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Old Saturday, February 21, 2009
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Default American and NATO going to pay high price in Afghanistan and Iraq?

What Model Should Iraq Follow after U.S. Forces Withdraw?

Kingdom Saudi Arabia is going to lose one more ally Bahrain to Shia Endowment of Iran. New statements made by Iranian officials claiming that Bahrain is part of the Iranian territories. Ali Akbar Nateq Noori, a former Iranian speaker of the house who is now an adviser to the country’s supreme leader, reportedly claimed Bahrain as Iran’s 14th province. The Shah dropped Iran's claim on Bahrain in January 1969, in an effort to show accommodation and stave off strong condemnations of his military takeover of Abu Musa UAE Island.

More NATO and U.S. soldiers were killed in combat than in 2007. U.S. combat deaths totalled 133 compared to 83 the year before in Afghanistan .The war in Afghanistan and Iraq is going to be deadly and cost USA such horrible and Catastrophe impact if USA and NATO joint hand with Iran or try to make a deal with Iran for helping USA and NATO for supply route to Afghanistan. The Arab, Islamic, and international weight of Saudi Arabia is a constant factor. It is an economic and political weight. Obama must know the financial crisis and the Afghan-Pakistani trap which is laid by Sunni Government for (Saudi and their allies) USA to pleasing Iran.

Khairi al-Oraidi, Palestinian ambassador to the UAE, blamed Iran for Palestinian disunity Concern at growing Iranian influence is not confined to the Palestinian sphere. Iran's involvement in Iraqi politics is also being observed with concern throughout the Arab world. Countries with large Shi'ite minorities (or in the case of Bahrain - majorities) have particular cause to keep a close eye on Teheran's "outreach."

Bush Administration Spend one Trillion dollars for Iraq and afghan war, now Obama is going to keep Afghan war looming he is really going in trap laid by Salafist forces and really last nail in American empire. For Iran, both the war in Afghanistan and the one in Iraq have been great news, because they erased two of its neighborhood rivals, and eliminate two natural allies of Kingdom Saudi Arabia in the region.

The war against the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan will be lost by the end of the summer without dramatic changes in counter-insurgency strategy, according to a leading US military expert. The assessment of Col John Nagl, who is consulting the US government as it conducts four separate policy reviews on Afghanistan, comes amid fears that unless the insurgents' advance is halted, Afghanistan will become the new president's Vietnam.33,000 more troops for Afghanistan, more death heading for home.

Approximately 28,300 U.S. troops are in OEF .The second operation is the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), initially established by the UN Security Council at the end of December 2001 to secure Kabul and its surroundings. NATO assumed control of ISAF in 2003. By January 12, 2009, ISAF had around 55,100 troops from 41 countries, with NATO members providing the core of the force. The United States has approximately 19,950 troops in ISAF UK 8,745, Germany 3600, Canda 2, 830, France 2, 785, Others 20,120 troop’s .Along 70,000 Afghan troops and other 50,000 Northern alliance Militia forces.

Coalition Military Fatalities by Year in Afghanistan 21 Feb 2009 USA 23,Nato13 total 36 ,2008 USA,155,NATO 139 total 294.2007 USA 117,NATO 115 TOTAL 232.2006 USA 98, NATO 93 TOTAL 191.2005 USA 99,NATO 31 TOTAL 130.2004 USA 52,NATO 6 TOTAL 58.2003 USA 48,NATO 9 TOTAL 57 .2002 USA 49,NATO 20 TOTAL 69.2001 USA 12 NATO 0 TOTAL 12 .USA TOTAL 653 NATO 426 TOTAL IN AFGHANISTAN IS 1079. 3,665+ wounded (US: 2,514, UK: 145, Canada: 106, Germany: 30, Other: 80+) 92 contractors killed .

Iraq Coalition Casualty Count IN FEB 2009, USA 24, UK 1, Other 0, Total 25
2008, USA 314 UK 4, Other 4, Total 322.2007 USA 904, UK 46, other 10, Total 960. 2006 USA 822, UK 29, Other 21, Total 872 .2005 USA 846 UK 23 Other 28 Total 897.2004 USA 849 UK 22, Other 35 Total 906 .2003 USA 486 UK 49 OTHER 41 TOTAL 586. Total USA death 4245, UK 179, others 39, Total 4563. total days 2162.Avg death 2.11. 80,834 U.S. soldiers had been wounded With this, over 50,000 American soldiers have deserted since the beginning of the conflict in Iraq, as reported by The Pentagon 32,004 US troops Seriously Wounded in Iraq till Jan 2009. Iraqi forces reportedly lost more than 57,000 policemen and more than 48,000 soldiers killed, according to the Wikipedia count

Insurgent groups in Afghanistan al-Qaeda ,IMU ,Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin ,Lashkar-e-Toiba Jaish-e-Mohammed ,Hizbul Mujahideen. Taliban: 7, 0000-10, 0000.Al-Qaeda: 1,200-4,500,Haqqani militia: 25,00,Hezbi Islami: 1,0000 IMU: 5,000-10,000 Mehsud militia: 30,000.After peace agreement in Swat Pakistan all insurgent are moving to Afghanistan for Spring offensive against US and ISAF FORCES.

March 20, 2003 with the invasion of Iraq by a multinational force now led by and composed almost entirely of troops from the United States and United Kingdom. 300,000 invasion, Current 152, 000, troops USA 142,000,UK, 4100,other 900 Current. Peshmerga 50,000 invasion 270,000 current. Contractors*182,000 (118,000 Iraqi, 43,000 Other, 21,000 US Awakening militias 65,000-80,000.Iraqi Security Forces631,000 (Army: 254,000, Police: 227,000, FPS: 150,000)

This important Arab country has become Shia, as a consequence of American intervention. It is the very first Shia Arab country. United States was to facilitate transfer of power from one sect to the other.Iran has mobilized large-scale Shia support for Shia empowerment. Iran's Shia diplomacy in the region also extends to Shia movements that either hold quasi-state power, like the Hezbollah in Lebanon, or that have remained shut out of political power completely, as is the case in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

The Shia government in Iraq is the "turning point" in putting the "Shia factor" at the center of Iran's foreign policy. The "installation of a new generation of friendly elites at the level of states, who have no backgrounds or feeling of enmity toward Iran."

“It is therefore true that Iraq is taking unstable and frail steps forward, but everyone must see it is clearly taking two steps back.” a top commander said his country was going to leave 30,000 US troops in Iraq. Restore the regional balance that was disrupted when Saddam Hussein's regime was uprooted

Saudi, Kuwaiti, and UAE Arabs Sheikh are pouring $billion of dollars in afghan insurgency to bend and give lesson to USA and EU for eradicating their allies and stopping Iran to March toward Bahrain

The history of Iranian support for Shia opponents of the Hussein regime, both before and during the Iran-Iraq war. That support has now paid off in the form of an Iraqi government in which the Shia majority in the country controls state power. The new good News is going to come from Bahrain sooner or later. Iranian-trained political parties and armed formations that still maintain close cooperation with Iran have influential positions in the regime.
Saudi and Bahrainis authority has seen ,One hundred thousand Shia, as much as one-third of the entire Shia population of the country, turned out for a protest rally over the February 2006 bombing of a Shia shrine in Iraq. Shia demonstrators there have displayed pictures of both Iranian and Hezbollah leaders, and the government of Bahrain cites the pro-Iranian fervor of its Shia population as evidence of Iranian subversion.

The Sectarian fighting in Khurram agency Federally Administrated areas in Pakistan was basically one blink picture shown by Iranian backed Shia militia t to USA, that they are soul partner to fight with Taliban insurgency, AL-Qaeda in Afghanistan and global war in terror led by USA and their EU allies against Salafist forces (Sunni) close link with Wahhbia version of Islam in KSA.

The cease fire in SWAT and FATA in Pakistan is a good movie by Saudi government to tackle USA and Iranian influence in Afghanistan, in Persian Gulf and Middle East .Now all the fighter is going back to Afghanistan from Pakistan, and wage a new era of global jihad against SHIA and USA cum EU Alliance.

Saudi intelligence chief Prince Muqrin Bin Abdul Aziz vist Pakistan in January Drones and UAVs Predators attack in Pakistan is also going to bring Pakistan on verge of civil unrest and to rethink Pakistan strategies to cooperate with USA against global war in terror, and shift his polices from hard stance to soft toward his natural ally Taliban.

Saudi and their allies are ready to start a pitch battle with Iran in Iraq and in deep inside Iranian territory through their natural ally Jandollah Balouch Sunni in Sistan Iranian province and Kurds Sunni near to Turkish border..

The map is drawn for fourth Gulf war but this time ally will be changed USA and Iran against Saudi kingdom and their allies.

According to official U.S. military figures reported in the Los Angeles Times on July 15 2007, about 45% of all foreign militants targeting U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians and security forces are from Saudi Arabia. Fighters from the kingdom are believed to have carried out the majority of suicide bombings in Iraq.

Saudi want the Sunni regime reinstalled in Iraq and Afghanistan and stop the Iran (Shia creed) to go beyond the boundaries, SAUDI already send a message to Iran and Damascus (Syria) they will help to overthrow the Syrian government in a month with the help of Sunni majority and Turkey. Another important visitor to Damascus this week was Prince Muqrin, the Saudi intelligence chief passed a direct message to Syria.

In Syria, the ruling elite are Alawite, a Shia- affiliated group with just 15 per cent of the country's people. Alawite domination has bred deep resentment among many of Syria's Sunni Muslims who constitute 70 per cent of the population. Uprisings by Sunni Islamists in the early 1980s were partly fuelled by this sectarian divide .Now kingdom Saudi is going to break the alliance of Iran and Syria by overthrowing the Syrian government is matter of time .

The envoy suggested that any attempt by Hezbollah to take over the Lebanese capital would be dealt with in the same way as if the Saudi capital itself had been attacked. The threat had an instant effect, with a call from the Iranian ambassador in Beirut to the leader of Hezbollah to end the confrontation. 's foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, has been more outspoken, calling on Tehran to stop interfering and urging it to "become part of the solution, not part of the problems of our world".

In late 2006, Syria and Iraq ended a twenty-five-year long break in diplomatic relations, entering into a five-year agreement to cooperate on increasing border control and combating terrorism

The 2007 Congressional Research Service report calls the relationship between the two countries “a marriage of convenience” that stems from geopolitical necessity. In 2004, Syria and Iran signed a mutual defense agreement

Sunni jihadist militants outmaneuvered the Iranians in championing militant Islamism. That “Battle of Islamic Fundamentalisms,” it, was won by Sunnis, far beyond the American godfather's expectations: The Afghan jihad was Osama bin Laden's training ground. As Washington had backed Sunnis against (revolutionary) Shias in the 1980s and 1990s, so it would play Shias against (jihadi) Sunnis after September 11.

According to one estimate, as of early Jan 2009, 1,321 Muslim suicide bombers have blown themselves up in Iraq Sunni insurgent organizations include Ansar al-Islam. Radical groups include Al-Tawhid Wal-Jihad, Jeish al-Taiifa al-Mansoura, Jeish Muhammad, and Black Banner Organization. Sunni insurgent 270,000 Mahdi Army 60,000 al Qaeda/others 1, 3,000, Kurdish Ansar al-Islam 40,000. Ba'athists, Iraqi Nationalist, after American troops with draw from Iraq will be new fighting ground with sunni insurgent from around the world with Shia iran back Militia.

Insurgents dead (post-Saddam): 18,149-23,849 per these reports. 20,429 per U.S. military (Janaury 29 2009)Detainees: 25,000(U.S.-held) 24,200 (Iraqi-held)

Saudi Arabia of regarding Maliki as an Iranian agent and actively working to undermine his government and for offering financial backing to various Sunni groups inside Iraq.

Prime Minister of Iraq Nuri al-Maliki commented on the death of Zarqawi by saying: "Today, Zarqawi has been terminated. Every time a Zarqawi appears we will kill him. We will continue confronting whoever follows his path. It is an open war between us. New war is going to wage after USA and UK withdrawn from Iraq in 2009. Thousand Jordan, Syrian ,Saudi,Yemni and other ready to fight a global war Jihad against Iran.

While parts of the south and east of the country are not under Afghan control, Kabul has remained a government stronghold, Kabul Province saw a 43 percent increase in insurgent-initiated incidents over the past year, according to numbers compiled by Sami Kovanen, a security analyst

In Afghanistan, suicide attacks are a new phenomenon. Before the assassination of Ahmad Shah Massoud on September 9th 2001, the notion that suicide might be used to kill others was considered alien. 2001-2005: 5; 2007, over 160 suicide attacks have been recorded compared to 123 in the whole of 2006, the UN reported in September 2007.but in 2008 the suicide attacks were 180 in Afghanistan

Suicide bombings in Afghanistan have raised twenty over the past four years, with more than 80 percent of the attackers receiving training or shelter in neighboring Pakistan, the UN said in a report 2007. Most attacks in the two countries are carried out by the Afghan Taliban and Baitullah Mehsud's Pakistani Taliban group, Gunaratna

From January of 2005 to March of 2008 Afghanistan IED attacks 18.31, Suicide attacks 8.80% Assassination 1.61% in Iraq IED33.38, Suicide attacks7.26% Assassination 1.58%

"According to ISAF, in 2008, direct fire incidents increased 40 percent and indirect fire incidents increased 27 percent. IED incidents, including discovered IEDs and suicide bombings, increased 26 percent." 'Report on Progress toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan', January 2009, 2002: 22- 2003: 832006: 1,931- 2007: 2,615 - 2008: ~3,295
Strategy page reports that last year 2008, 138 NATO troops were killed in Afghanistan, a rate of 3.45 per thousand troops. But, their analysis shows, barely "a third of the NATO force (mainly British Dutch and Canadian) do most of the fighting. This force suffers a higher combat death rate than U.S. troops. The British death rate was 6 per thousand, the Canadian rate was 11."
The number of roadside bombs doubled in 2008 to 2000 causing many deaths among foreign troops, but many more from the local civilian population.
The possibility of 28 suicides in January and February 2009 Suicides among soldiers in 2008 rose for the fourth year in a row, reaching the highest level in nearly three decades At least 128 soldiers killed themselves last year. Daily Insurgent Attacks, Feb 2004 – 14 Daily Insurgent Attacks, July 2005 - 70, Daily Insurgent Attacks, May 2007 – 163 ,May 2008 190 attacks daily.
Cost of deploying one U.S. soldier for one year in Iraq - $390,000 and costing one troop in Afghanistan is most costly than Iraq.

In 2008, there were 599 bomb blasts and 6,715 Pakistanis lost their lives to terrorism. In 2007, there were 462 bomb blasts and 3,599 Pakistanis had lost their lives to terrorism. 2008 was worse than 2007. In 2003, there were only 2 suicide attacks; 56 suicide attacks in 2007 and 66 suicide attacks in 2008. In 2003, total annual fatalities from terrorist violence stood at 189. In 2004, a total of 863 Pakistanis died, 648 died in 2005, 1,471 in 2006, 3,599 in 2007 and 6,715 died in 2008. Over the 2003-2008 periods, 13,793 precious Pakistani lives have been consumed by terrorist violence

80,000 -10, 0000 Pakistani troops 80,000 Frontier Corps Battling with Insurgency in March 2004–February 2009 Federally Administered Tribal Areas and North-West Frontier Province in Pakistan Ended (as according to the Malakand peace agreement on 17 February, 2009)1,558+ soldiers and policemen killed, 175+ tribesmen killed, 345+ soldiers and policemen captured (official) 5,502+ militants killed 5,676 civilians killed, 27 foreigners killed(11 Frenchmen, 10 Americans, 4 Chinese, 1 Czech, 1 Dane, 1 Pole, 1 Turk and 1 Vietnamese)

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi, al-Qaeda, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan . At least 2 years prior to September 11, the state of Pakistan had lost its writ over some 10,000 square kilometers of physical terrain between Tochi and Gomal rivers Source Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS),

Apparently, General Patraeus's plan in Iraq, called surge, is being implemented in Afghanistan. As it has been realized and acknowledged that the Iraq and Afghan wars cannot be won militarily, the Patraeus plan focuses on reconciliation with the resistance fighters. PML-N Quaid Nawaz Sharif is playing a key role in conjunction with Saudi Arabia in bringing about a negotiated settlement between the Taliban and the Karzai regime to pave the way for withdrawal of the US and Nato forces from Afghanistan
NWFP Governor Owais Ghani, given to an American newspaper, in which he was quoted as saying that the United States should hold negotiations with Mullah Omar. The Taliban are understood to have submitted a list of 11 conditions for ending hostilities, which include demands to be allowed to run key ministries and a programmed withdrawal of western troops.

The new figures mean that the total cost so far of Britain's military engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan since 2001 - not including civil aid money, which also runs into billions of pounds - is now about £14bn. The cost of military operations in Afghanistan is likely to increase further. British defence staff are drawing up contingency plans to send between 1,500 and 3,000 more troops to southern Afghanistan later this year. The cost of Britain's military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq this financial year has soared to more than £4.5bn, an annual increase of more than 50%,.Operations in southern Afghanistan accounted for a little over half, nearly £2.6bn, compared with £1.5bn last year

TOTAL IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN war cost ,Afghanistan 2001-2 US$ 20.8 Billion,2003 US$ 14.3 Billion,2004 US$14.5 Billion,2005 US$20.0 Billion, 2006US$19.0 Billion 2007US$36.9Billion,2008 US$ 36.5Billion,2009 US$15.1 Billion total US$177.5 billion. In Iraq cost of war 2003 US$ 53.0 Billion, 2004 US$ 75.9 billion,2005 US$ 85.5 billion,2006 US$ 101.7 BILLION,2007 US$ 133.6Billion,2008 US$ 158.0 billion,2009 US$ 53.4 billion, Total US$ 661.1 billion . The total war costs could grow to $3.5 trillion by 2017, the committee estimated .the committee estimated $1.3 trillion in war costs by the end of 2008 for Iraq, and the remainder for Afghanistan.

The total war costs could grow to $3.5 trillion by 2017, the committee estimated .the committee estimated $1.3 trillion in war costs by the end of 2008 for Iraq, and the remainder for Afghanistan. The committee calculated the average cost of both wars for a family of four would be $20,900 from 2002 to 2008. The cost for a family of four would go up to $46,400 from 2002 to 2017

Australian Major John Snell, whose country supports the logistics training mission as part of the US-led coalition If we left today they could defend themselves, but they would soon fall apart,’ Snell said

What Model Should Iraq Follow after U.S. Forces Withdraw, the South Korea Model The Lebanon Model ,the Vietnam Model the Bosnia Model The Northern Ireland Model,Iraq surge is just for time being but inside a large Vacuums is still exist.4.5 million people are displaced and not even half million returns to back home after one year patronizing Iraq is safe after Iraqi surge let see the end will be good and great for Afghanistan and Iraqi people. Usman karim based in Lahore Pakistan
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