Backstage changing tactics..
 

What are the rumors... clash of civilization/Destabilization/US in Middle East/Revival of new world order.... what is coming in 2012.I have this feeling..?? What is your opinion?

[QUOTE=mak8666;481611]What are the rumors... clash of civilization/Destabilization/US in Middle East/Revival of new world order.... what is coming in 2012.I have this feeling..?? What is your opinion?[/QUOTE]

At many points in history, the world has been much much more problem in the coming years is the global economy, especially that of the European Union. That and the fact that the global economy isn't doing very well overall; with growth having slowed in China (due to fall in exports to the EU) and India. There's a possibility that large Western economies like the US, UK, France etc may have severe debt troubles, but I'm 100% that there won't be a total collapse as some people predict.

Whether Pakistan will survive in its current form in the coming years is a matter of debate, what with the economic problems, the TTP, ethnic and sectarian violence etc etc.

Afghanistan too will most probably become involved in a civil-war post 2014.

[SIZE="3"]Neither china nor Russia its going to be India, the next potential economic power.
America Will be forced to face economic crises in face of increasing defense expenditures.
EU will collapse by the reaction of American lenders who shall take their money back.
Pakistan will get much benefit through global recession because exporters and importers will loose previous markets and Pakistan will be potential market. [/SIZE]

[QUOTE=sabahatbhutta;481976][SIZE="3"]Neither china nor Russia its going to be India, the next potential economic power.
[/SIZE][/QUOTE]

I don't know why people say Russia will become an great economic future because it simply won't. In fact, most experts agree that there won't be any real "superpower" in the future; sure China is growing, but its growth depends on exports, especially to the EU and the US. Indeed the crisis in the EU has led to a slow-down in Chinese economic growth already. My point is that the major economies of the world are now so integrated that none can prosper if the others fail so your point that the US and EU will face a crisis and India will reap the benefits is totally invalid. A recession in the EU or in the US on the scale of the Great Depression will push the entire world into recession.

[QUOTE]America Will be forced to face economic crises in face of increasing defense expenditures.[/QUOTE]
Would you care to explain how? Your post shows that you have a pretty poor understanding of economics; the US indeed face long-term slow growth and a ballooning national debt, but defense expenditure is not the problem. America will need to reform their social security system at one point or another to rein in the increasing budget deficits. At some time, Americans will have to face the reality: that they can not retire as early as before and that the government can't always pamper them.

I think that Mitt Romney does have the potential to put the American economy back on track especially his plans for energy independence by 2020.


[QUOTE]Pakistan will get much benefit through global recession because exporters and importers will loose previous markets and Pakistan will be potential market. [/QUOTE]
Are you seriously saying that Pakistan will provide a major market to exporters like China, Germany and Japan?

[QUOTE=Hassan02;481994] My point is that the major economies of the world are now so integrated that none can prosper if the others fail so your point that the US and EU will face a crisis and India will reap the benefits is totally invalid. A recession in the EU or in the US on the scale of the Great Depression will push the entire world into recession.[/QUOTE]

[SIZE="3"]Only 5 out of 15 largest trading partners of India are European countries including America. Indian economy is not that much associated with EU and America so it can not be harmed by a recession in EU. India is a market of more than 1.2 billion people.Its not a small market dear.[/SIZE]

[QUOTE=Hassan02;481994]
Would you care to explain how? Your post shows that you have a pretty poor understanding of economics; the US indeed face long-term slow growth and a ballooning national debt, but defense expenditure is not the problem. America will need to reform their social security system at one point or another to rein in the increasing budget deficits. At some time, Americans will have to face the reality: that they can not retire as early as before and that the government can't always pamper them.

I think that Mitt Romney does have the potential to put the American economy back on track especially his plans for energy independence by 2020.[/QUOTE]

[SIZE="3"]which Government would dare to cut the social benefits. This move has great political repercussions. defense expenditures are really increasing and won't decrease even if America leave Afghanistan. Afghan government would need constant financial aid from Americans. Mitt Romney is also a politician don't forget that.[/SIZE]

[QUOTE=Hassan02;481994]
Are you seriously saying that Pakistan will provide a major market to exporters like China, Germany and Japan?[/QUOTE]

[SIZE="3"]Pakistan's trade share with EU and China is almost equal in size. It won't be a major market but an average market with bright opportunities in Natural Resource exploration, Heavy Industries, Railway, Air Transport etc. these sectors are less exploited and are glamorous enough for those foreign investors, who are pessimistic of a future in EU markets. Moreover the energy sector is a great potential profit extractor. Pakistan is a growing demands market that each investor dreams of. [/SIZE]

[QUOTE=sabahatbhutta;482214][SIZE="3"]Only 5 out of 15 largest trading partners of India are European countries including America. Indian economy is not that much associated with EU and America so it can not be harmed by a recession in EU. India is a market of more than 1.2 billion people.Its not a small market dear.[/SIZE]
[/SIZE][/QUOTE]

India's main export partners are the USA, UAE, Singapore, China and the EU. As I said earlier, global economies are extremely integrated right now and a huge recession in the USA will take down China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore etc with it. In fact, THIS HAS ALREADY HAPPENED. In the wake of 2008 recession, growth slowed in Germany, Japan, China and South Korea (they are all exporters) and thousands of manufacturers were forced to close. If, as YOU say, the American economy collapss (it won't, but lets assume it does), the results will be much much worse. Also, the demand for oil will fall, pushing down the price (same happened in 2008), hurting the Arab countries.


[QUOTE][SIZE="3"]which Government would dare to cut the social benefits. This move has great political repercussions. [/SIZE][/QUOTE]
Maybe you are not familiar with American politics because the Americans have made many tough decisions in the past. Just last year, when Obama needed the support of the Republicans to raise the debt ceiling, the Republicans used this as a bargaining chip to demand that the budget deficit be reduced. Many services (including education) suffered major cuts.



[QUOTE]Pakistan's trade share with EU and China is almost equal in size. It won't be a major market but an average market with bright opportunities in Natural Resource exploration, Heavy Industries, Railway, Air Transport etc. these sectors are less exploited and are glamorous enough for those foreign investors, who are pessimistic of a future in EU markets. Moreover the energy sector is a great potential profit extractor. Pakistan is a growing demands market that each investor dreams of.
[/QUOTE]

Chinese exports are currently around 1900 trillion while their imports are in the neighborhood of 1700 billion dollars. Pakistan's exports to China are around 2.5 billion and imports are around 7.5 billion which means that trade with Pakistan is negligible to the Chinese. Furthermore, no investor is interested in a country that is being torn apart by terrorism and religious extremism.

[QUOTE=Hassan02;482314]India's main export partners are the USA, UAE, Singapore, China and the EU. As I said earlier, global economies are extremely integrated right now and a huge recession in the USA will take down China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore etc with it. In fact, THIS HAS ALREADY HAPPENED. In the wake of 2008 recession, growth slowed in Germany, Japan, China and South Korea (they are all exporters) and thousands of manufacturers were forced to close. If, as YOU say, the American economy collapss (it won't, but lets assume it does), the results will be much much worse. Also, the demand for oil will fall, pushing down the price (same happened in 2008), hurting the Arab countries. [/QUOTE]

[SIZE="3"]Brother world is going back to Gold Exchange system. So anything associated with dollar is going to suffer. BRICS is making arrangements for the future. Just waiting for that time.[/SIZE]


[QUOTE=Hassan02;482314]
Maybe you are not familiar with American politics because the Americans have made many tough decisions in the past. Just last year, when Obama needed the support of the Republicans to raise the debt ceiling, the Republicans used this as a bargaining chip to demand that the budget deficit be reduced. Many services (including education) suffered major cuts. [/QUOTE]


[SIZE="3"]And after that decision Obama got a decline in popularity.[/SIZE]

[QUOTE=Hassan02;482314]
Chinese exports are currently around 1900 trillion while their imports are in the neighborhood of 1700 billion dollars. Pakistan's exports to China are around 2.5 billion and imports are around 7.5 billion which means that trade with Pakistan is negligible to the Chinese. Furthermore, no investor is interested in a country that is being torn apart by terrorism and religious extremism.[/QUOTE]

[SIZE="3"]after the recession there comes the period of recovery. You are still entangled in the period of recession while i am talking about the recovery period. Investors would find no other place to invest except South Asia. After a decade Pakistan may not be in a turmoil. i am talking about possibilities. As Economics is a science of Uncertainty and Possibilities. [/SIZE]

[QUOTE=sabahatbhutta;482371][SIZE="3"]Brother world is going back to Gold Exchange system. So anything associated with dollar is going to suffer. BRICS is making arrangements for the future. Just waiting for that time.[/SIZE]
[/QUOTE]

No its not, please stop listening to Zaid Hamid and read a good economics text book.

[QUOTE][SIZE="3"]And after that decision Obama got a decline in popularity.[/SIZE][/QUOTE]

No he did not. In fact, since it was Republicans who caused the delay in raising the debt ceiling, Obama also blamed them for causing the USA to lose its AAA rating. BTW, Obama's own deficit reduction plan was pretty extensive. And also, an approval rating around 50% is considered pretty good in the USA.



[QUOTE][SIZE="3"]after the recession there comes the period of recovery. You are still entangled in the period of recession while i am talking about the recovery period. Investors would find no other place to invest except South Asia. After a decade Pakistan may not be in a turmoil. i am talking about possibilities. As Economics is a science of Uncertainty and Possibilities. [/SIZE][/QUOTE]
Please read my post again, I'm not stuck in the past. I was merely telling you what will happen if the US economy collapses (as you said it will) or if there is a really big recession. Also, economics is based on supply and demand; makes no sense setting up a automobile factory in China (or anywhere else in the world) if there is no demand for it.

[QUOTE=Hassan02;482384]No its not, please stop listening to Zaid Hamid and read a good economics text book.[/QUOTE]

[SIZE="3"]Zaid Hamid is not an economist :)
please recommend some. :))
I think I have forgotten my masters knowledge want to revise it. :))[/SIZE]

[QUOTE=Hassan02;482384]
No he did not. In fact, since it was Republicans who caused the delay in raising the debt ceiling, Obama also blamed them for causing the USA to lose its AAA rating. BTW, Obama's own deficit reduction plan was pretty extensive. And also, an approval rating around 50% is considered pretty good in the USA.
[/QUOTE]

[SIZE="3"]Don't just confine yourself to American economy. give it a broader view. American people are protesting against expected cut in social benefits. It will become difficult and difficult for future governments.[/SIZE]

[QUOTE=Hassan02;482384]
Please read my post again, I'm not stuck in the past. I was merely telling you what will happen if the US economy collapses (as you said it will) or if there is a really big recession. Also, economics is based on supply and demand; makes no sense setting up a automobile factory in China (or anywhere else in the world) if there is no demand for it.[/QUOTE]

[SIZE="3"]I have mentioned some specific sectors in my post. demand in those sectors can't decrease to depths. world's increasing population is a guarantee that demand won't decrease that much.[/SIZE]

[QUOTE=sabahatbhutta;482485]Zaid Hamid is not an economist :)
please recommend some. :))
[/QUOTE]

No, he's a "Defense Analyst" although God only knows where he received his training :D


[QUOTE]American people are protesting against expected cut in social benefits. It will become difficult and difficult for future governments.[/QUOTE]

Actually it will become easier for governments when the effects become more apparent. Right now, deficits and debt are just numbers for Americans. Once they start feeling the effects in their real life, it will be easier for the government to do something about it. Americans have made tough decisions in the past and I'm sure they will in the future too :)


[QUOTE]I have mentioned some specific sectors in my post. demand in those sectors can't decrease to depths. world's increasing population is a guarantee that demand won't decrease that much.[/QUOTE]
There are some sectors like food and health where demand doesn't decrease much, but a recession decreases demand in some extent in all sectors because people tend to tighten their belts in times of economic instability.