Disruption of grain to oil supply?
By Usman Karim
Disruption of Grain To Oil Supply
100 Year ago what Russia did to the Ottman Empire ,world powers can do to Iran . , however, it won't require a world war.But they are doing with Alternative way to By passing Iran,Economic sanaction, In Same way USA did with Russia bypassing him and make (Ceyhan pipeline ) from Azerbijan via Gorgea to Turkey (Cheyan).
100 years ago Diplomatic interest in the Straits was reawakened during the Italo-Turkish War of 1911-12 when the Straits were closed to commercial traffic. the Russians sent 90 percent of their grain exports through the Turkish Straits out into the Mediterranean. Closure of the Dardanelles thus meant that millions of tons of grain were spoiled, bringing ruin to Russia's agricultural economy and reducing its export revenues for the year by 30 percent, the closure threatened Russia's commercial interests.To add to Russia's troubles, German Liman Von Sanders was placed in 1913 at the head of theTurkish army corps in Constantinople. Russia saw the Straits come precariously close to being under the control of a German general.
The Dardanellesis a 61km (28 mile) strait between Europe and Asiatic Turkey. The maximum width is 7km and in the area known as the Narrows, the distance is no more than 1,600 metres. The Dardanelles Straits are overlooked by high cliffs on the Gallipoli Peninsula. The Dardanelles Strait, a vital transportation bridge between the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea, is a narrow channel of water that connects the Aegean Sea to the Sea of Marmara.It separates Asian Turkey from European Turkey (Trace), thus it also separates the two continents.
Fast forward 100 years and free passage through another strategic strait, the Strait of Hormuz, is endangered. This time it is the disruption of the oil supply, not grain, that has great powers vexed, and it is Iran that's doing the threatening. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and its Sunni neighbors with China's help are assuming Russia's role in altering the world's geopolitics.
This is the only the Beginning , Two pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz have become operational in last couple of weeks. Alarmed by the Iranian threats, the UAE has completed its long-delayed ,open the Abu Dubi oil Pipelines .The 48-inch-diameter pipeline That can now pump as much as 1.5 million barrels per day from Habshan UAE's western desert in Abu Dhabi some 370-km (230 miles) oil to Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman.
This represents 75 percent of the UAE's oil exports , and this capacity can be easily expanded to almost 2.4 million barrels per day. In addition to becoming the new outlet to the Arabian Sea, Fujairah will have storage space for 12 million barrels as well as three sub-sea pipelines and mooring buoys for deepwater tanker loading. The first cargo loaded on last Sunday with oil pumped from western fields in Abu Dhabi across the mountainous north-east tip of the Arabian peninsula is to be shipped to Pakistan ,Pakistan is going to have gas pipeline from Iran.The bulk of UAE's oil is exported to Asia.
Saudi Arabia has also invested in infrastructure that enables it to bypass the Iranians.giving Riyadh scope to export more of its crude from Red Sea terminals should Iran try to block the Strait of Hormuz, In June, it reopened the Iraq Pipeline through Saudi Arabia (IPSA), which was confiscated from Iraq in 2001 and travels from Iraq across Saudi Arabia to a Red Sea port north of Yanbu. This pipeline will be able to carry 1.65 million barrels per day.
Together, these two pipelines could eventually reduce oil traffic in the Strait by 25 percent.
Flows through the Strait last year accounted for about 35 percent of all sea-borne traded oil, or almost 20 percent of oil traded worldwide.Almost 17 million barrels of oil were shipped between the northern tip of Oman and the southern coast of Iran in 2011, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.More than a third of the world's seaborne oil exports pass through the narrow Strait of Hormuz from the oilfields of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Qatar's liquefied natural gas exports are all shipped through Hormuz.
There are two more project in pipe line to connecting Saudi Arabia to Oman and Yemen are under consideration. Iraq also has an outlet, which is currently being expanded, to the port of Ceyhan in Turkey via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. Current war is going on in Syria Just to replaces Syrian President Bashar al-Assad a strong allay to Shia regime who is threathing the house of Saud , Iraq may also revive the Iraq-Syria pipeline as another means of shipping crude from southern fields to the Mediterranean.
The Strait of Hormuz is a strategically important strait or narrow strip of water that links the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman . The strait is only 21 to 60 miles (33 to 95 km) wide throughout its length. The Strait of Hormuz is important because it is a geographic chokepoint and a main artery for the transport of oil from the Middle East. Iran and Oman are the countries nearest to the Strait of Hormuz and share territorial rights over the waters. Due to its importance, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz several times in recent history.
The Iranian economy has seen anemic growth, high unemployment, rising consumer prices, and a sharply deteriorating business climate. And it keeps getting worse.Iran’s average annual growth rate is less than 3 percent, its unemployment rate is about 15 percent, and its inflation rate is near 20 percent (with food price inflation exceeding 50 percent). On the brighter side, Iran has an ample balance of payments surplus, an external debt of about 6 percent of GDP, and a record $90 billion in foreign exchange reserves—equivalent to a year and a half’s worth of imports.
Compounding those bleak economic prospects, “smart” economic sanctions imposed on the Iranian economy have been replaced by comprehensive ones, a subsidies reform program undertaken by the Ahmadinejad administration has backfired, and the value of Iran’s currency, the rial, has declined steeply. Still, Tehran has failed to decisively address these problems. Instead, it continues to funnel its resources into bolstering the country’s military capabilities while the economic pressure builds.The European Union, for its part, has frozen the Iranian central bank’s assets, restricted trade with Iran’s petrochemical industry, and halted the sale of gold, diamonds, and other precious items to Iran. Starting from July 1, 2012, the EU has. impose a ban on oil imports from Iran.
Tit for tate Iran's parliament Up to half of Iran’s parliament was said to support a Bill backing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, passage for a fifth of the world’s oil. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will make a final decision. about half of the 290 members of Iran's parliament are backing a bill favoring the closing of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, passageway for a fifth of the world's oil.
The bill is to block passage through the Strait to oil tankers linked to countries applying new European Union (EU) sanctions a measure that would apply to 27 EU counties and the United States and violate the Law of the Sea Treaty, which permits passage through the Strait in both directions even though part of the navigation route falls within Iran's territorial waters.US decision to maintain two carrier strike groups in the region has been described as “a routine activity” by Iran.
But the vast US military buildup in the region, which was bolstered when the Pentagon dispatched an additional 15,000 troops to the neighboring nation of Kuwait, was only the latest step in an obvious attempt by Washington to strengthen its military capabilities in the region.
However since 1988, when the United States managed to destroy some 25 per cent of Iran’s larger naval capability during Operation Praying Mantis, Iran has spent the last two decades preparing its Revolutionary Guard naval forces to exploit the vulnerabilities of the United States’ larger conventional forces.
According to Revolutionary Guard commander Brigadier General Jafaari, "The enemy is far more advanced technologically than we are, we have been using what is called asymmetric warfare methods… our forces are now well prepared for it," he said, as cited by Global Bearings.
Ultimately, the latest round of brinkmanship between Iran and the West may force Iran to the negotiating table over its uranium enrichment program.
100 years ago Ottomans empire lose Libya due to closing of strait ,What Iran is going to get after it's threat to closing the strait.It's already going to lose it allay Syria to westren power &its sunni allay without using any steel carrier on ground.Iran must learn lesson from Ottomans empire for their mistake.
Usman Karim based in lahore pakistan **************.com
Last edited by Amna; Monday, July 23, 2012 at 03:38 PM.
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