Editorial: President Obama and Pakistan

arsa · #1 Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Mr Barack Obama, the new American president, is expected to bring about changes in the foreign policy of his predecessor, President George W Bush. The most prominent item in Mr Obama’s agenda of change is to gradually switch off the war in Iraq and reinforce the NATO-ISAF military presence in Afghanistan. But most Pakistanis don’t think that is a good idea because they think the US should just pack up and leave the region to its devices.

However, at the policy level in Pakistan, things are not so simply defined. The Obama administration will come in armed with Vice-President Joe Biden’s $1.5 billion a year for economic and social development in Pakistan. Mr Obama’s reading of the deteriorating Afghan crisis also highlights his priority of “human development” there. In addition to sending 30,000 more American troops to Afghanistan he is expected to focus on the infrastructure of the country.

His earliest line on Pakistan was simplistic: an invasion of the tribal areas if Pakistan could not go after Al Qaeda on its territory. But that has changed a bit and now it is the “prevention of Al Qaeda from preparing and launching another attack on the United States”. This is supposed to be the crux of his policy of changing President Bush’s obsession with Iraq and bringing it around to the original anti-terrorist focus. But Iraq will continue to be strategically important, more so in proportion as it becomes pacified and amenable to economic function.

Mr Obama may find some resistance inside NATO on the subject of carrying out anti-terrorism activities in Afghanistan. The last summit in Bucharest in April 2008 was reported optimistically by the western press, but apart from disagreement over the candidacy of Georgia and Ukraine as future members of NATO, there were differences of opinion over Afghanistan, the possible future enhancement of NATO troops and their placement nearer the frontline positions there. The US policy on Afghanistan is expected to become crystallised after the next NATO summit in Germany in April this year when a recession-hit Europe is asked to send more troops and spend more money on Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s status for the generality of Americans is nearer to the pain that comes from persistent migraine, but President Obama has begun by focusing on the capacity-building of the state for facing up to terrorism. An American package has enabled army operations through which Pakistan is so far keeping the Taliban from breaking out of its fastness of the Tribal Areas into the rest of Pakistan, but an unravelling economy undermines anything that Pakistan may do to stop the retreat of the state in the face of violence. In the coming days, as its industries pack up and the armies of the unemployed increase, Pakistan will need crucial external help to keep its minimal economy going.

There will be problems no doubt, especially in relation to Pakistan’s and India’s willingness to reengage in peace talks, not merely to resolve old disputes but to move quickly to trade and cultural relations. Pakistan’s growing suspicion of a US-Indian “conspiracy” to beat down Pakistan and get hold of its nuclear assets is going to throw up psychological barriers. These barriers also include Pakistan’s perception that a withdrawal of NATO-ISAF forces from Afghanistan will bring immediate peace to its Tribal Areas where the entrenched warlords will gracefully bow out to allow Pakistan to re-establish its writ of the state there.

The biggest problem will not emanate so much from Washington as from Islamabad where politics has once again become conflictual, with politicians going back to their reflex of toppling elected governments and inviting the army to find solutions which they are in the process of destroying today. *

Second Editorial: Politics of the Indian ‘dossier’ goes haywire

India sent Pakistan a dossier of its investigation into the Mumbai terrorist attack and said it was sufficient “evidence” for prosecution. But Pakistan said it was merely “information” that needed to be investigated further. India then got offended and insisted it was “evidence” and that Pakistan should hand over the culprits. Pakistan said it would not do so under any circumstances. Indian leaders vacillated between the stances that Pakistani agencies were involved and not involved. Not used to international “interference”, India was also put off by its friends in the West, especially Britain, who don’t agree with its point of view.

But India’s western friends, who have to be Pakistan’s friends too, are convinced by the dossier that the mischief sprang from within Pakistan and that Islamabad should now pull up its socks and bring the culprits to justice, implying that it should “clean up its act” too by reforming its internal system. Pakistan was going soft facing up to India but began to perk up again after statements from the West that India should be moderate in its approach. Now the president and the prime minister have both issued statements of mild reprimand to India for being too aggressive and warlike.

Inside India, politics is not helping its stance on the Mumbai attack either. The BJP Chief Minister of Gujarat, Narendra Modi, has jumped into the Indo-Pak fray, saying the dossier is hardly “evidence” and is asking some questions about how evidence is arrived at in the court of law in India. Many Indians are outraged that the BJP leader should come out agreeing with Pakistan. The BJP itself may question his wisdom on the eve of elections that require a hawkish anti-Pakistan posture from all Indian politicians. Meanwhile, Pakistani TV channels have gone back to wondering if Ajmal Kasab is a Pakistani after all.

The dossier was given another kick by the premier American think tank Rand Corporation when it opined that the terrorists who attacked Mumbai on November 26 could also have received help from inside India: “The focus on Pakistan should not obscure the fact that the terrorists likely had help from inside India. Local radicalisation is a major goal of the terrorists, and will be a major political and social challenge for India”. The Indian “dossier policy” may have been dented a bit, but, for those who may want to use it for case-building against India, what Rand said next may be worrisome: “Thus far, Indian and American officials recognise that Pakistan’s civilian government does not control the policies that its military and intelligence agency hold toward militant groups operating in and from Pakistan
Daily News

Thread Tools	Search this Thread
Show Printable Version Email this Page	Search this Thread: Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Ahmed Quraishi	Princess Royal	News & Articles	9	Tuesday, December 29, 2009 11:27 AM
Important topics for current affair 2009	Noor_2009	Current Affairs	13	Sunday, April 19, 2009 12:03 PM
FPSC Recruitment Tests	safdarmehmood	General Knowledge, Quizzes, IQ Tests	2	Sunday, January 25, 2009 05:38 PM
Obama, Pakistan and Afghanistan	arsa	News & Articles	0	Friday, January 23, 2009 08:46 PM
Editorial: American drones and Taliban terrorism	arsa	News & Articles	0	Thursday, January 22, 2009 06:38 PM