#1
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Two In One!
AssalamOAllaikum everybody!
I have 'two questions' to put here, both related to the subject of Pakistan Affairs. All the knowledgeable members are requested to participate in the discussion and make precious addition to my knowledge with their pearls of wisdom... Q#1: How can Pakistan gain economic dividends of its Geo-strategic location, by acting as a transit-route of trade among the Asian and other countries? Q#2: Some two days ago, I heard retired general Hameed Gul saying on a talk show that Pakistan is literally more like a square peg which do not fit in the round hole? What he meant was that no ideology like democracy, imperialism, capitalism etc can work in Pakistan other than its own (ie Islamic Ideology)? He further said that 88% population of Pakistan now want the Islamic system to implement in Pakistan, and more than 60% he said would still want the quick implementation of the same? Do you contribute to his idea? Please pass on your valuable comments... Regards |
#2
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Quote:
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#3
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Ans 1. Overall the answer is pretty easy. CIS states have loads of oil and other mineral resources. So does A-tan. So does Pakistan. Stuff that everyone from USA to CHina to Russia to EU are gonna fight over. But the problem lies in-how theyre gonna take it out to their countries. Now logistically speaking, heavy duty stuff like this cannot be transferred through land routes nicely. Sea provides the cheapest and most feasible source of conveyance. So we are left with a few routes only:
A. norther supply route through Russia. B. Gwadar and Karachi port. C. China and out to South CHina sea. E. Still another one is Port Bandar or CHahbahar in Iran. Russian waters are frozen for more than half a year so lets cross that. China still entails a massive land trampling and even if you forget that for a second, there is always a danger of China turning into a goon (which it already is if uve followed the South China Sea standoff with US and regional powers). Iran is developing its own ports too but unless the regime there is toppled-forget a trade pact with western countries. The only route available is Gwadar-not even Karachi as such. The reason? For successful shipping and logistics operations the port quality has to be of a certain level. Its mouth of entry/exit, depth at strategic points when a vessel in entering the port etc. Everybody knows that no other port can provide this except gwadar. Pakistan as a country also has immense potential to be developed as an energy corridor of a sort. When fossil fuels are brought over via pakistan, the next stage of production, i.e manufacturing products can also be done here! And all thats required to do is-to export it around the world through Gwadar. China protects Gwadar also because it also wants to do the same. Some people promote Pak-India trade as well, due to the same potential (although i differ on that note, i say, Starve them!) So you can imagine the level of industrial capacity and employment generated here, as well as the foreign exchange our country will gain. The next UAE. And this is what US wants to get its hands onto. Ans 2. Not withstanding Hamid Gul's stats, I still think that people in Pakistan have an 'inclination' towards Islam. But there are two aspects to this: A. For most people in Pak, 'practicing' Islam isnt relevant. They connect with Islam on a tertiary level or sub-consciously in the least. Although practicing Islam is quickly gaining pace, yet most still connect to Islam either by visiting their local saints, tombs, or their kid goes to a madressah. They are very conscious of their Islamic origins and it is displayed in less subtle ways throughout. It isnt right to say that Pakistanis have no concern with their religion. Nations who dont, look like the Czechs, danes or the dutch. Are we like that? I gave these two example because recent polls prove that these states rank the lowest in level of religiousness in EU. A staggering 59% czechs last year responded that they were atheists. Thats clearly not the case in Pak. Now the question remains- does this affect our national consciousness? Yes it does. In less conspicuous ways yet it does. Although we dont acknowledge this fact enough because only after something has been taken away from us, do we realize its value. Most Pakis HATE Israel, leave alone a smattering of Urban liberal fascists who are dying to pay homage at the Wailing Wall. Our culture of 'protecting women' is of Islamic origin because prior to its arrival, stuff here was pretty easy-going in the Indus Valley days. MOST kids by the age of 12 have read the Koran at least once. The examples can go on. As far as the implementation bit is concerned, we have major issues. We have too many sects. Within Sunnis there are atleast 5 main ones that i can recall immediately. Who do we listen to? The majority? Within Sunni sect there are many who have overlapping beliefs. One person may think it wrong to ask for intercession from saints but may celebrate Milad accordingly. He then represents a bit from Barelvi sect and a lil from Deobandi. So, the implementation will have to be very carefully tweaked to cover all sects yet not infringe upon any one's ideology. In other words, a moderate form is islam will have to be bought. And moderate does NOT mean police can come to my house for not praying, or whipping me if i dont cover all my hair if i already have a dupatta on. But these are just superficial things we worry too much about. The real Islamic system, focusing on ideals of justice, equality, and rule of law are so great-once in place, nobody would want it to end. My friend , a liberal, went to live in Tehran after marriage. She doesnt wanna come back. Reason? She says even if she's walking through a lone alley at night, nobody would dare touch her. The consequences of such a crime are dire and are always implemented there and then! She tells me that a widow, orphan or handicapped is taken such great care of by the state in Iran, we would envy them. |
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#4
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@Sadia Shafique and Aphrodite
First of all let me say a bundle of thanks to both of you for contributing to my knowledge. Well, I don't know what's the recent update on the IPI pipeline project with regard to India, but some two months ago Iran denied any talks being held with India on the project, because the former believed the later would not participate in IPI in view of Iran's controversial nuclear programs and would go for US-backed TAPI instead. Indian sources have denied such impression though and claimed to be keen on joining IPI if some concerns related to gas pricing and security were sorted out. But let us just try to understand this fact by studying the IPI route. In Pakistan, IPI has to pass through Balochistan and Sindh. In Khuzdar, a branch would spur-off to Karachi, but the main pipeline will continue towards Multan. From Multan the pipeline may be expanded to New Delhi. The route will be changed if China participates in the project. As there are concerns over the pipeline being attacked by Balouchi insurgents (which are supported by India itself), then Iran has proposed another off shore route from Iran to the maritime boundary between Pakistan and India of Kutch. According to this proposal, one branch will run to Pakistan while other will run to Kutch. Now if India has to participate in IPI project it has to either stop supporting Balochi insurgents or opt for alternative proposal of Iran. But on being asked which one of both IPI and TAPI was a more viable option for India, the sources said that India had no problem in participating either of both. Besides, India withdrew from the project over pricing and security issues too, and signed a civilian nuclear deal with the United States in 2008. The success of IPI will strengthen Iran. But unfortunately, weakening Iran is the part of the grand international plot. So Iran's concern is infact justified that India will not participate in the project and no talks are being held for the same. Well Aphrodite, the fruition of trade via extensively constructed Gawadar seaport is concomitant with the stability of Afghanistan and Pakistan, esp Balochistan. As we know the fact that US signed a nuclear deal with India in 2008; it is determined to make India a superpower of Asia to counterbalance China and weaken Pakistan as well as Iran. Balochistan where China has invested billions of dollars to develop Gawadar seaport has great Geo-strategic location, linking central Asia, is considered a great threat by America and Israel. So destabilizing Afghanistan and Pakistan esp Balochistan, is the part of international conspiracy against. The success on utilizing the Gawadar seaport, IPI or even TAPI would cause the grand conspiracy to fray around the seams. Apart from gaining economic dividends why Pakistan would want to see Afghanistan stable, is also worthy of discussion here. The following are the major reasons why Afghanistan should remain stable for Pakistan.
In view of my second question, I would say that I don't know if the majority in Pakistan wants the implementation of Islamic system and whether the statistics provided by the guy is untrue, but I personally believe we desperately need Islam in our life. Pakistan is on the verge of a great mess. We need to take recourse to Islam to preserve, protect and promote of our identity. To form a final perception in view of Hameed Gul's statistics, the following link of the same talk show would be helpful. War on terror - YouTube Regards
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#5
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@azeegum
It seemed that you have used mathematical formula and you know the equilibrium of both projects. Ok ,but what thing confused you is unrevelled or you want views of all members?. There are many pipeline projects which have filed only and could not be constructed. The reason behind is multi-laterism relation ship. Now bilaterlism is by-gone idea.for example during 1990z Kuwait pak pipeline project was filed but could not constructed yet. I have seen your formula of 3-3=0.you did not hypothesize it in constructive way. Yet current scenario and variation formed these approaches. You said India have no problem in containment of gas rather pakistan and iran are dealing with insurgents. Balochistan is not under the control and india is being supported jandollah group. The attack on chahbhar port was significant in this context. But if India has no problem then who sponsored these activist in Iran .??? My following assumptions. 1.IPI GAS project via khuzdar and qalat 2.MARITIME CHAHBHAR AND RUN KUTCH project. 3.TAPI projects in following directions. 1. West EU. 2.China 3.India First assumption has 35%chances for progress. India, pakistan are nuclear state and non-signatory of CTBT. if Iran IPI projects progress, then india will immediately access it. If not then it has already gained something --its Iran card. Thats why India relations with saudi Arabi are far better then pakistan. The permanent seat in security council would be that material gain or something else. But india ,pak relations has smothened.pak has granted MFN status to India shows success of its diplomacy. Second project is out of question . Run of kutch is a disputed area . This will spurred violence and ties of bilateralism will fall flat.it will renewed kashmir conflict. So this proposed pipeline serves as a check to MFN status and flaring the issues with new flame. So 5%chances of this projects ke it would progressed. 3. The TAPI project seems to progress . There are 40%chances of its progress. It would serve not only north south corridor ,but north eastword in case of nabuco pipeline,westword in case of Gazopram pipeline ,and supply of gas to shanghai.the proverbial statement "ek anar so bemar"fit into this criterian.but supply root in afghanistan is under taliban control . So route has been changed . Question is NATO will not gv afghan card to others. This ache-card seemingly prosper in Nebucco pipeline. This is most suitable projecj bt so called talbanization uprooted all developments projects. So pakistan virtually can gain . Yes it can take gas if this project would be shifted to china. Because india 'stance over IPI project is changing constantly. We can't rely on India .pakistan wl gain its economic dividends of transit trade 4m china . This is my analysís.
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#6
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Ans no.1
1.)connect half of the world i.e China and india to CIS via PAK,for trade 2.)connect the future super power(CHINA) to the rest of the world through gawadar port 2.)Connnect the energy corridors of the CIS,Iran,Iraq to china and india via PAK 3.)provide a transit route to landlocked countries for trade via PAK 4.)attraction of international brands to PAK for investment because of our geographical location and cheap labour investers would be dying to set up their manufacturing plants in our country. 5.)Exploitation of the weathers,plains,mountains that we possess and that are unique in the world especially when these assets like nanga parbat,Godwin austin are combined together with our rich and diversified culture,for tourism ANS 2. Islam is understood and taken in different meanings by the people of our country not only within different sects but also within the followers of one sect and hence it is better to not touch this issue.moreover there are high chances that any attempt to implement islamic governing system in our country would be hijacked by a lot of different elements in our society by interpreting islam in a unique way that would serve the purpose of opportunists. the figure of 88% may or may not be correct but the point to ponder is that how much of these 88% people know about islamic system of which they are advocates.Lastly i am of the strong belief that in the failure of any system,followers of that system are more responsible then the system itself.so if democracy is not working it is because of the people not the system.similarly islamic system would be of no use if the attitude of the people does not change.simple. it is a good scapeboat on the part of hameed gul that democracy is not suited to this part of the world.Actually he is hiding the fact that a system that is tested and tried all over the world successfully is a failur here because of us,yes us the people of PAK.had he been correct in his assessment india,a country which is similar to us or perhaps better to say was similar to us in a lot of different ways, would never have progressed .Not that indians are less corrupt than us but only that there are sincere to their country.
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#7
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@azeegum
Hey, u already know the whole deal. Why ask then
I forgot to mention the biggest part of the equation-the IP gas pipeline. ur right about India's about-turn on Iran policy. Until a few years back, things were quite cordial between the two (Delhi Declaration 2003, and the Chahbahar port development as well as other trade and military pacts). But ever since the 2008(?) Indian approval of sanctions against Iran in the UN GA- Iran has become weary of India. Indian FP is focused on giving a nod in every direction to appease all elements but its prime direction is now determined by its relation with USA. Hence showing keenness on IPI is part of that same strategy. Ur right that the outcome of Gwadar's viability is linked to A-tan and Balochistan stability. When I first wrote, I was only describing opportunities for Pak. Alls not lost. Pakistan can take the right steps TODAY to ensure this happens. USA itself wants stability in A-tan now (it also wants to do trade), but thats just not possible without Pakistan getting on the same bandwagon. So what do we do? Engage with India on a trade level (but never forgetting for a moment that it will remain our enemy for ever until Kashmir isnt solved). On the other hand, we need to make it very clear to US/India that stability in A-tan can only be ensured by Pak if stability in Balochistan is promised to us. Be upfront with India on this issue. The problem is, we havent sufficiently raised this issue internationally like India does in its claims of cross border terrorism by Pakistan. So, its going to be a 'conditional swapping' of responsibilities. Since US is stuck neck deep in A-tan, it will have no option but to give in. Now US wants to undermine China but the truth is, when India and China are compared militarily and economically, India is way behind. China is already in a position to challenge US hegemony, militarily if it has to. India is still an underdog of a sort. China has its tentacles reaching out quite deep into US economy (it holds billions in US treasury bonds, US owes CHina in trillions and the fact that it has had to transfer a massive amount of the payment to china in Gold bullion). So, the way we know Chinese, they will not let Gwadar slip out of its pocket. The other day, the Chinese President instructed its navy to 'prepare for war' over South CHina Sea problem. What would ensure Pakistan's interest furthermore is that Paks also negotiating its stake in TAPI. We have no reservations about India joining TAPI otherwise. |
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#8
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@Sadia Shafiq
Well Sadia, nothing has confused me as there is no rocket science here. I am neither trying to hypothesize. Had I been able to do I would not have asked any questions. I am only trying to be able to come up with the sufficiently authenticated knowledge based on the information available. By putting questions I become able to learn a great deal from you through discussions. Before the start of the discussion I knew very little about the IPI, TAPI or even Gawadar seaport or other sources of trade for Pakistan which you and Aphrodite mentioned in your posts. But as soon as I read them mentioned in your answers, I had to study them in detail and I did. So you both basically earn the credit for my present information on the subject under debate. Besides, the discussion that has followed the questions can prove to be handy for others. Type "IPI progress with regard to India" in Google, you will find our this thread in the search result. Look how the discussion proves fruitful. Besides, this is one of the ways I like to learn when it comes to converting my weakness into strength. And Current Affairs or even Pakistan Affairs have never been my cup of tea. They are my Achilles's heel. And now coming back to the topic... Yes Iran on the record has said that no talks were being held between the two on the IPI project. Indian response as denying to show any reluctance in participating in the project could be a diplomatic stance. It is not me who said the same but Iran and India themselves. Here is the source of the news. IPI gas pipeline: India shows renewed interest despite Pakistan and India both are energy deficient countries. We need energy via IPI or TAPI. But we do. You say the chances for IPI are 35% but judging from what India has been doing with regard to IPI and Balochistan, any progress on IPI does not seem imminent on the face of it. If Kutch is a disputed area like you said, then India is left with the option of receiving gas from Iran coming through Balochistan. Pakistan on the record has categorically alleged India to support Balochi rebels. Iran in addition alleges the US to support Jundullah group. The leadership of the Jundullah group has confirmed the US' hand too. Now if India is active in supporting Balochi rebels by providing them weapons and trainings, then how should you expect any progress on IPI since it is concomitant with the stability of Balochistan. It is very much obvious here that for a successful trilateral relation on the project Balochistan conflict needs to be resolved first. There are many other organizations- involved in fueling the same conflict, who have thrown a monkey wrench into an already angry Balochistan rebellion. Pakistan needs to address Balochistan radically on priority basis, failing which will cause Balochistan to separate from Pakistan like Bengaldesh did in 1971. Besides the US does not want IPI to progress and that is the reason why it backs TAPI instead. We all know what Uncle Sam wants means much to our so-called leadership. Our leaders continue to still look forward to the US even if it is our enemy. A line of Jagjeet Singh's poem fills the bill for US-Pak ties here; that is "Tum hamare nahi to kya gham hai- Hum tumhare to hein ye kya kam hai". Yes Pakistanis may be poor people but Pakistan is not a poor country. Allah has blessed us with every kind of resources- human as well as material. What we lack is our ability to manage them usefully. With reference to Kamran Khan's program on Geo news channel, Pakistan's president and prime minister spend 13 and a half and 14 lac per day respectively. While a Pakistani commoner suffers from the dearth of basic requirements of life. This shows that unfortunately the reins of power have always remained in the wrong hands. The day will come when the commoners will drag these corrupt leaders out of their residences beating them with slippers. I wish I just can see this before I die Insha-ALLAH. I can go on with other examples but boiling down the discussion, we can say that every single Pakistani has to be blamed for the present mess in Pakistan and we need to play a constructive role in bringing a change on all levels. Anyways that is not the point. So when I said "no imminent progress on IPI", I just tried to say what the information available suggested me to. Yes grant of MFN is a good move though. Yet it is insufficient. I might be able to construct a final perception after having gone much into details of the same. Talking about your posts broadly you have come up with great analysis. I must appreciate. @Aphrodite The reason why I asked the questions since I knew a great deal, have been discussed above. Aphrodite, let us just replace the term "a moderate Islamic system" with "a practising Islamic system" somewhere in your first post above. There is no "a (more/less) moderate Islamic System" or even no "good/bad Islamic System". With special regard to Islam, it is either "a practising or non-practising Islamic system" or no system at all. Unfortunately, we do not have a practising Islamic System if Pakistan is to be called an Islamic state. The rest is all fine. And I agree with your lines that Islam is practised in Pakistan on tertiary level. As far as the case who to believe- sunni or shia, when it comes to amalgamating an Islamic System, is a controversial issue. But we have to go back in history to locate the roots of our ideology, which led to the creation of Pakistan. Two nation theory served as the foundation of the struggle for Pakistan, which later transformed into Pakistan's ideology. So we already have a framework to shape up our system in a correct fashion. Yes I agree with you that Pakistan should now involve in any co-operation with the US only if the interests of Pakistan are served. Pakistan's ties with the US (based on equality) are the need of the day. The US-Pak ties will have to be restored to bring stability in Afghanistan which in return will guarantee the stability of Pakistan. Pakistan's role becomes significant here. Thanks for coming up with wonderful analysis Aphrodite. @ mjkhan brother I must thank you too for making a valuable contribution to this thread. Yes it is the people who are to be blamed if a system is corrupt. And if we have to improve our system, then why borrowing the patterns from other ideologies since we have our own perfect ideology. Democracy has frayed around the edges for the world. Whereas Islam is a perfect code of life. Pakistan's ideology seeks to derive its sources from the Holy Quran and the Sunnah of our holy prophet Muhammad (PBUH). Frankly speaking, democracy is just a tool for a certain clique of the people who control the West in order to gain their personal interests. Regards
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#9
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@azeegum
Well thanx for appreciating.I am obliged. Your question is increasing my knowledge like yours. No one comment without having sufficient grasp over topic. Exchange of ideas is a good idear and safer via this platform. I Am thankful having such media.now coming to the topic... The question economic dividends should be replaced with india -pak relations.this question have more chances because it overlaps Run--kutch route,MFN --status,baloch insurgency and kashmir issue and terrorism.you can chart out hurdles or constraints and convergences between these two in the context of regionalism and super--power relations.first i will point out hurdles and progress in diplomatic relations.then move toward convergences so to analyse how pakistan can get PKR being isolated with USA and emptied with USDz. MFN STATUS. 1.diminish black trade with India.the greatest source of revenue was handed to custom officers.so this will reduce corruption and receive revenue . This is first previlage which pakistan will receive . 2.business tycoon will invest in indian markets. Or it will increase multi corporates circle .another source of revenue. Private business between two countries will enhance bilteralism. 3. Formal trade between two contries will increase.but granting such status showing pakistan inferiority complex as it is against the WTO rule of business ,if one country grant such status to other,then other has to reciprocate the same. Baloch insurgents. 1.Effectvie police system should be needed to address this problem.first move from government side is very good and constructive.it has replaced police order 2002 by 1861 act.this act enhance police powers too.but problem is govt writ over 90% of baloch area is not established yet.but Quetta is under control.this reform will work and fruit.let cohere this reform with MFN status and consider move of granting this status.well india liberalized its trade policy in 1990 and granted MFN to pakistan.so india moved toward multi--lateralism.inspite of draw back this step is good by giving india opportunity to enter in right way.so railways other infra structure will be built up.that building and entry of India in pakistan decrease its role in insurgency .because suuporting such pressure grouos will destroy its trade relation not only pak to india but from other cou tries.so we have a big relief from indian side if we granted such status to india.s So both IPI and TAPI can be built. If india move toward regionalism.well if both can be suspended pakistan and india relations will enhance its revenue.
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#10
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Well, talking about MFN status alone if we are to discuss it with regard to Pak-India relations, I will too start it with mentioning its benefits in general.
Trade experts consider MFN clauses to have the following benefits:
As MFN clauses promote non-discrimination among countries, they also tend to promote the objective of free trade in general. With regard MFN status to India, there are concerns of traders community. Their constant dread is the local industry to suffer if MFN status is granted. They argue that by granting MFN status to India, the raw material of Pakistan will exhaust. Is their concern justified, remains to be known. But let us just understand it from yesterday's briefing of senate body on the grant of MFN status to India. Secretary Commerce Zafar Memood, while briefing senators here on Thursday said that trade liberalisation with India had partially been linked to signing of four agreements to remove all tariff and non-tariff barriers that hinder Pakistani exports to Indian market. These agreements are Customs Cooperation Agreement, Mutual Recognition Agreement, Redressal of Grievances Agreement and Preferential Tariff under Safta. According to the secretary, Pakistan was going to change its trade regime with India from ‘positive list’ to ‘negative list’. The items in the negative list, however, will not be allowed for trade with India. Local industries have initially proposed 1,000 items for placement in the negative list, the secretary said. Currently, Pakistan has 1,958 items in the ‘positive list’ for trade with India. The secretary said the negative list would be trimmed to a reasonable level. He assured that sufficient level of protection would be ensured to local industries before completion of trade liberalisation with India to culminate on granting full MFN status to India. Though India demanded granting of MFN in one go but he said the ministry of commerce sequenced it. “The ministry of commerce will give a transparent presentation to the cabinet in February on MFN to make final decision,” Mr Zafar said. He was found admitting in his briefing that after Pakistan gives full grant of MFN status to India, trade balance would remain in favour of the later. But, he said a full fledged campaign will be launched to abreast local industries of challenges and opportunities in the post- MFN trade regime with India. Well here both 'positive list' and 'negative list' to be used in MFN related trade with India, is needed, if you can provide me Sadia. Studying the list will help in concluding whether the concern of Pakistani traders arguing that their raw material will exhaust and thus local industry will suffer, is justified or biased. Do pass on your analysis about the same. Talking about your view if MFN status to India can reduce Indian involvement in supporting Balochistan insurgency... Many in Pakistan still believe that Pak-India ties should not improve unless Kashmir issue is not resolved and even India completely restrains from supporting Balochi rebels. What do you say? Regards
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