Upside of addressing climate change

MARTIN WOLF
WILL the inter-governmental climate conference in Paris in December be a decisive turn in the world’s efforts to curb risks of catastrophic climate change? At present this is highly unlikely but not inconceivable. It will certainly not be enough of itself. But a combination of new technological opportunities and new approaches to a deal opens up fresh opportunities. The conference might mark the end of the beginning, the point at which serious efforts to change our trajectory begin.

In his book Why Are We Waiting?, Nicholas Stern, author of the Stern Review on the economics of climate change, lays out the challenges and opportunities with clarity and passion.

He advances three propositions. First, humanity’s overriding goals for the 21st century should be the elimination of mass poverty and risk of catastrophic climate change. Second, these goals are complementary. Third, the case for early action is overwhelming, both because greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for centuries and be*cause investments in energy, transport and urban infrastructure will lock in the carbon intensity of our economies.

These arguments rest on the view that climate risks are large and the costs of addressing them bearable. Doing nothing implies that risks are negligible. That position implies an absurd degree of certainty. On the costs, we will never know if we do not try. But the evidence is ever greater that what Professor Stern calls an ‘energy industrial revolution’ is within our grasp. If so, the long-run economic costs of addressing climate risk could be quite modest: maybe as little as the loss of one year’s growth of consumption by 2050.

Yet the path for emissions that is needed to deliver a 50pc chance of limiting the increase in temperature to 2C above pre-industrial levels is also radically different from that of the past. Hitherto, global emissions of carbon dioxide per head have risen, not fallen — despite all the global conferences — as the rapid growth of emerging economies, notably China, has swamped feeble efforts to curb emissions elsewhere. On anything like our present path the necessary declines in emissions will not occur. Humanity will have made an irreversible gamble on the chance that sceptics are, in fact, right.

Fortunately, new technological opportunities are opening up. Potential exists for a revolution in energy generation and storage, in energy savings, in transport, and in carbon capture and storage. Some call for the equivalent of the Apollo space programme of the 1960s, but for research and development in low-carbon energy. The opportunity is also in investment: choosing carbon-intensive technologies for energy, transport and urban infrastructure would lock in a perilous future. But to achieve the target, emissions per unit of output need to fall seven- or eight-fold by 2050. The challenge is daunting.

This revolution will not happen without state support. It would be helped by eliminating subsidies for fossil fuels, estimated by the International Monetary Fund at $5.3tn for 2015 (6.5pc of global output), with the inclusion of spillover effects, such as air pollution. This is three orders of magnitude larger than state spending on research and development in renewable energy.

The decision has now been made to sidestep the obstacles to reaching a binding global agreement that delivers a price of carbon. This makes sense. Reaching agreement on the allocation of tradeable pollution rights across border is impossible. Agreeing on a common tax rate is almost as difficult.

Furthermore, if countries are asked to make binding commitments, they will limit their promises to what they know they can deliver. Instead, countries are being encouraged to put forward ‘nationally determined contributions’. While these fall far short of what is needed, they are moving in the right direction, particularly now that China and the US are actively engaged.

Moreover, analysts are optimistic that, with the right push from governments, a virtuous cycle of technological innovation combined with reduced local pollution and other benefits might make the rapid adoption of low-carbon technologies and ways of living beneficial to national economies, without taking account of the impact on the climate. If so, reliance on national plans would make yet more sense. National plans are also more likely to overcome domestic vested interests if developed in parallel. But the need for rapid cross-border dissemination of innovation and for assistance to poorer countries in making investments in new energy and transport systems remains. Richer countries will have to contribute.

For those persuaded of the size and irreversible nature of the gamble humanity is taking with the climate, the news is both bad and good. The bad news is that the coming Paris conference will not deliver a credible path away from the potential disaster. At best, it will slow the pace at which we approach such a point. The good news is that in the longer term the relatively pragmatic approach now being adopted, combined with the likelihood of accelerating technological change, makes movement on to a path away from disaster more likely.

Whether this will in practice be enough to turn around the supertanker of global energy-related emissions in time is uncertain. But it is possible. It will also need a great deal more effort and determination in the coming decade. That effort must at least begin with the best possible agreement in Paris.

martin.wolf@ft.com
http://www.dawn.com/news/1216818/ups...climate-change
Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, November 2nd, 2015

‘Climate change knows no national borders,’

‘Climate change knows no national borders,’ UN chief says
With the “deadline” for concluding a universal climate agreement just four weeks away, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon today warned that despite months of talks and critical pledges on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, key issues still remain in play – on equity and differentiation, on finance and ambition – requiring world leaders to give clear guidance to their negotiators to seek compromise and reach a fair, universal deal at the upcoming UN climate conference in Paris.

“Climate change carries no passport and knows no national borders. Countries must work toward the common interest, beyond narrow national interests,” declared Mr. Ban in a briefing to an informal meeting of the General Assembly on the ongoing preparations for the 21st Conference of States Parties to the UN Framework convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), known as COP21, to be held in the French capital from 30 November to 11 December.

Telling UN Member States that while he is optimistic that after months of talks and rising calls “from all sectors” that their Governments will conclude a meaningful agreement in Paris, some key issues have proven too challenging for negotiators to resolve on their own, including on equity and differentiation, finance and ambition.

“I will be very actively engaging with Heads of State and Government over the next four weeks to help them unlock these issues. Ultimate responsibility for success in Paris rests firmly in their hands,” said the Secretary-General, pledging to urge world leaders to tell their negotiators that now is the time for compromise and consensus building.

Indeed, he continued, bridges must be built to span the traditional divides between developed and developing countries. “A meaningful agreement must be universal and fair. It must address urgency. And it must strengthen opportunity ¬– not just for some, but for all people in the world.”

The UN chief said that for Paris to be a success, it must deliver on several key fronts: “The agreement must be durable and flexible. It must be rooted in solidarity. And it must be credible in its response to the urgency of climate change, including by providing the financial and other means to support this response.”

Welcoming the recent agreement between the Presidents of China and France in Beijing that they have agreed to have a 5 year review process, Mr. Ban said a Paris agreement must not lock in a level of mitigation ambition that undermines the below-2 degrees goal. “There can be no backsliding. Current ambition must be the floor, not the ceiling, for future efforts.”

On resources, he said an agreement must provide for credible means of implementation, including climate financing. Developed countries must keep their pledge to provide $100 billion a year by 2020. All concerned – both developed and developing countries – must be part of a consultative, politically credible process for defining the $100 billion trajectory.

“I call on developed countries to make public finance pledges before Paris that balance both adaptation and mitigation needs. This is essential for building the trust that is needed to secure a meaningful, universal agreement,” the Secretary-General explained, adding that developed countries must also take the lead in, and enhance their support for, financing post-2020.

Overall, he said that an agreement in Paris must mark a decisive and irreversible turning point in the world’s collective response to the climate challenge. “The impacts of climate change are rapidly increasing. The world’s collective ambition must increase, too. Action must be fuelled by a sense of urgency as well as opportunity. We must ensure that all countries are part of the solution, and that the benefits of low-carbon, climate-resilient growth are realized by all.”

Mr. Ban said that he would continue to do everything in his power to help shepherd a meaningful global agreement. “I will call on your leaders to own this agreement, and to closely guide your ministers and negotiators. I will continue to encourage the path of compromise for the common good.”

“Alongside an agreement, I will also continue to work with the COP Presidents and the UNFCCC Executive Secretary to advance the Lima-Paris Action Agenda,” which, he said, builds on the many, successful partnerships that were showcased at the Climate Summit he convened last year.

“At this time, solutions are what we urgently need. By working together, we can and we will reach a meaningful, universal climate agreement in Paris,” the Secretary-General concluded.

Via UN News Centre