Demography bomb of Pakistan if exploded?
Usman karim
Pakistan has an estimated population of over 169 million inhabitants in 2008 During 1951-98, Pakistan's urban population expanded sevenfold. And by the next decade the population is expected to exceed 176 million.Non-governmental and international sources report that Pakistan's current population is estimated to be 165,803,560 (July 2006 est).[In the past, the country's population had a relatively high growth rate that has, however, been moderated by declining fertility and birth rates. Dramatic social changes have led to rapid urbanization and the emergence of megacities. During 1990-2003, Pakistan sustained its historical lead as the most urbanized nation in South Asia, with city dwellers making up 34% of its population.Pakistan has a multicultural and multi ethnical society and hosts one of the largest refugee populations in the world as well as a young population. Over the last 80 years, Pakistan's population exploded from 20 million in 1927 to 169 million today. If the United States had grown at the same rate as Pakistan, instead of 300 million the U.S. population would now be 960 million. With a median age of 18 instead of 36, this much larger U.S. might well be seeing the high levels of crime, violence, and radical activity that are threatening Pakistan today. Since 1950 Pakistan's rapid demographic increase has combined with rising salaries to assure that the young men of Pakistan's constantly growing youth bulges are better nourished and educated than ever before. But Pakistan's population has grown so quickly, even an expanding economy can not keep up. For millions of young men, ambitions and hopes for a successful future cannot be realized. Attractive jobs matching ever rising ambitions are hard to find. Today, three or four Pakistani boys compete for one place in society, or for the property left by their father. Angry, frustrated young men are easily recruited into radical groups and terror organizations. To them not only the spoils of victory but even the honors of a hero's death become an option. In his cohort of 60 to 64 year olds, Pakistan has just 1.6 million men. However, in the prime fighting age cohort of 20 to 24 there are 8.6 million potential warriors who are followed by 10.7 million boys aged 0 to 4. This rapid upsurge, which I call demographic armament, translates into every 1,000 pensioners being followed by 5,400 men of military age, who in turn will one day be replaced by 6,700 boys. The United States, by comparison, is in demographic neutrality. 1,570 young men, who will in turn be succeeded by 1,540 boys, succeed every 1,000 older American men. The United Kingdom is in demographic decline: 1,000, to 1,186, to 970. My native country Germany provides an example for demographic capitulation. It goes from 1,000 via 1,150 to 820. (Editor's note: See Clark Whelton's "A Demographic Theory of War" in THE DAILY STANDARD for more on demographic armament, neutrality, and capitulation as described by Gunnar Heinsohn.) Pakistan's bloodletting will not be ending soon. A burgeoning population of young men shares the Taliban's dream of a nuclear-armed Islam, with a united Afghanistan and Pakistan as its core territory and led by a new Caliphate. Although the fertility rate among Pakistani women has declined from close to six in 2000 to an average of four children each in 2007, their sisters in Afghanistan are still having close to seven. That is why in the Hindu Kush every 1,000 pensioners are followed by 5,570 men of best military age and 11,130 boys aged 0 to 4. This means the troubles in Pakistan and Afghanistan will be with us for at least 20 more years. NATO is now demanding that Musharraf return Pakistan to democratic rule. But is NATO or anybody else ready to handle Musharraf's radical Islamist opponents if they get the upper hand in Pakistan, either by winning free elections in the style of Algeria and Gaza, or by winning a civil war? Is NATO or anybody else ready to send an American family's only son or a European family's only child into mortal danger in order to prevent third and fourth sons in Pakistan and Afghanistan from killing each other and forcing the burqa over their sisters' eyes? In the 45 to 60 age bracket to which most political leader belong, the U.S. and U.K. together still have a four-to-one advantage over the male populations of Afghanistan and Pakistan, 36 million vs. 9 million. However, in the 0-14 bracket, the cohort that will have to fight future wars, there are only 36 million Anglo boys vs. 38 million in Afghanistan-Pakistan. Within just three generations, a 400-to-100 Western demographic superiority has declined to a 95-to-100 inferiority. From a military standpoint, this numerical edge is much bigger than it sounds. Of these 38 million young Islamic men, some 25 million are second, third, or fourth sons, a potential military advantage for which the West has no equivalent-save technology. Although another NATO intervention is out of the question, one result of the instability in Pakistan may be an acceleration of the American missile shield being planned for Poland and the Czech Republic. If radical Islam gets control of Pakistan, Europeans who now oppose the missile shield may change their minds. They may realize the greater danger is not a potential nuclear threat from Iran. It's the nuclear weapons that have been in Islamabad's arsenals since 1998. Pakistan shares borders with Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, China and India, together with the disputed Kashmir district. The biggest problem facing Pakistan at present is the war on terror (Taleban) in neighbouring
Afghanistan; this is inextricably linked with domestic politics and will continue to plague present and new governments. China has been a long-standing ally of Pakistan and continues to invest in the region. Pakistan’s relations with India are particularly good at present and undoubtedly a result of pressure (on India) from the US government that has brought these two nuclear powers back from the brink of conflict. The porous border area
With Iran is a constant thorn in the side of the authorities in their efforts to combat the rebels who are using this Balochistan/Iran border area as a base for their continued hostilities against the state. Afghan refugees living in Pakistan can do any thing for money and really destabilize the entire country within days .past example drugs business arms ,car lifting robberies every things brought in Pakistan by these tugs and criminals minded people
Geographic distribution
The majority of southern Pakistan's population lives along the Indus River. In the northern half, most of the population lives about an arc formed by the cities of Faisalabad, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Gujranwala, Sialkot and Peshawar.
Population and growth
• Population: 164,741,942 (July 2007 est.)
• Growth rate: 1.828% (2007 est.)
• Birth rate: 27.74 births/1,000 population (2007 est.)
• Death rate: 8 deaths/1,000 population (2007 est.)
• Net migration rate: -1.24 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2007 est.)
Pakistanis around the world
• United Kingdom 2,300,000 ,United Arab Emirates over 1 million ,Saudi Arabia 900,000 ,United States over 1 million ,Canada 300,000 ,Italy 65,000 ,France 60,000 ,Spain 45,000 (mostly in Catalunya) ,Germany 35,000 ,Norway 40,000 Denmark 28,000 ,Australia 20,000 ,Sweden: over 20,000,Grece 180000 Malaysia 30000, Hongkong ,20000
• These are people which are registered with OPF but same ratio are living legally and illegally in around the world at the momenst more than 20 million pakistan living aboard
• Ethnic groups
Pakistan's ethnic diversity is obvious and yet accurate numbers have been elusive. Most believe that the large majority of Pakistanis belong to the Indo-Iranian ancestral group. There are a substantial number of Iranic peoples and smaller numbers of Brahui These are many ethnic groups: Pakistan's census and rough estimates vary, but the consensus is that the Punjabis are by far the largest group, and that Pukhtuns (also known as Pashtuns and Sindhis are the next two largest groups The Punjabi population is estimated to comprise 44.15% of the national total. The Pukhtuns are the second-largest group at roughly 15.42%, followed by Sindhis at 14.1%. Saraikis a group seen as transitional between Punjabis and Sindhis, make up 10.53% of the population. The remaining groups that comprise large percentages include the Muhajirs (migrants from India) at 7.57% and the Balochis at 3.57%. The other main ethnic groups include the Brahui Kashmiri Hindko Pukhtuns, and the various peoples of the Northern Areas who all together total roughly 4.66% of the total population. The Pukhtun and Baloch represent two of the major populations that are linguistically Iranic, while the Punjabis, Sindhis and Saraikis are the major linguistically Indic groups. Muhajir population is a multi ethnical group, and include mixed blood lines of Indians from India who claim Afghan, Persian, Turk, Mongol, and Arab admixture.In addition, over five million Afghan refugees came to Pakistan during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and it is estimated that over 7 million remain, with a large proportion settling permanently in Pakistan If added to the census, Afghan refugees would boost the percentage of the Pukhtuns and "others" categories. Also, there are considerably colonies of other refugees/migrants settled in Pakistan particularly in Karachi, Lahore as well as in the twin cities of Islamabad/Rawalpindi these include a sizeable Iranian/Persian population, Tajiksfrom both Tajikistan and Afghanistan
Religions
Census data indicates that over 96% of the population are Muslims The Muslims have different schools which are called Madhahib (singular: Madhhab) i.e, schools of jurisprudence (also 'Maktab-e-Fikr' (School of Thought) in Urdu. More than 80% of Pakistani Muslims are Sunni Muslims and there is sizeable minority Shi'a Muslims. Nearly all Pakistani Sunni Muslims belong to the Hanafi school with a small Hanbali school represented by Wahabis and Ahle Hadith The Hanafi school includes the Barelvis and Deobandis schools. Although the majority of Pakistani Shia Muslims belong to Ithna 'ashariyah school, there are significant minorities: Nizari Khoja Ismailis (Aga Khanis) and the smaller Mustaali Dawoodi Bohra and Sulaimani Bohra branches. By one estimate, in Pakistan, Muslims are divided into following schools:The difference among Sunni schools (Hanafi, Maliki Shafi, and Hanbali) are small in practice, and they may pray together in any Sunni Masjid (Mosque). In Pakistan, adherents of the Barelvi and Deobandi schools also pray together in same Masjids.There are small non-Muslim religious groups: Christians, Jews Hindus Sikhs, Parsis, Bahá'ís and others 3%.
LanguagReligious Population In Pakistan
Muslims: 163,930,000 ,Christians: 2,535,000 ,Hindus: 2,400,000 ,Ahmadis:600,000 ,Sikhs: Around 50,000 ,Bahá'ís: Around 30,000 ,Zoroastrian: 5,000 Jews: 2,500
Languages of Pakistan
Bagri,Balochi,Balti,Bateri,Bengali,Bhadrawahi,Brah ui,Brokskat,Burig,Burmese,Burushaski,Chambeali,Chi lliso,Dameli ,Dogri (North Indian) ,Dehawri,Dhakti Domaaki,Gawar,Bati,Ghera,Goaria,Gowro,Gujarati,Goj ri,Gurgula,Hazaragi,Hindko,Jadgali,Jandavr ,Kabutra,Kachchi,Kalashamun,Kalkoti ,Kamviri,Kashmiri Khetrani,Khowar,Kohistani,Makrani,Marwari,Pahari,P othohar,Pashto,Punjabi,Palula Prevalence
According to the census, Pakistanis identified the following languages as their mother tongues [figures rounded to nearest percent]: Punjabi 44%, Pashto 15%, Sindhi 14%, Saraiki 11%, Urdu 8%, Balochi 4%, others 4%The majority of Pakistanis can speak or understand two or more languages,Saraiki,Shina,Sindhi,Tajik,Torwali,Urdu ,Uyghur.Ushojo,Wakhi,Yidgha
Ethnic Tension
Karachi is the business centre of the country and business remains the focus of the city. However, between 1990 and 2007 to date the city experienced over 140 bombings. This
Trend has continued and the most recent analysis of criminal and terrorist trends in Karachi shows a steady increase in security incidents and associated violence. This city reports 40% higher than any other city in Pakistan for acts of violence. Karachi has an estimated population of 17 million and increasing. As economic hardship increases in Pakistan the poorer elements of the population are attracted to the major population centers in pursuit of a better livelihood. This exacerbates existing problems. It is not expected that this situation will change short to medium term. The key security issues facing Karachi are summarized as follows:
• Terrorism
• Criminal Activity
• Civil Unrest
• Ethnic Tension
Ethnic groups in Pakistan generally are categorized according to various combinations of religion, language, and sometimes tribe. Successive waves of migration to Karachi have produced a city of considerable ethnic diversity. After the division of the Indian subcontinent in 1947 the city's indigenous Sindhhi population was overtaken by
Urdu-speaking refugees (Muhajirs). In the 1960s the government's green revolution and industrialization policies caused a wave of Pashto speakers (Pathan) to move in from Pakistan's Northern provinces. These changes have marginalized Karachi's Sindhhi population both linguistically and culturally. Muhajirs run much of the city's business and industry. The Pathan makes up the majority of the working class and has gained a virtual monopoly over Karachi's transport sector. Retaining deeply rooted tribal traditions and
Support systems, they are in effect a separate state within the city. The Sindhhi minority dominates government and educational institutions through a system of quotas. Rivalries among these groups are common and flow largely from the positions in society that the groups occupy. The presence of contending religious sects further compounds conflict; Shia-Sunni confrontations occur with almost ritualized regularity. See the tension grow up when entire leadership sunni tehrik was eliminated in bomb blast and other ethnics conflict happen when PRO MUSSRAFF party MQM killed more than 100 people on the eve of ex chief justice vist to Karachi high court in 2007 .now again tension grip on 28 December on the tragic death of Benazir Bhutto MORE than 45 people alone killed in Karachi and billion of rupees property was burnt to ass .after 2008 election again tension is gripping between sindhi and Urdu speaking is highest point now
Risk Assessment (Lahore)
According to the 1998 census, Lahore's population was nearly 6.8 million. Mid 2006 government estimates now put the population at somewhere around 10 million, which makes it the second largest city in Pakistan. It is considered to be one of the thirty largest cities of the world. Many languages are spoken in Lahore; including Punjabi, Urdu, Pashto and English. According to the 1998 census, 96% of Lahore's population is
Muslim. Others include Christians, Qadiani's and small numbers of Hindus and Sikhs. Pakistan has suffered from a number of natural disasters recently. The earthquake in October 2005, which killed around 70,000 people and injured over a 100,000, exposed the government’s inability to respond to the people’s needs effectively. This devastation affected large parts of the mountainous region in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP). The Jihadists took full advantage of this, pulling people from the rubble and taking them to their hospitals. This enabled those groups to consolidate and even expand the scale of their organizations in the area. This was a well-orchestrated ‘hearts and minds’ campaign on behalf of these groups whilst the international relief organizations were left insecure by the Jihadists’ overwhelming presence. The second major event came in the form of cyclone Yemyin which hit the southern coastline of Pakistan in July
2007. This particular event killed 380 people, displaced over 300,000 and affected 2.5 million due to extensive flooding. Here the devastation presented a different set of circumstances; widespread flooding left people without clean water, food, shelter and medical assistance. Diseases were a real and present danger and presented the
authorities with the same logistical problems as seen in the earthquake emergency in 2005. Karachi suffered some effects from the cyclone; mainly flooding and power supply outages due to storm damage. This compounded an ongoing problem, which had earlier resulted in rioting mobs protesting about the lack of power supply to their homes during the high summer temperatures prior to the cyclone. The risks to business and employees are obvious and maintaining business continuity can be extremely problematic. It is important to have identified the business risks and to have the procedures and contingencies in place. The inability of the authorities to react and bring to bear the resources needed to respond to emergencies as well as the lack of infrastructure to administer aid will result in a populous that will take things into their own hands. Businesses should be appropriately prepared. if we don’t think about 4 to 5 million time bomb living in Pakistan (afghan)refugees, it’s will be more dangerous war escalating efforts need to solve such biggest issue we are facing in these days
usman karim based in Lahore Pakistan
lmno25@hotmail.com