The prospect of Donald Trump winning the race to the White House has joined China’s slowing economy, the Greek debt crisis and Britain’s EU referendum as a major threat to the global economy, according to a respected risk analysis firm.

The Economist Intelligence Unit said the Republican frontrunner could prove a dangerous world leader, damaging global trade, stirring up trouble with Beijing and adding to instability in the Middle East.


The EIU placed the possibility of Trump being sworn in as US president next January sixth on their latest list of global threats, as serious as a resurgence of jihadi terrorism, and only marginally less risky than the collapse of the eurozone.


The US property tycoon had been “exceptionally hostile towards free trade” during his campaign, and had advocated putting troops on the ground in Syria to fight Islamic State, the unit said.

“In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war – and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016.”

It added: “His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.”


Trump is currently the favourite to win the Republican nomination, having stormed to success in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina and Missouri on Tuesday.

His bombastic campaign has both captivated and horrified many in America and beyond. In January, British MPs debated a petition to have him banned from the UK after he called for a “total and complete shutdown” on Muslims entering the US.

On Thursday, China’s party-controlled Global Times said the billionaire could herald a rising trend of protectionism and isolationism in the US.

“The rise of a racist in the US political area worries the whole world,” the newspaper said.

According to the EIU, there was “a moderate probability” of Trump winning November’s presidential election, and serious conflict in Washington if he succeeded.

“Although we do not expect Mr Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn,” it said.

“It is worth noting that the innate hostility within the Republican hierarchy towards Mr Trump, combined with the inevitable virulent Democratic opposition, will see many of his more radical policies blocked in Congress – albeit such internal bickering will also undermine the coherence of domestic and foreign policymaking.”

The economic impact would be felt widely, but particularly in the US itself.


(THE GUARDIAN)