A winter of Iran’s discontent?

Jan 18th 2008
From Economist.com

Iran's president is under pressure at home

IF THE Israelis were ever to attack, Iran would “make them regret it” with a “fierce response” said Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s president, on Thursday January 17th. He spoke after Israel announced that it had tested a ballistic missile which, according to one Israeli radio station, was capable of carrying an “unconventional payload”, interpreted by some to mean nuclear weapons.

Mr Ahmadinejad's fiery talk goes down well at home, and the stand-off with the United Nations, and in particular with the United States, over Iran’s nuclear-weapons programme continues. But the scope for it to draw attention from his domestic troubles may be declining. The National Intelligence Estimate in America, last November, which concluded that Iran had suspended work on its nuclear-weapons programme (the weapons-building bit, but not the uranium-enrichment bit), has made it less likely that the United States would launch a pre-emptive military attack on Iran. In turn, ordinary Iranians have less to distract them from the economic shortcomings of Mr Ahmadinejad’s rule. Within the country much debate is focused on more mundane economic matters ahead of parliamentary elections in March.

Mr Ahmadinejad, a former mayor of Tehran, was elected as president in 2005 promising to revive Iran’s flagging economy and to root out corruption, not to goad America. But, despite booming prices for oil and gas, the economy has managed to grow only moderately, by between 4% and 6% in recent years. Nor are revenues being spent wisely. Mr Ahmadinejad makes frequent promises of big projects while on tours of rural areas, but much government cash goes on wasteful subsidies on domestic fuel consumption.

Gas is the most pressing concern. Amid a confusing dispute about prices and pipeline repairs, Turkmenistan has cut supplies to Iran. Although Iran has the second-largest known gas reserves in the world, inadequate infrastructure (partly a result of the drying up of investment from the West after American sanctions) and high exports mean that it relies on its neighbour for a small but important share of supply, to meet domestic requirements. Without these imports, many of Iran’s provinces have been without gas for heating just as the country suffers one of the coldest winters in decades. Frustrated residents are blaming the government. Protests have broken out in Qaemshahr and Gorgan, cities in northern Iran where the weather has been particularly bad. That should worry a president who prides himself on being a “man of the people” and who relies on support from the urban and rural poor.

Opponents of Mr Ahmadinejad are daring to voice criticism openly. According to Rooz, an Iranian reformist website, several deputies in parliament have accused the government of economic misrule, asking for example why gas is exported to Pakistan when Iranians are freezing because of a lack of it. At least eight people are reported to have died as a result of the recent cold snap. Aftab-e Yazd, a reformist daily, points to frustration over petrol rationing and rapidly rising prices. Mr Ahmadinejad had previously claimed that his government had cut inflation, but it is rising fast and may in fact be above 20%. A recent acknowledgement by the president, in December, that inflation remains a problem suggests that he is aware of disgruntlement.

Nor are reformists the only ones sniping. Jomhouri-e Eslami, a conservative newspaper that supports Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president and now the chairman of the Assembly of Experts, accuses Mr Ahmadinejad of having no economic plan. Both reformist and conservative opponents of the government are hoping to capitalise on the current discontent in the forthcoming parliamentary elections.

In mid-January candidates registered all over the country for the elections. It is then up to the Council of Guardians to decide who may stand. Opponents of Mr Ahmadinejad fear that candidates who do not support the president will be blocked.

Candidates who are able to stand are, however, likely to do well as dissatisfaction with the government grows. For example Ali Larijani, Iran’s former chief nuclear negotiator, has put himself forward for parliament. He is a close ally of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, whose recent, albeit mild, criticisms of the president have generated speculation of a rift at the top of government. Although the ayatollah is still likely to back the president’s candidates in the election, tiny chinks may be appearing in Iran’s leadership just as the mood turns icy on the streets.