and supported by the Pakistani establishment to do its bidding in India, Kashmir and Afghanistan turn their guns and their bombs on Pakistani security forces and civilians, killing thousands.

This is the problem with developing a security framework without any reference to the people and the political leadership. The military, smug in the belief that only it knows what’s good for the country, has continued to run a secretive, rogue policy that contravenes international law as well as Pakistan’s own interests.

With the Afghan endgame now clearly in sight, it is all the more necessary that India, Pakistan and Afghanistan must resolve their differences and come to some understanding irrespective of the military and domestic compulsions of Nato states active in the region. Unfortunately, the zero-sum game that has characterised Indo-Pak relations will probably prevent this logical convergence of interests.

If the West’s exit strategy fails in its expectation of an orderly handover then Pakistan can expect to be singled out as the scapegoat for a military defeat. The allegations contained in the Waldeman report about the Pakistan government’s links to the Taliban should be seen in this context.

Despite the leaks and rumours about talks with the Taliban, Mullah Omar has made it clear that he will only talk to the Karzai government once foreign forces have withdrawn from Afghanistan. At that point, the only things to discuss with Karzai will be the terms of surrender.
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america can,t leave the graveyard of superpowers without eating a humble pie.
whether it leaves or not, the game will never be ended as american vested
interests in the region will remain the same.

american departure will result in :

1]departure of india too from afghanistan
2]china will deal with hikmat yar and taliban
3]iran will become the regional giant without any strategic pressure
4]pakistan will hold the strategic depth
5]talibani extremism will prevail but would soon be equalized by reemergence of proxy wars b/w pro iran and pro taliban elements
6]sectarian uprising in pakistan
7]lashkar e taiba will ravage indian dream in kashmir while nixalite
will do this in their respective territory.
8]blouchistan uprising will be weaken
9]anti american political parties having federal looks will rise from the scratch
10]america will also be expunged from central asiatic republics alongwith india
11]political unrest in pakistan as no mediator like holbrooke will rescue the political regimes
12]economic and defence sanctions will be reimposed like presslar amendment.
13]ethnic political parties like anp,bnp,sindhi parties will go to slumber for long long time
14]the banned sectarian orgs like sipah e sabaha and lashkars will have a new tool of suicide bomber to bring carnage to sectarian adversories.
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Thanks to all.

@ Ali
why do you think that India will quit too?
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@madu

india will have to quit because of the following reasons;

1] the strategic patronizer of india(u.s.a.)will not be there in afghanistan

2]taliban and typical afghan culture has no similarity with indian culture

3]pro-pak groups are strengthening

4]only key supporter after american demise would be afghan army who has no capability to snuff out pro-pak jihadi groups

5]there are a few deciding players in afghanistan;
a)hikmatyar b)haqqani group c)previous northern alliance ,s members like uzbeg,hazara,tajik etc. d)pashtun majority having close links with pakistani pashtun culture e)karzai

after departure of america, pashtun and deprived majority will reemerge under the flags of jihadis esp. pro pak hikmatyar and haqqani groups.

pakistan is dealing with karzai and if majority uprising erupts then karzai will have no option but to support pakistan and to neglect india.
---for the 1st time pakistan is dealing with dostum and other ethnic groups for future set up.

all above scenario is extremely uncondusive for india to materialize her
designs in afghanistan.
so,
----no indian soldier would be secure in qandhar and other areas where they are present now a days.
----their contractors and investment will be insecure than ever
----the pro-pak elements will never allow 17 indian counslates at pak-afghan border to work any more.
-----above report in this thread shows how active lashkar e taiba is in afghanistan against indians.

that,s why, the only choice for india would be to leave the soil with pungent memories of the end game and that of the carnage upon her gigantic-dreams.
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Ali all of ur arguments r true but would u plz explain these....
. where the thousands of Afghan will go who r taking police training in India
. wt do u think about the attitude of the students who have taken admission in Indian universities
. if Iran is going to be the regional power then where Saudi Arabia and Turky will stand(which r also claiming the status of regional and islamic powers)
. where the Indian spending will go which she has spent on different Afghan athenic groups particularly upon so-called Northern Alliance
. where wd u like to rate the speculations regarding Maulvi Younis's annex with india
. where will u put the Abdullah Abdullah who has given tough time to Karzai in presidential election and there r some speculations that he could win the elections if there was not rigging has been done by the officials, who is also American and indian favorite and has a hostile connection with Pakistan. and who have a big political clout in Afghanistan
. Do u think that America will leave afghanistan altogather and went back as it has been done by USSR
. If America do so then where the security of her nationals will stand???
. if China will settle her issues with Taliban then what will be the future of Sinkiang movement, which was openly supported by Mullah Ummar led Taliban govt during 1990s.
.where the Russia will stand which has her own concerns towards Talibans who were supporting Chichnya movement???
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@khuram -khokhar

ur querries show ur sagacity and deep insight in foreign issues.

q-1]where thousands of afghan soldiers will go??
answer:they will resist any pro-taliban change in the society but will soon be vanished since their potential backers will not be there to extricate them.
but, i agree that the resistance would be tough from afghan soldiers.

q-2]attitude of indian university students of afghan origin??
ans]they will study in their respective instt.
but look at the history , all anti-pak cream of afghan society could not resist the real deciding factor of afghan system(the warriors).
so, this studying minority of a few hundred will be incapacitated by the savage warriors. so, don,t worry bro.

q-3]if iran becomes power than where ksa and turks stand.....
ans]
the strategic depth of iran is in syria,iraq,lebanon,behrain,palestine and south afghanistan. this depth sustained even in pressure of war on terror and american presence.
imagine, if this pressure is lifted up, how much the balloon of persia will
expand!
as regards to saudia and turkey, the repressive monarchy of ksa will be weakened as string of pearls policy of china is in favour of iranian expansion in yemen,bharain and iraq in order to expunge american influence.
so, saudia will be beleguered into the double trouble;demise of anti-iran powers and rise of chinese authority in the string of pearls.
turkey is already joining eastern club. and iran and turkey have learned to live together through ties of pacts on grounds of give n take.

q-4]indian spending will go where??
ans] surely, will go to hell

q-5]maulvi younis??
ans] frankly, i don,t know such name.

q-6]abdullah abdullah,s powers?
ans] kia piddi our kia piddi ka shourba.
he has no arsenal power. he is merely a diplomatic servile accomplice. he will play indian cards in afghans but will be paralyzed before emerging pashtun uprising.
there is a stamp at his chest"i am a puppet of imperialists".
how much fame a puppet can win.
q-7]
ans] america wants to depart but after handing it over to indians. but the problem is that indians have no other rescuing ship except that of america which is already sinking.
if obama has to win the nxt election, he must materialize the exit strategy.
the position of america is like that;
'na paye raftan ,na jaaye maandan".

q-8]if u.s. leave, where security of american nationals stand?
ans]
how many american nationals want to stay in afghanistan after the end game?

q-9]xinkiang movement,s future, if chian deals with taliban??
ans]
china would prefer to create a set up of amalgum of hikmat yar+haqqani+pro-iran+pashtun liberals.
this set up will be handy for china.
and she will surely get the guarantee from the new set up pertaining xinkiang.
q-10]russian concerns ??
ans]
russia still needs a corridor to access muslim world and string of pearls region. if it gets guarantee than will surely not interfere.
another soul interest is regarding the downfall of america.
after this achievement,russia will favour the set up above mentioned.
since taliban cannot be excluded or destroyed. so, only option left would be to embrace their new version and coalation set up.

all the above stake holders need pakistani support in switching talibani movement into pashtun movement which pakistan can,t afford owing to pashtun ethnic designs of anp.
so, the practical most option for pakistan ,russia, china would be of a joint venture{taliban+hikmat yar+pashtun librals+a few minority ethnic groups}.

no single power should emerge in afghanistan. but, the chaos and warfare at the soil cannot be avoided and we will see another civil war soon after the departure of america.
----------america will leave only when it will get assurance that an equivocal and ambiguous cuisine is prepared which would harm the interests of all strategic adversories like china,iran and russia and a friend name iz pakistan.
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Old Monday, October 04, 2010
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quite helpful ur answers r but still have risen some concerns in my mind which i think u wd like to respond...
it is about q-3 in which u hv told that China will support Iran. But dont u know about China's efforts to woo the leadership of KSA to make sure their share in Saudi oil reserves???? Second thing is Iran is also going through social changes(which was reflected during Hussain Mussvi's Green revolution campaign) and there is possibility of a big change in Iran's domestic politics in next presidential elections. And about China's string of pearls u must have knowledge about the condition of Gwader port, the attitude of newly elected Bangladeshi Govt(which is so much close to indian side), the difficulties facing the Chinese supported Prachanda who could not be able to win a vote of confidence even after 5 rounds of voting. And now there r news suggesting that China is paying as much as 10 million indian rupees for each MP to secure his vote but is failing again becz India is giving a tough time. And u said that Iran has its clout over Syria ,Lebenon, Yemen. but perhaps u r forgetting the difficulties faced by Malki in Iraq, the formation of Saad Hariri led govt in Lebenon (who is a close ally of KSA), the meeting between Bashsar Al assad and King Abdullah, the first of its kind in19 years, which brought them closer to have cordial relations between them. Moreover, according to me Iran's clout is shrinking from all the corners of the world either it is Hammas in PAlestine(which has bn restricted in Gaza stripe only and Mahmood Abbas has occupied the front seat after Gaza Strike in early 2009) or in Hizbullah in Lebenon which is losing its support in favor of Saad Hariri a staunch Arabian allied. So i dont think that Iran,in near future, would be able to acquire a strategic depth in all the parts u have mentioned as her sphere of influence.
. Abt Indian spending,,,Dear u must remember that Iranian and Indian interests in Afghanistan r very much same and Iran will never like a scenario in which India wd b forced to leave Afghanistan, as both these countries had been and r supporting the same elements in Afghanistan. Moreover, India has spent upon the different people who holds the leverage in different parts of Afghanistan so there spending will not go any where as it is not a new relation,
.Younis Qanuni is an influential leader of Afghanistan who has many warlords in his pocket and considered to be the puppet of India
.About Abdullah Abdullah. u r quite right about his political foundation and lacking of militant power. but u must remember that he has the ability, with the Amarican support, to buy the warlords in his favor. the task will be much easier for him when he will have American drone technology at his back, which will be so lethal when the Americans have no concerns about casualties or collateral damage.
. about xinjiang movement. u said that China will prefer to deal with Siraj Haqqani+ h.yar+liberal pashtuns+Pro Iran. but u must not be oblivious about the fact that Siraj Haqqani and pro Iran forces are not at the same line and they have many ethnic and sectarian chasms which will emerge soon after the departure of foreign power.
. who will provide a guarntee to Russia aout her concerns when all the players are fighting for the insurance of their interests.
.if there is going to be a new civil war in Afghanistan then how can Iran get benefit from Afghanistan when it is also having a very pathetic economy and a volatile domestic political front.
. And about ur query regarding ''how many American nationals wants to be in Afghanistan after the end game" u should remember the pshcy of Republican's mind set who against the announcement of the date of withdrawal from Afghanistan by Obama. So what will they do when they come into power is not a rocket science.
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q-3-----
ans] china is supporting iran in zaidi rebillion in yemen and still getting oil from ksa.economic intersts b/w china and ksa are not affected.and both, china and ksa can,t afford to do that.
moreover, in humbatota(sri lanka) both iran and china have joint naval base to bolster the string.
------
hussain mouysvi is a hot cake for anti-iran media of west. and ,still has no chances to counter the revolution of khomeini and ali shiriyati as overwhelming majority supports the islamic revolution. in previous crisis, i was there in iran and personally observed the protest at tehran and only a few hundred protesters were there . but the no was exaggerated by western watch dogs.
ahmadinejad got 11 million votes while mousvi got only 4.3 million votes. so, no chances of green revolution.
still, if any new pro-west regime comes, then the regional tables would be turned.

---------i agree that there is a rift going on b/w ind and china in himaliya and b.desh.

------the regimes in lebanon ,palestine, bherain and iraq are repressive and are coerced by american to ravage the majority.
but, iran never had pro-iran govts. in the above mentioned countries. the strategic depth of iran means the strong militant groups who support iran. and in vintage of war, can jolt a mighty blow at the allied forces.
this strategic power of iran will rise after demise of nato power to patronize pro-west regimes of hariri, shah of behrain and mahmud abbas .
that,s what i meant for rise of persian giant.
-----i know that iran-india axis is very active in southern afghanistan.
and india may access afghans through bandar abbas and assuliyah ports of iran. but, if, america leaves, then the indians may export a few commodities
there but the convoys will have the same future as what happened to nato supplies in pakistan.
and the presence in real sense means the presence of indian counslates
in afghanistan , indian gorkha soldiers and their cantonments ,their contract companies.

if, america departs, then pakistani taliban esp. lashkar e taiba(now active in afghanistan) will never allow counslates to work anymore. since isaf soldiers can,t protect themselves than how 5000 gorkhas would be able to sustain in qandhar and lashkar gah?
and when the indian soldiers are evacuated alongwith 17 counslates then certainly the contract companies(who are already preparing for pack up) will also run.
do you think that iran has the capacity to safeguard 17 indian counslates,5000 soldiers and the contractors from pak-led insurgents(well equipped)?
------i agree that abdullah abdullah and younis qanani are two potential assets of india and iran. but remember if all other big guns of majority pashtuns like hikmat yar, mollah umar and haqqani get united then for how long mr qunoni and abdullah abdullah will be workable?
remember one crystal clear thing . once taliban reach 100 miles near to kabul, all pro northern alliance and pro indian politicians would prefer to get asylum in the west.
------for your kind information, americans are accusing iran for supporting a few sections of taliban.
so, both kinds of insurgents can meet for mutual interests.
---russia will get the guarantee from the possible set up . but frankly speaking, russia is the weakest player of afghan chess board. and may not get any assurances of safe passage.
-----iran will benefit from afghanistan by securing the south of afghanistan
from anti-shi,a elements.
and is already training the afghan shi,a refugees in iran for future designs.
this is the interest of iran in afghanistan.
---if republicans come to power then the war will be continued till the complete downfall of one of the both sides. either america or the local insurgency.
but, the internal pressure of american public is compelling all the political intellingecia to get exit plans implemented as early as possible.
so, watch out what happens!!!!
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